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Syracuse Orange
2012-13: 30-10 (11-7 Big East)
In-conference offense: 1.04 points per possession (5th, Big East)
In-conference defense: 0.97 points allowed per possession (5th, Big East)
Syracuse was a mediocre regular-season team in 2012-13, one that went 4-5 on the road in Big East play and lost two games to Georgetown by a combined total of 33 points. None of which mattered, of course, when April rolled around and the Orange were playing the
Michigan Wolverines tight into the 40th minute of a national semifinal in Atlanta.
Projected starting lineup
Pos. Name Year
Rakeem Christmas Jr.
DaJuan Coleman Soph.
C.J. Fair Sr.
Michael Gbinije Soph.
G
Tyler Ennis Fr.
Jim Boeheim's team made the Final Four because what had previously been a pretty good defense achieved an entirely new and incredible level during the NCAA tournament.
Part of that transformation was simple luck. The 2-3 zone tends to push opponents into launching more 3s than they otherwise would, and, as it happens, Montana, California, Indiana and Marquette shot a combined 14-of-91 from beyond the arc.
The length and athleticism of the Orange on defense no doubt helped those figures along, but keep in mind, over the past five seasons a series of long and athletic Syracuse defenses have allowed the Big East to shoot 31 percent from beyond the arc. Roughly to the extent that 15 percent 3-point shooting is even worse than 31 percent shooting, the Orange might fairly be said to have caught a break.
Of course, deserving teams can catch some good breaks, and that's precisely what happened with the Syracuse defense. Boeheim's team held its first four tournament opponents to 39 percent 2-point shooting, and the most impressive thing about that figure is that it was recorded in a bracket that had held to form. The Orange recorded these incredible numbers against a No. 1 seed (the Hoosiers) and the Big East's No. 1-ranked offense during the regular season (the Golden Eagles). Boeheim's defense peaked at the perfect time.
The Orange were able to dominate on defense despite another season of relatively meager results on the boards. It is, of course, widely believed that zone defenses aren't very good at rebounding, and Syracuse has certainly done its bit in helping this belief along. Look no further than 2011-12, when an otherwise outstanding 17-1 Big East team rebounded a truly pathetic 59.8 percent of its conference opponents' missed shots. Last season was somewhat better on that front (63.4) but still nothing to write home about.
Fortunately, Syracuse has been playing zone since the Carter administration, enabling us to study how much of this is really the scheme and how much is the personnel. Turns out some of it is the personnel -- just ask
C.J. Fair about his freshman season. That 2010-11 Syracuse team rode the rebounding of Rick Jackson to a very normal performance on the defensive glass (sixth-best in Big East play).
Still, in conference play the Orange's defensive rebounding has ranked in the top half of the league just twice over the past seven seasons, strongly suggesting that there is indeed a schematic component underlying some of this ugliness. The zone doesn't preordain awful rebounding, but it does place a higher priority on other facets of defense. It's unlikely we'll see this program rank in the ACC's top four in defensive rebounding anytime soon.
Syracuse arrives in its new league with Brandon Triche and James Southerland having graduated. Additionally, Michael Carter-Williams now plies his trade on behalf of the NBA's Philadelphia 76ers. Losing MCW is a blow not only on offense, but also on defense, where the point guard posted an outstanding steal rate. As for the players who remain in upstate New York, get used to seeing them in Syracuse uniforms. With a few exceptions such as Fair and senior
Baye Moussa Keita Boeheim will introduce his program to the ACC with a rotation that's almost Calipari-heavy on underclassmen.
Fair's game might not appear especially dazzling to the naked eye, but looks can be deceiving. Boeheim's senior has always been trustworthy with the ball, and that lack of turnovers translates into points on the board. Fair also developed perimeter range last season, hitting 47 percent of his rare (64) 3-point attempts. He will likely be this team's leading scorer.
Joining Fair on the back line of the 2-3 will be
DaJuan Coleman and
Rakeem Christmas. Coleman was a starter as a freshman until his season was effectively ended by surgery in January to repair a torn meniscus. (Boeheim did subsequently seize the chance to give Coleman 15 minutes of garbage time against Montana in the round of 64.) His performance on the defensive glass was especially encouraging, but Coleman's offense is still very much a work in progress, starting with 46 percent shooting at the line. When he made two consecutive free throws in summer league action, a Syracuse beat writer uploaded the video. Newsworthy, indeed.
An outstanding shot-blocker and good offensive rebounder, Christmas' value to his team is correlated more or less directly to his minutes. This season his goal should be to drive his dwindling foul rate down even further. When Christmas or Coleman does get into foul trouble or just needs a break, look for Keita and sophomore
Jerami Grant. Keita's a shot-blocker who last season also made his presence felt on the offensive glass. Grant was a top-40 prospect out of high school, and he inherited Coleman's starting slot after the latter player underwent surgery. Nominally a power forward, Grant never shot the ball as a freshman and was a nonfactor on the defensive glass. Like Coleman, he was also a liability at the line (56 percent).
The top of the zone will be held down by
Michael Gbinije and
Tyler Ennis. At Duke in 2011-12, Gbinije couldn't crack the rotation as a 6-foot-7 small forward, but his size as either a 2 or a 3 could make him an excellent fit at Syracuse, particularly if he can hit his 3s. (Syracuse officially lists Gbinije as a forward. Meanwhile Boeheim has speculated about giving him minutes at point guard. It might be time to abolish position listings altogether.)
Ennis is a scoring point guard who averaged 21 points a game on 50 percent 2-point shooting for Canada at the U-19 World Championships over the summer. Boeheim says Syracuse might run fewer pick-and-rolls with Ennis and Gbinije than what we saw from the Orange last season. Further backcourt depth will be provided by sophomore
Trevor Cooney. A spot-up shooter whose 3s didn't fall last season (27 percent), Cooney will have another go at the same gig as a sophomore. He did make two big 3s in the 58-55 overtime win against Georgetown in the Big East tournament semifinals.
The Syracuse zone will continue to work its magic, and the Orange D might even benefit from facing conference opponents that haven't yet logged many (or any) possessions against Boeheim. Nevertheless, the Orange project to be one step down from the ACC's top teams in 2013-14. In particular, Fair will need help on offense from teammates who without exception will be entirely new to the role of Division I featured scorer.