Howard and Battle

[OrangeDW]

Carey should score a lot more than that, but I’m not sure who I’d take away points from based on your list though

I thought about that too, but then I see veteran Howard and Battle and think about how Dion Waiters came into a team with Triche and Scoop already entrenched, and he averaged around 6 ppg as a freshman.

 

[OttoMets]

I thought about that too, but then I see veteran Howard and Battle and think about how Dion Waiters came into a team with Triche and Scoop already entrenched, and he averaged around 6 ppg as a freshman.

Yep - when making predictions, history's usually our friend.

 

[OrangeDW]

Yep - when making predictions, history's usually our friend.

Yup. Another example - Gbinije averaged 3.4 ppg in 14.6 mpg in his first season at Cuse, after sitting out a year as a transfer. I know Hughes has gotten good reviews, but it’s possible that on a team with 5 returning starters that his numbers this year are similar to Gbinije’s as a soph.

 

[OttoMets]

Yup. Another example - Gbinije averaged 3.4 ppg in 14.6 mpg in his first season at Cuse, after sitting out a year as a transfer. I know Hughes has gotten good reviews, but it’s possible that on a team with 5 returning starters that his numbers this year are similar to Gbinije’s as a soph.

There are exceptions to every rule (and injuries can change everything), but I think we can draw some insight from the past:
-- The freshman guard with veterans ahead of him will have limited minutes and numbers.
-- The transfer wing with veterans ahead of him will have limited minutes and numbers.
-- No matter how skilled, the center won't put up big numbers.
-- No matter how skilled, the freshman shooter won't play much.
-- Fewer than 9 guys will play more than 350 total minutes.

Again, we've got a few Wes Johnson and Jonny Flynn counterexamples, but these things have been consistent 95+% of the time over 43 years.

 

[billsin01]

I think the team can score quite a bit more with Howard scoring about the same or even a little less.

Something like:
Howard - 11
Battle - 19
Brissett - 16
Marek - 9
Chukwu - 6
Sidibe - 4
Carey - 6
Hughes - 6

That’s 77 PPG which would be a significant jump...but that’s with Howard scoring a few PPG less. We definitely look to have more scoring options to where I don’t think we’ll need to rely on Howard as much.

I could see a scoop-type senior season for Howard where Carey comes in and snags a bunch of Howard's minutes and Frank plays a huge role, but it's in reduced minutes and not quite the role he played last year.

Scoop
Junior year: 32 mpg, 12.5 points, 10.6 FGAs, 6 assists
Senior year: 24 mpg, 9 ppg, 7 FGAs, 5 assists

Frank
Junior year: 38.4 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 13.4 FGAs, 4.7 assists
Senior year: Who knows, but I could see that be more like: 29 mpg, 10 ppg, 9 FGAs, 5 assists

Assists stay flat or improve based on more offense around him, points and minutes are down, but efficiency is up. Wouldn't be surprised by that.

 

[billsin01]

Hopefully they will be the best backcourt in the ACC but in order for that to be the case they will need to substantially improve from beyond the arc. Those #s were fugly.

Not sure about substantially -- we've had worse shooting years by far (MCW and Triche neither hitting 30% in a final four year). They aren't pretty but 35% from 3 with everything else those dudes do would make a really, really good backcourt.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I think the team can score quite a bit more with Howard scoring about the same or even a little less.

Something like:
Howard - 11
Battle - 19
Brissett - 16
Marek - 9
Chukwu - 6
Sidibe - 4
Carey - 6
Hughes - 6

That’s 77 PPG which would be a significant jump...but that’s with Howard scoring a few PPG less. We definitely look to have more scoring options to where I don’t think we’ll need to rely on Howard as much.

It's eerie how similar our projections are for scoring. I've got the following:

Battle- 16
Howard- 12
Carey- 5.5
Buddy- 1
Brissett- 15.5
Marek- 8.5
Hughes- 6
Braswell- 1
Chukwu- 5.5
Sidibe- 6.5

Total 77.5

 

[billsin01]

Carey should score a lot more than that, but I’m not sure who I’d take away points from based on your list though

Well, remember that would be in roughly 20 mpg so it would be more like a 12 per 40 number which is pretty solid for a frosh.

 

[NineOneSeven]

However, I do think it's more likely our total ppg is closer to 70 than 80, because I think our defense will be legit and could hold a lot of teams to the 50s.

 

[bpo57]

Not sure about substantially -- we've had worse shooting years by far (MCW and Triche neither hitting 30% in a final four year). They aren't pretty but 35% from 3 with everything else those dudes do would make a really, really good backcourt.

You can possibly tolerate one of your guards shooting in the low 30s but when they both do that's a problem. The best teams in the country usually have at least one of their guards over 40% and possibly even more than that. 35% is still kinda mediocre and the overall FG% last year was nothing to write home about either. That said, Battle, to his credit, gets to the line a lot (like Brisset) and was 84% from the line. A reduction in TOs wouldn't hurt the cause either.

 

[721Comstock]

Not sure about substantially -- we've had worse shooting years by far (MCW and Triche neither hitting 30% in a final four year). They aren't pretty but 35% from 3 with everything else those dudes do would make a really, really good backcourt.

Yes, this.

Our Big Three shot 33% from 3. That's not terrible.
Bumping that up to 35-37% range, due to less desperation shots and better teammates creating more openings should help everybody play better on O this year.

We don't need them to shoot 40%, although it'd sure help!
We had GREAT shooting the prior year w/ AWIII, JG, and Rico, and what did it get us?

 

[OrangeDW]

You can possibly tolerate one of your guards shooting in the low 30s but when they both do that's a problem. The best teams in the country usually have at least one of their guards over 40% and possibly even more than that. 35% is still kinda mediocre and the overall FG% last year was nothing to write home about either. That said, Battle, to his credit, gets to the line a lot (like Brisset) and was 84% from the line. A reduction in TOs wouldn't hurt the cause either.

Battle was 36-37% from 3 as a freshman. I think he can do that again. I think Brissett has the stroke to be high 30’s too.

 

[RF2044]

However, I do think it's more likely our total ppg is closer to 70 than 80, because I think our defense will be legit and could hold a lot of teams to the 50s.

I think 75 is a perfectly reasonable expectation, given improved depth, adding more shooters, more offensive versatility in the form of Hughes / Carey, perhaps some improved inside scoring if Sidibe bounces back, and more collective offensive efficiency as a function of all of the above.

It doesn't mean that all of our offensive woes from last year magically go away, but I think that the offense is going to be less of a struggle next year. This year, we had three guys who could score. Next year, we could have numerous guys get double figures any given game.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Battle was 36-37% from 3 as a freshman. I think he can do that again. I think Brissett has the stroke to be high 30’s too.

Howard and Brissett actually shot better in conference than out of conference. 36 and 38%.

Battles percentages have dipped in conference play both years. 34 and 30%

 

[SoBeCuse]

I think 75 is a perfectly reasonable expectation, given improved depth, improved shooting, the addition, of more offensive versatility in the form of Hughes / Carey, perhaps some improved inside scoring if Sidibe bounces back, and in general more offensive efficiency.

It doesn't mean that all of our offensive woes from last year magically go away, but I think that the offense is going to be less of a struggle next year. This year, we had three guys who could score. Next year, we could have numerous guys get double figures any given game.

Agreed. An infusion of speed as well is going to be a welcomed sight. Carey certainly but Hughes looks to be a solid athlete also.

 

[OttoMets]

However, I do think it's more likely our total ppg is closer to 70 than 80, because I think our defense will be legit and could hold a lot of teams to the 50s.

Agree with you. I firmly believe that Boeheim's come to the conclusion that good defense will get him farther than good offense and the pace of play will continue to be slow as a result. (Other factors contribute, too.)

So despite individual talent, I'd be surprised to see us scoring much more than 72 a game.

 

[billsin01]

You can possibly tolerate one of your guards shooting in the low 30s but when they both do that's a problem. The best teams in the country usually have at least one of their guards over 40% and possibly even more than that. 35% is still kinda mediocre and the overall FG% last year was nothing to write home about either. That said, Battle, to his credit, gets to the line a lot (like Brisset) and was 84% from the line. A reduction in TOs wouldn't hurt the cause either.

Yeah, I would love to see somebody at 40+ but I'm not really sure that happens. I think one thing that hurts everyone's percentages is that our offense, when it's good, generates a decent amount of open looks. When it's bad, there are very few open looks for shooters. I would argue that other offenses with more structure are creating some of those numbers by creating more open looks.

That said, we've certainly had guys shoot 40% or close to it, so hope it happens again this year. I agree on the FTs and TOs and overall FG% -- to be honest I'd take better overall FG% no matter how it happened, even if the 3-pt numbers were closer to 35 than to 40 or 40+. Any way you slice it, more efficiency should be the goal.

 

[billsin01]

Battle was 36-37% from 3 as a freshman. I think he can do that again. I think Brissett has the stroke to be high 30’s too.

Brissett was high 30s in conference play -- think around 38%. So I would not be shocked at all to see him around that number for the full season this year.

 

[billsin01]

I think 75 is a perfectly reasonable expectation, given improved depth, adding more shooters, more offensive versatility in the form of Hughes / Carey, perhaps some improved inside scoring if Sidibe bounces back, and more collective offensive efficiency as a function of all of the above.

It doesn't mean that all of our offensive woes from last year magically go away, but I think that the offense is going to be less of a struggle next year. This year, we had three guys who could score. Next year, we could have numerous guys get double figures any given game.

Dolezaj at the 5 is an interesting storyline, IMO. I know he's rail thin but if we're playing a team that is carving us up with a smaller lineup, which happens at times, this could be a good adjustment and that would give us five threats on the floor, which would obviously be a good thing.

 

[billsin01]

However, I do think it's more likely our total ppg is closer to 70 than 80, because I think our defense will be legit and could hold a lot of teams to the 50s.

Yeah and Frank tends to play a bit slower. but something in the neighborhood of 75 would be a massive upgrade.

The other interesting piece here is what the minutes look like in real games (don't care about early season blowouts). My best guess would be:

Center: PC (22), Sidibe (14), Dolezaj (4)
Forward: Hughes (26), Brissett (32), Dolezaj (22)
Guard: Howard (29), Battle (32), Carey (19)

This isn't to say that Washington/Bras/Buddy couldn't factor in, but just that I'd imagine they'd have to play their way in with really impressive pre-conference seasons.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Dolezaj at the 5 is an interesting storyline, IMO. I know he's rail thin but if we're playing a team that is carving us up with a smaller lineup, which happens at times, this could be a good adjustment and that would give us five threats on the floor, which would obviously be a good thing.

I think Marek at the 5 is something that looks good on paper and is a topic we like to discuss on message boards, but in reality will almost never happen. Now, if injury strikes, which is possible especially given the history of who we have at center, sure. But with 2 healthy legit centers, I don't see it.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Yeah and Frank tends to play a bit slower. but something in the neighborhood of 75 would be a massive upgrade.

The other interesting piece here is what the minutes look like in real games (don't care about early season blowouts). My best guess would be:

Center: PC (22), Sidibe (14), Dolezaj (4)
Forward: Hughes (26), Brissett (32), Dolezaj (22)
Guard: Howard (29), Battle (32), Carey (19)

This isn't to say that Washington/Bras/Buddy couldn't factor in, but just that I'd imagine they'd have to play their way in with really impressive pre-conference seasons.

I personally think Marek plays a lot more than Hughes, but Hughes is the big time wild card for this team, especially since he is capable of playing at different positions. Great depth guy. I don't know too much about him but I hear, as we all do, he is doing very well in practice.

 

[RF2044]

I think Marek at the 5 is something that looks good on paper and is a topic we like to discuss on message boards, but in reality will almost never happen. Now, if injury strikes, which is possible especially given the history of who we have at center, sure. But with 2 healthy legit centers, I don't see it.

I could definitely see it at the end of games, when we have a lead, want to close, and JB wants to put the five best offensive players out on the floor for FTs / more ball handling [with presumably Carey or Hughes subbing in for the center].

 

[Ceerqqq]

I firmly believe that Boeheim's come to the conclusion that good defense will get him farther than good offense and the pace of play will continue to be slow as a result.

I agree Boeheim believes good defense will get him farther than good offense even this year, but I don't see the pace of play continuing to be slow as a result of that emphasis. Actually, I see the opposite result this year.

Last year, defense had to be the key strength of the team, simply to give the 'challenged' offense a chance to stay in games. But this year he's starting out with a completely different team. Last year, most of the team had to learn how to play Boeheim's zone, so it was mostly a work-in-progress through most of the regular season.

By the time of the post-season, the freshmen were doing less "thinking" and the learning curve was finally starting to turn in a favorable direction. All of the team---including Frank and Tyus---heard JB's message that they needed to play defense with intensity the entire game---and not take any plays off. People forget how much teaching/learning happens over the course of a season and just how valuable experience really is in college basketball.

I think JB's defensive aspirations this year will center around forcing more turnovers, and that means more points. With a superlative effort on defense right out of the gate, that is what I expect to see this year. Playing together more intuitively---with an NCAAT level of intensity---early on should generate more turnovers and increase team scoring, and less concerns about PT from the starters.

I think the overall slow pace of play last year was due to the team's approach to half-court offense, not the team's emphasis on defense. I think Boeheim was using the Iso-ball offense last year (plus the decision to use the entire shot clock) to rest his front-line players while the team was on offense in the hope that the entire team would have the energy to play tough defense. With no bench, he had little other choice.

This year I sense it will be different. I think this year's edition starts off with the 'playoff' intensity they learned how to win with at the end of last year, and begins to put up significantly more points than last year, due primarily to better defense (and yes, individual player improvements).

The experience gained last year is going to produce big dividends this year. Better Defense and Offense performance. They'll be hungry to perfect their performance on the court to show all those 'better' teams out there that they've got what it takes to be the Top Dog this year.

Pretty hopeful? Yeah. But we've see JB do it before; we just need a few breaks on injuries, etc., to make it one of those best years ever...

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Carey should score a lot more than that, but I’m not sure who I’d take away points from based on your list though

True. I think maybe I have Hughes a little too high. Maybe Carey takes his points. Not sure, which is the best thing about this year!