Expectations in Year 1

[RedtheGOB]

I'll note again that this year 38 Power Five teams made the tourney between at large and auto qualifier bids. That means 49% of Power 5 teams made the tourney. If the field is expanded to 76 next year then it's likely that ~55% of Power 5 teams will make the tourney.

I think people need to take this math into account when setting their expectations. It's likely that it'll be more difficult to NOT make the tourney next year than make it for P5 teams.

Exactly. The 7th-12th teams in the ACC all had a record between 10-8 and 8-10 this year.

We gotta find a way to get to 11+ wins. Even Autry with his mess, lost 4 ACCgames by 1 possession. That would’ve put us tied for 7th in the ACC at 10-8.

Year 1 we’re asking GMac to get us some more Q1 wins, not screw ourselves losing to Q3 teams, and winning a few more of those 1 possession ACC games.

 

[Orangezoo]

I'll note again that this year 38 Power Five teams made the tourney between at large and auto qualifier bids. That means 49% of Power 5 teams made the tourney. If the field is expanded to 76 next year then it's likely that ~55% of Power 5 teams will make the tourney.

I think people need to take this math into account when setting their expectations. It's likely that it'll be more difficult to NOT make the tourney next year than make it for P5 teams.

Bare minimum: Tournament every year , 9 seed or better.

Success : a protected seed every year with sweet 16 or better

This would be realistic in terms of program status historically in being a title contender most years even if not a favorite.

A higher seed with a deeper run would be acceptable of course but being on the bubble should always still be seen as not meeting expectations for the regular season. Based on the above id say that demands top 5 finishes in the ACC every year.

 

[Scooch]

Bare minimum: Tournament every year , 9 seed or better.

Success : a protected seed every year with sweet 16 or better

This would be realistic in terms of program status historically in being a title contender most years even if not a favorite.

A higher seed with a deeper run would be acceptable of course but being on the bubble should always still be seen as not meeting expectations for the regular season. Based on the above id say that demands top 5 finishes in the ACC every year.

I guarantee that a lot of long timers here will read this and mutter to themselves that it’s not realistic. They’ll think it’s unreasonable because NIL and resources and private school in CNY, etc.

If one asks why UConn can have these expectations but SU can’t we’ll hear about public school and losing money. Personally, I think men’s hoops could be a loss leader for SU if that’s what it takes to be elite again. I think the program is that important to the school writ large.

We should have high expectations for SU basketball. The steady erosion of those expectations is why we became an irrelevant program over the past decade.

 

[MikeSU02]

I guarantee that a lot of long timers here will read this and mutter to themselves that it’s not realistic. They’ll think it’s unreasonable because NIL and resources and private school in CNY, etc.

If one asks why UConn can have these expectations but SU can’t we’ll hear about public school and losing money. Personally, I think men’s hoops could be a loss leader for SU if that’s what it takes to be elite again. I think the program is that important to the school writ large.

We should have high expectations for SU basketball. The steady erosion of those expectations is why we became an irrelevant program over the past decade.

This year has to be in the NCAAT, no play in game.

When GMac has his sea legs in year 2, the expectation should always be S16. I get that won't happy every year. We'll flame out, bad shooting, etc. Happens.

But this year is NCAAT. Next year and onwards the goal has to be S16 or bust.

Top tier all time teams measure success by Final Fours. We are the next tier down. We can measure it by S16s.

And, again, I would imagine that GMac would have this be the expectation. He has already spoke about getting this program back to national prominence, where it belongs and historically has been.

 

[phil77]

I agree if we are getting 12+ million to spend on a roster, then this has to be an NCAA tournament team, period. Not on the bubble, not play in game. That amount of money needs to be a tournament team not for GMac but the program. If you want to continue getting that amount of money, then GMac needs to produce a winner PERIOD. If you don't win, then the money will get less and less, and it will be harder. This is the chance, money isn't an issue, so get players and win.

We also shouldn't be bargain shopping with our cash. We need multiple top-end players to come in here. Not randoms from low-level schools. Some of those are fine but we need to bring in some high level players that will be entering the portal soon from other major schools. We need difference makers.

 

[007]

I'll note again that this year 38 Power Five teams made the tourney between at large and auto qualifier bids. That means 49% of Power 5 teams made the tourney. If the field is expanded to 76 next year then it's likely that ~55% of Power 5 teams will make the tourney.

I think people need to take this math into account when setting their expectations. It's likely that it'll be more difficult to NOT make the tourney next year than make it for P5 teams.

I gave you a like for using Power 5 instead of Power 4.

Making the tournament is a reasonable yearly expectation given the anticipated NIL influx, and much more so if there is expansion. Protected seed, Sweet 16 appearances would be great, but setting that as a "minimum standard" in the Wild West NIL Era seems less realistic.

Be highly competitive in the ACC, make the NCAAT, and have the coaching staff and roster to have a legit chance to beat anyone on a given night would be a refreshing return to brand, IMO.

 

[Orangezoo]

I guarantee that a lot of long timers here will read this and mutter to themselves that it’s not realistic. They’ll think it’s unreasonable because NIL and resources and private school in CNY, etc.

If one asks why UConn can have these expectations but SU can’t we’ll hear about public school and losing money. Personally, I think men’s hoops could be a loss leader for SU if that’s what it takes to be elite again. I think the program is that important to the school writ large.

We should have high expectations for SU basketball. The steady erosion of those expectations is why we became an irrelevant program over the past decade.

You have to be lucky sometimes. UConn got the right hire and then had a monster recruit fall into their laps because he was literally right in their back yard. They found a gem in Murray. There was no foresight with all that. The only thing was that Hurley the nut job also was the far more competitive and passionate Hurley of the bunch as it played out.

Gerry is insanely competitive and also another internal hire. My hope and early optimism is that we got lucky that he is getting the nod despite all the other concerns around it being too incestuous. Different path to get there but hopefully a similar outcome in getting someone who is just different. That article by Carlson shared a little more of what I think everyone will see. My hope is we backed into success with Gerry just like we backed into success with bringing him on board 23 years ago. All the other options were intriguing but the guy with the closest drive and push to succeed to that nut over at UConn I think was quite close all this time.

So our expectations should be we win and win a lot and rekindle what should never have faded. As optimistic as I might be getting , I’m going to be just as critical if this flops early as there is no excuse to miss on the opportunity here.

 

[Blanko97]

i want to add in a quarter finals appearance in the ACCT. Whether it be through a win or a double bye

 

[RF2044]

You have to be lucky sometimes. UConn got the right hire and then had a monster recruit fall into their laps because he was literally right in their back yard. They found a gem in Murray. There was no foresight with all that. The only thing was that Hurley the nut job also was the far more competitive and passionate Hurley of the bunch as it played out.

Gerry is insanely competitive and also another internal hire. My hope and early optimism is that we got lucky that he is getting the nod despite all the other concerns around it being too incestuous. Different path to get there but hopefully a similar outcome in getting someone who is just different. That article by Carlson shared a little more of what I think everyone will see. My hope is we backed into success with Gerry just like we backed into success with bringing him on board 23 years ago. All the other options were intriguing but the guy with the closest drive and push to succeed to that nut over at UConn I think was quite close all this time.

So our expectations should be we win and win a lot and rekindle what should never have faded. As optimistic as I might be getting , I’m going to be just as critical if this flops early as there is no excuse to miss on the opportunity here.

I don't want to turn this into a complaint about landing Gerry.

But I see it a bit differently. Uconn had to replace an icon, went with an internal candidate who had initial success, and then when things got squirrely they broke ties and went out and hired the best external candidate they could.

We had to replace an icon, went with an internal candidate who got progressively worse, and then opted to replace him with ANOTHER internal candidate.

Will be interesting to see if it works, or whether blinders / one great week where Siena peaked at the end of the season swayed the powers that be.

 

[wiseman3]

Making the NCAA tournament is absolutely my expectation. Anything less would be majorly disappointing

Expanding on this, in years past this may have been unreasonable. But in today's world, making the tournament year 1 has been accomplished countless times. All but one new ACC coach this season made the tournament. The "worst" 1st year ACC coach this year would be FSU, who still went 18-15 (10-8) for 8th place in the ACC.

Gerry has the resources, we should have high expectations

 

[Orangezoo]

I agree if we are getting 12+ million to spend on a roster, then this has to be an NCAA tournament team, period. Not on the bubble, not play in game. That amount of money needs to be a tournament team not for GMac but the program. If you want to continue getting that amount of money, then GMac needs to produce a winner PERIOD. If you don't win, then the money will get less and less, and it will be harder. This is the chance, money isn't an issue, so get players and win.

We also shouldn't be bargain shopping with our cash. We need multiple top-end players to come in here. Not randoms from low-level schools. Some of those are fine but we need to bring in some high level players that will be entering the portal soon from other major schools. We need difference makers.

Yeah I read the article bees referenced from Neil Adler for possible portal targets that noted Shelstad ( 3pt shooting still a worry but solid option), Bonke from Charlotte and the SG from Cornell. I’d take all 3 but the Cornell kid best be a reserve shooter and that’s it and not be expensive.

Honestly I’d rather we be the one to go get that Toledo kid who’s got 3 years to play and looks to be highly coveted, not to mention we have connections to that program plus the Murphy as his agent connection.

 

[Orangezoo]

I don't want to turn this into a complaint about landing Gerry.

But I see it a bit differently. Uconn had to replace an icon, went with an internal candidate who had initial success, and then when things got squirrely they broke ties and went out and hired the best external candidate they could.

We had to replace an icon, went with an internal candidate who got progressively worse, and then opted to replace him with ANOTHER internal candidate.

Will be interesting to see if it works, or whether blinders / one great week where Siena peaked at the end of the season swayed the powers that be.

That’s fair and I tried to note it’s not a 1 to 1 being the same thing. Hurley however with what he did at URI, with UConn in conference musical chairs hell, was looking for a coaching lifeline vs a guaranteed champion. Hence my point about finding the right guy at a moment more made of desperation than ingenuity. Different process but possibly a similar (relatively speaking) outcome ? That’s where I am going with it.

 

[phil77]

Yeah I read the article bees referenced from Neil Adler for possible portal targets that noted Shelstad ( 3pt shooting still a worry but solid option), Bonke from Charlotte and the SG from Cornell. I’d take all 3 but the Cornell kid best be a reserve shooter and that’s it and not be expensive.

Honestly I’d rather we be the one to go get that Toledo kid who’s got 3 years to play and looks to be highly coveted, not to mention we have connections to that program plus the Murphy as his agent connection.

Shelstad paired with Doty/Anthony is a terrible combo from a 3-point shooting perspective.

 

[Orangezoo]

Shelstad paired with Doty/Anthony is a terrible combo from a 3-point shooting perspective.

Maybe- he shot 38 pct the year prior and 35 pct as a freshman. Oregon just had an awful year this year it appears. He wouldn’t be my top option that’s for sure…also he’s from Oregon so not sure if he would want to move opposite coast for his final year.

 

[FloridaCuse]

More 9 PM games.

No 9pm games. Few games on The CW.

 

[Blanko97]

No 9pm games. Few games on The CW.

9pm is considered the prime time-slot

 

[FloridaCuse]

9pm is considered the prime time-slot

But not good for drawing hometown crowds. Nor for eyeballs in the east for people who go to bed before 11pm.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

9pm is considered the prime time-slot

9 PM is the new 4 PM.

If you're in Hawaii.

 

[Blanko97]

But not good for drawing hometown crowds. Nor for eyeballs in the east for people who go to bed before 11pm.

i agree, but for some reason ESPN pretends thats a good slot for atlantic teams. at least that used to be the defense.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Shelstad paired with Doty/Anthony is a terrible combo from a 3-point shooting perspective.

Anthony is a bench player. Not a guy we should be considering part of the main rotation by any means.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

Now that we have the NIL money and the coaches, we should be able to compete at the highest level.

What is the expectation for next season? 25 wins? 22 wins?

How much NIL? I’ve only seen “in the game” and references to objectives and plans. How do we know that whatever number is actually amassed is competitive with what other teams are putting together NOW, not last year?

Do we have the coaches already?

My expectation, in any scenario, is a tournament berth. Not a play-in. Pretty simple. And if we get in, a win against any lower seed.

 

[FloridaCuse]

i agree, but for some reason ESPN pretends thats a good slot for atlantic teams. at least that used to be the defense.

Let them keep putting Duke and UNC on then. Not us. High School kids in California want to watch us at 4pm

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I don't understand why the people really excited for GMAC to be coach would have anything other than high expectations.

Otherwise, what is it you actually want - a competitive program, or just a specific guy in charge?

 

[phil77]

Anthony is a bench player. Not a guy we should be considering part of the main rotation by any means.

You think Anthony isn't going to have a role on this team? I think it is crazy to assume he won't.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You think Anthony isn't going to have a role on this team? I think it is crazy to assume he won't.

For some reason a bunch of our fans are convinced guys don't get better.