As another Bills season has basically come to a close I thought I'd add my two cents.
Going into the season I've never ever been less excited for a Bills season. Rex lost me last year when he took one of the top 5 defenses in the league and turned it into a complete mess and blamed the players while doing so. Then in the offseason Rex doubled down by bringing in his brother... What?
Anyways the results this season have been pretty conclusive... Rex Ryan's D does not work in today's NFL unless you have at least one HoF db who can take away half the field and you have some really good safeties. The Bills have neither of those and Rex has completely failed to adapt his D and as a result any halfway decent QB at the Fitz level or above has basically destroyed the Bills. I've actually liked a lot of what I've seen from Lynn and his offense but that's been counteracted by seeing Tyrod get exposed as a pretty mediocre QB at best. He can win games with his feet at times but definitely not with his arm and that doesn't play in the NFL.
You can probably guess what I'm going to say next but it's time for Tyrod and Rex to both go. I'm not normally a knee-jerk guy but I do think when you know you know and with these two dudes there are fundamental issues that neither time nor more games and reps are going to fix. To quote dennis green, "They are who we thought they were" and that ain't going to change.
Here's the good news, the cupboard is not bare for the next coaching staff. The DB's are going to be okay as long as they are not asked to play on an island... I think the Bills need to franchise Gilmore if they can just so they don't have to spend a draft pick on a DB this year. The safeties are a disaster and need major upgrades but again also would be helped if they didn't have to cover for 7/8 seconds. I think there is talent between the d-line and the LB's, although losing Kyle Williams to retirement is going to be a huge hit and I think they need another LB as depth. I think Ragland can play and I am anxious to see him next year. The Bills need to go back to a more traditional 4-3 defense that gets some pressure on the QB.
The offense is stacked at RB, the o-line seems okay but definitely could use more depth. For the 17th year running the Bills need to find their franchise QB and they need some receivers.
I don't know what to do in the offseason though... the Bills need some stability but they keep striking out on coaches. I'm kind of on board with the clean house from top to bottom side. Whaley hasn't done enough to warrant staying in my opinion.
I don't really know how I feel about the team. Regarding a few of your points:
"Defense sucks if you don't have really good safeties". I'm not sure we can really say that for sure. The pass defense actually ranks among the best in the league this year despite the fact that the safeties have blown so many routine coverages. On a per attempt basis, the pass defense hasn't been nearly as good, but they still haven't been the issue. The issue is that they can't stop the run to save their lives. Kyle Williams, Dareus, Alexander, etc. have done a nice job of putting pressure on QBs, but this defense has been exposed in the run game.
You said "
would be helped if they didn't have to cover for 7/8 seconds. I think there is talent between the d-line and the LB's". These two statements would appear to contradict each other. How can the line and linebackers be playing that well if they're forcing the defensive backs to cover for 7-8 seconds? In reality, the Bills have been one of the best in the league in terms of rushing the passer this year. The defensive backs haven't had a tall task at all. I believe Buffalo is in the top 5 in the league in sacks.
Offensively, the undeniable holes on the team are:
RT
RG
WR
Tyrod is an adequate starting QB, but he could be improved upon if you get lucky in the draft. There isn't really a better option out there in terms of the upcoming free agent class though and personally, I'd be shocked if Cardale ever amounts to anything. So you're basically stuck between letting Tyrod walk and praying you get lucky in the draft, or you keep Tyrod and see if you can win an extra game or 2 to get into the playoffs. I'll understand either way they go there; it's a tough call given the contract.
McCoy is obviously great when healthy, but he's going to wear down sooner rather than later. If the Bills decide they want to move on from Tyrod and Rex, I would hope they decide to switch gears offensively and attempt to build around a passing attack while trying to get McCoy out in space more.
Sammy's great when healthy. Woods is a nice #3 WR. Buffalo needs a healthy Sammy and a #2 WR; preferably a big bodied receiver that can give the QB (especially if it's Tyrod given his weakness here) a big target over the middle of the field.
I'd probably lean towards giving Rex another year with the defense. Having adequate safeties and linebackers can really change things quickly and I don't think Buffalo is adequate in either of those areas. Alexander's been a nice surprise, but he's just been okay after the crazy hot start. Hughes is good. The other linebackers have been pretty atrocious and the safeties are even worse.
