Expectations in Year 1

[Orangezoo]

I don't understand why the people really excited for GMAC to be coach would have anything other than high expectations.

Otherwise, what is it you actually want - a competitive program, or just a specific guy in charge?

Agreed if it’s about the fit for the program as I see it will hopefully be there is no mediocrity acceptable especially with the amount of money that is being put out there.

I don’t understand why it would be just about the hire and then being ok with winning enough to make the NIT.

 

[DoctahLexus]

You think Anthony isn't going to have a role on this team? I think it is crazy to assume he won't.

If he plays like he did last year, then that role should be at most 5-10 mins a game. I think it is crazy to assume we would want to play someone with his stats from last year without significant improvement. That would ensure another horrible season.

 

[Orangezoo]

For some reason a bunch of our fans are convinced guys don't get better.

Especially a kid who could not have more support and push behind him to improve after a hard finish to his first year. I don’t want to put any expectations on Kiyan but I think he will put the work in and be much improved.

 

[orangefog]

If he plays like he did last year, then that role should be at most 5-10 mins a game. I think it is crazy to assume we would want to play someone with his stats from last year without significant improvement. That would ensure another horrible season.

I'm hoping that the offense next year has no room for someone that played like Kiyan last year. Nothing against him, I think he can fit in a better offense. But, I can't stand that iso-ball crap.

 

[DoctahLexus]

For some reason a bunch of our fans are convinced guys don't get better.

Not saying he won't get better. But IF he does not get significantly better we can't play him. Some guys get better and some don't or only improve a small amount. If he is the latter then we need to treat him like it. 40% fg, 25% from three, 62% from the line, and so bad at defense we would go zone when he was out on the court. These are just the facts. It has to improve a whole lot. Relying on a huge level of improvement is a mistake. Especially when such a big part of the issue is his lack of speed/athleticism. That can be a very difficult area to see significant improvements.

 

[MikeSU02]

I know this article is posted a few times, so sorry for the redundancy: https://www.syracuse.com/orangebask...ll-coach-syracuse-hes-as-real-as-it-gets.html

I think I'm within board regulations to post this much of a snippet from the paywalled article, but you can nuke it if not, but this was of critical importance for next year and our expectations:

Unlike some new-era coaches, McNamara hasn’t completely eliminated mid-range jumpers from his team’s assortment of shot options. The Saints haven’t let it fly from behind the 3-point line at a remarkable rate.

Instead, Gallo said Siena had the MAAC’s most efficient offense because it always maintained strong spacing and had a team-wide understanding of what constituted a good shot.

Siena’s least efficient offensive players had the team’s lowest usage rates last season, an indication that the team wasn’t wasting possessions with low-percentage shots. That did not happen at Syracuse.

The Saints were strong handling the ball and rarely wasted possessions with turnovers. That was another issue for the Orange.

When Siena ran up against the shot clock, Gallo said, the team unselfishly put the ball in the hands of its best playmakers.

“His best and most-efficient players end up taking their most-efficient shots,” Gallo said. “The right guys are taking the right shots at the right spots. Even late-clock you’re at the mercy of Gavin Doty making a play. He puts them in great space. They are simple but effective. ... Gerry put his best players in the best position to succeed.”

The highlighted paragraph is my doing.

In a perfect world, I would like more three point shooting (it just gives defenses more square footage to cover and makes offensive driving lanes wider), so not a fan of the mid range... BUT, the overall focus on efficiency is of key importance.

So expectations next year? Yeah, we're in the NCAAT. And there will never be another situation where we are having a bunch of guys allowed to be volume shooters at inefficient rates.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Consistent top 25 program, “making the tournament” is what we did the last 10 years.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm hoping that the offense next year has no room for someone that played like Kiyan last year. Nothing against him, I think he can fit in a better offense. But, I can't stand that iso-ball crap.

Not saying he won't get better. But IF he does not get significantly better we can't play him. Some guys get better and some don't or only improve a small amount. If he is the latter then we need to treat him like it. 40% fg, 25% from three, 62% from the line, and so bad at defense we would go zone when he was out on the court. These are just the facts. It has to improve a whole lot. Relying on a huge level of improvement is a mistake. Especially when such a big part of the issue is his lack of speed/athleticism. That can be a very difficult area to see significant improvements.

I don't think he's all that far from being really good.

Here's why - I'm chalking the free throw shooting up as an anomaly. It was weird, and we had a lot of weirdness there throughout the roster, and that's going to regress to the mean, which in this case is a really good thing. I expect him to be ~75% next year.

Freshmen are rarely reliable from the floor, especially three point range, but with Kiyan he also had a lot of minutes on, shall we say, offensively challenged lineup, and I think he took that as license to take some bad shots. Supposing Gerry is successful at installing a more disciplined offense, those will be gone and his shooting percentages will increase. I'd like to do a quantitative analysis of this, but it's pretty common for shooting percentages to improve freshman to sophomore year. I expect Anthony will follow the general trend line improving there.

Anthony also saw first hand what this level of basketball about. He's enough of a student of the game to understand where his defense falls short. His trend got worse there as the year progressed, I think as part of the team falling apart. Not what you want to see, but with better effort earlier in the year he wasn't necessarily good but didn't completely suck. Gerry is intended to teach intensity and effort, so that gives Anthony a chance to level up.

But some of his issues were physical, and that's where experience helps too. I expect Kiyan learned he needs to to take his training and weight room work to another level. He likely won't ever have JJ's foot speed, but I doubt he's topped out yet. And, importantly, Melo has the resources to invest in Kiyan improving. He will have every opportunity to get better. And the sophistication of his offensive game shows he is receptive to coaching and training. He does things that are learned, not based solely on natural talent. Apply that to defense and we'll be stronger.

 

[SUFan44]

Tough to know what numbers are real and what numbers aren't.

People on this board have said we have $8-9M this year. Other people externally said that's a little inflated, and we had $6-8.

Moving forward for next year, $8-9M was the report by Norlander @ CBS, and others have stated much more with the possibility of $11-12M.

Rev share will likely be roughly $4.5M, and Lobdell is saying he has a group that is pledging $4-5M. That gets you to the $8-9M number, and you have to hope there are others (Carmelo & Co., possibly) that can create more opportunities.

If the number is $10M+, there's zero reason why we can't expect a Top 25 type team with the expectation of a top 24-30 seed (6-7 seed, minimum) in the NCAA Tournament. I am firmly aware that GMac is a relatively young coach, but he did prove he can win in a tournament-type setting in the MAAC, and while he didn't have a marquee-type win last season or the year prior, in my opinion that can't be an expectation at a school like Siena in the 25th-best conference in the country (out of 31).

Looking at last year's numbers a little bit more, the underlying defensive metrics are actually very good -- 49th in effective FG% defense and top 100 in both 2pt. FG% defense and 3pt. FG% defense. They played at an extremely slow pace which I think was partially due to the lack of depth. The year before, they were middle of the pack.

All of that to say, despite not knowing the roster construct, coaching staff composition, non-conference schedule, or really much of anything, with $9-12M in funding and at least a semblance of a game plan, we should be vastly improved and a tournament team.

If not, I don't think I'd be alone in feeling disappointed and extremely worried.

 

[Orangezoo]

Tough to know what numbers are real and what numbers aren't.

People on this board have said we have $8-9M this year. Other people externally said that's a little inflated, and we had $6-8.

Moving forward for next year, $8-9M was the report by Norlander @ CBS, and others have stated much more with the possibility of $11-12M.

Rev share will likely be roughly $4.5M, and Lobdell is saying he has a group that is pledging $4-5M. That gets you to the $8-9M number, and you have to hope there are others (Carmelo & Co., possibly) that can create more opportunities.

If the number is $10M+, there's zero reason why we can't expect a Top 25 type team with the expectation of a top 24-30 seed (6-7 seed, minimum) in the NCAA Tournament. I am firmly aware that GMac is a relatively young coach, but he did prove he can win in a tournament-type setting in the MAAC, and while he didn't have a marquee-type win last season or the year prior, in my opinion that can't be an expectation at a school like Siena in the 25th-best conference in the country (out of 31).

Looking at last year's numbers a little bit more, the underlying defensive metrics are actually very good -- 49th in effective FG% defense and top 100 in both 2pt. FG% defense and 3pt. FG% defense. They played at an extremely slow pace which I think was partially due to the lack of depth. The year before, they were middle of the pack.

All of that to say, despite not knowing the roster construct, coaching staff composition, non-conference schedule, or really much of anything, with $9-12M in funding and at least a semblance of a game plan, we should be vastly improved and a tournament team.

If not, I don't think I'd be alone in feeling disappointed and extremely worried.

Step 1 - stop giving any credence to what Norlander said.

 

[AZOrange]

I don’t know what the final budget is but if we spend $12mm to “make the tourney” or “compete in the acc” that will be a fail IMO

 

[Knicks411]

Making the tournament should be the minimum.

I know this article is posted a few times, so sorry for the redundancy: Gerry McNamara’s time at Siena offers hints at how he’ll coach Syracuse: ‘He’s as real as it gets’

I think I'm within board regulations to post this much of a snippet from the paywalled article, but you can nuke it if not, but this was of critical importance for next year and our expectations:

Unlike some new-era coaches, McNamara hasn’t completely eliminated mid-range jumpers from his team’s assortment of shot options. The Saints haven’t let it fly from behind the 3-point line at a remarkable rate.

Instead, Gallo said Siena had the MAAC’s most efficient offense because it always maintained strong spacing and had a team-wide understanding of what constituted a good shot.

Siena’s least efficient offensive players had the team’s lowest usage rates last season, an indication that the team wasn’t wasting possessions with low-percentage shots. That did not happen at Syracuse.

The Saints were strong handling the ball and rarely wasted possessions with turnovers. That was another issue for the Orange.

When Siena ran up against the shot clock, Gallo said, the team unselfishly put the ball in the hands of its best playmakers.

“His best and most-efficient players end up taking their most-efficient shots,” Gallo said. “The right guys are taking the right shots at the right spots. Even late-clock you’re at the mercy of Gavin Doty making a play. He puts them in great space. They are simple but effective. ... Gerry put his best players in the best position to succeed.”

The highlighted paragraph is my doing.

In a perfect world, I would like more three point shooting (it just gives defenses more square footage to cover and makes offensive driving lanes wider), so not a fan of the mid range... BUT, the overall focus on efficiency is of key importance.

So expectations next year? Yeah, we're in the NCAAT. And there will never be another situation where we are having a bunch of guys allowed to be volume shooters at inefficient rates.

I struggle a little to reconcile this with a few things

1) the point about turnover; Siena had a 15.8% turnover% this year; we were 16.0%. They played slower so the raw total was lower but on rate basis it's like nothing.
2) The stuff on the shot efficiency; they had one of the lowest rate of 3 point attempts in the country. Their average 2 point fg attempt was 6.5 feet away from the basket; that's 278th in the country. And they were 226th in free throw rate. Where are all these efficient shots coming from?

They did funnel a good amount of shots to Doty, who had solid efficiency for a high usage guy. So that's at least something. Hopefully he can adjust based on his players.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Making the tournament should be the minimum.



I struggle a little to reconcile this with a few things

1) the point about turnover; Siena had a 15.8% turnover% this year; we were 16.0%. They played slower so the raw total was lower but on rate basis it's like nothing.
2) The stuff on the shot efficiency; they had one of the lowest rate of 3 point attempts in the country. Their average 2 point fg attempt was 6.5 feet away from the basket; that's 278th in the country. And they were 226th in free throw rate. Where are all these efficient shots coming from?

They did funnel a good amount of shots to Doty, who had solid efficiency for a high usage guy. So that's at least something. Hopefully he can adjust based on his players.

Spoiler alert - it's going to be an incredible achievement if Doty maintains that efficiency level going from the MAAC to the ACC.

 

[SUFan44]

Step 1 - stop giving any credence to what Norlander said.

I should have been clearer - I was not endorsing that at all. Just simply putting out there what was reported.

I would have to assume, if Lobdell & Co. get to $4-5M, the rev share is $4.5M, that we can get $2-3M more to get us to $11-12M range.

But all of this is really all just speculation really.

 

[Starman]

With the increased field for March Madness, just getting in isn't good enough. My expectation, especially with the money he appears to have for nil, is a single digit seed OR a win a game in the tournament. And if he hits that, more is expected in year 2.

 

[Orangezoo]

Spoiler alert - it's going to be an incredible achievement if Doty maintains that efficiency level going from the MAAC to the ACC.

I don’t think Doty will or should start this year , at least not out of the gate but will make a really good 6th man type given his skillset and how hard he plays. I could see Kiyan making a nice jump all around and developing into a starting level wing. Now that could change as the year progresses or maybe the summer outputs a different outcome and Doty makes a big jump to earn a starting spot.

Some of that, if I follow what is being said about Gerry and how he likes to do things, will heavily depend on who else stays and who comes in via the portal. We have yet to see a single player be tweeted out as leaving or returning.

 

[Orangezoo]

I should have been clearer - I was not endorsing that at all. Just simply putting out there what was reported.

I would have to assume, if Lobdell & Co. get to $4-5M, the rev share is $4.5M, that we can get $2-3M more to get us to $11-12M range.

But all of this is really all just speculation really.

I think it’s a lot more than speculation based on the folks sharing they know. Speculation would be a guess and knowing those who have shared some info - they don’t typically just throw around information that’s a guess.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I don’t think Doty will or should start this year , at least not out of the gate but will make a really good 6th man type given his skillset and how hard he plays. I could see Kiyan making a nice jump all around and developing into a starting level wing. Now that could change as the year progresses or maybe the summer outputs a different outcome and Doty makes a big jump to earn a starting spot.

Some of that, if I follow what is being said about Gerry and how he likes to do things, will heavily depend on who else stays and who comes in via the portal. We have yet to see a single player be tweeted out as leaving or returning.

Seems like a lot of fans have Doty penciled in as a starter already.

 

[Orangezoo]

Seems like a lot of fans have Doty penciled in as a starter already.

Yeah I’ve noticed. If he’s good enough and earns it then fine but I really am not there with penciling anyone in as a starter yet. I’m also with you on thinking people are too low on Kiyan. He has things to learn and get past selfish tendencies but there are not many 6-5 wings with a bag as deep as he has offensively. Kid will only get better drawing fouls and then be able to hit at a good clip.

It really hurt his development that things were so much up in the air with the staff and Red this year- no way around the impacts that has on a freshman.

 

[SUFan44]

I think it’s a lot more than speculation based on the folks sharing they know. Speculation would be a guess and knowing those who have shared some info - they don’t typically just throw around information that’s a guess.

I have seen varied numbers from even those who seem to know. I don't think a singular number is the full truth is my point. There is some fluidity to it.

 

[orangefog]

I have seen varied numbers from even those who seem to know. I don't think a singular number is the full truth is my point. There is some fluidity to it.

It better be 8 numbers.

 

[Jasoncuse]

The expectations have to be make the Tournament and maybe more. Whether that's completely fair to Gmac, I don't know, but with the supposed NIL budget we'll have and that being the main driver for his hiring, comfortably in the Tourney has to be expected (barring injuries).

If all the added funding and hoopla with Gmac's hiring don't result in a successul tourney bid, what exactly should we ever be expecting?

 

[Orangezoo]

I have seen varied numbers from even those who seem to know. I don't think a singular number is the full truth is my point. There is some fluidity to it.

I’ve not seen anyone who is in the know quote under 11.

 

[TrickySU]

When Fran Brown was hired, it was important to have a great first year to prove the concept to recruits...high-level players can come here, be successful, and the program can win 8, 9, 10+ games.

Same is true with Gerry and the basketball team in year one. You have to make the tournament, but like some others have said, I think you need to be safely in the tournament. Show recruits you can win here, be a program people want to play for and be a part of, and give donors the reason to continue giving more money.

 

[Goin' Deep]

Expectations in 2026/27 season.

Team FT % at 72.5% or better.
Siena was 12th in pts. allowed. I want to see CUSE in the top 100.
Speed.
Continued improvement throughout the season.
Average at Christmas...Dome is rockin' by March 1.