Here's a really cool predictive tool called "AlgaeBracket"

[IthacaMatt]

You can slide a whole bunch of statistical variables around and then determine how that impacts the chances of every matchup in the bracket.

Algebracket

After playing around with this for a while, I think the single most important factor for us to do well is turnover margin.
If we can do very well there, we can beat a lot of teams, including Gonzaga.