GIANT difference in hunts passing before/after running the ball

[Full_Rebar]

Over at Nunes, they do a nice job with play breakdown and the amount of passes called in the 1st half is baffling, especially the lack of play-action.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2014/9...alling-vs-maryland-orange-terrapins-su-review

 

[OrangeTarheel]

I imagine the answer has something to do with the type of situations in which he is being called upon to run the ball. The pass call on first down will likely be different than third down, especially if we are failing to keep the third downs to a smaller yardage situation. The third down and long situations, all of them pass situations, are all going to be lower percentage passing plays.

 

[upperdeck]

some of our issues over the middle are that the WR is not settling into the open hole and Hunt is seeing it late and throwing around LB. the pass being late makes it look like a bad throw when if you sit in the endzone you can see if throws to the WR its going to be picked. I think its less of a bad throw and more of a bad decision throwing to that spot too late. not sure how to fix that issue though or even what the correct thing that want him to do.. eat it? go to the next progression? or get it out faster which is not really his thing.

 

[Millhouse]

some of our issues over the middle are that the WR is not settling into the open hole and Hunt is seeing it late and throwing around LB. the pass being late makes it look like a bad throw when if you sit in the endzone you can see if throws to the WR its going to be picked. I think its less of a bad throw and more of a bad decision throwing to that spot too late. not sure how to fix that issue though or even what the correct thing that want him to do.. eat it? go to the next progression? or get it out faster which is not really his thing.

why is it happening after he runs the ball though? do you think it's just random?

 

[Millhouse]

Man, this is fascinating stuff and one of the best threads on this board in a lonnnng time.

I'm wondering if we're seeing correlation but not causation. Meaning, is the fact that his passing stats are worse post-running not due to said running, but because the run puts our O in a different situation that the D is able to defend better? Maybe that's a stretch, but worth considering all the factors and not just "run" in the pre-run/post-run aspect.

we're so good at running the ball, it shouldn't make things harder to throw

 

[Millhouse]

I think though you really need to see the plays to tell how it affected his throwing. most of his bad throws more a result of first read not being open. almost all his bad throws seem to come when making late decisions and his mechanics fail. the longer he holds the ball the more he tends to throw high it seems when watching live.

Edit

Delayed post from phone, wondered why it didn't post, didn't mean to be redundant

 

[TheCusian]

I think it's as simple as getting hit a lot + being tired = regression in throwing motion and making reads.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

WAER Sports ‏@WAERSports 52s
Coach Lester says when Hunt rattles off long runs, he just needs to be ready to bounce back and pass.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Jacob Klinger ‏@Jacob_Klinger_ 2m
"He was tired. I could tell." -QB coach Tim Lester on Terrel Hunt's struggles vs. Maryland @dosports

 

[SUFan44]

Jacob Klinger ‏@Jacob_Klinger_ 2m
"He was tired. I could tell." -QB coach Tim Lester on Terrel Hunt's struggles vs. Maryland @dosports

"No kidding. I could tell too." - SUFan44

 

[orangepassion]

Good strategy

WAER Sports ‏@WAERSports 52s
Coach Lester says when Hunt rattles off long runs, he just needs to be ready to bounce back and pass.

 

[Orangeman]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=400547817&period=0 went drive by drive and separated passes before he ran vs passes after Before he ran the ball on a drive, he was 10-16, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT 157 rating After he ran the ball on a drive, 2-11, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT 24 rating Holy cow that is a big difference. please feel free to check my work, i did it real fast somethings not adding up, he ended up 14-28 for 219, i must have missed something. the first play of the game he ran for a yard, that didn't tire him out

Tried to make this point during the game

He gets worn out/jostled/fatigued

Can see it

 

[anglerman]

Tried to make this point during the game

He gets worn out/jostled/fatigued

Can see it

He was constantly trying to catch his breath during the game. Is it possible that he's not in good shape and that maybe 240lbs isn't an ideal wieght for the offense they are running?

 

[chakka3421]

Corrected

Before running for more than a yard
11-18 209 yards 1 int
148 rating

After running for more than a yard
3-11 10 yards.
35 rating

i think that is closer to adding up. I have one extra attempt in there somewhere (probably a play nullified by a penalty), let's assume it's for the after running side. i'm too lazy to do this again

make it 3-10 10 yards 38 rating

whatever close enough. point is running probably made him throw worse last week. or i'm just fooled by randomness

Millhouse finally something of value in all your analysis. Look either SWC75 needs to put this question to HCSS on the Thursdays radio show or you need to get this info to the coaches - Lester and/or McDonald. They need to know this so they can game plan around it. Actually SWC75 always email the station before the show or heck just go to Destiny and give it to him personally.

Really great find!

 

[kcsu]

Again it is coaching. great post

"No kidding. I could tell too." - SUFan44[/

 

[billsin01]

Good strategy

To be fair, I wouldn't say Hunt looks like he's in phenomenal condition. Anyone else feel like he could stand some serious work in this regard in the off-season?

 

[ForCuseSake]

Two correctable issues that I see with Hunt's performance are:

1.) He's not fit enough to run as much as he is. While he's in far better shape than most people, he seems to lack the fitness level required to be effective running & throwing.

2.) He waits to "see" receivers open before throwing to them. I noticed this on many of his poorer throws - he waits too long looking at one receiver instead of going through a progression or trying to "throw" them open.

Both of these are fixable and should improve as both Hunt & the staff grow more comfortable with a handful of bread & butter plays.

My only concern is if GMC will repeatedly call successful plays to determine what their bread & butter is!

 

[Libero2]

He was constantly trying to catch his breath during the game. Is it possible that he's not in good shape and that maybe 240lbs isn't an ideal wieght for the offense they are running?

I would say he is in fine shape for 1-2 QB draws a game (not around the goal line) and whatever scrambles he needs to make to avoid pressures. But he is not in good enough shape to be running for 100-150+ yards a game and still be consistent with his throwing mechanics and decision making.

If Hunt is running for 50 yards a game, his fitness level is fine, but once he starts trying to do so much on the ground he physically wears down and it affects his ability to easily think through a pass play and execute that pass play effectively.

So to answer your question, could he stand to be in better shape, sure. But I don't think anybody should expect that to happen this season. Heck with another 6-7 weeks before a bye, the conditioning level will probably get worse with no down time to rest and recuperate.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Twenty-eight pass attempts is not a big sample. I won't draw any conclusions. I am interested in seeing data from multiple games.

 

[SmilinBob]

This might explain why they don't quick snap either...Hunt's trying to get his wind back. Fatigue is a major factor in a break down of fundamentals and the irony is when a rb makes a long run he's taken out but Hunt can not be out of the game so the coaches have to recognize this and play call accordingly. Fascinating find Millhouse and does seem to be very logical thinking but it is a small sample study. Plus as we all know, you're not a great SU qb until you throw up on the field.

 

[GoSU96]

He was constantly trying to catch his breath during the game. Is it possible that he's not in good shape and that maybe 240lbs isn't an ideal wieght for the offense they are running?

He played every offensive snap and had 23 carries, anybody is going to be gassed.

 

[Millhouse]

Millhouse finally something of value in all your analysis. Look either SWC75 needs to put this question to HCSS on the Thursdays radio show or you need to get this info to the coaches - Lester and/or McDonald. They need to know this so they can game plan around it. Actually SWC75 always email the station before the show or heck just go to Destiny and give it to him personally.

Really great find!

i'm scared that if mcdonald gets this info, he'll decide he needs to run more bubble screens so hunt can rest

 

[SmilinBob]

i'm scared that if mcdonald gets this info, he'll decide he needs to run more bubble screens so hunt can rest

There still are options for GM to work with depending on how gassed Hunt is but yes the bubble screen is one of them.

 

[Millhouse]

Twenty-eight pass attempts is not a big sample. I won't draw any conclusions. I am interested in seeing data from multiple games.

if you wait for a big sample in football, you're going to run out of time

i don't think they knew just how much of a weapon on the ground hunt was last year.

fwiw the BC game, he was 20-31, 228, 0 td, 1 int, 120 rating before running
he was 8-14, 49 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int after running, 134 rating

you get more TD because you're closer to the endzone thanks to effective runs, but you have fewer yards available.

against BC, he had 17 rushes for 90 yards. maryland was 23 for 156. if there is anything to this before/after running stuff (maybe Maryland was just weird randomness), maybe that fatigue starts accelerating. maybe put the brakes on him a little bit and run 15 times instead of 20+

 

[TheCusian]

if you wait for a big sample in football, you're going to run out of time i don't think they knew just how much of a weapon on the ground hunt was last year. fwiw the BC game, he was 20-31, 228, 0 td, 1 int, 120 rating before running he was 8-14, 49 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int after running, 134 rating you get more TD because you're closer to the endzone thanks to effective runs, but you have fewer yards available. against BC, he had 17 rushes for 90 yards. maryland was 23 for 156. if there is anything to this before/after running stuff, maybe that fatigue starts accelerating. maybe put the brakes on him a little bit and run 15 times instead of 20+

Yep. Seems like the most effective red zone play we have. Also gets us out of jams on 3rd down. I'd just cool it on designed runs.

 

[Millhouse]

Good strategy

LISTEN SON You need to do a better job of not breathing hard after sprinting around