Good breakdown on possible #1 seeds

[Alsacs]

You think a game against FSU is easier than Georgetown? Purdue and Nebraska?

Our game against FSU will be VERY difficult and to think this is a gimme win is foolish.

Kansas has the easiest schedule remaining. TT and WVU are awful.

Xavier (I know they beat Creighton) lost to Seton Hall last night.

Florida State is a fringe NCAA bubble team I think they will be hard, but @Xavier is tougher. Winning on the road is tough in college basketball and Seton Hall has beaten a lot of BE at home this year. Xavier is closer to the bubble than FSU and needs that 10th Big East win for an NCAA berth and Nova is their NCAA ticket punching game.

@West Virginia is harder than @Florida State IMO. WVU played KU tough at Phog Allen and Morgantown crowd is tougher than FSU crowd.

@Nebraska is WAY TOUGHER than @Florida State. Only 1 team has won in Lincoln this year Michigan(1st place i the B1G) while FSU has lost to Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia at home.

Syracuse has the easiest schedule it doesn't mean FSU is an easy game, but I would rather play them than WVU right now.

 

[Alsacs]

They beat us by 19, they have every right to a claim to a #1 seed as we do

So 1 game overlooks their entire lack of a non-conference resume I mean c'mon man. UVA is a freaking Final Four contender, but they don't have the wins to justify a 1 seed.

 

[Alsacs]

I know you like Nova but I'm not that high on them. 4-3 vs RPI top 50. Two of those in November. They got KU and Iowa in November on neutral court, OK. Iowa turns out to not be that good. But who have they beaten since? Three lopsided loses to the best teams they played since. Outside of Creighton and Nova who in the NBE is really any good? No way I could see them as a #1 even if they somehow beat Creighton.

Nova has swept St. John's, Providence, chance to sweep Xavier, and played a good non-conference schedule. Iowa is a still a top 25 win and Kansas is the other team they would be battling for a 1 seed. I think they are overlooked they would have to beat @Xavier, Georgetown, Seton Hall/DePaul, Providence/Marquette/Xavier, Creighton to get a 1 seed and that is a 1 seed resume if they are 31-3 on March 17th.

 

[Marsh01]

@West Virginia is harder than @Florida State IMO. WVU played KU tough at Phog Allen and Morgantown crowd is tougher than FSU crowd.

absolutely false. I will agree with some of your comments but FSU would beat WVU 7 out of 10 times.

They even rank better in every category.

FSU RPI 58
WVU RPI 90

FSU BPI 43
WVU BPI 59

FSU wins vs top 50 4-7
WVU wins vs top 50 4-11

I would kill to get WVU in our finale. They are playing for nothing. FSU with a win gets off the bubble.

 

[Alsacs]

absolutely false. I will agree with some of your comments but FSU would beat WVU 7 out of 10 times.

They even rank better in every category.

FSU RPI 58
WVU RPI 90

FSU BPI 43
WVU BPI 59

FSU wins vs top 50 4-7
WVU wins vs top 50 4-11

I would kill to get WVU in our finale. They are playing for nothing. FSU with a win gets off the bubble.

We can agree to disagree, as you know college hoops as well as anybody. I don't just make statements out of my ass I like you watch a lot and have a different opinion. WVU sucked early in the season as that team is really young, but they are playing really well since conference play started. I think FSU isn't bad and if they didn't lose @Maryland, @NC State, or Clemson at home they would be a NCAA tournament team. They played Florida at Florida right down to the last seconds, but they have been struggling in ACC play. I think we will win the game, but I think WVU right now is slightly better. Also, I think Georgia Tech at home is easier than Texas Tech who has been a little frisky in Big XII play this season. I think KU will win easily, but Texas Tech has won @Oklahoma, and played a lot of teams close or beat them at home. Nobody is touching KU @Phog Allen but between Georgia Tech or Texas Tech the Red Raiders would have the better chance to keep it frisky.

 

[jncuse]

UVA has no shot at a 1 seed. He hit 4 of the 5 teams correctly its Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Wisconsin for the 4th 1 seed.
Kansas without Embiid could struggle at West Virginia and they will kill Texas Tech.
Duke has a trap game @Wake Forest nobody is talking about then UNC.
Syracuse has the easiest schedule Georgia Tech, @Florida State
Villanova has a tough game @Xavier fighting for their lives, and Georgetown at home.
Wisconsin has a tough game @Nebraska on Sunday fighting for their lives and plays Purdue at home

UVA doesn't even enough juice for a 1 seed they have 5 losses and wins over Syracuse, North Carolina at home, and SMU-neutral court. @Pitt is their 4th best win.


IMO the 4th 1 seed comes from Duke or Syracuse.

Why is @ Nebraska a harder game than @ Florida st? Both teams need that one big scalp, and the line will not be far from even on both... i actually think the line will be closer at Florida st.

I am also curious as to what our 4th beat win is right now. Is it any better than @Pitt. It might actually be the same game.

Right now top. 3 wins are:
Duke, Nova, unc,
Syracuse, smu, unc

So it's nova over smu. But what if Virginia gets another 2 wins in ncaa over the big 4 of the acc. Virginia is then ahead in elite wins

We are really banking on wins over bubble level teams in Cal, ninny, Baylor, st. John's at that point over elite wins.

I would choose us, but I would certainly not call it a lock that the committee makes that call.


And if we lose to Florida St, all bets are off.

 

[Marsh01]

We can agree to disagree, as you know college hoops as well as anybody. I don't just make statements out of my ass I like you watch a lot and have a different opinion. WVU sucked early in the season as that team is really young, but they are playing really well since conference play started. I think FSU isn't bad and if they didn't lose @Maryland, @NC State, or Clemson at home they would be a NCAA tournament team. They played Florida at Florida right down to the last seconds, but they have been struggling in ACC play. I think we will win the game, but I think WVU right now is slightly better. Also, I think Georgia Tech at home is easier than Texas Tech who has been a little frisky in Big XII play this season. I think KU will win easily, but Texas Tech has won @Oklahoma, and played a lot of teams close or beat them at home. Nobody is touching KU @Phog Allen but between Georgia Tech or Texas Tech the Red Raiders would have the better chance to keep it frisky.

I will give you TT. Go look at FSU's losses compared to WVU's losses. When WVU loses they get blown out. When Florida State loses its within a couple of possessions.

4 point loss to NC St
4 point loss to clemson
6 point loss to UNC
4 point loss to Miami
8 point loss to Maryland

This team is improving and they have 2 7 footers as well as two players who can make shots to give us complete fits. To me its not even close. FSU is the last 4 out on the matrix and WVU isnt even on the list anywhere. This team is a tourney team if they beat us which is why our game is 100X harder than Kansas game. Kansas will beat WVU by 15 points.

 

[jordoo]

If we are in the East as a 2 I'm all for it. I still do not see how Kansas's extra wins against the top 50 over rate their extra losses against the top 50 when compared to us. This is all what have you done lately from the media. If we win the next 3 we should still be a 1 seed IMO. 29-4 if we win the 2nd game against a good team in the ACCT then we are a lock in that situation. Kansas is sitting at 22-7 right now and is more likely to lose another than they are to win out.

12-7 vs top 50 is 63%
7-2 vs top 50 is 78%

Kansas's schedule is being over weighted compared to their results. There is no completely fair way to compare things without some objectivity coming in but its not like we have such a limited sample size against good teams. Its just that KU has such a ridiculous number of good teams that they have played. Its an outlier for tough schedules not just this season but in any season. I get that and honestly give them 2 less losses and I'd say sure a lock to be ahead of SU at 14-5 still a lower percentage. One less win and it could be pretty close but we have played 9 top 50 teams and won 7 games not too shabby.

 

[jncuse]

BTW, I am more concerned about Virginia stealing the 2 east from us.

I just think that one of Kansas or Wisconsin will win out and take that #1 seed.

There is always the possibility that committee denies Wichita a #1... we really have no history on this. I think this could open the door for Virginia in that scenario, if one of the 2 above slips.

 

[Alsacs]

Why is @ Nebraska a harder game than @ Florida st? Both teams need that one big scalp, and the line will not be far from even on both... i actually think the line will be closer at Florida st.

I am also curious as to what our 4th beat win is right now. Is it any better than @Pitt. It might actually be the same game.

Right now top. 3 wins are:
Duke, Nova, unc,
Syracuse, smu, unc

So it's nova over smu. But what if Virginia gets another 2 wins in ncaa over the big 4 of the acc. Virginia is then ahead in elite wins

We are really banking on wins over bubble level teams in Cal, ninny, Baylor, st. John's at that point over elite wins.

I would choose us, but I would certainly not call it a lock that the committee makes that call.


And if we lose to Florida St, all bets are off.

If we lose and UVA wins all it does is knock SU off the 1 line and probably KU gets it not UVA.

Second, @Nebraska is WAY TOUGHER for what I mentioned above. Only 1 team the entire season has won in Lincoln, NE and that was the first place Michigan Wolverines by 1 point. Nebraska is tough to beat at home and they won @Michigan State and if they beat Wisconsin as well would pretty much cement an NCAA bid as long as they won 1 game in the B1G tournament. Florida State has lost at home to Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia and Miami. Miami lost at Nebraska and won at Florida State.

The only 2 ACC teams that can be 1 seeds IMO are Duke or Syracuse. IMO if UVA wins the ACC tournament they will be like Miami last year a 2 seed in the East.

 

[Marsh01]

BTW, I am more concerned about Virginia stealing the 2 east from us.

I just think that one of Kansas or Wisconsin will win out and take that #1 seed.

There is always the possibility that committee denies Wichita a #1... we really have no history on this. I think this could open the door for Virginia in that scenario, if one of the 2 above slips.

THe bottom line is we need to go as far or farther in the ACC tourney than Virginia or Duke. Thats really it. If we do we will be ahead of them

 

[Marsh01]

If we lose and UVA wins all it does is knock SU off the 1 line and probably KU gets it not UVA.

Second, @Nebraska is WAY TOUGHER for what I mentioned above. Only 1 team the entire season has won in Lincoln, NE and that was the first place Michigan Wolverines by 1 point. Nebraska is tough to beat at home and they won @Michigan State and if they beat Wisconsin as well would pretty much cement an NCAA bid as long as they won 1 game in the B1G tournament. Florida State has lost at home to Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia and Miami. Miami lost at Nebraska and won at Florida State.

The only 2 ACC teams that can be 1 seeds IMO are Duke or Syracuse. IMO if UVA wins the ACC tournament they will be like Miami last year a 2 seed in the East.

If Virginia wins out and wins the ACC tourney and Kansas slips up they most certainly are going to be a 1 seed. That means they would beat 2 of these 3 teams (assuming higher seeds win). Syracuse/Duke/Carolina in the conference tournament.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

THe bottom line is we need to go as far or farther in the ACC tourney than Virginia or Duke. Thats really it. If we do we will be ahead of them

I think the committee at this point might be looking for signs from above. So the conference tourneys might come more into play than normally, at least thru Saturday, March 15th. Everything will be finalized before the ACC final is played. However if the final is Cuse vs Duke or Cuse vs Virginia, the one or two spot in the East could be reserved for the winner of Sunday's game and the loser gets slotted as the two in another regional.

 

[jncuse]

Even if Nebraska is tougher (not way imo), wisconsin is much more likely to win that game.

1. Wisconsin is currently playing better than us

2. They do not have an injury question mark.

 

[Alsacs]

If Virginia wins out and wins the ACC tourney and Kansas slips up they most certainly are going to be a 1 seed. That means they would beat 2 of these 3 teams (assuming higher seeds win). Syracuse/Duke/Carolina in the conference tournament.

Depends on Nova AND Wisconsin losing as well as Kansas.
UVA's non-conference resume is KILLING them. I can't see them on the 1 line if 3 of the 4 1 seeds are Florida, Arizona, Wichita State.

 

[jncuse]

THe bottom line is we need to go as far or farther in the ACC tourney than Virginia or Duke. Thats really it. If we do we will be ahead of them

Don't disagree that eliminates any toss up decisions.

As I have said a few times cheer for us and cheer for the heels.

 

[Alsacs]

Even if Nebraska is tougher (not way imo), wisconsin is much more likely to win that game.

1. Wisconsin is currently playing better than us

2. They do not have an injury question mark.

I think Syracuse will be favored at Florida State, I will be interested to the see the line of Wisconsin @ Nebraska. FSU has too many home games losses for them to be more than a pick 'em for our game.
However, I agree with you Wisconsin is in a way better position for a 1 seed than Virginia.

 

[jncuse]

If Virginia wins out and wins the ACC tourney and Kansas slips up they most certainly are going to be a 1 seed. That means they would beat 2 of these 3 teams (assuming higher seeds win). Syracuse/Duke/Carolina in the conference tournament.

They would also need Wisconsin to slip IMO
Or a an unexpected decision on the shockers.

It's pretty close in many scenarios. I would not put absolutes on anything.

 

[Alsacs]

UVA's home/homes this season Notre Dame(should have been an NCAA team if Grant doesn't withdraw), Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State. None of these teams are top 6 ACC teams. Its not their fault, but the committee will factor this in plus they only played one of the top 3 ACC teams on the road and lost. I honestly think Maryland is going to pop them on CBS Saturday.
They beat SMU in the non-conference lost to VCU and Wisconsin at home and UW-Green Bay and Tennessee on the road. I don't care if they beat Maryland, North Carolina, Duke/Syracuse their resume is not going to get them on the 1 line. They would be a 2 seed like Miami last year.

 

[rrlbees]

If UVA won out it would need 1. Kansas to lose in the Big XII, 2. Wisconsin to lose in the B1G, 3. Villanova to lose in the Big East and have the committee determine that a resume of wins over SMU, Syracuse, North Carolina, @Pitt in the regular season then wins over NC State/Maryland/Florida State, North Carolina/Duke/Pitt, Syracuse/Duke/North Carolina in the ACC tournament would give them a top 4 resume. If their resume is SMU, Syracuse x2 or Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina x2 that isn't good enough over Wisconsin with 6 losses and wins over Michigan State, @Michigan, Florida, Marquette, St. Louis, West Virginia, St.John's. or Kansas resume Duke, Iowa State x2, Oklahoma x2, New Mexico, Georgetown, Texas, West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor x2. UVA's non-conference and terrible ACC schedule will not in any realistic scenario IMO be good enough to put them on the 1 line even if they win their next 4 games.

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[Alsacs]

So you're saying there's a chance?

The scenario I prescribed is so unlikely I don't consider it happening that is why I said they have no chance. I think the committee would still give the nod to Kansas or Wisconsin if they lost in their tournament final. My reasoning is that if UVA knocked Syracuse again then it would make their 2 wins over us look even less impressive since we would fall to the 2 line and the same would apply if they beat Duke as well.

Miami won the ACC regular season and postseason tournament last year and actually had a win over a good Michigan State in the regular season, but had several bad losses in the non-conference and they were given a 2 seed. The committee looks at your entire resume not how you played in conference play in what would easily determined as the easiest conference schedule for any of the top 4 teams in that conference.

 

[Madbiker]

If we are in the East as a 2 I'm all for it. I still do not see how Kansas's extra wins against the top 50 over rate their extra losses against the top 50 when compared to us. This is all what have you done lately from the media. If we win the next 3 we should still be a 1 seed IMO. 29-4 if we win the 2nd game against a good team in the ACCT then we are a lock in that situation. Kansas is sitting at 22-7 right now and is more likely to lose another than they are to win out.

12-7 vs top 50 is 63%
7-2 vs top 50 is 78%

Kansas's schedule is being over weighted compared to their results. There is no completely fair way to compare things without some objectivity coming in but its not like we have such a limited sample size against good teams. Its just that KU has such a ridiculous number of good teams that they have played. Its an outlier for tough schedules not just this season but in any season. I get that and honestly give them 2 less losses and I'd say sure a lock to be ahead of SU at 14-5 still a lower percentage. One less win and it could be pretty close but we have played 9 top 50 teams and won 7 games not too shabby.

You can bet the ranch that if SU was sitting at 12-7 vs the top 50 RPI there is NO way they would be considered for a #1 seed. And a #2 seed would be iffy. The focus would be on the 7 loses. Total double standard that you get in college athletics.

 

[rrlbees]

The scenario I prescribed is so unlikely I don't consider it happening that is why I said they have no chance. I think the committee would still give the nod to Kansas or Wisconsin if they lost in their tournament final. My reasoning is that if UVA knocked Syracuse again then it would make their 2 wins over us look even less impressive since we would fall to the 2 line and the same would apply if they beat Duke as well. Miami won the ACC regular season and postseason tournament last year and actually had a win over a good Michigan State in the regular season, but had several bad losses in the non-conference and they were given a 2 seed. The committee looks at your entire resume not how you played in conference play in what would easily determined as the easiest conference schedule for any of the top 4 teams in that conference.

I know what the NCAA looks at, you don't have to explain it to me. And UVA will be in the discussion if they win out.

 

[Alsacs]

You can bet the ranch that if SU was sitting at 12-7 vs the top 50 RPI there is NO way they would be considered for a #1 seed. And a #2 seed would be iffy. The focus would be on the 7 loses. Total double standard that you get in college athletics.

To be fair while I agree we wouldn't be a 1 seed in 2011 we were a 3 seed and just barely below the 2 line with a 26-7 record because of how good the Big East was that year with 11 NCAA Tournament teams.

The Big XII did well i the non-conference so it over-inflated their RPIs so that when conference season started unless you lose to Texas Tech or TCU your RPI isn't going to suffer if you protect home court and beat Texas Tech and TCU on the road.

 

[Alsacs]

For the record I have liked UVA's team the whole season, but they just don't have the profile of a 1 seed. UVA as a 2 seed could still win the whole damn thing, but their resume doesn't have the scalps to earn a 1 seed, but I concede neither does Wichita State and everyone is predicting they will get a 1 seed just because they are undefeated.