GMac had a bigger gap between non conf and conf 3p% than cooney

[Millhouse]

Before you kill me for a cooney thread, this is really a Boeheim thread. Bear with me

Cooney shoots 39% from three in non conference games for his career but only shoots 29% in conference games. 10 percentage point difference = 32% better in non conference games.

year 1 29% non conf. 22% conf
year 2 46% non conf. 31% conf
year 3 37% non conf. 30% conf.

I would love to know how unusual that is. But I don't have a good site to look at that sorts everyone - i had to back out conf from all games to get this comparison

So here's GMac

GMac shot 45% from 3 in non conference games and 34% in conference games.

Gmac shot 11 percent points better non conf = 35% better

How much of this has to do with minutes? I think a lot. I think our shooting suffers because half our guys are scared of a quick hook and the other half who need a hook never get one

triche was 36% non conference, 31% conference

scoop shot 37% non conference, 36% conference. Scoop and triche got plenty of rest. Less drop off.

not comprehensive because it's a hassle with the data. but something to think about


sports reference is great but they only have conference data going back to 2011 and there's no simple way to look at non conference data without subtracting conference games from all games - this is impractical when looking at every player

 

[Cusefan0307]

Before you kill me for a cooney thread, this is really a Boeheim thread. Bear with me

Cooney shoots 39% from three in non conference games for his career but only shoots 29% in conference games. 10 percentage point difference = 32% better in non conference games.

year 1 29% non conf. 22% conf
year 2 46% non conf. 31% conf
year 3 37% non conf. 30% conf.

I would love to know how unusual that is. But I don't have a good site to look at that sorts everyone - i had to back out conf from all games to get this comparison

So here's GMac

GMac shot 45% from 3 in non conference games and 34% in conference games.

Gmac shot 11 percent points better non conf = 35% better

How much of this has to do with minutes? I think a lot. I think our shooting suffers because half our guys are scared of a quick hook and the other half who need a hook never get one

triche was 36% non conference, 31% conference


sports reference is great but they only have conference data going back to 2011 and there's no simple way to look at non conference data without subtracting conference games from all games - this is impractical when looking at every player

I watched Syracuse/Georgetown from 2013 at the BET yesterday for my own enjoyment. Triche got in early foul trouble and Cooney came in and played 15 first half minutes and scored 10 points. The way he was moving around on defense/attacking in that game was night and day compared to the last week. He was literally all over the place, which just reinforces the fact that I think hes run into the ground much like Gmac was, especially in 06. Cooney on Saturday looked like McNamara against A&M in 06.

I think part of it is these guys are team leaders so they don't want to come out, but I think there is a point of diminishing returns if you play guys too much.

 

[Millhouse]

I watched Syracuse/Georgetown from 2013 at the BET yesterday for my own enjoyment. Triche got in early foul trouble and Cooney came in and played 15 first half minutes and scored 10 points. The way he was moving around on defense/attacking in that game was night and day compared to the last week. He was literally all over the place, which just reinforces the fact that I think hes run into the ground much like Gmac was, especially in 06. Cooney on Saturday looked like McNamara against A&M in 06.

I think part of it is these guys are team leaders so they don't want to come out, but I think there is a point of diminishing returns if you play guys too much.

i think boeheim has the best intuitive sense of stats, numbers, probabilities of any coach i've ever seen

but that intuition only goes so far. i think even he has some blind spots because he's so intuitive that he doesn't think he needs to numbers.

i think one of these blind spots are the minutes he gives his guards.

waiters had a dropoff in conference wtihout playing big minutes though. should've been a red flag for nba teams. 40% out of conference, 30% in conference

 

[Cusefan0307]

i think boeheim has the best intuitive sense of stats, numbers, probabilities of any coach i've ever seen

but that intuition only goes so far. i think even he has some blind spots because he's so intuitive that he doesn't think he needs to numbers.

i think one of these blind spots are the minutes he gives his guards.

waiters had a dropoff in conference wtihout playing big minutes though. should've been a red flag for nba teams. 40% out of conference, 30% in conference

Dion/Triche were very similar players statistically, dion just had the flashier game.

 

[upperdeck]

can you really get away with 2 guards on the court that no one cares if the shoot? if you move G up then you are forced to play BJ who plays no D and struggles to rebound. they dont even care if roberson shoots most of the time. losing CM is forcing most of what we are doing right now. cooney is beat and it shows. , it wont be an issue next year.

 

[Millhouse]

can you really get away with 2 guards on the court that no one cares if the shoot? if you move G up then you are forced to play BJ who plays no D and struggles to rebound. they dont even care if roberson shoots most of the time. losing CM is forcing most of what we are doing right now. cooney is beat and it shows. , it wont be an issue next year.

can you really get away with running the starter into the ground until his back breaks?

do you know what BJ johnson shoots from 3 when he gets 4 or more attempts?

39%

there is middle ground between quick hooks and running yourself into the ground

there are lots of 0 for 3s in there, admittedly cherry picked but that was by accident

 

[MikeSU02]

I don't know if it's just a line he uses or if he truly believes this, but when JB says that players can go the full 40 with all the TOs, it makes me cringe.

I'm sure some guys can do it. But to put it on TC to play almost the full 40 in conference isn't fair to him.

I'm actually surprised he wasn't injured earlier.

Or maybe he has been dinged up and has played through it.

I hope they are very careful with his back.

 

[upperdeck]

if you take out the last 3 games from BJ what does it say? I think BJ if he played more would shoot better.. but he needs to do something on the other end to earn the time.

 

[pfister1]

I think there is a point of diminishing returns where a player's play drops off and erases some of the difference between the starter and reserve. Patterson's utter inability to put the ball in the basket most nights has really made this a more difficult argument than it should be though.

But, it's also hard to know how much of the statistical difference between conf. and non-conf. is a result of fatigue vs. the step up in competition and higher intensity of the games. Cornell, Kennesaw State, Loyola and Holy Cross don't play the same type of physical defense that Pitt seems to be able to get away with and the games certainly don't have the same intensity as a matchup with Duke, UNC or Lousiville?

 

[Millhouse]

i'm too lazy to really dig now and I know this can be a chicken and the egg thing but we had such great shooting on some of those great teams a few years back.

johnson 35 mpg rautins 33 scoop 22 and triche 21 in 2009-10. 3 out of 4 guys shot 40% (all games) - scoop was close at 38%

BJ johnson knows how to shoot the ball. Just look at his stroke. the guy can shoot

i don't think the quick hook is the best approach to build depth

 

[Alsacs]

Playing elite guys like Melo,Warrick,Wes Johnson, Flynn, MCW, Fair 40 minutes or high 30 mpg makes sense.
Last year JB didn't give G minutes at SG he was mainly playing backup PG and SF.
Give Cooney the starters minutes 28-32 mpg but the playing 40 mpg gives way to bad habits/shot selection by the kid.
JB is never going to change but it doesn't mean the issue can't be discussed or JB is partially wrong.
GMac was a hybrid guard Cooney is a 2 guard.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think there is a point of diminishing returns where a player's play drops off and erases some of the difference between the starter and reserve. Patterson's utter inability to put the ball in the basket most nights has really made this a more difficult argument than it should be though.

But, it's also hard to know how much of the statistical difference between conf. and non-conf. is a result of fatigue vs. the step up in competition and higher intensity of the games. Cornell, Kennesaw State, Loyola and Holy Cross don't play the same type of physical defense that Pitt seems to be able to get away with and the games certainly don't have the same intensity as a matchup with Duke, UNC or Lousiville?

I don't think Cooney not producing now has anything to do with competition. It's totally injury/fatigue related. He played well in non-league contests against power 5 teams this year. He played well last year against power 5 teams in the non league and in league games until mid February last year. That included teams like Duke and pItt on the schedule. He also played really well in the Big East tournament against Georgetown two years ago. He's also had bad shooting games against the cupcakes like Holy Cross and Bryant as well.

He's a shell of himself the last couple games. If you want to make a comparisons sake, watch Georgetown/Cuse from 2013 BET to see the way he was playing defense, moving with, and without the ball, and then look how he's playing now. He can't even move right now. Doesn't even look like the same person.

 

[Alsacs]

i'm too lazy to really dig now and I know this can be a chicken and the egg thing but we had such great shooting on some of those great teams a few years back.

johnson 35 mpg rautins 33 scoop 22 and triche 21 in 2009-10. 3 out of 4 guys shot 40% (all games) - scoop was close at 38%

BJ johnson knows how to shoot the ball. Just look at his stroke. the guy can shoot

i don't think the quick hook is the best approach to build depth

After 39 years it is sadly obvious JB doesn't care about building depth. He plays percentage that my 7 will beat you and I will comply good stats even though every February it seems we wear down.

 

[Millhouse]

I don't think Cooney not producing now has anything to do with competition. It's totally injury/fatigue related. He played well in non-league contests against power 5 teams this year. He played well last year against power 5 teams in the non league and in league games until mid February last year. That included teams like Duke and pItt on the schedule. He also played really well in the Big East tournament against Georgetown two years ago. He's also had bad shooting games against the cupcakes like Holy Cross and Bryant as well.

He's a shell of himself the last couple games. If you want to make a comparisons sake, watch Georgetown/Cuse from 2013 BET to see the way he was playing defense, moving with, and without the ball, and then look how he's playing now. He can't even move right now. Doesn't even look like the same person.

i don't know how to dole it out but I don't think it's all injury/fatigue either.

 

[Cusefan0307]

i'm too lazy to really dig now and I know this can be a chicken and the egg thing but we had such great shooting on some of those great teams a few years back.

johnson 35 mpg rautins 33 scoop 22 and triche 21 in 2009-10. 3 out of 4 guys shot 40% (all games) - scoop was close at 38%

BJ johnson knows how to shoot the ball. Just look at his stroke. the guy can shoot

i don't think the quick hook is the best approach to build depth

I want BJ to play more. I still think he can be a good player for us going forward. If you play 5 minutes a game, you are going to press to make shots when you are in there. I don't think short stints are good for building confidence.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Clearly the level of competition is a major factor, but I thought last year and think again this year that Trevor Cooney wears down as the season progresses. It is fairly obvious and not really a big revelation to discover that this happens. JB, of course, is weighing a fatigued Cooney vs a fresh BJ or Patterson. He always elects for the "better player" so he views a worn down Cooney as superior to these other players. Is he right or wrong? I don't know.

I do observe other coaches taking more gambles to get "lesser" players on the court though. Pitino is an example of this, but you see it with more than just Louisville. It's why teams have "random dudes" score career highs against us. That never happens for us, because "random guys" never get on the court.

But that's not really the point. The real question is this: How much rest would Cooney need throughout the season to improve his effectiveness at the end in a meaningful way? In other words, imagine that you played Cooney 36 mpg instead of 40 mpg during ACC play. How much better would be right now? A lot? A little? No change? So you have to find the balance between risking losing earlier games by resting him and potentially losing later games because you didn't. Maybe JB is doing this calculus in his mind or maybe he doesn't even think of it this way - we can't know because he isn't going to ever justify these kind of decisions.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't think Cooney not producing now has anything to do with competition. It's totally injury/fatigue related. He played well in non-league contests against power 5 teams this year. He played well last year against power 5 teams in the non league and in league games until mid February last year. That included teams like Duke and pItt on the schedule. He also played really well in the Big East tournament against Georgetown two years ago. He's also had bad shooting games against the cupcakes like Holy Cross and Bryant as well.

He's a shell of himself the last couple games. If you want to make a comparisons sake, watch Georgetown/Cuse from 2013 BET to see the way he was playing defense, moving with, and without the ball, and then look how he's playing now. He can't even move right now. Doesn't even look like the same person.

On this board if you have this opinion then you get the how many wins do you have crowd to come out.
JB could sacrifice minutes in the non-conference to play the long term game which wouldn't really kill the team in seasons where we have been top 4 seeds in the nCAA tournament the past 5 years.
Building depth gives you options when players struggle if you put all your eggs in the basket of 7 guys and one struggles you have no margin for error.

 

[Nicknack]

The quick hook without a doubt can be a factor, and a significant one. Just think about it... if you know that if you miss that 3 you're likely getting yanked. How could that not impact a player negatively when taking the shot. Now, if they get yanked for missing a defensive assignment, that's a different story - take them out because that's a mental mistake rather than a shot which is not. The only exception, in my mind, is if Boeheim has explicitly told a player NOT to shoot a 3 unless the clock is way down or another dire situation. Just look at Patterson for example... he has obviously listened and responded to the coaches. He now rarely puts up a 3 and is actually starting to drive and look for easy shots - as a result, he is playing more minutes. Why Kaleb continues hoisting 3's is beyond me, especially being that he has a mid-range jumper that he can and does make.

 

[pfister1]

Clearly the level of competition is a major factor, but I thought last year and think again this year that Trevor Cooney wears down as the season progresses. It is fairly obvious and not really a big revelation to discover that this happens. JB, of course, is weighing a fatigued Cooney vs a fresh BJ or Patterson. He always elects for the "better player" so he views a worn down Cooney as superior to these other players. Is he right or wrong? I don't know.

I do observe other coaches taking more gambles to get "lesser" players on the court though. Pitino is an example of this, but you see it with more than just Louisville. It's why teams have "random dudes" score career highs against us. That never happens for us, because "random guys" never get on the court.

Clearly on Saturday we saw he was wrong. With the injury, which may or may not be attributable to playing 40 mpg, Cooney gave us nothing on offense.

 

[Nicknack]

I want BJ to play more. I still think he can be a good player for us going forward. If you play 5 minutes a game, you are going to press to make shots when you are in there. I don't think short stints are good for building confidence.

I agree with you and what happens as a result of the short stints, players come in and either press or play timid. Therefore, few minutes (for what could be a developing player), may lead not only to breaking down his confidence but contributing to bad habits. On the other hand, as someone else pointed out, too many minutes can lead to an inflated level of confidence and also, bad habits.

Think about it from a workplace standpoint... if employees don't have an ounce of fear ever of getting fired or reprimanded for poor performance / bad decision-making, do you think your organization would be better or worse off? I believe the answer is obvious which is why Cooney should sit at times, not just for rest but for putting up 8 or 9 3's after making ZERO rather than driving or finding someone else who is contributing offensively.

 

[dyedorange]

I don't know if it's just a line he uses or if he truly believes this, but when JB says that players can go the full 40 with all the TOs, it makes me cringe.

I'm sure some guys can do it. But to put it on TC to play almost the full 40 in conference isn't fair to him.

I'm actually surprised he wasn't injured earlier.

Or maybe he has been dinged up and has played through it.

I hope they are very careful with his back.

I agree, JB's comments re: minutes played not being an issue are a little odd. Maybe we have been forced into playing Cooney more than we otherwise would (two years in a row), so he's rationalizing a bit. But he seems to genuinely believe putting guys out there close to 40mpg is a non-issue. And then you see Trevor's body language out there, and he sometimes just looks totally spent at the end of games. I'm really hoping this issue gets solved next year. I think Cooney brings a lot to the table, but given his playing style (lots of energy expended trying to get open all the time and on D), he could become a better and more efficient player with a little less PT.

 

[Ghost]

BJ Johnson can't shoot.

BJ Johnson is shooting better from three in conference games than Cooney has ever averaged in conference games! Kapow!!!! Can BJ keep up this amazing pace? It's going to be interesting.

I still would like to know why, as people on the board like to say, that if we truly cannot score when TC isn't in the game, then how do we keep scoring when Cooney isn't the game (and at a prolific rate to be honest - 10 MINUTES; 23 points in the last two)!

 

[rrlbees]

BJ Johnson can't shoot. BJ Johnson is shooting better from three in conference games than Cooney has ever averaged in conference games! Kapow!!!! Can BJ keep up this amazing pace? It's going to be interesting. I still would like to know why, as people on the board like to say, that if we truly cannot score when TC isn't in the game, then how do we keep scoring when Cooney isn't the game (and at a prolific rate to be honest - 10 MINUTES; 23 points in the last two)!

You should call JB's show and ask him.

 

[Ghost]

You should call JB's show and ask him.

I should! Alas, I like to use stats and stuff and I don't think I would get enough time to make my point! Stupid format for radio shows...

Plus, I'm not sure I've ever heard JB say we can't score if Cooney doesn't play. Just a lot of people on here.

We need JB to post on the forum!

 

[ORANGEsPHK]

This is a good discussion. I'll add a few words worth to it, although I don't think its anything that has not already been mentioned at one time or another.

1) As already mentioned, the defense in the Big East/ACC is expected to be stronger than out of conference (most games) but there is also lack of familiarity opposing teams have with out of conference games. The Big East/ACC are much more familiar with JB's strategy both on D and O.

2) I believe that the players do get a little burned out towards the end of the season. Conference play is a grind and the players need to bring their best game every night and it can stress/burn out some players over time. Injuries, nagging or otherwise, will accumulate and effect their toll on players.

3) JB always expects his senior/experienced players to be on the court and make the plays, even when they are not playing well. His opinion is that they give the team the best chance to win and will not sub in an 'unknown' quantity in replacement of a 'known' quantity. This also puts pressure on the starters to bring consistency every game and could have a psychological toll over the course of conference play.

4) The best players will bring that consistency and find a way to contribute every game. There are plenty of players that play a large number of minutes and produce with consistency. We've had those players (Rak is one of them this year). Perhaps the question is whether the current roster has enough of these players for the team to be elite? Rak has been super consistent, more so than CJ last year where he had more sub-average games than Rak. Cooney, KJ, TR and even MG has not brought that consistency. Perhaps they start pushing too much and it effects their games, especially if they are not the "go-to" players but that JB expects them to make plays.

I would love to see a longer bench as many of you do. BJ's progress, I believe is a product of him showing well during practice, knowing that he will get more playing time because of this, and the actual PT that he gets in games. I like that Ron is understanding what he needs to do on O more now, but he can only learn, execute and learn during a game. Chinoso - I do wish he had more of a run so he could learn through his mistakes. But. JB doesn't play this way - he recruits high level talent and expects them to lead his team. Its still a fun team to watch - Rak has blown away any expectations I had of him and MG's progress is pretty impressive as well. We just don't have enough pieces this year but still fun to cheer on these guys and watch them progress.