FSU vs The ACC

[Tip Hill]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

 

[SUMBA]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

On the bright side, that chance is > 0.

 

[kirbivore]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

not really

 

[HtownOrange]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

The question is valid, very valid. The answer is complex.

If a super league or two power leagues are desired, then yes, SU has a reasonable or above expectation of being included. Regardless of the posts of certain fan bases and sports writers, the reality is that a super league of the SEC and B1G is nothing more than NFL light; it would turn off a large chunk of CFB fans, and like fail* financially in the long run. Neither conference is a true representation of CFB fans, nor is it likely that lesser conferences could provide meaningful competition. If the two conferences were in a stand alone division, they would merely beat up each other and more fans would be lost as what were once power conference mid and upper tier teams are now dregs and mid tier teams.

More realistically, as the SEC chief has indicated, they realize that many more teams are necessary for CFB to stay financially healthy. Either bot conferences expand, which results in limiting growth financially, or maintain nearby conferences that make less so the SEC and B1G can make more, a bigger slice of the pie, it you prefer. What makes CFB different from NFL is that every one can attach themselves to a school because of alumni status or by location or by family. The pros are usually centered around huge cities with regions of support. CFB is personal. Also, a real shot at winning must be available to all via access to playoffs. Obviously, the SEC and B1G are limiting access but there remains access.

Also in SUs favor is that NY is a hugely populous state with only three D1 schools: SU, Army and Buffalo.

Finally, if Fran Brown does his thing a few more years, SU will mandate a spot. They won't be able to leave SU out of any super league.

The answer is that SU and many others are necessary if the elites want to stay relevant. Don't worry, things will change, again, and again, and again, ...


* By fail I mean that the revenues would drop considerably. Though they may remain higher than for lower levels of CFB, it is not likely that many people will want to watch NFL light when they lack any connection to the teams within NFL light.

 

[ImperialOrange]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

I think the real question for many of us is do we want SU to be at the big boy table IF they are required to sell their soul to do so?

In the 2 mega conference "nfl lite" structure there will be a product demand vacuum created for those that still want college football as we've known it. College hoops means nothing to me anymore without the big east, there are worse outcomes than potential regional conferences becoming a thing once more. Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, Liberty, Boston College, etc make an interesting and watchable product where all road games are drivable for all sports.

The biggest losers in all of this are the non revenue athletes that suffer due to, or get sacrificed because of, football and MBB. Those non revenue Stanford flights won't continue forever

 

[Archbold44]

The question is valid, very valid. The answer is complex.

If a super league or two power leagues are desired, then yes, SU has a reasonable or above expectation of being included. Regardless of the posts of certain fan bases and sports writers, the reality is that a super league of the SEC and B1G is nothing more than NFL light; it would turn off a large chunk of CFB fans, and like fail* financially in the long run. Neither conference is a true representation of CFB fans, nor is it likely that lesser conferences could provide meaningful competition. If the two conferences were in a stand alone division, they would merely beat up each other and more fans would be lost as what were once power conference mid and upper tier teams are now dregs and mid tier teams.

More realistically, as the SEC chief has indicated, they realize that many more teams are necessary for CFB to stay financially healthy. Either bot conferences expand, which results in limiting growth financially, or maintain nearby conferences that make less so the SEC and B1G can make more, a bigger slice of the pie, it you prefer. What makes CFB different from NFL is that every one can attach themselves to a school because of alumni status or by location or by family. The pros are usually centered around huge cities with regions of support. CFB is personal. Also, a real shot at winning must be available to all via access to playoffs. Obviously, the SEC and B1G are limiting access but there remains access.

Also in SUs favor is that NY is a hugely populous state with only three D1 schools: SU, Army and Buffalo.

Finally, if Fran Brown does his thing a few more years, SU will mandate a spot. They won't be able to leave SU out of any super league.

The answer is that SU and many others are necessary if the elites want to stay relevant. Don't worry, things will change, again, and again, and again, ...


* By fail I mean that the revenues would drop considerably. Though they may remain higher than for lower levels of CFB, it is not likely that many people will want to watch NFL light when they lack any connection to the teams within NFL light.

They will leave out whomever they will leave out. They might even kick out some schools. Eventually, a Northwestern and Vanderbilt might find themselves imperfect fits with where this is all going.

This is a revenue issue and, like it or not, the Northeast is limited in that regard when it comes to college football. This is at least In part because the NFL is so large. There are only three D1 schools in NY, but there are 3 pro football teams with huge followings. And that excludes the impact that pro teams in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New England have on the fringes of NY as well. So that dilutes the value of the football product. I am not so sure that New York is not saturated with football.

Performance on the field can only go so far. Boise State would not get a sniff from the Pac 12, much less the B1G or SEC. Not even the B12 so far. Although I could see the B12 using taking Boise State and UNLV at some point, such as if the ACC gets raided and backfills from the B12.

For Syracuse to overcome all of this, it can only be because Fran Brown does what Dick MacPherson did from 1987-1991. We will need to be a consistent top 15 team over a period of time. But it took him 7 years to get us to the first year of that success. Do we have that much time? And I am not sure how easy it will be for any school moving forward to be a consistent playoff team, much less one that is not already in that position.

That being said... if we get to 4-0 this year... I would say that the University would be wise to lock Brown up with a contract that would make Jimbo Fisher blush.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Thank you! However, if "just about every" legal dispute was "iron clad" (the main premise) as alleged by numerous internet legal eagles, etc., there would be so much more time for those folks in the actual profession to play more golf.

If only that were true.

It's often more about gaining leverage and the threat of having to spend large amounts of time and money than actually winning.

 

[Newhouser]

They will leave out whomever they will leave out. They might even kick out some schools. Eventually, a Northwestern and Vanderbilt might find themselves imperfect fits with where this is all going.

This is a revenue issue and, like it or not, the Northeast is limited in that regard when it comes to college football. This is at least In part because the NFL is so large. There are only three D1 schools in NY, but there are 3 pro football teams with huge followings. And that excludes the impact that pro teams in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New England have on the fringes of NY as well. So that dilutes the value of the football product. I am not so sure that New York is not saturated with football.

Performance on the field can only go so far. Boise State would not get a sniff from the Pac 12, much less the B1G or SEC. Not even the B12 so far. Although I could see the B12 using taking Boise State and UNLV at some point, such as if the ACC gets raided and backfills from the B12.

For Syracuse to overcome all of this, it can only be because Fran Brown does what Dick MacPherson did from 1987-1991. We will need to be a consistent top 15 team over a period of time. But it took him 7 years to get us to the first year of that success. Do we have that much time? And I am not sure how easy it will be for any school moving forward to be a consistent playoff team, much less one that is not already in that position.

That being said... if we get to 4-0 this year... I would say that the University would be wise to lock Brown up with a contract that would make Jimbo Fisher blush.

I don't think there is any doubt that the BIG and the SEC boot some programs out. I think the out will be when classes become optional. At that point the schools that wrap themselves in the shroud of "student-athlete" will have to put up or shut up on their academics. I think some of the schools including SU will see it as a perfect time to opt out of an arm$ race that can't sustain.

 

[Hoo's That]

They will leave out whomever they will leave out. They might even kick out some schools. Eventually, a Northwestern and Vanderbilt might find themselves imperfect fits with where this is all going.

This is a revenue issue and, like it or not, the Northeast is limited in that regard when it comes to college football. This is at least In part because the NFL is so large. There are only three D1 schools in NY, but there are 3 pro football teams with huge followings. And that excludes the impact that pro teams in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New England have on the fringes of NY as well. So that dilutes the value of the football product. I am not so sure that New York is not saturated with football.

Performance on the field can only go so far. Boise State would not get a sniff from the Pac 12, much less the B1G or SEC. Not even the B12 so far. Although I could see the B12 using taking Boise State and UNLV at some point, such as if the ACC gets raided and backfills from the B12.

For Syracuse to overcome all of this, it can only be because Fran Brown does what Dick MacPherson did from 1987-1991. We will need to be a consistent top 15 team over a period of time. But it took him 7 years to get us to the first year of that success. Do we have that much time? And I am not sure how easy it will be for any school moving forward to be a consistent playoff team, much less one that is not already in that position.

That being said... if we get to 4-0 this year... I would say that the University would be wise to lock Brown up with a contract that would make Jimbo Fisher blush.

I don't think schools will get tossed. I think the B1G and SEC will come up with some sort of onerous requirement(s) and NW'ern and Vandy will choose to leave.

Making classes optional (like Newhouser says) could be the line that many schools will choose never to cross.

 

[orangecuse]

I think the real question for many of us is do we want SU to be at the big boy table IF they are required to sell their soul to do so?

In the 2 mega conference "nfl lite" structure there will be a product demand vacuum created for those that still want college football as we've known it. College hoops means nothing to me anymore without the big east, there are worse outcomes than potential regional conferences becoming a thing once more. Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, Liberty, Boston College, etc make an interesting and watchable product where all road games are drivable for all sports.

The biggest losers in all of this are the non revenue athletes that suffer due to, or get sacrificed because of, football and MBB. Those non revenue Stanford flights won't continue forever

Yeah.

I hope all of those folks who had repeatedly whined/complained on how these poor 'ol taken advantage of, forced labor type revenue sport souls on free rides, access to numerous available resources, monthly stipends, etc., etc., are boasting in all the ensuing and current restitution made of such horrendous past crimes.

As the saying goes; "be careful what you wish for." Here we are, and it's quite apparent to where the tsunami's high water mark will eventually end.

 

[Scooch]

Yeah.

I hope all of those folks who had repeatedly whined/complained on how these poor 'ol taken advantage of, forced labor type revenue sport souls on free rides, access to numerous available resources, monthly stipends, etc., etc., are boasting in all the ensuing and current restitution made of such horrendous past crimes.

As the saying goes; "be careful what you wish for." Here we are, and it's quite apparent to where the tsunami's high water mark will eventually end.

The prior model of major college athletics never made a lick of sense. It was corrupt from the very start, over 100 years ago, and it only got more perverted with every passing year.

I don't believe any other country on Earth used their premiere academic institutions as a de facto minor league for professional sports.

Which is all to say that maybe this slow rolling detonation of the prior major college sports model is, oddly, for the best. Maybe it's long past time that universities not operate minor league sports franchises under the guise of it being part of the educational mission.

Besides, it was rulings from the Supreme Court going back 40 years that are why we're at where we're at. It's not Jay Bilas's fault. Take it up with the folks in robes.

 

[Hoo's That]

{snip}

I don't believe any other country on Earth used their premiere academic institutions as a de facto minor league for professional sports.

{snip}

This is the problem in a nutshell. The NBA and NFL have never had viable minor leagues. Part of it is because they could rely on the colleges to pay for them instead of laying out their own money like baseball does.

 

[orangecuse]

The prior model of major college athletics never made a lick of sense. It was corrupt from the very start, over 100 years ago, and it only got more perverted with every passing year.

I don't believe any other country on Earth used their premiere academic institutions as a de facto minor league for professional sports.

Which is all to say that maybe this slow rolling detonation of the prior major college sports model is, oddly, for the best. Maybe it's long past time that universities not operate minor league sports franchises under the guise of it being part of the educational mission.

Besides, it was rulings from the Supreme Court going back 40 years that are why we're at where we're at. It's not Jay Bilas's fault. Take it up with the folks in robes.

"Never." "Corrupt from the very start, over a 100 years ago"... yadda yadda yadda. Such a flawed argument IMO.

I imagine there are numerous "student athletes" from yesteryear who hardly feel that way. You don't even need to go back "100" years, perhaps not even 50. When there was a time getting a free ride to an institution of higher learning, let alone the "premier" ones you suggest, was a dream and a true opportunity of a lifetime.

A time, when if not for such a "corrupt" model, millions of folks would otherwise never of had such an incredible opportunity to pursue any of their dreams, let alone a better life, etc. that attending an institution of higher learning provided them. There was a time when there wasn't anywhere near the amount of coin (media winfall, etc.) that schools reaped as the case today.

And, those folks in "robes" you mention, are human beings, subject to all of the same, let's just say forces, etc. as all of us.

Moreover, unfortunately, greed is and has been for sometime, everywhere in our culture/society today.

 

[Scooch]

"Never." "Corrupt from the very start, over a 100 years ago"... yadda yadda yadda. Such a flawed argument IMO.

I imagine there are numerous "student athletes" from yesteryear who hardly feel that way. You don't even need to go back "100" years, perhaps not even 50. When there was a time getting a free ride to an institution of higher learning, let alone the "premier" ones you suggest, was a dream and a true opportunity of a lifetime.

A time, when if not for such a "corrupt" model, millions of folks would otherwise never of had such an incredible opportunity to pursue any of their dreams, let alone a better life, etc. that attending an institution of higher learning provided them. There was a time when there wasn't anywhere near the amount of coin (media winfall, etc.) that schools reaped as the case today.

And, those folks in "robes" you mention, are human beings, subject to all of the same, let's just say forces, etc. as all of us.

Moreover, unfortunately, greed is and has been for sometime, everywhere in our culture/society today.

All I know is that when I was on the Hill I watched Lawrence Moten roll up to Acropolis one night in a brand new Jeep Grand Cherokee. Must’ve been a $30,000 vehicle back in 1993. If anyone thinks he got that because of his good credit and a tidy down payment I got a bridge in Brooklyn for you.

 

[Moontan]

All I know is that when I was on the Hill I watched Lawrence Moten roll up to Acropolis one night in a brand new Jeep Grand Cherokee. Must’ve been a $30,000 vehicle back in 1993. If anyone thinks he got that because of his good credit and a tidy down payment I got a bridge in Brooklyn for you.

Back in my day, hoops stars drove dealership vehicles.
Loaners, but still "free transportation".

 

[orangecuse]

All I know is that when I was on the Hill I watched Lawrence Moten roll up to Acropolis one night in a brand new Jeep Grand Cherokee. Must’ve been a $30,000 vehicle back in 1993. If anyone thinks he got that because of his good credit and a tidy down payment I got a bridge in Brooklyn for you.

Doubtful anyone/many thought that at all...but rather what a fortunate and lucky son of a b!tch he is! I betcha he thought the same thing too! And, how it was so good to be me!

 

[Scooch]

Doubtful anyone/many thought that at all...but rather what a fortunate and lucky son of a b!tch he is! I betcha he thought the same thing too! And, how it was so good to be me!

OK. You’re the one who’s bemoaning all that we’ve lost. My point is simply that college sports have always been a corrupt mess. Paying players directly now is just a different flavor. They’re still getting a free education, should they choose to take advantage of it.

 

[Orangefizz]

A question to the people that follow conference expansion more than I do ……

Is there any realistic chance that our beloved SU ends up at a big boy table with either the B10 or SEC ?

SEC 0%
B10 maybe 10%

I think there will be 3 conferences in a new super league. The SEC, Big Ten and a combo Big 12/ACC. Honestly I think we will be in the merged leftover conference

 

[HtownOrange]

SEC 0%
B10 maybe 10%

I think there will be 3 conferences in a new super league. The SEC, Big Ten and a combo Big 12/ACC. Honestly I think we will be in the merged leftover conference

Can you expound on your theory?

 

[Orangefizz]

Can you expound on your theory?

I think that each of the big two conferences will eventually expand to 24 teams. I see zero chance for Syracuse joining the SEC so the B10 is the only chance. I think the following ACC teams would be ahead of Syracuse from the B10 perspective: ND UNC UVA DUKE GT FSU CLEMSON MIAMI CAL STANFORD.

I think our best hope for the B10 would be to have North Carolina, Duke and Virginia join the SEC conference. If these schools went to the B10 instead, then NC State and Virginia Tech could be targeted by the SEC since these are new continuous states.

Carolina is the linchpin; I’m rooting for them to go to the SEC which opens up more spots for Syracuse in the Big Ten

 

[HtownOrange]

I think that each of the big two conferences will eventually expand to 24 teams. I see zero chance for Syracuse joining the SEC so the B10 is the only chance. I think the following ACC teams would be ahead of Syracuse from the B10 perspective: ND UNC UVA DUKE GT FSU CLEMSON MIAMI CAL STANFORD.

I think our best hope for the B10 would be to have North Carolina, Duke and Virginia join the SEC conference. If these schools went to the B10 instead, then NC State and Virginia Tech could be targeted by the SEC since these are new continuous states.

Carolina is the linchpin; I’m rooting for them to go to the SEC which opens up more spots for Syracuse in the Big Ten

Thanks for breaking it out.

 

[Scooch]

Thanks for breaking it out.

FWIW, I'd be stunned if a handful of ACC teams didn't end up in the B1G in the next 5-7 years. We know the B1G covets UNC and UVA, and I'd imagine there's another 2-4 they'd take onboard (Duke, Miami, GaTech, etc).

I agree that SU's most likely outcome is to be in a mashed up B12/ACC with the teams not poached by the B1G and SEC.

 

[kirbivore]

FWIW, I'd be stunned if a handful of ACC teams didn't end up in the B1G in the next 5-7 years. We know the B1G covets UNC and UVA, and I'd imagine there's another 2-4 they'd take onboard (Duke, Miami, GaTech, etc).

I agree that SU's most likely outcome is to be in a mashed up B12/ACC with the teams not poached by the B1G and SEC.

I know it's a pipe dream but maybe the SEC would take SU on as a northeast patsy ala Rutgers.

 

[HtownOrange]

I know it's a pipe dream but maybe the SEC would take SU on as a northeast patsy ala Rutgers.

It may be less of a pipe dream when one considers:

1) ESPN owns part of the SECN and the ACC.
2) ESPN lacks any other substantive influence in the northeast markets for college sports and giving up the northeast.
3) ESPN would be losing market share in the northeast to their prime competitor, Fox.
4) The SECN and SEC would be the only regional major conference.
5) Hoops is still too big of a prize to lose without a fight. At the estimated 25% value of the ACC deal, hoops is worth north of $100MM annually for ESPN and the ACC, each.

Combined, the above makes one believe ESPN will either keep the ACC and ACCN intact or combine enough of the ACC with the SEC to ensure the money steams keep flowing.

The real issue is how do they pull it off. The SEC will not kill off the ACC without ESPN's blessing, which means ESPN is holding onto a lot of properties one way or another. Currently, SU caries NY, Pitt carries PA, and BC carries MA, or about 36MM people. VA, NC and SC are far short of that.

I understand that people want to pretend it is small markets but cable has not died off and likely won't anytime soon, the House of Mouse empire will not cut one source of revenue when they can have both, cable and streaming. Yeah, the CA and TX additions are market based but that argument will fail if ESPN and Fox do not convert other deals to the market format v. State format. It is more likely that CA and TX reach a more lucrative deal down the road. Regardless, if the additions prove more valuable, the revenue the ACCN generated is split 50/50 so both sides win.

 

[Hoo's That]

Our board's version of OX posted an item today that states "The amended agreement allows schools to leave for a football-only conference at half the usual exit fee -- $75 million or 50% of the standard penalty, whichever is greater -- if six or more members exit together."

After the House v. NCAA Settlement: Is a 'super league' college football realignment's inevitable final form?

Part 3 of our series on the future of college athletics over the next 10 years focuses on pitches for a new super league, and whether the options are viable for an evolving industry that is starving for more revenue

www.cbssports.com