expectations for conference wins

[Millhouse]

i told kong otto that i'd get the numbers of teams who win 5 in conference

The numbers after each team is their total wins. Average 10. Median 10. only 2 out of 23 of those teams have less than 8 wins. only 4 out of 23 have less than 9

Out of conference is easier than in conference when you're a p5 team. 7 win teams are probably not going to be great in conference. We went 4-3 in a bad conference in 2010

2022
Clemson 11 FSU 10 Atlantic
Duke 9 UNC 9 Pitt 9 Coastal

2021
Wake 11 Clemson 10 NC St 9
Pitt 11 Miami 7

2020 to hell with 2020

2019
Clemson 14 Louisville 8
Virginia 9 VT 8

2018
Clemson 15 SU 10
Pitt 7

2017
Clemson 12 NC St 9
Miami 10

2016
Clemson 14 Louisville 9
VT 10



big east
1999, we went 3-4 in conference
2001, 6-1
2004, 4-2
2010, 4-3
2012, 5-2
acc
2013, 4-4
2018, 6-2
2022, 4-4
2023 at best could be 3-5

2012 should've been better than 8-5 but it's remembered fondly, similar to 2001 and 2018.

Expecting 5 conference wins is a lot considering the only years we do it are really good years.

 

[Scooch]

If we expected 3 we’d be batting a robust .250 over the past 8 years.

 

[Entropic]

My expectations are .500. With the proper OOC and a 50% win rate you are looking at 8 win seasons and a bowl game every year. It isn't an incredible achievement an maybe you sneak a win from a big boy from time to time and get 9-10 win seasons.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Who is expecting 5 conference Ws?

 

[Millhouse]

Who is expecting 5 conference Ws?

Hopefully nobody

Last year was a 4 win conference season. Did last year meet your expectations?

Things are better than they were from 2019 to 2021. It's like people expected more from the last two years to make up for those 3 years. I throw out 2020 but 2019 and 2021 were pretty forgettable and bad.

I just don't think this is an in-season firing situation. You move on or don't after the season if the year is ordinary and you pull the trigger in season if it's a disaster which i don't think you can say this season is.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I just took a look at the next 7 years and IMO 25 Ws should be the minimum expectation. That is a 3.5 W and 4.5 L average.

My comment on Dino this year is that you do not reward the guy for going 2-6 in the ACC with those 2 Ws being over 1-7 ACC teams. Especially when we were 4-4 last season.

 

[Millhouse]

I just took a look at the next 7 years and IMO 25 Ws should be the minimum expectation. That is a 3.5 W and 4.5 L average.

My comment on Dino this year is that you do not reward the guy for going 2-6 in the ACC with those 2 Ws being over 1-7 ACC teams. Especially when we were 4-4 last season.

I'm saying you wait and see what his record is.

it might be 3-5. and then your average for two years is 3.5 and 4.5

Everyone wanted him fired early because they worried he might win.

Fire people because you worry they'll lose

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I'm saying you wait and see what his record is.

it might be 3-5. and then your average for two years is 3.5 and 4.5

Everyone wanted him fired early because they worried he might win.

Fire people because you worry they'll lose

Sure if he wins the next two and you completely ignore the first 7 years he will be at a 3.5 W average.

Again I will go back to the fact that his contract is up after 2024. If his contract ran until 2026 then your criteria for evaluating him changes. This season is a year you need to commit to another 2 years of Dino or move on. If we win the last 2 games of the year, it does not change that fact. Even at 7-5 I do not see the reason to commit another 2 years when taking into account all the relevant factors.

IMO it was time to move on from Dino after VA Tech. Once you decide it is time to move on, there is no reason to keep him. It was not for fear that he would win games which is some weird azz narrative that you have made up in your head.

Him winning out is IMO not enough to save his job and extend him two years. It does not make up for all the negative points.

I don't think BC, Duke, or Wake would even consider bringing Dino back in 2024. So why is it so hard for SU to make the correct decision?

 

[orangenauburn]

4

That puts you at 7-8 wins every year

Anything more than 4 is a nice year

 

[Millhouse]

My expectations are .500. With the proper OOC and a 50% win rate you are looking at 8 win seasons and a bowl game every year. It isn't an incredible achievement an maybe you sneak a win from a big boy from time to time and get 9-10 win seasons.

your expectations
2022 acc teams meeting your expectations
clemson
fsu
lou
nc state
nc
duke
pitt

pitt won't do it this year
duke didn't do it 2021
nc and nc state didn't do it in 2019
louisville didn't do it in 2018

so you want us to be clemson or FSU

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I think we probably need to expect a couple of bad losses every year one of which to a not great team.

No backup QB for 3 years has cost us a lot of wins with Shraders injuries. I know when Devito left the program mid season no one cared but it was a cowardly move by him we let him start the year as #1 and he bails so we have to play Shrader through a serious arm injury.

Last 2 years it was clear that our backup QB was awful and Shrader when he can’t walk or throw was a better option.

Starting next year we no longer have to play a much harder schedule than other ACC schools. 5 or 6 ACC wins becomes a reasonable expectation.

 

[djorange1989]

Now that we are out of the Atlantic, don’t have FSU as an annual rival and the 3 new teams coming in are all reasonable opponents, 4-4 seems like a fair expectation. This year, considering how terrible the conference is overall, 4-4 was reasonable and it isn’t happening. I think Babers should be gone even if we go 7-5, I am just afraid 6-6 will get him a 2 year extension, you can’t bring him back and have him be a lame duck. The way we lost to our opponents during the losing streak buried him in my eyes. And we just plain blew it losing to BC at all, they are crap

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Not counting 2020 since the number of games played was all over the place and Notre Dame was included. Also you need to factor in that the Atlantic was a lot harder that the Coastal. That will make it easier on SU to have more ACC Ws going forward.

ACC in Dino era 4+ W seasons (still some TBD this year too):

7 out of 7: None
6 times: Clemson*, Louisville, VA Tech
5 times: FSU, GA Tech, Miami*, NC State, Pitt
4 times: UNC
3 times: BC*, Wake, UVA
2 times: SU
1 time: Duke*

* team still can get to 4-4 this year

So 9 out of 14 teams had over 50% of their seasons at 4-4 or better. If BC can win at Pitt or home vs Miami, that will make it 10 schools. And to be fair BC, SU, Wake had to deal with Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NC State every year.

I don't think going forward a goal of 4-4 for SU is out of the question. And goal does not mean don't meet it and fired.

 

[Entropic]

your expectations
2022 acc teams meeting your expectations
clemson
fsu
lou
nc state
nc
duke
pitt

pitt won't do it this year
duke didn't do it 2021
nc and nc state didn't do it in 2019
louisville didn't do it in 2018

so you want us to be clemson or FSU

Yes I want us to be better than we are now. If that means being more like Clemson or FSU sure. I don't think it should be too much to ask that we win 50% of our conference games. Your point actually shows that we should be winning more games because there are not many great teams in our conference. Tell me, which conference teams on our schedule in 2024 should we have no chance of winning? They all look like 50/50 games to me. If we show up competent we can win. I want to win 50% of the 50/50 games. We currently lose most of the 50/50 games. Win more games.

You certainly have a way of trying to make ordinary things sound like extraordinary things. Winning 50% of your conference games is not extraordinary. Pointing out when bad teams haven't done it doesn't make a good point. If we can't win half our games in the ACC then we should not be in the ACC.

 

[RandomGuy]

Cuse ACC record:

2016. 2-6
2017. 2-6
2018. 6-2
2019. 2-6
2020. 1-9
2021. 2-6
2022. 4-4
2023. 1-5

Overall: 20-43 (.317)
Remove 2018 (.254)
Remove 2020 (.358)

If we win 1, and lose one. That'll be 5 years of 2-6.

 

[qdawgg]

I'm saying you wait and see what his record is.

it might be 3-5. and then your average for two years is 3.5 and 4.5

Everyone wanted him fired early because they worried he might win.

Fire people because you worry they'll lose

We’re not worried about him losing. He’s been losing since he got here. You’re moving the goalposts.

 

[Millhouse]

We’re not worried about him losing. He’s been losing since he got here. You’re moving the goalposts.

I'm not moving the goalposts. I'm saying you and king otto and the rest of the romper room are lying

 

[qdawgg]

I'm not moving the goalposts. I'm saying you and king otto and the rest of the romper room are lying

I think you’re just posting to post. You had a good run of posting stats 4 times a day when we first hired DB and then it didn’t quite turn out the way you wanted. Now for some reason with DB winning a game against a 2 win team you’re perked up again. Ok.

 

[Millhouse]

I think you’re just posting to post. You had a good run of posting stats 4 times a day when we first hired DB and then it didn’t quite turn out the way you wanted. Now for some reason with DB winning a game against a 2 win team you’re perked up again. Ok.

You can just admit that is why it was so important that he got fired Monday

 

[Entropic]

You can just admit that is why it was so important that he got fired Monday

I'm pretty sure I read people directly saying that they wanted Dino fired ASAP because the remaining games were against bad teams and we may win a couple which would then make it hard to fire Dino because he would get back to back bowl games. That wasn't a secret motivation. It was clearly stated. Keeping a coach because they were able to eek out a couple games against atrociously bad teams was the concern when the historical record of the coach has shown him to be incapable of the job overall.

Fire the coach before he is able to make the 5 game skid of embarrassing football to disappear by winning a couple games against down teams. The interim coach would have gotten those wins as well. Assuming they happen.

 

[RandomGuy]

Conference records of ACC teams that recruit somewhat similar.

Dave Clawson 30-47. 7 Bowls in 9 years
Addazio 22-34. 6 bowls in 7 years
Hafley 12-19. 3 bowls out of 4
Elko. 8-6. 2 bowls out of 2
Bronco 22-27. 3 bowls out of 5
Collins 7-19. No bowls
Elliot 2-11. No bowls.
Babers 20-44. 2 bowls 8 years
Narduzzi 42-30. 6 bowls 9 years

 

[MadNY3]

Cuse ACC record:

2016. 2-6
2017. 2-6
2018. 6-2
2019. 2-6
2020. 1-9
2021. 2-6
2022. 4-4
2023. 1-5

Overall: 20-43 (.317)
Remove 2018 (.254)
Remove 2020 (.358)

If we win 1, and lose one. That'll be 5 years of 2-6.

That is un-good.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm pretty sure I read people directly saying that they wanted Dino fired ASAP because the remaining games were against bad teams and we may win a couple which would then make it hard to fire Dino because he would get back to back bowl games. That wasn't a secret motivation. It was clearly stated. Keeping a coach because they were able to eek out a couple games against atrociously bad teams was the concern when the historical record of the coach has shown him to be incapable of the job overall.

Fire the coach before he is able to make the 5 game skid of embarrassing football to disappear by winning a couple games against down teams. The interim coach would have gotten those wins as well. Assuming they happen.

"It was not for fear that he would win games which is some weird azz narrative that you have made up in your head."

the emotional want me to think they've been clear that they wanted him fired before he won enough games to keep his job , but when I say it, it's a weird narrative

You guys will understand when you get a little more rest and relax

 

[RandomGuy]

That is un-good.

I posted some other ACC records. I was surprised that some coaches that I happen to think are very good? Didn't reach .500 in the ACC (Clawson, Bronco) Love Addazio as an oline coach, but he failed to reach .500, despite 6 out of 7 bowls. Narduzzi and Elko(limited sample) have exceeded their recruiting realities, IMO. Its hard to go .500 in ACC play.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I posted some other ACC records. I was surprised that some coaches that I happen to think are very good? Didn't reach .500 in the ACC (Clawson, Bronco) Love Addazio as an oline coach, but he failed to reach .500, despite 6 out of 7 bowls. Narduzzi and Elko(limited sample) have exceeded their recruiting realities, IMO. Its hard to go .500 in ACC play.

Duke used to beat up in their weak OOC games and get noticed before going 3-5 and no one noticed. Wake and NC State as well.

In Wake’s case they had the difficult Atlantic which kept their record low too.