Hollinger's Draft Rater has Waiters as #4 overall prospect

[MyMeloMyMan]

Jonny's game is just a bad fit for the league. He thinks he's Russel Westbrook, but plays more like Lil Russie from Run's House.

 

[RF2044]

Not to mention that the triangle was the worst offense he could have been selected to run given his skill set.

Agreed. Rambis was a no-trick pony who was congenitally incapable of adapting the offense in any way for the "skills" of the roster he had at his disposal.

Flynn left school after two years and was at a point in his developmental curve where he was just figuring out what it took to be an effective lead guard. Triangle offense stifled his development, no question.

 

[44cuse]

Flynn left school after two years and was at a point in his developmental curve where he was just figuring out what it took to be an effective lead guard. Triangle offense stifled his development, no question.

Close to perfect case of a guy who left too early. Too early in the sense that another year of college would have been very beneficial to his development and game maturation. All things being equal...he may have made the correct call money-wise.

Donte on the other hand...that was just a flat out bad decision. I love Donte...better kid than most realize. But that was the wrong call at the time (long term) and the wrong call now.

44cuse

 

[RF2044]

Close to perfect case of a guy who left too early. Too early in the sense that another year of college would have been very beneficial to his development and game maturation. All things being equal...he may have made the correct call money-wise.

Donte on the other hand...that was just a flat out bad decision. I love Donte...better kid than most realize. But that was the wrong call at the time (long term) and the wrong call now.

44cuse

Agree on both counts. I had a great debate with jsshap [good poster] about Flynn's readiness level, in terms of his game. He felt like he was ready, I thought that the year of starting / playing extensively for around 40 games in college would have been of tremendous benefit to Flynn. Tough call, because as you point out his hype was sky-high, and that made it tough for him not to jump at the opportunity. And obviously he was drafted #6, so...

And no question--Donte made a bad decision. I wonder what might have happened if he his girlfriend hadn't gotten pregnant at that exact timeframe. That next season--when we were pretty good anyway--might have been a year where we could have challenged for the final four, with a PF with Greene's ability.

This is going to be unpopular, but on the flipside, you never know how teams will gel. Flynn was CLEARLY better than the guards we had in '10, but I doubt we would have been as good of a team with him predominating the ball instead of the unselfish, tremendously balanced offensive team we had that next year. And who knows whether Rautins would have emerged like he did, or if he would have deferred to Flynn. Team chemistry is very delicate.

 

[armory]

I don't watch the NBA for personal reasons, but I am not surprised by how his stock has soared compared to 3 months ago. The kid just has "it" - unbelievable natural talent (not just potential), complete body control, high end motor, naturally athletic body type, competitive attitude/moxie, confidence, performance under pressure/clutch, burning desire to win, youth, and (now) a healthy support group.

I don't know much about the NBA itself, but I do know plenty about the draft process. Make no mistake, NBA scouts put a lot of value in the above intangibles, and you'd be surprised just how much personality comes into play. There are certain attributes that carry over into all sports that have high correlation with professional success.

 

[44cuse]

Agree on both counts. I had a great debate with jsshap [good poster] about Flynn's readiness level, in terms of his game. He felt like he was ready, I thought that the year of starting / playing extensively for around 40 games in college would have been of tremendous benefit to Flynn. Tough call, because as you point out his hype was sky-high, and that made it tough for him not to jump at the opportunity. And obviously he was drafted #6, so...

And no question--Donte made a bad decision. I wonder what might have happened if he his girlfriend hadn't gotten pregnant at that exact timeframe. That next season--when we were pretty good anyway--might have been a year where we could have challenged for the final four, with a PF with Greene's ability.

This is going to be unpopular, but on the flipside, you never know how teams will gel. Flynn was CLEARLY better than the guards we had in '10, but I doubt we would have been as good of a team with him predominating the ball instead of the unselfish, tremendously balanced offensive team we had that next year. And who knows whether Rautins would have emerged like he did, or if he would have deferred to Flynn. Team chemistry is very delicate.

It really is one of those weird situations and I'm with you 100%.

Should Flynn have gone to the NBA?
-Readiness: No. Another season would have helped.
-Draft Position: Potentially better than what he would have been had he stayed.

The question in my mind would be: would Flynn have been ball dominant the following year? I tend to think he would have been, but not as bad as we think. BUT, it would never have approached the unselfishness (not say that JF was selfish, just a different type of game that that team ended up playing) that the team overall had.

Just makes AO going down that much worse. It sill makes me sick to my stomach. And yeah yeah...I love the BE Tournament too. But I hate it because it wasn't a truly necessary game and it came with a big time cost.

44cuse

 

[RF2044]

Just makes AO going down that much worse. It sill makes me sick to my stomach. And yeah yeah...I love the BE Tournament too. But I hate it because it wasn't a truly necessary game and it came with a big time cost.

44cuse

You and me both. Not that we would definitely have won the championship that year--I'm of the opinion that the NCAA tournament is all about matchups and that you also need a little bit of luck in at least one of the games--but there is no doubt in my mind that we get by Butler with a healthy AO, and Butler went on to the championship game, where they lost to a Duke team that was also beatable. So the opportunity was there for the taking, and we had a team that year that was up to the challenge before AO went down.

Having a team that can truly contend doesn't happen often, so to have that derail a season where we lost only three games in the regular season [two to Louisville], and had perfect chemistry on both offense and defense really stings even after a couple of years. Having Fab derail this past year's team stings for exactly that same reason. I hope that we don't look back on this years from now and lament that we didn't win that second championship in '10 or '12 because the stars never align again for us.

Dammit...

 

[44cuse]

You and me both. Not that we would definitely have won the championship that year--I'm of the opinion that the NCAA tournament is all about matchups and that you also need a little bit of luck in at least one of the games--but there is no doubt in my mind that we get by Butler with a healthy AO, and Butler went on to the championship game, where they lost to a Duke team that was also beatable. So the opportunity was there for the taking, and we had a team that year that was up to the challenge before AO went down.

Having a team that can truly contend doesn't happen often, so to have that derail a season where we lost only three games in the regular season [two to Louisville], and had perfect chemistry on both offense and defense really stings even after a couple of years. Having Fab derail this past year's team stings for exactly that same reason. I hope that we don't look back on this years from now and lament that we didn't win that second championship in '10 or '12 because the stars never align again for us.

Dammit...

That's a perfect characterization. Agree 100%.

Personally, I think I liked the `10 team more...just because of how unselfish they were and just how amazing it was to watch that team. Clearly a part of the difference for me is the turmoil this season, but just really liked that `10 team and what they were about.

I guess when I re-read that I am short changing this past seasons team, but that's really not what I mean. Both great teams.

44cuse

 

[moqui]

That's a perfect characterization. Agree 100%.

Personally, I think I liked the `10 team more...just because of how unselfish they were and just how amazing it was to watch that team. Clearly a part of the difference for me is the turmoil this season, but just really liked that `10 team and what they were about.

I guess when I re-read that I am short changing this past seasons team, but that's really not what I mean. Both great teams.

44cuse

I agree . . . the 2011-12 was terrific and historic, but I think that the 2010 team was a better overall squad, and I am certain that, with AO, they were the best team in the nation. Would they have won the whole thing? Who knows - as RF says, you never can tell with matchups, but I will always remember that two guys who know more about what it takes to win in D1 ball than just about anyone - Bobby Knight and Mike Krzyzewski - both said that Syracuse was the nation's best team.

 

[44cuse]

I agree . . . the 2011-12 was terrific and historic, but I think that the 2010 team was a better overall squad, and I am certain that, with AO, they were the best team in the nation. Would they have won the whole thing? Who knows - as RF says, you never can tell with matchups, but I will always remember that two guys who know more about what it takes to win in D1 ball than just about anyone - Bobby Knight and Mike Krzyzewski - both said that Syracuse was the nation's best team.

I rarely think we are as good as others on the board think (which is different than the normal SU fan). But in 2010, there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that we were the best team in the country at multiple points in the season. Doesn't mean we would have won the NC for all the reasons you and RF mentioned. But I know I have not ever felt that strongly about an SU basketball team.

44cuse

 

[OttoMets]

...Donte made a bad decision. I wonder what might have happened if he his girlfriend hadn't gotten pregnant at that exact timeframe. That next season--when we were pretty good anyway--might have been a year where we could have challenged for the final four, with a PF with Greene's ability.

This is going to be unpopular, but on the flipside, you never know how teams will gel. Flynn was CLEARLY better than the guards we had in '10, but I doubt we would have been as good of a team with him predominating the ball instead of the unselfish, tremendously balanced offensive team we had that next year. And who knows whether Rautins would have emerged like he did, or if he would have deferred to Flynn. Team chemistry is very delicate.

Great point in the last paragraph - superior talents don't necessarily add up to a superior team. Given how much the coaching staff has alluded to the fact that the 2007-2008 group was so difficult to control and coach, it seems highly unlikely that the 2009 team would've make a Final Four, with Donte (a nice kid) or without him. After two years of that foolishness, the coaches were only too happy to get rid of an underachieving group that was very loudly uninterested in playing defense.

 

[OttoMets]

I agree . . . the 2011-12 was terrific and historic, but I think that the 2010 team was a better overall squad, and I am certain that, with AO, they were the best team in the nation. Would they have won the whole thing? Who knows - as RF says, you never can tell with matchups, but I will always remember that two guys who know more about what it takes to win in D1 ball than just about anyone - Bobby Knight and Mike Krzyzewski - both said that Syracuse was the nation's best team.

The key difference between 2010 and 2012: the first team could (through 31 games as a complete squad) score at will in just about every way imaginable.

Defense wins championships, but Syracuse basketball seasons end, without fail, with scoring droughts (or, in one instance, with a net-cutting ceremony).

 

[RF2044]

The key difference between 2010 and 2012: the first team could (through 31 games as a complete squad) score at will in just about every way imaginable.

Defense wins championships, but Syracuse basketball seasons end, without fail, with scoring droughts (or, in one instance, with a net-cutting ceremony).

That's one of the things that made last year's team so remarkable, in my mind. Virtually no low post scoring, no knock down shooters [like the two we had in '10], and yet they were 30-1 at one point. Unbelievable season.

Still upset that Fab derailed that...

 

[OttoMets]

That's one of the things that made last year's team so remarkable, in my mind. Virtually no low post scoring, no knock down shooters [like the two we had in '10], and yet they were 30-1 at one point. Unbelievable season.

Still upset that Fab derailed that...

I never want to stoop to the level of knocking our players personally, but it'll be a long time before I can have any sort of rational thought about Fab Melo. He ---- that team.

We were dominating in a way that very few Syracuse teams do (2000 was kind of 2012-lite - good defense, potent but drought-prone offense). A lot of limited players gave a great effort and created a team that was way better than the sum of its parts.

(And, even forgetting about Fab for a moment, that was a Final Four team had we a.) not blown three easy layups, b.) not allowed a pair of runs during our dry spells, or c.) had even a mediocre crew of referees. Special group.)

 

[Knicks411]

That's one of the things that made last year's team so remarkable, in my mind. Virtually no low post scoring, no knock down shooters [like the two we had in '10], and yet they were 30-1 at one point. Unbelievable season.

Still upset that Fab derailed that...

No turnovers. If you just look at adjusted offensive efficiency, there was no difference between 2010 and 2012. (Almost literally, 2012 scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions, 2010 scored 118). 2010 scored more points per possession in BE play.

Which is crazy, but 2010 shot MUCH better (effective fg% of 57.6 vs 52.1), got more offensive boards (37.6% to 36.1%) and got to the line more. (4 more foul shots per 100 fga). But the 2012 team turned the ball over 16% of the time as compared to 21% for the 2010 team, and that's how you can make up the difference.

Was just thinking about this, the 2010 team scored a ton of points, and I think we'd all say they had a better half court offense than 2012, but the 2010 team turned the ball over a lot. So they got more good shots, but they got fewer total shots. There's something to be said for just not making mistakes.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

The key difference between 2010 and 2012: the first team could (through 31 games as a complete squad) score at will in just about every way imaginable.

Defense wins championships, but Syracuse basketball seasons end, without fail, with scoring droughts (or, in one instance, with a net-cutting ceremony).

I think people need to give last years team some time. Dion could go lotto (probable), Fab could have a decent NBA career (possible), KJo or Scoop get picked up (could happen), and CJ could make it (remotely possible). That would be quite a good NBA resume to add to the gaudy record. This team may look a lot better in hindsight if some of the NBA potential is realized.

It's hard to pimp a defensive team and the offensive stats do not match up. But already we are hearing how Dion was unstoppable. And it is true that for the second half of the season teams were playing stall ball against us from the get-go (Pitino admitted changing his whole game plan). Teams lived in fear of the SU fast break and game planned accordingly - to no avail.

Need to give it some time to let the orange mist surround this team.

 

[OttoMets]

I think people need to give last years team some time. Dion could go lotto (probable), Fab could have a decent NBA career (possible), KJo or Scoop get picked up (could happen), and CJ could make it (remotely possible). That would be quite a good NBA resume to add to the gaudy record. This team may look a lot better in hindsight if some of the NBA potential is realized.

It's hard to pimp a defensive team and the offensive stats do not match up. But already we are hearing how Dion was unstoppable. And it is true that for the second half of the season teams were playing stall ball against us from the get-go (Pitino admitted changing his whole game plan). Teams lived in fear of the SU fast break and game planned accordingly - to no avail.

Need to give it some time to let the orange mist surround this team.

That part is true, for the most part, and pretty neat. And of course we'll really romanticize the team more as years pass (we always do).

NBA or not, though, it was a limited group: of the starters, a point guard who wasn't a great shooter and wasn't really athletically gifted, a two who was invisible as often as not, a three who played much smaller than his size and wasn't a terribly efficient scorer, and a center without any offensive post moves. On a team that had no consistent outside shooter. And for all the talk about Dion as an unstoppable neo-Wade (someone else in the other thread should take credit for this), that really doesn't jibe with what we saw all year: an electric open-court player who could get to the rim very effectively at times in the half-court but who disappeared for nearly a month and had pretty bad shot selection at inopportune times.

No doubt that this group could look a lot better in hindsight. Those who will look the best, though, have likely only scratched the surface
of their potential.

 

[RF2044]

No turnovers. If you just look at adjusted offensive efficiency, there was no difference between 2010 and 2012. (Almost literally, 2012 scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions, 2010 scored 118). 2010 scored more points per possession in BE play.

Which is crazy, but 2010 shot MUCH better (effective fg% of 57.6 vs 52.1), got more offensive boards (37.6% to 36.1%) and got to the line more. (4 more foul shots per 100 fga). But the 2012 team turned the ball over 16% of the time as compared to 21% for the 2010 team, and that's how you can make up the difference.

Was just thinking about this, the 2010 team scored a ton of points, and I think we'd all say they had a better half court offense than 2012, but the 2010 team turned the ball over a lot. So they got more good shots, but they got fewer total shots. There's something to be said for just not making mistakes.

Exactly--and this past year's team was exceptional at taking care of the ball. I posted about this in another thread recently, but that singlehandedly won us a couple of close games last year--no doubt in my mind. Scoop, Dion, and Triche might not have been the top backcourt unit we've ever had talent wise, but the did a tremendous job taking care of the ball. That's one of my biggest concerns about next year's group of guards.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, and the TO thing always seemed to be a problem for recent SU teams.

MCW had a turnover rate of 19% last year, but A) he was a freshmen, and B) the sample is so small. But it was significantly lower than Scoop's TO rate. We're losing Kris and Dion, who both were great at protecting the ball. Southerland and Fair, who may be the forwards, didn't turn it over a lot, but neither guy, especially James, created a whole lot.

Kenpom does a player comp thing based on guy's stats for the year. The #1 comp for MCW was Ty Lawson as a frosh. Like I said, the sample is so small, you don't want to put too much stock in it, but needless to say, I would sign up for Ty Lawson's SO and JR years out of MCW the next 2 years.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Exactly--and this past year's team was exceptional at taking care of the ball. I posted about this in another thread recently, but that singlehandedly won us a couple of close games last year--no doubt in my mind. Scoop, Dion, and Triche might not have been the top backcourt unit we've ever had talent wise, but the did a tremendous job taking care of the ball. That's one of my biggest concerns about next year's group of guards.

That great ability to take care of the ball is often overlooked in the criticism of JB not playing MCW enough last year. Hard to factor in the difference but it could have been costly.

I think we should be decent next year, an improved MCW and BT. Need some good new blood for '13-'14 though.

 

[moqui]

That great ability to take care of the ball is often overlooked in the criticism of JB not playing MCW enough last year. Hard to factor in the difference but it could have been costly.

I think we should be decent next year, an improved MCW and BT. Need some good new blood for '13-'14 though.

it's also one of the reasons why many fans are not giving Scoop his due . . . he didn't put up the gaudy and obvious offensive numbers of former greats, but as the lead guard he orchestrated one of the very finest seasons in SU history. I think Scoop had a brilliant senior season even without the numbers, and I think that is why he is going to get a real shot at making the NBA as a UFA. Efficiently running an offense is one of those role player/niche skills that Eric Musselman spoke about.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

it's also one of the reasons why many fans are not giving Scoop his due . . . he didn't put up the gaudy and obvious offensive numbers of former greats, but as the lead guard he orchestrated one of the very finest seasons in SU history. I think Scoop had a brilliant senior season even without the numbers, and I think that is why he is going to get a real shot at making the NBA as a UFA. Efficiently running an offense is one of those role player/niche skills that Eric Musselman spoke about.

I think you're right about Scoop. I suffer from this too. I am not sure why, maybe the earlier years. I thought his decision making, ball control were questionable. When he made an error (like end of first half vs Wisky), it sticks with me. I never fully trusted him, that was a shame.

Never bought into his "he'll make 'em when they count" nonsense either. That is, until you showed me some pesky facts (but in my defense they all should have counted).

My apologizes to Scoop. I'll like him even better as time passes and I can reflect back. An additional part of his legacy may be in the extra year we get out of Whitehot - I think I'll be liking that too.

 

[br801]

My apologizes to Scoop. I'll like him even better as time passes and I can reflect back. An additional part of his legacy may be in the extra year we get out of Whitehot - I think I'll be liking that too.

No way we get that extra year from Cooney. In fact, I've heard rumblings that he is already the second best guard on the team (behind MCW) and that he could be NBA-bound after the upcoming season if he is not Boheimed.

 

[reedny]

No turnovers. If you just look at adjusted offensive efficiency, there was no difference between 2010 and 2012. (Almost literally, 2012 scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions, 2010 scored 118). 2010 scored more points per possession in BE play.

Which is crazy, but 2010 shot MUCH better (effective fg% of 57.6 vs 52.1), got more offensive boards (37.6% to 36.1%) and got to the line more. (4 more foul shots per 100 fga). But the 2012 team turned the ball over 16% of the time as compared to 21% for the 2010 team, and that's how you can make up the difference.

Was just thinking about this, the 2010 team scored a ton of points, and I think we'd all say they had a better half court offense than 2012, but the 2010 team turned the ball over a lot. So they got more good shots, but they got fewer total shots. There's something to be said for just not making mistakes.

Interesting comparison. The two teams were close in many areas (offensive efficiency as you mentioned, scoring margain, steals, blocks), but a couple of notable differences. The 10 team had better outside shooting (.391 versus .349 for the 12 team), and was stronger on the glass (+4.3 rb margain versus -1.7 for the 12 team). At the same time, as you note in percentage format, the 12 team had a lot fewer TO's (10.5 compared to 15.2 for the 10 team, by mean not adjusting for possessions).

I doubt the current roster will match these numbers. We have a sophomore PG taking over with virtually no experience running the team in conference games. Also, our inside offense and defense are dependent on a freshman center playing along side an underachieving PF (this is the converse of the 11 team, with an experienced RJ playing along side frosh Melo). On a more positive note, for the first (or second, by edit) time in about 20 years, we have 3 starters (MCW, Rak and DC2) that are McD AA's. This sets up an interesting "talent versus experience" comparison between the 13 team and more experienced squads for 10 and 12. I doubt 13 will compare favorably.

 

[OttoMets]

...On a more positive note, or the first time in about 20 years, we have 3 starters (MCW, Rak and DC2) that are McD AA's. This sets up an interesting "talent versus experience" comparison between the 13 team and more experienced squads for 10 and 12. I doubt 13 will compare favorably.

Sadly, it's only the first time in five years. Here's hoping the 2013 season turns out better than the Donte/Devendorf/Flynn season did.