Final 4 Teams in the NIL Era

[wiseman3]

Colin Cowherd just made a fantastic point on his show just now...in the last four years, 14 out of 16 Final 4 teams have been unique. Only Uconn has repeated multiple years:

Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Illinois
Iowa State
Miami (FL)
Michigan
NC State
Purdue
San Diego State
UConn

Everyone worried that the NIL era would reduce parity and only benefit the true big dogs at the very top. So far, that hasnt seemed to have been the case. It just encouraged me that we can get back there, especially with the commitment we are seeing from fans and donors. I'd even put out there that I'd expect a Final Four appearance from us in the next 6 years. 14 teams have already done it in the last 4, why can't that be us?

Anyone think that is unreasonable?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I don't think it's unreasonable.

I also think the results of single elimination tournaments are completely wild and I'm not sure what any of them mean beyond cause for celebration.

 

[2B20Again]

Colin Cowherd just made a fantastic point on his show just now...in the last four years, 14 out of 16 Final 4 teams have been unique. Only Uconn has repeated multiple years:

Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Illinois
Iowa State
Miami (FL)
Michigan
NC State
Purdue
San Diego State
UConn

Everyone worried that the NIL era would reduce parity and only benefit the true big dogs at the very top. So far, that hasnt seemed to have been the case. It just encouraged me that we can get back there, especially with the commitment we are seeing from fans and donors. I'd even put out there that I'd expect a Final Four appearance from us in the next 6 years. 14 teams have already done it in the last 4, why can't that be us?

Anyone think that is unreasonable?

Well I think from the list only SanDiego state is not one of the big NIL programs and I’m not sure about them. All I feel would have huge war chests. Can we compete I hope so. Let’s field a BBall team and see where we are. One year ago I believe top 4 teams is the ACC had well in access of 10 Million, that was an increase of more than 36% from previous year. Expecting the same for this portal season. That would make this years portal prices for top recruits in the neighborhood of 13 Mil and change. We’ll see who SU can land and where we fit soon enough. I wouldn’t predict a final 4 in a time line. So many things have to go right. Players playing their best at the right time, no significant injuries and a little luck doesn’t hurt. I’m hoping for the best. But it’s a long winding road.

 

[pearl31]

gag. just another reminder of ucon in-perpetuity good tourney fortune

 

[upperdeck]

nitpicking the final 4 and ignore how close teams got to getting there

2023 uconn/sdst/miami fl/ flor
2024 Purdue/uconn/ala/nc st
2025 flo/houston/auburn/duke
2026 ariz/uconn/mich/ill

you get to the 16 or 8 rounds and then its a crap shoot.

no bigger example than Indiana football being nothing and then money comes in.

 

[Orangezoo]

Curious what that repeat vs unique looks like for the Sweet 16.

 

[RF2044]

Colin Cowherd just made a fantastic point on his show just now...in the last four years, 14 out of 16 Final 4 teams have been unique. Only Uconn has repeated multiple years:

Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Illinois
Iowa State
Miami (FL)
Michigan
NC State
Purdue
San Diego State
UConn

Everyone worried that the NIL era would reduce parity and only benefit the true big dogs at the very top. So far, that hasnt seemed to have been the case. It just encouraged me that we can get back there, especially with the commitment we are seeing from fans and donors. I'd even put out there that I'd expect a Final Four appearance from us in the next 6 years. 14 teams have already done it in the last 4, why can't that be us?

Anyone think that is unreasonable?

Not unreasonable, but predicted upon good coaching / good recruiting.

Feeling excited about GMac, but both of the above are TBD.

If he is what we think he is, then it isn't unreasonable at all to think that we could have some deep runs in the NCAAT. But we have to get things turned around and get back on track first.

 

[MikeSU02]

"one seed or Connecticut"

For those who don’t know, OSOC is a metric that has correctly predicted 17 of the last 18 March Madness champions. It stands for “one seed or Connecticut” and simply states that the tournament champion will either be a one seed or the University of Connecticut. 17 of the last 18 national champions have satisfied this metric, the only one who hasn’t is 2016 Villanova who won as a two seed. With Michigan up 30 on Tennessee late and Duke playing UConn later today, Illinois is now the only remaining non-OSOC team. I know who I’m rooting for. Let’s go Illini! Free us from OSOC tyranny!

 

[Orangezoo]

"one seed or UConn"

For those who don’t know, OSOC is a metric that has correctly predicted 17 of the last 18 March Madness champions. It stands for “one seed or Connecticut” and simply states that the tournament champion will either be a one seed or the University of Connecticut. 17 of the last 18 national champions have satisfied this metric, the only one who hasn’t is 2016 Villanova who won as a two seed. With Michigan up 30 on Tennessee late and Duke playing UConn later today, Illinois is now the only remaining non-OSOC team. I know who I’m rooting for. Let’s go Illini! Free us from OSOC tyranny!

5 years ago I’d say there goes my lunch… now it’s whatever. Let’s get back in the conversation so we can hate them as a program we are hunting to beat again.

 

[pearl31]

s;ljfeoicm;sks

 

[OttoinGrotto]

s;ljfeoicm;sks

fhqwgads

 

[longtimefan]

Well I think from the list only SanDiego state is not one of the big NIL programs and I’m not sure about them. All I feel would have huge war chests. Can we compete I hope so. Let’s field a BBall team and see where we are. One year ago I believe top 4 teams is the ACC had well in access of 10 Million, that was an increase of more than 36% from previous year. Expecting the same for this portal season. That would make this years portal prices for top recruits in the neighborhood of 13 Mil and change. We’ll see who SU can land and where we fit soon enough. I wouldn’t predict a final 4 in a time line. So many things have to go right. Players playing their best at the right time, no significant injuries and a little luck doesn’t hurt. I’m hoping for the best. But it’s a long winding road.

I don't consider FAU to be a power program.

 

[PoppyHart]

I think it's gonna be a minute before mid-majors like FAU and SDSU return. It's a money game now.

 

[MikeSU02]

5 years ago I’d say there goes my lunch… now it’s whatever. Let’s get back in the conversation so we can hate them as a program we are hunting to beat again.

Yep, let's hate them while beating them.

Next best day to plant a tree is today and here we are. Onwards.

 

[Sherman20]

Colin Cowherd just made a fantastic point on his show just now...in the last four years, 14 out of 16 Final 4 teams have been unique. Only Uconn has repeated multiple years:

Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Illinois
Iowa State
Miami (FL)
Michigan
NC State
Purdue
San Diego State
UConn

Everyone worried that the NIL era would reduce parity and only benefit the true big dogs at the very top. So far, that hasnt seemed to have been the case. It just encouraged me that we can get back there, especially with the commitment we are seeing from fans and donors. I'd even put out there that I'd expect a Final Four appearance from us in the next 6 years. 14 teams have already done it in the last 4, why can't that be us?

Anyone think that is unreasonable?

Sure, but the NIL era and now revenue sharing has only recently been ramping up. I worry that the new landscape will only increase the gap between the have and have-nots. We need collective bargaining and contracts to achieve more fairness and parity going forward. This year, three of the four teams in the Final Four are absolute juggernauts, all KenPom top 6 teams. UConn wasn’t that far down at like 10th. They’ve also been there before (and Hurley is like Thanos) so not exactly a surprise team. And it would’ve been Duke (the other juggernaut) if they hadn’t had that meltdown.

 

[Brooky03]

A handful of legendary coaches at big time programs also stepped away at/near the start of NIL. K, Roy, Bennett, Wright, etc.

 

[wiseman3]

I don't know how my list got messed up, but I somehow put Iowa State in there and missed Auburn/Houston. The point still stands, here are the correct teams lol

Alabama (2024)
Arizona (2026)
Auburn (2025)
Duke (2025)
Florida (2025)
Florida Atlantic (2023)
Houston (2025)
Illinois (2026)
Miami (FL) (2023)
Michigan (2026)
NC State (2024)
Purdue (2024)
San Diego State (2023)
UConn (2023, 2024, 2026)

 

[Knicks411]

The interesting thing is if you look at something like Ken pom ratings, the absolute best teams have definitely gotten better (and in fact, we've mostly seen the best teams make the final four, especially the last 2 years).

I pulled the ken pom team ratings going all the way back to 1997, and pulled down the highest individual rating for every year, along with the average of the 5 highest and the 10 highest. Here is what the average rating of the 5 highest KP team looks like in graph form. 2025 and 2026 are, by far, the highest totals on the list; 2025 the top 5 teams had an average rating of +35.66 and this year its +36.68 (granting there are 3 games left this year so the 2026 numbers could change. Prior to 2025, the highest season average on record was 2015 at +33.22. I'll save everyone the chart, but top 10 is similar; the last 2 seasons the average top 10 team is at least 2 points better than the highest average prior to 2025.

Final little nugget here, and granting this is all selective endpoints; but in the entire Ken pom history, there have been 13 teams with a rating of +35 or higher. 7 of them have occured in the last 2 years, with additional entries in 2021 and 2024.

Anecdotally, it would make sense to me the best teams are better now, you have a much better chance of keeping good players in school for an extra year or two now. That said, to go back to the original point it could be true that while the best teams may be better, it's also possible there will be more variety in those teams (though I dont want to overstate that too much; Duke and Houston were top 5 each of the last 2 years, Florida has been 3rd and 6th, Arizona 13th and 2nd.