if you told me

[jncuse]

I would imagine a good majority of the teams with 11-14 losses don't have many quality wins and likely have as many bad losses.

Hunch says we see more than the usually number of upset auto bids from crappy teams and that will burst a lot of bubbles this season.

Q1 wins, and Q1+Q2 record
We are currently 2-6, 5-11.
If we go 19-14, that record would probably be 2-7, 6-12

Compare that to the 6 teams below that are the first six out of the tournament..
NC St: 4-5, 9-9
Rhode Island 1-4, 6-7
Richmond 2-4, 4-6
Texas 5-7, 7-11
Miss St 2-7, 7-9
Purdue 4-11, 9-13

And we are not even considering that there are teams in as of now that could lose their spot, to 2 or 3 bubble busters.

Here are the last 5 in per the bracket matrix that are also in the equation
Cincy - 2-6, 9-6
UCLA - 6-6, 9-9
Utah St - 2-4, 4-6
Rutgers - 4-9, 8-10
Stanford - 5-5, 7-8

Not to mention, at 19-14, our Q1 wins lack a marquee element, and our NET is much lower than all of those teams. People that have read my posts know that I encourage people not to throw in the towel too early. But this is just not it.

As an aside, making the ACCT Final, with 2 more quality wins, is a much different scenario:
It's 4-6 instead of 2-6 (Q1)
Its 8-12 instead of 6-12 (Q1+Q2)
Its at least one extra marquee win
And our NET would be closer to acceptable.

At least at that point we are in the range of others.