Everyones favorite statman doesn't think much of SU
- Thread starter GoSU96
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orange_in_VA
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Based on his projected rating, if I'm reading that right, he thinks we'll be 9-3. Am I wrong?
Seems pretty fair
LeMoyneCuse
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I need to study his formula. He works recruiting stars into it. I'm not sure how much impact that has.
RandomGuy
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Here's his projected s+p. Hah.
Our offense is 59.
www.sbnation.com
Our offense is 59.
2019’s projected 130-team S&P+ rankings, from Bama to UTEP
Here are the three pieces used to create these projections, along with some more notes at the bottom.
www.sbnation.com
sufandu
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The idea of a stat nerd making projections is funny. Stats are absolutely meaningless until you have an adequate sample. There is literally no sample yet because no games have been played with the current rosters and there is too much player turnover in college sports. This is stupid.
721Comstock
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Agreed - unless they airlifted an entire experienced P5 OLine in, then they’re still just as screwed as last season.
Doesn’t matter how many 4-5* stud recruits you have across your roster, if your QB spends every game running for his life, or on his arse.
Alton & Kendall will beg to differ with the “FSU will be much better” projection.
MadNY3
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FSU is not far off. Change of coaching is going to have moments. They have talent. Let's not get beer goggles on that we are easily a 9-3/10-2 team in the ACC. FSU looms...
FRANKIEFAN
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Good this guy annoys me I hate reading stat oriented previews takes the fun out of it for me. People laughing at FSU might want to dial it in though they lost close games as a preseason top 10 team with a target on their back and as we all know the ‘bad’ teams in the ACC aren’t that bad. I tend to agree that FSU won’t be any better but their D could slug out 9/10 wins. Weird coaching staff and something is wrong down there but I don’t think everyone will be gunning for them as a top 10 scalp and bringing their A game like they did last year. Ville is the team I think has no shot at a quick turnaround and will suffer repeated beat downs.
PAcuse
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Sure they are a looming sleeping giant, but no way they take the jump like this duder things. Still a train wreck down that way...
Trueblue25
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Only stat I care about is double-ya’s
longislandcuse
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If recruiting stars are factored in, then i'm not loving this formula. They do matter, if you're getting 4&5 stars. We're not there yet, but do have a system/program that can take the right 3 star guys and develop them into big time talents. We've already started to see some of the results of that and I expect it to continue into this year.
That being said, people are definitely sleeping on FSU (imo). I'd be surprised if they didn't crack the Top 25 at some point this year.. Hopefully right before we play them to give us another big time game.
djorange1989
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I believe everyone's favorite statman had us going 5-7 or 6-6 last year, so he can stick it
djorange1989
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Here's his projected s+p. Hah.
Our offense is 59.
2019’s projected 130-team S&P+ rankings, from Bama to UTEP
Here are the three pieces used to create these projections, along with some more notes at the bottom.
I know we lost Dungey, but a fourth year Dino Babers offense with the weapons we have as 59th is a joke. Yeah we also lost Custis and Strickland, but they are being replaced by Jackson and Adams who didn't have any regular season stats to lean on, but anyone except a computer can see how talented both are. and then pretty much everyone else is back.
RandomGuy
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He says 1 year over achieving is possible, but extremely difficult to repeat. With his formula being weighted to history/recruit ranking it is difficult to improve. Folks with eyes feel differently. Let his slide rule doubt us. Then we hit him over the head with it, at the end of the year.
qdawgg
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Depends on whether they say what you want them to say.
StopCoolio
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Any of the statistical prediction models always look at a few things not in our favor:
-Turnovers are fluky and big swings in turnovers are generally not sustainable from one year to the next.
-These models all seem generally skeptical of teams that go from 4 wins to 10 wins in one year.
-I'm guessing most of them see a senior QB of a 10 win team leaving and ding them.
I guess my argument would be...we really don't need that many turnovers again, the OOC will make it easier to get to a higher win total and I think the offense will be better as a whole with Devito.
We got 10 wins with a very limited WR corps. Taj did what he could as a true freshman and Custis resurrected his career, but let's be honest, we kind of patched that group together. Now this year we go with basically the same group, but they're all a year older. Add Trishton Jackson, the freshmen, etc., and a QB with big arm talent to get them the ball and we're going to be a lot better. We won't have an all time great in Dungey running it, but I don't think we're going to need it. Predictive models haven't seen this kid throw a football.
I appreciate Dontae Strickland and everything he did but if we farm out his 120 carries to Abdul Adams, Moe Neal, Jawhar Jordan, etc., we're going to be better for it.
Lots of games our offense felt kind of bla for most of the game. Louisville comes to mind and at the end you look up and we have 60 points and won by like 40. If you're leaving meat on the bone and scoring 60, even against crummy teams, this is a good sign to me. When you don't need your A game to score 60 and win by 40, the margins are large and you'll find yourself in less close games where a few plays can mean a loss.
These models also aren't going to factor in the Dome, which is going to have thousands of more people in it every week than it did last year...and we didn't lose a game at home. This team(big passing game, high tempo, lots of speed, pass rushers, legit secondary) is built for the Dome.
And oh yeah, we might have the best coach in the country.
At the start of last year, I thought that anything from 2018 was gravy because 2019 would be the year it all came together, so we were a year ahead of schedule to me. Not wavering on that.
-Turnovers are fluky and big swings in turnovers are generally not sustainable from one year to the next.
-These models all seem generally skeptical of teams that go from 4 wins to 10 wins in one year.
-I'm guessing most of them see a senior QB of a 10 win team leaving and ding them.
I guess my argument would be...we really don't need that many turnovers again, the OOC will make it easier to get to a higher win total and I think the offense will be better as a whole with Devito.
We got 10 wins with a very limited WR corps. Taj did what he could as a true freshman and Custis resurrected his career, but let's be honest, we kind of patched that group together. Now this year we go with basically the same group, but they're all a year older. Add Trishton Jackson, the freshmen, etc., and a QB with big arm talent to get them the ball and we're going to be a lot better. We won't have an all time great in Dungey running it, but I don't think we're going to need it. Predictive models haven't seen this kid throw a football.
I appreciate Dontae Strickland and everything he did but if we farm out his 120 carries to Abdul Adams, Moe Neal, Jawhar Jordan, etc., we're going to be better for it.
Lots of games our offense felt kind of bla for most of the game. Louisville comes to mind and at the end you look up and we have 60 points and won by like 40. If you're leaving meat on the bone and scoring 60, even against crummy teams, this is a good sign to me. When you don't need your A game to score 60 and win by 40, the margins are large and you'll find yourself in less close games where a few plays can mean a loss.
These models also aren't going to factor in the Dome, which is going to have thousands of more people in it every week than it did last year...and we didn't lose a game at home. This team(big passing game, high tempo, lots of speed, pass rushers, legit secondary) is built for the Dome.
And oh yeah, we might have the best coach in the country.
At the start of last year, I thought that anything from 2018 was gravy because 2019 would be the year it all came together, so we were a year ahead of schedule to me. Not wavering on that.
OrangeDW
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We beat them for I think the first time ever last year, and some are acting like they’re a joke. I’m not buying it. At FSU will be a tough game, regardless of how much of a train wreck they were last year.
I think we can win it, absolutely. But some should probably stop acting like they’re a joke. We went from 4-8 to 10-3 in one season. They’re probably a couple years away from a 10-3 type season being likely(provided their coaching staff is legit like ours), but I won’t be surprised at all if they’re a bowl team and one of our toughest games.
HOFCeluck
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This is a big one. I would expect a regression to the mean in 2019 and I’m not sure how that affects our win total.
OrangeDW
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Agreed. Good post.
The fact that Adams and Jackson were able to come in and score a bunch of touchdowns in the only game they played tells me a lot about how much better our offense can be in the coming years. And that’s not even accounting for Devito’s upside as a passer.
longislandcuse
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It’s not just “board hype”... Many publications have us preseason Top 20.
I don’t know anything about him, and I’m sure he does awesome research, but if his system is predicated upon history, recruiting rankings and the elimination of a potential fluke season, it’s probably right more often than not but there are exceptions... Eventually there will be programs that make a jump, and his eval would seem to dump on said program until there is sustained success on the field and in recruiting.
longislandcuse
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Turnovers are certainly flukey, but you can do certain things to increase your odds of being a turnover forcing team.
1) Stop the run = More 2nd/3rd and long passing attempts.
2) Rush the passer = Speed up the QB’s decision making.
3) Score = Put the pressure on the opponent to come from behind
4) Ballhawk ( Safeties with a knack for the ball and a defense that is taught to strip-tackle)
Not sure how our run defense is looking, but I’m pretty confident in the other three points.
