GIANT difference in hunts passing before/after running the ball

[Millhouse]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=400547817&period=0

went drive by drive and separated passes before he ran vs passes after

Before he ran the ball on a drive, he was 10-16, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
157 rating

After he ran the ball on a drive, 2-11, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
24 rating

Holy cow that is a big difference.

please feel free to check my work, i did it real fast

somethings not adding up, he ended up 14-28 for 219, i must have missed something. the first play of the game he ran for a yard, that didn't tire him out

 

[OttoForLife]

Wow nice work. Pretty insightful data.

 

[Millhouse]

Wow nice work. Pretty insightful data.

Thanks.

I don't want him to stop scrambling. But once he does it once, KEEP DOING IT

 

[OttoForLife]

Thanks.

I don't want him to stop scrambling. But once he does it once, KEEP DOING IT

True, but it might be worth thinking about designed QB running plays vs. having him make plays when people are covered.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

What conclusions do you draw from all this data...

That our running QB shouldn't run the ball anymore?

 

[Millhouse]

Corrected

Before running for more than a yard
11-18 209 yards 1 int
148 rating

After running for more than a yard
3-11 10 yards.
35 rating

i think that is closer to adding up. I have one extra attempt in there somewhere (probably a play nullified by a penalty), let's assume it's for the after running side. i'm too lazy to do this again

make it 3-10 10 yards 38 rating

whatever close enough. point is running probably made him throw worse last week. or i'm just fooled by randomness

 

[Millhouse]

What conclusions do you draw from all this data...

That our running QB shouldn't run the ball anymore?

i don't know what to conclude. let him throw until he scrambles at which point run all the time. i don't know what the tradeoffs are. it could just be random, it is just one game, but it seems pretty stark

maybe this explains why all those drives stalled and we got 20 pts on 1000000 yards

 

[Timonen]

What conclusions do you draw from all this data...

That our running QB shouldn't run the ball anymore?

to tend towards runs after qb runs...or to (at minimum) let them SLOW DOWN after qb runs so he can get his breath and head together. It's a completely logical stat.

 

[Chip]

The first drive had two drops. I can't recall the Estime incompletion. But Broyld's drop was a perfect pass. Ishmael's was a good pass to as I recall, I think he just knew he was going to get blasted.

Not sure what that does to the data.

 

[Millhouse]

maybe we throw the godawful bubble screens when hunt is gassed. he's tired, let's call something easy for him, I KNOW BUBBLE SCREEN should we count the number of defendeNO Adios

 

[Millhouse]

The first drive had two drops. I can't recall the Estime incompletion. But Broyld's drop was a perfect pass. Ishmael's was a good pass to as I recall, I think he just knew he was going to get blasted.

Not sure what that does to the data.

hopefully he's not gassed on the first drive, probably should've thrown it out altogether

broyld drop was before he ran for 10. so it would make his pre-run numbers a smidge better because of one less incompletion

throw out the estime drop, he's 3-9 for 10 yards which still stinks (43 rating)

 

[orangemass]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=400547817&period=0

went drive by drive and separated passes before he ran vs passes after

Before he ran the ball on a drive, he was 10-16, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
157 rating

After he ran the ball on a drive, 2-11, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
24 rating

Holy cow that is a big difference.

please feel free to check my work, i did it real fast

somethings not adding up, he ended up 14-28 for 219, i must have missed something. the first play of the game he ran for a yard, that didn't tire him out

You hit the nail on the head... he was gassed after those runs and it effected his ability to pass accurately...

 

[upperdeck]

I think though you really need to see the plays to tell how it affected his throwing. most of his bad throws more a result of first read not being open. almost all his bad throws seem to come when making late decisions and his mechanics fail. the longer he holds the ball the more he tends to throw high it seems when watching live.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=400547817&period=0

went drive by drive and separated passes before he ran vs passes after

Before he ran the ball on a drive, he was 10-16, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
157 rating

After he ran the ball on a drive, 2-11, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
24 rating

Holy cow that is a big difference.

please feel free to check my work, i did it real fast

somethings not adding up, he ended up 14-28 for 219, i must have missed something. the first play of the game he ran for a yard, that didn't tire him out

Maybe he tweeks his back. Watch his runs, I noticed during the game that on nearly every run, he does a spin move and gets hit in the back. Once I thought he was going to get killed. Could have been that first drive. He stood up shaking his head.

 

[Ottoble]

It would be interesting to see how his stats stacked up in this regard in the CMU and Nova games, for that matter even last year.

Interesting if maybe they could in practice have him do a designed run a few times and then passing plays to help close the gap.

 

[Millhouse]

It would be interesting to see how his stats stacked up in this regard in the CMU and Nova games

finger on my nose saying NOT IT

cfbstats used to give away all that data and i probably could've done it easy but now they charge for it. can't blame them

 

[Millhouse]

I think though you really need to see the plays to tell how it affected his throwing. most of his bad throws more a result of first read not being open. almost all his bad throws seem to come when making late decisions and his mechanics fail. the longer he holds the ball the more he tends to throw high it seems when watching live.

i don't see why those late decision throws would come after he runs and not before. i suppose it could be random but i don't think so

"running around leads to bad throws after" seems more likely than "running around makes WR worse at getting open after"

 

[orange_in_VA]

He was throwing high and behind to Estime all game. He needs more reps with one our best playmakers. Gotta be able to get the ball to one of our most explosive players. It was like he wasn't used to his height and speed. The height thing is a little harder to control, because all of the other wideouts are tall, but he has to get used to his speed and get the ball in front of him.

 

[Ottoble]

finger on my nose saying NOT IT

cfbstats used to give away all that data and i probably could've done it easy but now they charge for it. can't blame them

I'll do CMU Quick

 

[Ottoble]

CMU Game stats:

Before running on a drive:
14-18 127 yds 0td-0int Yd/Att 7.1 yds RAT:96.06
After running on a drive:
6-12 48 yds 1td-0int Yd/Att 4.0 yds RAT: 88.19

He had 3 rushing TDs in this game also, the BS illegal touching by a WR call would have added a completion 5 yards and a TD to the After running on a drive stats
7-13 53yds 2td-0int Yd/att 4.1 RAT: 103.50

I'll admit Millhouse seems to have found a correlation between Yds per attempt, (EDIT:and completion percentage) tds and ints skew QB ratings significantly so I'd skip that. Like I said it would be interesting, if they added this as a wrinkle in practice to get him to run on a few consecutive plays to get him gassed and then run some no huddle pass plays, to see if the Y/ATT numbers would improve. He had several overthrows in the Maryland game, I don't remember them happening in the CMU game because of the score, but maybe he's just not finishing his follow through as well when he's tired and the ball is sailing a little. Either way overall he's been playing pretty well and there have been some bad drops by wideouts, its tough to micro analyze a guy too much but I guess we just did.

 

[Ottoble]

I skipped nova to small a sample size

The Minnesota game bucks the trend completely he's a little better after running in that game:

Before Running on a drive:
12-19 127yds 6.68 Yd/att 0TD-0INT
After running on a drive:
7-9 66yds 7.33 Yd/Att 0Td-0INT

 

[Ottoble]

that's all for me for now someone else want to pick up and run through last season

 

[KaiserUEO]

we've seen this movie before...

 

[TheCusian]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=400547817&period=0 went drive by drive and separated passes before he ran vs passes after Before he ran the ball on a drive, he was 10-16, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT 157 rating After he ran the ball on a drive, 2-11, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT 24 rating Holy cow that is a big difference. please feel free to check my work, i did it real fast somethings not adding up, he ended up 14-28 for 219, i must have missed something. the first play of the game he ran for a yard, that didn't tire him out

Nice work. McPherson was on the radio saying that he needs to learn to run as a last resort.

 

[Scooch]

Man, this is fascinating stuff and one of the best threads on this board in a lonnnng time.

I'm wondering if we're seeing correlation but not causation. Meaning, is the fact that his passing stats are worse post-running not due to said running, but because the run puts our O in a different situation that the D is able to defend better? Maybe that's a stretch, but worth considering all the factors and not just "run" in the pre-run/post-run aspect.