Would I be wrong to suggest that we've reached a point here where even if everyone comes to their senses and decides to stays put that a gesture is needed to bring the FSU/Clemson alumni and supporters down from the ledge? I think common sense will fall short of appeasing some of these folks (some of whom are in very high places) and justly or unjustly the only way to get them put down their pitchforks and torches is to give them a sacrifice. It's a Arab Spring situation here where we've reached a point of no return and perhaps el presidente Swofford needs to go.
How can we calm the panic?
- Thread starter supp
- Start date
Moontan
2017 ESPN College Bowl Pick’em Winner
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2011
- Messages
- 10,104
- Like
- 9,891
The "easy" thing to do is for ESPN to add an extra "look in" 1 year after the Big Math and SEC deals have been redone.
This way the ACC contract should be on par with the Big Math's deal. It wouldn't be apple-to-apples but should reduce the fear that the ACC will be left in the dust by all other conference TV deals.
This way the ACC contract should be on par with the Big Math's deal. It wouldn't be apple-to-apples but should reduce the fear that the ACC will be left in the dust by all other conference TV deals.
Chip
Creature of Bad Habits
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
- Messages
- 28,322
- Like
- 75,878
The panic will calm as time passes and nothing happens. Of course that will send the media into a depression so who knows what scenarios they will dream up. But as the news dies down, the bowl game becomes just that, a bowl game. Not the consolidation of 4 super conferences that so many think they want.
K
kingottoiii
Guest
Which is why I did not understand the ACC coming to terms already. SU and Pitt do not join the ACC until July 2013. So why be the first (again) to come to terms on a contract? Wouldn't it have been better to do this deal in May 2013 than 2012?
I don't think everyone understands that the issues are not just the ESPN contract. Here are the issues:
1) The ACC would have a hard time forming a conference network, which adds considerably to a conference. These are Tier 3 rights. The problem is not ESPN has tier 3 rights for ACC, but is there an alternative?
2) The collapse of the BCS means the major bowls are agents and conferences can set up their own bowls. This means the shared BCS bowl payouts are gone and it will be up to each conference to arrange their deals. ACC's $$s will be well below SEC, Big 12, and Big 12.
3) If we are headed to 4 power conferences, the existing football powers outside of the potential power conferences can't afford to wait to see if the power conference theory will play out. They are being forced to make a decision.
4) Home attendance. You have to decide which conference will be most attractive to your fan base and will bring visitors to your stadium.
You add all of these issues up and for an existing football power like FSU, they really have no choice but to run the analysis. With their main rival being Florida with a huge financial advantage, I have a hard time seeing how they can justify staying in the ACC.
1) The ACC would have a hard time forming a conference network, which adds considerably to a conference. These are Tier 3 rights. The problem is not ESPN has tier 3 rights for ACC, but is there an alternative?
2) The collapse of the BCS means the major bowls are agents and conferences can set up their own bowls. This means the shared BCS bowl payouts are gone and it will be up to each conference to arrange their deals. ACC's $$s will be well below SEC, Big 12, and Big 12.
3) If we are headed to 4 power conferences, the existing football powers outside of the potential power conferences can't afford to wait to see if the power conference theory will play out. They are being forced to make a decision.
4) Home attendance. You have to decide which conference will be most attractive to your fan base and will bring visitors to your stadium.
You add all of these issues up and for an existing football power like FSU, they really have no choice but to run the analysis. With their main rival being Florida with a huge financial advantage, I have a hard time seeing how they can justify staying in the ACC.
Scooch
Living Legend
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
- Messages
- 16,295
- Like
- 53,023
Just a couple thoughts..
On #3, this isn't a reason, it's conjecture. Even *if* a 4X16 power conference setup was inevitable (and it's not) that means at this very moment there are 16 "open spots" across the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and Big XII. If they need to, a school like FSU will find a new home with ease. They don't need to rush into anything.
On #4, what would FSU's home slate really look like. If the Big XII moved back to a divisional set-up you know that Texas & Oklahoma would be in separate divisions. So they'd get 1 every-other-year, and the other who knows when. Who else in the Big XII is such a massive draw in Tallahassee? OK State? Maybe if they're top 5, but they have absolutely no history of being able to maintain that level of success. Baylor? Iowa State? West Virginia? TCU?... please. Again, these schools are draws if, and only if, they are top 10 caliber, otherwise they don't offer any more inherent appeal than the mid-tier of the ACC (if not less).
Look, FSU can decide to do whatever, but when you take more than a cursory glance at things, the decision is not nearly as cut-and-dried as people make it out to be.
#3 is one of the top reasons! FSU has only one place to go if they leave the ACC, which is the Big 12. They are not going to the Big 1G, Pac 12, and probably not the SEC. There could be anywhere from 2 to 6 spots in the Big 12. We don't know. You would have to think that FSU would like a voice in making over the Big 12 so it's most attractive to them. In other words, FSU would probably want to add neighbors to go to the Big 12 with them like Clemson, GT, Miami,... In addition, we may not see 16 school power conferences as the Big 1G and Pac 12 could stay at 12 and SEC could stay at 14. We don't know.
As for #4, have you looked at FSU's home ACC schedule this year? Wake Forest, Clemson, BC, and Duke. Think that excites the fan base? L
et's compare football schools that FSU could play in the two conferences (and assume Clemson goes with them)
Texas/Virginia Tech
Oklahoma/Miami
Clemson/Clemson
West Virginia/GT
Oklahoma St./UNC
Texas Tech/NC St.
Oklahoma St./Virginia
Kansas St./Maryland
Kansas/Syracuse
Baylor/BC
Iowa St./Pitt
And don't forget Duke and WF in the ACC.
The top is better in the Big 12 with Texas/Oklahoma/West Virginia > VT/Miami/GT. The middle is about the same and the bottom with Duke and Wake Forest in the ACC is better in the Big 12.
K
kingottoiii
Guest
You are crazy if you think the B12 expands without FSU. So what is the danger in FSU waiting? In addition the B12 has SIX slots to fill. The only option is ACC teams. So FSU will be happy.
There are lots of questions for all of us and nobody has the answers, so each school has to run scenarios. None of us know (and neither does FSU) that the end game is 16 teams. It may not be. If the B12 decides to go to 12 because they want a conference tournament and FSU doesn't want in, they could add schools such as Louisville, Pitt, Cincy, or BYU. FSU does not know if the ACC will try to hold the conference together by demanding a grant of rights. The last thing the Big 12 wants is for the ACC to get their act together and limit the Big 12's option of expansion candidates, so if they want to expand, they will pressure the most attractive candidates. (Can't you see that the Big 12, specifically Texas, is trying to pressure ND to join the Big 12? I don't think it will work, but they are trying.)
Scooch
Living Legend
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
- Messages
- 16,295
- Like
- 53,023
I can't follow your logic. If the Big XII only expanded by 2, without FSU, then who are they adding? Louisville? USF? Rutgers? How does that make that league a powerhouse that it isn't already, one that locks FSU out of some big boys club? So you're suggesting that they jump to the Big XII because they might miss the train, but the train is waiting on *them*. Not one school that has switched conferences in the past couple years has done it other than as being a clear upgrade to where they were previously. FSU might jump but they aren't doing it out of fear.
As to #4, how would that ACC home schedule be any different than if they were playing Texas, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State. One marquee team (like when they play Clemson or Miami or VaTech) and a whole lot of "meh". They're going to jump leagues to sell 5K more tickets every other year? Again, they may jump, but that's not why.
*edit* FWIW, FSU has always had attendance issues. Even in their heyday Bowden would complain that they didn't sell out for the scrubs on their schedule. Doak Campbell is a HUGE stadium, probably 10K seats too big relative to the size of their fanbase. Just a quick search shows that in 1999, the year FSU won a national title, they averaged 78,725 per game, which is almost 2K short of capacity. FSU is not UF.
*edit 2* Last year FSU averaged 77,842, and that's without playing UF at home. So that ACC schedule isn't exactly killing them.
K
kingottoiii
Guest
You believe that the B12 will expand for some combo of those 4 teams? And you believe that ND would have any interest in the B12? :crazy:
A Big 12 with FSU and say Clemson is not a much better football conference than the current ACC? It's not even close. And, it appears the paydays are going to be much better. How is FSU pressured? They are at a big financial disadvantage to schools in the SEC and Big 1G and soon the Big 12. Do you think they want the ACC to try a grant of rights to lock up the existing schools given it locks in a much lower payout? Don't you think FSU, if they decide to defect, wants to help choose who goes with them?
As for attendance, you picked the bottom 3 Big 12 schools plus Texas. FSU has suffered a declining trend for year. As for 2011's attendance, FSU played Oklahoma at home and drew 84,392 and Miami drew 82,322. There are at least 3 teams in the Big 12 that would pack FSU's stadium and if they took Clemson with them, that would be 4. By the way, FSU's attendance in 2010 was 71,270 with Florida on the schedule and Wake Forest, BC, North Carolina, and Clemson the home ACC schedule. Wake drew 61k and UNC drew 70k.
Chip
Creature of Bad Habits
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
- Messages
- 28,322
- Like
- 75,878
As a fan of an ACC school, if the Big 12 should expand to 12 by taking any combination of BYU, Louisville or Cincy, I think it would be the greatest news I have ever heard.
Someone tell Greg Swaim that's what they're thinking, so he'll post it as if it's real, and then we can watch all the twittering college football writers move the conversation that way.
I would think Louisville and Pitt would be attractive options. I would think ND wouldn't mind playing Pitt in football every year as they are already doing it and they have been in a conference with Louisville for all of their Olympic sports, so they don't seem to mind playing them.
It would be the best news for ACC schools not named Florida St. Unless the ACC goes to an unequal revenue share it wouldn't change FSU's revenue problem.
javadoc
All American
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 5,683
- Like
- 7,897
Revenue problem, or spending problem?
All of college athletics have a spending problem! But, when your neighbors have more revenues, you think you have a revenue problem.
