Feb 26 - Feb 29 Tracking the Bubble + Games

[bpo57]

This thing's pretty accurate short and long-term. It may come off one or two spots based on other moving parts.

This is from RPIForecast
View attachment 123786

That's not low 30s. And that's a long way to travel just beating BC and CU.

 

[MSOrange]

Palm has us 2nd to last in with his latest bracket this morning playing Texas in a first 4 game.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

 

[SoBeCuse]

Yeah I just can’t process an RPI in the 30s from beating BC and Clemson. Who knows.

The wildcard is how much the committee is going to value the RPI, regardless.

It’s going to be fascinating with SU, Louisville, Texas, Oklahoma, and Providence in particular down the stretch. Those five teams can be IN/OUT any given day. Right now Palm still has (updated an hr ago) SU in a First Four match against Texas. Depending on bid stealers (Penn St. for instance) and such it will be interesting to see if it comes down to Big 12 vs ACC for a couple of the last bids. The Big 12 is stronger than the ACC in almost every metric it seems.

 

[jncuse]

That's not low 30s. And that's a long way to travel just beating BC and CU.

Post #166 - I stated Low to Mid 30's
Post #170 - I stated Low to Mid 30's

35.6 is mid 30's

And that is pretty natural movements when you win 2 games in the RPI... especially a road game has a value of 1.4, and Clemson is currently RPI #10.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah I just can’t process an RPI in the 30s from beating BC and Clemson. Who knows.

The wildcard is how much the committee is going to value the RPI, regardless.

It’s going to be fascinating with SU, Louisville, Texas, Oklahoma, and Providence in particular down the stretch. Those five teams can be IN/OUT any given day. Right now Palm still has (updated an hr ago) SU in a First Four match against Texas. Depending on bid stealers (Penn St. for instance) and such it will be interesting to see if it comes down to Big 12 vs ACC for a couple of the last bids. The Big 12 is stronger than the ACC in almost every metric it seems.

All I can say is I'm a numbers guy (to a fault some will say). but I wouldn't rely on RPI Forecast if it was proving to be out of whack in the past.

I agree with most of your second paragraph except I would add the SEC to the equation. The Big 12 is certainly stronger then the ACC... it's almost impossible for a team to go 8-10 in the B12 and not have a resume that looks tourney worthy.

 

[MSOrange]

All I can say is I'm a numbers guy (to a fault some will say). but I wouldn't rely on RPI Forecast if it was proving to be out of whack in the past.

I agree with most of your second paragraph except I would add the SEC to the equation. The Big 12 is certainly stronger then the ACC... it's almost impossible for a team to go 8-10 in the B12 and not have a resume that looks tourney worthy.

On another note, I think you posted yesterday a list of 4 or 5 teams that we need to win their conf tourney so they don't steal a bid. Can you list those again? I'm usually all over this stuff but needing a little help this year

 

[jncuse]

There were 32 brackets updated this morning. After Alabama, Kansas St, Miss St., and Boise St lost last night. Considers all teams with a current seed above 9.

Out of 58
NC St 58 (avg 9.01)
Arizona St 58 (avg 9.17)
Florida St 57
Missouri 57
USC 55
St Bonaventure 55
Louisville 52
St. Mary's 51
Providence 51
Baylor 48
Alabama 46
Kansas St 45
Texas 37
----------------
UCLA 20
Syracuse 19
Washington 10
Nebraska 7
Marquette 5
Western Kentucky 5
Miss St 3
Temple 3
LSU 2
Utah 2


While some will claim that all these things are based on my opinion, let's remember I am just consolidating consensus data and tracking games to watch. There is no bias or no "know it all" when I do these threads which are meant to follow the action, give you somebody to cheer for, and to understand how strong or not strong the bubble may be.

 

[jncuse]

On another note, I think you posted yesterday a list of 4 or 5 teams that we need to win their conf tourney so they don't steal a bid. Can you list those again? I'm usually all over this stuff but needing a little help this year

Here are the bid stealer risks in my view.

Pac 12 (one of Arizona, USC, or Arizona St must win)
A-10 (one of Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure must win)
MWC - Nevada must win
CUSA - Middle Tennessee St must win
WCC - Gonzaga or St. Mary's must win
MVC - Loyola could get an at large, so best that they win.

Not listing the other conferences as it would be very tough for an outsider to get in from there.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Here are the bid stealer risks in my view.

Pac 12 (one of Arizona, USC, or Arizona St must win)
A-10 (one of Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure must win)
MWC - Nevada must win
CUSA - Middle Tennessee St must win
WCC - Gonzaga or St. Mary's must win
MVC - Loyola could get an at large, so best that they win.

Not listing the other conferences as it would be very tough for an outsider to get in from there.

Gotcha. Nice. Just out of curiosity...what do you think about Penn St if they beat Northwestern then beat Ohio St 2nd round of the Big 10 tourney? That would be 3 wins VS OSU. Longshot but that’s a potential scenario I worry about.

 

[BlackSquirrels]

Palm has us 2nd to last in with his latest bracket this morning playing Texas in a first 4 game.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

That game in Dayton vs. Texas is one of the stone coldest locks I've ever seen and the future possible matchups in the East (Kentucky, Ohio St., Nova) just get stone colder from there.

 

[skurey]

I will bet anyone a large amount of money or internet bragging points we don't make the tournament if we lose to BC .

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

I will bet anyone a large amount of money or internet bragging points we don't make the tournament if we lose to BC .

that's a much different claim than "syracuse has no chance for the tournament if they lose to BC"

 

[jncuse]

I will bet anyone a large amount of money or internet bragging points we don't make the tournament if we lose to BC .

I think if Syracuse loses, then gets the next 3 wins after tonight they have a tad more than a 50% chance as of now in my view (certainly not a lock). Don't ask me to bet if Syracuse will actually win the next 3 games -- of course I won't touch that.

 

[pearl31]

Trying to understand something here. SU is 0-6 versus the top 25. Lack of q.1 wins has been a knock placed on other bubble teams. How does that not affect SU?

Poll rankings have nothing to do with the quadrants the committee is using.

 

[jncuse]

Gotcha. Nice. Just out of curiosity...what do you think about Penn St if they beat Northwestern then beat Ohio St 2nd round of the Big 10 tourney? That would be 3 wins VS OSU. Longshot but that’s a potential scenario I worry about.

That would probably still make them out. Assume they go 2-1 in the BIG

That would give them:
3 quad one wins (all against Ohio St)... so the average of those quad one wins is quite good, at the same time it's all against the same team so they may hold it against them.

5-11 vs Q1+Q2 (although that is heavily due to a lack of Q2 games)
3 Bad Losses (which is 1 or 2 higher than most)
RPI Mid to High 70's.

The 70ish hurts the RPI, and they don't quite have the dominant wins we had in 2016.

If they made the finals however and lost.

There are a number of teams that are currently out that I would worry about perhaps stealing an at-large if they made the conference finals... a few of those below depending on who they beat first, may make it by making it to the semi's

Penn St
Nebraska

Marquette

LSU
Georgia
Miss St

Notre Dame

Utah
Washington

 

[jdubs30]

Yeah I just can’t process an RPI in the 30s from beating BC and Clemson. Who knows.

Clemson, who did most of their damage with Grantham, is currently 10th in RPI. That's a massive boost and would be our best RPI win by about 15 slots.

 

[jncuse]

Well, all this talk is useless without us winning some games. Get it going tonight.

 

[pearl31]

ugh lsu just sent it into OT

 

[pearl31]

thanks ucon!

 

[bpo57]

Post #166 - I stated Low to Mid 30's
Post #170 - I stated Low to Mid 30's

35.6 is mid 30's

And that is pretty natural movements when you win 2 games in the RPI... especially a road game has a value of 1.4, and Clemson is currently RPI #10.

Understood but isn't BC around 100 in the RPI? Also SU doesn't operate in a vacuum. Other games are going on as well this week that can affect SU's ability to climb up the ladder.

Btw the ranking of CU and BC is classic RPI nonsense. There's no way anybody would rank CU in the top ten (they were actually 8 when I checked earlier today) and yet BC is much better than 100 evidenced by the fact they're a two point favorite tonight.

 

[bpo57]

I will bet anyone a large amount of money or internet bragging points we don't make the tournament if we lose to BC .

You'd have to lay some very hefty odds for me to get on the other side of that bet.

 

[bpo57]

Poll rankings have nothing to do with the quadrants the committee is using.

I wasn't referencing poll rankings.

 

[NineOneSeven]

thanks ucon!

I want Uconn to lose every game ever

 

[pearl31]

I wasn't referencing poll rankings.

Then you don't understand how the quadrants work.

 

[jncuse]

Very good first set of games for us, although it was more about knocking out outliers. Providence will not get hurt bad by losing at Xavier, but at least they didn't get a surprise win.