First down predictability | Syracusefan.com

First down predictability

statsgrad

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Mar 11, 2013
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Let me preface this by saying I actually thought McDonald did a decent job with the play calls today and I am a much bigger fan of our offense than 90% of this board. But I noticed a lot of predictability in our play calls (pass vs run). Taking away the final drive of the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th when we were down big and had to pass, our first down play calling looks like this:

1st down play distribution:
Run: 25
Screen pass: 2
Forward pass: 3

--90% 1st down plays (27 of 30) were either run or screen pass (long handoff).
--Granted we ran the ball 51 of 79 plays (64.5%) but the 1st down run was awfully predictable even for me sitting at home in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. If the run picked up >6 yards we would then run again, if not, then we were forced to pass.
--2 of the 3 times we threw forward passes on first down, Ben Lewis and Jarrod West found themselves WIDE OPEN for decent gains (I think 16 and 9 yards respectively). MD was absolutely all out sitting on the 1st down run/screen pass all day, and then would drop back into coverage on 2nd and long. The fact that we still rushed for so many yards is a testament to how great our offensive line played.
--Either McDonald trusts Hunt a lot less than he says he does, or he is doing an awful job of mixing up 1st down play calls.
 

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