I will keep this short since I have not seen a single second of Hobart play this year. All I do know is this year makes me extremely nervous. I think every year playing Hobart makes me nervous but this might be the best Hobart team we have seen in some time. The stats they have put up this season are pretty outrageous, with two 39 point scorers in Holden and Aslinian, a FOGO facing off at 67% and a goalie saving 57%. Now, all that said they have had a pretty easy schedule so far and have lost their only top-20 match up to Cornell.
I do think the biggest factor to this game actually doesn't have much to do with Hobart at all, but everything to do with how Syracuse comes out in the first quarter. Can this team finally play with some purpose at the opening face-off? Will they learn from their mistakes against Notre Dame and take each quarter seriously? Or will they continue to live dangerously and hope for more incredible finishes?
My biggest fear against Hobart right now comes down to the face-off x - Phaup has been incredible all season (70% right now, which I don't think he's gotten enough credit for) and I fear for where this team might be without him in the second half of games when he's been able to win possession after possession. Will he still be able to put up similar numbers against Pedicine? I don't think SU can count on tilting the field and will need to play a full 60 minutes to get this game won. The offense can't take a half to work out the kinks - they need to start attacking right away. The defense needs to react quicker and start playing with more focus right out of the gate. This will be a big test against a very good opponent.
Good thoughts as always Powell. I have seen Hobart play 2-3 times this year including large portions of the Cornell and St. Bonaventure games. Your assessment of their offense is spot on. Very very dangerous. They essentially run a starting 6 of 5 attackmen and Madonna from ESM and then they will bring in more traditional middies including 2 seniors in Mott and Avedesian to balance things out. Our friend Archer splits between attack and middie and I have seen him play behind or up top. There good inside and have some shooters who when they are on can connect from distance. The SU d is going to have their hands full especially Porter who I hope rebounds after getting pulled at ND.
As you noted Aslanian and Holden are the main two guys as you noted, especially Aslanian who has 26 assists (by far the team lead). Despite a decent height difference I think Mellen is taking Aslanian who he has matched up with before and done a pretty good job if my memory serves me right.. Mellen had a bit of an off game against ND so I expect him to be in top form Tuesday. If Desko prefers to put Mellen on Holden who is listed at 5'11 then I would 100% put Kenned on Aslanian and not even mess with Cunningham or some other potential matchup. Kennedy did a great job on Mullins from Rutgers and I want him on which ever guy Mellen isn't marking. BOmberry will take the big 6'4 frosh attack Knox who is almost exclusively a scorer at this point. Hobart has struggled at times versus zones this year as their shooting % can be bad and at times has been abysmal. They scored 18 goals against the Bonnie last Wed but they also took 70 shots. That said I am not sure SU playing zone is a real option. We historically have not played a a lot of zone and when we do it usually goes bad as our slide issues really get exacerbated. I guess its possible but I don't see it personally. Hobart also has a propensity for slow starts like we do so don't be surprised if this is a rock fight early. I am sure this will come back to haunt me especially if the SU D from the Rutty game or the 1st half of the ND game shows up but SU should far and away be the best defense Hobart has seen all year.
I share your concerns about Pedicine, he's a great FOGO (winning 67%) with experience against SU. Last year Varello took most of the draws and did OK. I think Phaup should be able to hold his own here, he really is playing well as you noted and was again excellent against ND. One thing in SU's favor is Hobart hasn't really seen many good opposing FOGO's and Pedicine takes pretty much every draw while SU can go to Varello as needed. Speaking of Varello he needs to stop violating the 1st draw he gets, I am pretty sure he has done that 3 games in a row. He struggled a bit against ND so I hope he bounces back tomorrow. SU should have a big advantage with wing play as Hobart has struggled their especially against Cornell. Also keep in mind that as bad as Cornell has struggled at the X they went 17 of 39 against Pedicine including 50% in the 2 half of that game (9/18).
As good as Hobart's offense is, there D can be just as bad. They were a hot mess against Cornell. It's hard to judge a team based off one game but that was the only top 20 game they have played this year so there isn't much to go off of. Cornell scored 19 goals that game and if they hadn't taken their foot off the gas probably could have scored 22/23+ despite going under 50% at the X. Hobart really struggled to defend the crease area against the big red. Now SU certainly has no attackmen near the level of Teat who they opted not to shut off and who ended up with 8 pts (6,2). Hobart has traditionally struggled to contain SU from the midfield which has opened up the attack. Trimbo and Curry need to have big games and Curry needs less sidearm shots and more over hand. A guy like Buttermore should also get some great looks. I kow Hobart has some injury issues on D and while their fans feel everyone will be back for SU it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Their goalie Lucchesi is pretty good with a 57% save percentage but he has had some injury issues and didn't start the Hobart game (gave up 8 goals in the 2nd half of that game.
Key for SU tomorrow is to play smart. Hobart has the propensity to turn the ball over a ton (22 against Cornell and an average of 16 a game) and while their current offense is the best I can recall in a long time they have a tendency to rush shots and struggle when forced to shoot from the outside versus transition and fast break looks where they are deadly. SU needs to play a much more complete game like they did vs Albany then a the last month or so where for a quarter or half we can't get out of our own way. SU needs their talent to shine in area where we have the advantage on paper ie depth, wing play, defense etc. Lipka/Buttermore need to beat Hobarts second SSDM period. Mellen needs to lock down whoever he has, whoever is drawing Hobart's third pole on attack needs to shine etc. This Hobart team is going to put up goals but we have seen elite offenses before (UVA) and held our own before that 4th quarter debacle. If SU can limit the turnovers, penalties (Hobart is deadly on EMO) and impose their will where we should have an advantage we can come out with the W.
