For every Mikal Bridges there’s a Ivan Rabb. Or Marcus Smart. Or Chris Thomas. Or Terrence Morris. Or (soon to be) Miles Bridges.
Syracuse fans romanticize the college experience and playing in the Dome and act like relegation to the G League is a fate worse than death. I don’t think draft prospects see it that way.
No, they don't see it that way. That's the point -- these guys are told they are michael jordan for most of their lives. What we're debating is what the best path is. And, to be clear, if kids want to go, then go. It's cool.
But do people stop and do the math for the guys that aren't NBA-level players (and I absolutely feel there is a solid chance Battle is not an nba level player this year or next or the following -- I'm not really debating draft position)?
So let's say he gets drafted 40th. If he wants to go, cool. But people love saying 'YES!! Pay check!!!!' Well, that contract last year was three years at league minimum with two years guaranteed. So the two-year portion of that is ~$2.1M ($837K for rookie year, $1.3 i think for year 2). Pretty sweet. But don't forget that taxes at 35% make that about $1.4 over two years and another $200K for the agent make it $1.2M.
There are other expenses but whatever, we're looking at an AAV of $550 - $600K a year. Again, pretty freaking awesome. But, don't forget that these guys aren't grabbing a studio apartment and eating canned tuna every night while driving an '08 malibu. So they are spending a big chunk of that coin to live the life the guys who are making $15M around them are making. That matters.
If they turn into guys that can hang in the league for 5+ years awesome. BUT, if at the end of that contract, they end up in the G League for year three, the salary is either $19,500 or $26,000 for six months. Ouch. That's an extremely harsh dose of reality. So maybe then you make the move to europe or asia or maybe you give it a few years to try and make it to the nba. But let's remember, the list of guys who went to the G League and wound up as NBA regulars is extremely limited (Clint Capella is the only big name but he was from switzerland and they mostly used it as a transition tool for a guy who can run like a gazelle and jump out of the gym with good hands at 6'10".
Conversely -- if you stay and college and let's say you never get drafted. Europe is still an opportunity as is the G League. You didn't play for nothing, at least not for a kid like battle who actually goes to class. Cuse tuition is $43K. College graduates earn, on average, $23K more per year than their high school grad counterparts. And don't forget -- if Battle actually does get better and gets drafted higher (unlikely, but the possibility exists) or, gets drafted lower but is more prepared and mature -- it can still work out in his favor.
The point is -- you want to chase your dreams? Cool. You make it? Awesome. You get drafted -- it's an awfully nice nest egg. But the reality is you may be done with this whole experiment by 23 or 24 and there's a lot to figure out. I don't know -- I think there is more than one way to go about this.
