Good breakdown on possible #1 seeds

[Marsh01]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...s-duke-syracuse-virginia-wisconsin/?eref=sihp

 

[JarHeadJim]

For some reason Kansas doesent scare me one bit!

 

[smmCUSE]

I would take this. I'd prefer the 1, but I'd rather be a 2 in the East than a 1 elsewhere.

 

[tbonezone]

is it a bit curious to anyone else that in the very same article one could build an argument that the strength of schedule really doesn't matter (WSU) it's the wins and then turn around and say strength of schedule should forgive (kansas,duke) the number of losses ?

 

[Shermthegeneral]

Personally a one or two seed is fine with me! Does anyone know how the pod system works? I saw some place that we were projected to be the number two seed and still go to Buffalo and then MSG, I also saw nova being projected as the number three seed also going to Buffalo and MSG. So does that mean if we are a 1-3 seed we can get Buffalo and MSG?

There are only two things that really concerns me about this team right now.
1. The fact that everyone has figured out how to play this team on defense. Overplay Cooney, Overplay the pick and roll, and Force them to only half court offense.
2. Teams with more than one three-point shooter. Our 3 loses are a perfect example of what penetration and a kick out for a 3 does to this team.

Besides that the NCAA tournament is mostly luck in my opinion. All about match-ups, shooting, and decent refs.

 

[OrangeTown]

I just hope we still get Buffalo...

 

[Alsacs]

UVA has no shot at a 1 seed. He hit 4 of the 5 teams correctly its Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Wisconsin for the 4th 1 seed.
Kansas without Embiid could struggle at West Virginia and they will kill Texas Tech.
Duke has a trap game @Wake Forest nobody is talking about then UNC.
Syracuse has the easiest schedule Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Villanova has a tough game @Xavier fighting for their lives, and Georgetown at home.
Wisconsin has a tough game @Nebraska on Sunday fighting for their lives and plays Purdue at home

UVA doesn't even enough juice for a 1 seed they have 5 losses and wins over Syracuse, North Carolina at home, and SMU-neutral court. @Pitt is their 4th best win.


IMO the 4th 1 seed comes from Duke or Syracuse.

 

[VaBeachOrFan]

UVA has no shot at a 1 seed. He hit 4 of the 5 teams correctly its Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Wisconsin for the 4th 1 seed.
Kansas without Embiid could struggle at West Virginia and they will kill Texas Tech.
Duke has a trap game @Wake Forest nobody is talking about then UNC.
Syracuse has the easiest schedule Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Villanova has a tough game @Xavier fighting for their lives, and Georgetown at home.
Wisconsin has a tough game @Nebraska on Sunday fighting for their lives and plays Purdue at home

UVA doesn't even enough juice for a 1 seed they have 5 losses and wins over Syracuse, North Carolina at home, and SMU-neutral court. @Pitt is their 4th best win.


IMO the 4th 1 seed comes from Duke or Syracuse.

Actually, the 4th #1 seed comes between Syracuse and Wisconsin, with SU holding the edge at present. It's SU's to lose. #2 seed in the East currently looks like 'Nova, both headed to Buffalo. If they put the lowest #1 against the highest #2, it could have been SU-Wisc, but turns out the Committee adjusts for geography, hence 'Nova gets the nod to stay in the East. All subject to change, of course. This according to Jerry Palm and other Selection Committee members interviewed at length today by Dave Revsine.-VBOF

 

[Frozen]

Syracuse has the easiest schedule Georgia Tech, @Florida State

Sure. Easy.

 

[Dave85]

is it a bit curious to anyone else that in the very same article one could build an argument that the strength of schedule really doesn't matter (WSU) it's the wins and then turn around and say strength of schedule should forgive (kansas,duke) the number of losses ?

No matter how much people claim to be objective, all objectivity is subjectively determined!

 

[sabach]

Actually, the 4th #1 seed comes between Syracuse and Wisconsin, with SU holding the edge at present. It's SU's to lose. #2 seed in the East currently looks like 'Nova, both headed to Buffalo. If they put the lowest #1 against the highest #2, it could have been SU-Wisc, but turns out the Committee adjusts for geography, hence 'Nova gets the nod to stay in the East. All subject to change, of course. This according to Jerry Palm and other Selection Committee members interviewed at length today by Dave Revsine.-VBOF

What happens if Wisky gets the 1 in the East, does SU get the 2 there instead of Nova?

 

[Alsacs]

Sure. Easy.

View attachment 8688

I get the joke, but which of these 5 schedules would you prefer
Texas Tech, @West Virginia
@Wake Forest, North Carolina
@Xavier, Georgetown
Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Purdue, @Nebraska

I think I would rank them easiest to hardest 1. Syracuse 2. Kansas 3. Wisconsin 4. Duke 5. Villanova

 

[PoppyHart]

We should scrap conference play entirely and play 30-31 OOC games every year, if conference success is going to be held in such little regard.

Every year we hear coaches talking about how the "real season" begins with conference play, how it's "like going to war" every night, etc... etc...

As much as Wisconsin and Syracuse had strong OOC resumes and solid conference records, neither are even undisputably the best team in their conference. The three presumed #1 seeds (UF, UA, and WSU) ran away with their league. Nova, UVA, and Kansas were similarly successful. I'd reward them unless the mitigating factors were just too significant.

Not rewarding conference success would be akin to a BCS conference in football factoring in OOC play in determining who gets the automatic bid, even when the overall records are different.

 

[Alsacs]

We should scrap conference play entirely and play 30-31 OOC games every year, if conference success is going to be held in such little regard.

Every year we hear coaches talking about how the "real season" begins with conference play, how it's "like going to war" every night, etc... etc...

As much as Wisconsin and Syracuse had strong OOC resumes and solid conference records, neither are even undisputably the best team in their conference. The three presumed #1 seeds (UF, UA, and WSU) ran away with their league. Nova, UVA, and Kansas were similarly successful. I'd reward them unless the mitigating factors were just too significant.

Not rewarding conference success would be akin to a BCS conference in football factoring in OOC play in determining who gets the automatic bid, even when the overall records are different.

Poppy if the ACC played a true robin I would agree with you. If Kansas hadn't lost to San Diego State at home or @Colorado they would be a 1 seed IMO. However they did and thus they are in contention for a 1 seed. Villanova is the most untalked about team IMO and if they win their 2 games this week and win the Big East Tournament they should be a 1 seed.

UVA's non-conference just eliminates IMO. They don't have the scalps and their 2 best wins are Syracuse and North Carolina at home, and SMU-N. That isn't enough for a 1 seed. UVA's ACC home/homes killed them Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Florida State none of them will finish in the top 6 of the ACC and at best FSU will finish 7th plus UVA plays @UMD with Duke and Pitt will be their rowdiest road game.

 

[KaiserUEO]

is there a chance whicita will trip up in its ridiculous conf tourny?

that would help out an awful lot.

1 L and they will get dropped to the 4 seed that they deserve.

 

[rrlbees]

UVA has no shot at a 1 seed.

UVA wins out including the ACCT, they'll absolutely be in the conversation for a 1. Especially if a couple other things happen. Saying no shot is wrong.

 

[Alsacs]

Indiana State is the only team with the guard play to beat Wichita State. The MVC commissioner needs Dick Bavetta, Bennett Salvadore, Tim Donaghy to officiate this game so the conference gets 2 NCAA bids.

 

[NineOneSeven]

UVA wins out including the ACCT, they'll absolutely be in the conversation for a 1. Especially if a couple other things happen. Saying no shot is wrong.

As they should be.

 

[Madbiker]

I like that there is now some media support for placing SU in MSG as a #2. But IMO that remains a real long shot if either Duke or UVa wins the ACCT. I still think that winner would get placed in the east over us. Still at least this guy has some good logic for his selections. Looking at his bracket...VCU in the 2nd round vs SU would be one of the worst possible matchups we could draw. We would have a nightmare against the havoc with only one good ball handler and such a thin bench. MG bringing the ball up against VCU would be a disaster.

 

[Alsacs]

UVA wins out including the ACCT, they'll absolutely be in the conversation for a 1. Especially if a couple other things happen. Saying no shot is wrong.

If UVA won out it would need 1. Kansas to lose in the Big XII, 2. Wisconsin to lose in the B1G, 3. Villanova to lose in the Big East and have the committee determine that a resume of wins over SMU, Syracuse, North Carolina, @Pitt in the regular season then wins over NC State/Maryland/Florida State, North Carolina/Duke/Pitt, Syracuse/Duke/North Carolina in the ACC tournament would give them a top 4 resume.

If their resume is SMU, Syracuse x2 or Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina x2 that isn't good enough over Wisconsin with 6 losses and wins over Michigan State, @Michigan, Florida, Marquette, St. Louis, West Virginia, St.John's. or Kansas resume Duke, Iowa State x2, Oklahoma x2, New Mexico, Georgetown, Texas, West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor x2.
UVA's non-conference and terrible ACC schedule will not in any realistic scenario IMO be good enough to put them on the 1 line even if they win their next 4 games.

 

[Marsh01]

I get the joke, but which of these 5 schedules would you prefer
Texas Tech, @West Virginia
@Wake Forest, North Carolina
@Xavier, Georgetown
Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Purdue, @Nebraska

I think I would rank them easiest to hardest 1. Syracuse 2. Kansas 3. Wisconsin 4. Duke 5. Villanova

You think a game against FSU is easier than Georgetown? Purdue and Nebraska?

Our game against FSU will be VERY difficult and to think this is a gimme win is foolish.

Kansas has the easiest schedule remaining. TT and WVU are awful.

Xavier (I know they beat Creighton) lost to Seton Hall last night.

 

[Pat Kelly]

UVA has no shot at a 1 seed. He hit 4 of the 5 teams correctly its Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Wisconsin for the 4th 1 seed.
Kansas without Embiid could struggle at West Virginia and they will kill Texas Tech.
Duke has a trap game @Wake Forest nobody is talking about then UNC.
Syracuse has the easiest schedule Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Villanova has a tough game @Xavier fighting for their lives, and Georgetown at home.
Wisconsin has a tough game @Nebraska on Sunday fighting for their lives and plays Purdue at home

UVA doesn't even enough juice for a 1 seed they have 5 losses and wins over Syracuse, North Carolina at home, and SMU-neutral court. @Pitt is their 4th best win.


IMO the 4th 1 seed comes from Duke or Syracuse.

They beat us by 19, they have every right to a claim to a #1 seed as we do

 

[Madbiker]

Poppy if the ACC played a true robin I would agree with you. If Kansas hadn't lost to San Diego State at home or @Colorado they would be a 1 seed IMO. However they did and thus they are in contention for a 1 seed. Villanova is the most untalked about team IMO and if they win their 2 games this week and win the Big East Tournament they should be a 1 seed.

UVA's non-conference just eliminates IMO. They don't have the scalps and their 2 best wins are Syracuse and North Carolina at home, and SMU-N. That isn't enough for a 1 seed. UVA's ACC home/homes killed them Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Florida State none of them will finish in the top 6 of the ACC and at best FSU will finish 7th plus UVA plays @UMD with Duke and Pitt will be their rowdiest road game.

I know you like Nova but I'm not that high on them. 4-3 vs RPI top 50. Two of those in November. They got KU and Iowa in November on neutral court, OK. Iowa turns out to not be that good. But who have they beaten since? Three lopsided loses to the best teams they played since. Outside of Creighton and Nova who in the NBE is really any good? No way I could see them as a #1 even if they somehow beat Creighton.

 

[mykeuva]

They beat us by 19, they have every right to a claim to a #1 seed as we do

I wouldn't say we do at this point. While I don't agree that UVA has "no shot" at a 1 seed, it would take a lot of things going UVA's way to get a 1.

 

[ClamOtto]

This may be orange-colored glasses, but if the committee really looks at the body of work and doesn't over-weight the last 10 games, I don't see how SU's resume isn't clearly superior to the other candidates. it seems like the recent losses, combined with the razor-thin margin of victories, has led to the perception we don't deserve a 1, but those aren't supposed to be factored into the deliberations, as far as i know. Imagine a different scenario where we lost to BC, @ Duke and @UVA in early January, then won the next 12, including two wins over Pitt and one each against Duke and UNC. I don't think anyone would question us as a #1 sitting at 26-3 in that situation.