I don't think the offense's problem is lack of playmakers

[Millhouse]

It's all counting. Just not as much production, consistent production to determine we have "playmakers" vs anybody good. Those "freak" plays against ND were just that. Hunt normally is incapable of making that kind of play vs a mediocre team so...

First post includes all the counts

 

[GoSU96]

It's all counting. Just not as much production, consistent production to determine we have "playmakers" vs anybody good. Those "freak" plays against ND were just that. Hunt normally is incapable of making that kind of play vs a mediocre team so...

He made those same throws against Maryland, ND, and less quantity against Lville.

They didn't even try to get the ball up field against Nova and CMU.

Capability is not the issue in the least. It was consistency.

To say he "normally is incapable" means you haven't been paying attention.

 

[007]

View attachment 27453
This is SU's ranking in plays greater than 10 yards, 20, 30 etc the last 4 years. We're not bad at getting big plays. Our problem is medium plays. This is just another way of saying what we already know, the passing game stinks.

I should've divided each bucket by number of games played because some teams have played 6, very few have played fewer. it's conservative, we might actually be doing better this year. if i do it by game, we're 70th in 10+, 38th in 20th+

ordinary 10-20 yard passes are a failure. that's scheme and coaching, not playmakers

View attachment 27453

First, big fan of the time and effort you put into data analysis. Even bigger fan of your sense of humor.

I'm not convinced about the validity of the correlation you are making between the data and it's relationship to "playmakers." Part of that is the ambiguity in trying to define play making ability, the other is the data used as a "measure."

I'm not sure if you are familiar with Football Outsiders Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), but I pulled some info:

SU's percentage of drives that average at least 10 yards per play for the season (normalizes chance gains of big yardage over time?) = .091%, which ranks 96th nationally.

If we look at SU's raw unadjusted offensive efficiency as a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position, they are ranked 104th.

If you use opponent adjusted measures of offensive efficiency (takes into account how good or bad the opposing D is), SU is a more respectable 69th, but still below the norm.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

If we define "Play Maker" as players drafted in the rounds 1 or 2 by the NFL, SU has had a total of 2 players drafted in the first or 2nd round dating back to 2004 season.

The numbers for our "peer" group for the same time frame: Pitt 9, BC 9, Rutgers 5, UConn 5, NCST 5, L'ville 7, Wake 2, and Duke 1.

If we look at the Pasqualoni Era, when SU went 107-59-1, we had 12 players drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.

Whether we choose to look at more sophisticated measures of offensive efficiency, or NFL talent, SU is woefully lacking in play makers.

 

[Millhouse]

First, big fan of the time and effort you put into data analysis. Even bigger fan of your sense of humor.

I'm not convinced about the validity of the correlation you are making between the data and it's relationship to "playmakers." Part of that is the ambiguity in trying to define play making ability, the other is the data used as a "measure."

I'm not sure if you are familiar with Football Outsiders Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), but I pulled some info:

SU's percentage of drives that average at least 10 yards per play for the season (normalizes chance gains of big yardage over time?) = .091%, which ranks 96th nationally.

If we look at SU's raw unadjusted offensive efficiency as a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position, they are ranked 104th.

If you use opponent adjusted measures of offensive efficiency (takes into account how good or bad the opposing D is), SU is a more respectable 69th, but still below the norm.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

If we define "Play Maker" as players drafted in the rounds 1 or 2 by the NFL, SU has had a total of 2 players drafted in the first or 2nd round dating back to 2004 season.

The numbers for our "peer" group for the same time frame: Pitt 9, BC 9, Rutgers 5, UConn 5, NCST 5, L'ville 7, Wake 2, and Duke 1.

If we look at the Pasqualoni Era, when SU went 107-59-1, we had 12 players drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.

Whether we choose to look at more sophisticated measures of offensive efficiency, or NFL talent, SU is woefully lacking in play makers.

defensive tackles drafted during our darkest time might not tell us that much about playmakers now

i think mcdonald single handedly killed any chance of having a high percentage of drives averaging 10 yards per play. predetermined bubble screens into coverage will demolish that. teams that score on drives averaging 10 yards per play might be taking it in for long scores, or they just might be better at finishing drives. i think mcdonald killed us here. i really hope to see less discrepancy between yards and points with lester at the helm

since we have a decent amount of big plays and don't have points to show for it, I would expect that the redzone incompletions kill that explosiveness measure

i don't see how any of that stuff can be isolated to "playmakers". that's why i'm looking at whether we have guys that can make big plays. we do, at least as much as the average team

 

[Full_Rebar]

Look at the lewis 50 yd pass last week and the West play at the end of the half. Any doubt the Maryland or ND kids dont score on both?

Actually I have a lot of doubt that anyone, outside of some NFL guys, would score on that play at the end of the half last week. West went up and got the ball between 2 guys- did you really expect him to make the catch, break both tackles and high-step into the end zone?

Tough crowd...

 

[upperdeck]

would you listen to yourself?

you saw 21 TDs that should've happened.

sooooo you think we should be scoring 51 ppg

i can't say that i'm surprised

i see plays that should be made if you want to be good. even if all 21 scored thats only 28 pts more per game. should we pretend the over throws and dropped tds and tds called back never happened? that alone is 7 td's. and those are just the obvious ones.

 

[upperdeck]

Actually I have a lot of doubt that anyone, outside of some NFL guys, would score on that play at the end of the half last week. West went up and got the ball between 2 guys- did you really expect him to make the catch, break both tackles and high-step into the end zone?

Tough crowd...

a faster WR would have had 1 more step and caught it at the endzone not the 3..

 

[upperdeck]

you know who led the nation in 70+ plays last year against FBS schools? Wyoming. Army Air Force Ball State were tied for 6th

the correlation between those plays and the yards per game gets weaker and weaker.

aside from baylor, who is amazing in every possible bucket, this stuff gets a little weird. oregon's not as high as you'd expect in any bucket. rutgers had the same number of 50+ plays

i just find it hard to believe that mcdonald is scheming guys open for ok numbers of 40 yard plays but they're not playmakery enough to take them to the end zone.

i don't have long TD play breakdowns though, don't have that data. I would bet PTG's home run percentage is as good if not better than Reyes's but that's just a guess

we have 11 20+ in 5 games runs this year. In 2012, we had 14 in 13 games. In 2011 we had 8 the whole year.

high scoring teams wouldn't be running 100 plays a game if they weren't getting tackled

reyes had 6 scoring runs over 50, gulley is at 3. Iwould think Reyes had more carries but didnt look for that number .

 

[Full_Rebar]

a faster WR would have had 1 more step and caught it at the endzone not the 3..

Wouldn't help to be in the endzone if the ball is at the 3 right? If you want to say Hunt's accuracy has cost a couple of long td's fine, but that play is not a good example.

 

[RF2044]

Wouldn't help to be in the endzone if the ball is at the 3 right? If you want to say Hunt's accuracy has cost a couple of long td's fine, but that play is not a good example.

Your assessment of the example is what's off. Hunt threw an intermedate pass to Lewis, who then ran it all the way down to the three. Upperdeck is saying that faster, more explosive player would have scored on that play.

He's not saying that it was a pass to the endzone.

 

[Ozcuse]

Great players can mask mediocre coaching and great coaching can mask mediocre players.

We don't have great coaching or great players right now.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Your assessment of the example is what's off. Hunt threw an intermedate pass to Lewis, who then ran it all the way down to the three. Upperdeck is saying that faster, more explosive player would have scored on that play.

He's not saying that it was a pass to the endzone.

Actually... I was commenting on West's catch at the end of the 1st half, and not the Lewis play. I agree that another player would have scored on that one.

 

[007]

defensive tackles drafted during our darkest time might not tell us that much about playmakers now

i think mcdonald single handedly killed any chance of having a high percentage of drives averaging 10 yards per play. predetermined bubble screens into coverage will demolish that. teams that score on drives averaging 10 yards per play might be taking it in for long scores, or they just might be better at finishing drives. i think mcdonald killed us here. i really hope to see less discrepancy between yards and points with lester at the helm

since we have a decent amount of big plays and don't have points to show for it, I would expect that the redzone incompletions kill that explosiveness measure

i don't see how any of that stuff can be isolated to "playmakers". that's why i'm looking at whether we have guys that can make big plays. we do, at least as much as the average team

I have the sense that you are undervaluing NFL level talent, and overvaluing "guys that can make big plays."

Efficiency formulas predicated on scoring margin and adjusted for the strength of opposing Ds at least take some of the subjective interpretation out of yardage gained. I think it's an oversimplification to exclusively conclude that our efficiency and explosive play ratings are skewed by McDonald's playing calling/red zone efficiency on the one hand, and yet conclude that simply counting the number of plays over X number of yards is undeniable correlated to having at least average playmaking ability.

 

[RF2044]

Actually... I was commenting on West's catch at the end of the 1st half, and not the Lewis play. I agree that another player would have scored on that one.

Okay, my bad then--sorry.

 

[anomander]

i don't think that's how people around here have defined playmakers when they're pining for them

Playmaker - (adjective). An athlete who regularly steps up to make a big play that your average player does not have the ability to make. This player should be a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. He also does not have to be an offensive player. A defensive playmaker is someone who is a threat to make a sack, interception, or forced fumble. Playmakers are those who have home run ability, and have a knack for stepping up to make a big play in a crucial situation.

At least that is my definition when I keep saying we need playmakers. I don't see anyone on our team with that ability.


I would also like to see how that data works vs peer competition.

 

[anomander]

And with all of that lack of competitive playmakers if we could have capatilized in the red zone (inside the 5 twice) the score would have been 31-19

Converting in the red zone is one of the most important parts of football. Our offensive play calling coupled with the lack of someone who can make has absolutely killed us this year. It became noticeable against CMU when we kept settling for field goals.

 

[AZOrange]

Converting in the red zone is one of the most important parts of football. Our offensive play calling coupled with the lack of someone who can make has absolutely killed us this year. It became noticeable against CMU when we kept settling for field goals.

taking it to the house to me is the key to being playmakers. I can't recall anyone on this team doing that. We get tackled inside the 10 and then can't score. To me 35 yard floaters down the sideline in the 4th down 3-4 scores are not "big plays". Ashton's drop against umd would have been.

 

[rrlbees]

a faster WR would have had 1 more step and caught it at the endzone not the 3..

We should only recruit the very fastest receivers so that doesn't happen again.

 

[GoSU96]

a faster WR would have had 1 more step and caught it at the endzone not the 3..

that is beyond ridiculous. It was an excellent play by both.

 

[Millhouse]

I have the sense that you are undervaluing NFL level talent, and overvaluing "guys that can make big plays." Efficiency formulas predicated on scoring margin and adjusted for the strength of opposing Ds at least take some of the subjective interpretation out of yardage gained. I think it's an oversimplification to exclusively conclude that our efficiency and explosive play ratings are skewed by McDonald's playing calling/red zone efficiency on the one hand, and yet conclude that simply counting the number of plays over X number of yards is undeniable correlated to having at least average playmaking ability.

Defensive tackles are very important. I think to much emphasis is on "playmakers"

 

[upperdeck]

that is beyond ridiculous. It was an excellent play by both.

so we can ignore the fact that he threw it to the wrong shoulder and that he pretty much hit hunt at his max reception spot, or that a faster WR would probably been able to catch it 1 yd further down the field if hunt hit him in stride too?
it was a nice play, but had hunt thrown it to the outside and not led him into the safety it had a better chance of being a play that led to a score.

 

[007]

Defensive tackles are very important. I think to much emphasis is on "playmakers"

Got it.

Concrete example. The Nova QB is a good example of a play maker, IMO. If every other variable remained the same, I wonder what he would do for our redzone scoring issues?

 

[anomander]

Defensive tackles are very important. I think to much emphasis is on "playmakers"

I don't see how you can be a top 25 team unless you have some playmakers. Go up and down the current top 25. Everyone in there has at least a couple big time players.

 

[Millhouse]

I don't see how you can be a top 25 team unless you have some playmakers. Go up and down the current top 25. Everyone in there has at least a couple big time players.

Agree and our big play totals reflect that. Playmakers aren't the reason we are below average we have enough of them for that. Who is even thinking top 25 right now?

 

[GoSU96]

so we can ignore the fact that he threw it to the wrong shoulder and that he pretty much hit hunt at his max reception spot, or that a faster WR would probably been able to catch it 1 yd further down the field if hunt hit him in stride too?
it was a nice play, but had hunt thrown it to the outside and not led him into the safety it had a better chance of being a play that led to a score.

Jesus, it was 45 yds down field with two guys on him and your complaining about what shoulder he threw it to?