I'm going against the grain here...

[Scooch]

How much could I win if I put $20 on this notion?

 

[grepal]

...but I think we have an outside chance to win 6 of our last 7 games here.

Feb 11 @ Miami
Feb 15 vs UNC
Feb 18 @Pitt
Feb 26 vs NC State
Mar 1 @ VTech
Mar 4 @ SMU
Mar 8 vs UVA

The only likely loss is SMU. The other games we can win. 11-9 in ACC play is not out of the question.

Fire away!!!

It is possible, we need to play well but we do ok against the other mediocre teams. I see losses at SMU, probably Pitt, at VTech possibly as it is a road game. UNC at home will probably be a dogfight.

 

[Sherman20]

...but I think we have an outside chance to win 6 of our last 7 games here.

Feb 11 @ Miami
Feb 15 vs UNC
Feb 18 @Pitt
Feb 26 vs NC State
Mar 1 @ VTech
Mar 4 @ SMU
Mar 8 vs UVA

The only likely loss is SMU. The other games we can win. 11-9 in ACC play is not out of the question.

Fire away!!!

I think it’s certainly possible. But I think it’s more likely that we go 4-3, maybe 5-2 if we can knock off UNC or Pitt.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

We’re having one of worst seasons in 60 years vs one of the weaker schedules we’ve played in the past few decades. It really exacerbates how bad this team is.

 

[rocklloyd]

The bigger question is how many of those games will I remember to watch?

 

[FrancoPizza]

the standard industry initial quick 5 HARD NO filter employee hire questionaire :
1. do you have a criminal record ?
2. is the earth flat ?
3. am i an alien robot ?
4. have you seen BIGFOOT or a UFO ?
5. will syracuse win out ?

In fairness the stigma with UAPs is going away.

 

[jncuse]

Did we not just come off a home OT win against the second worse P5 team (per KP) in the country? And a humiliating loss against duke.

Not sure where all this optimism is coming from -- we can use some though. But this predictions seem questionable. Feel free to bump is we go 5-2 or 6-1.

 

[jncuse]

Based on Barttorvik, here are the odds and estimated lines for upcoming games.
Estimated wins, adding up all the probabilities is 2.4 wins. There are basically 3 pick em games (Miami, NC St, Virginia), and 4 games where we are the dog of 5 or more.

Eric15 set the over/under at 2.5 earlier in this thread, and if there was such an item to bet on, that would be exactly what the line would be set at.

 

[jncuse]

How much could I win if I put $20 on this notion?

$20 on each individual game -- you would win about $240, above the $120 you bet,
On a $20 parlay (if you could find it), I estimate $4,000 to $5,000 as shown below

----------

Using Barttorvik projected spreads as a proxy for lines, and some spread to money line converter (NBA , if we won the 6 games (excluding SMU).

Miami -105
UNC +170
Pitt +560
NC St -110
Virginia Tech +180
Virginia -110

So if you bet $20 on each of the 6 game, you would be up by about $240

But why stop there - find some bookie to take the 6 game parlay, and throw down $20 -- if you multiply all 6 games above the odds would be 350 to 1 against winning all 6. But they are going to give you a haircut -- say down to 200 or 250 to 1. So you could walk away with $4,000 to $5,000.

 

[Red2003]

Based on Barttorvik, here are the odds and estimated lines for upcoming games.
Estimated wins, adding up all the probabilities is 2.4 wins. There are basically 3 pick em games (Miami, NC St, Virginia), and 4 games where we are the dog of 5 or more.

Eric15 set the over/under at 2.5 earlier in this thread, and if there was such an item to bet on, that would be exactly what the line would be set at.

View attachment 249520

I think people are confusing whether we have a chance or not in games. Alot of these teams are just trending the wrong direction and we are just treading water.

Only Va Tech and UVA are playing better recently, all others playing worse (not SMU who is beating who they should).

The rest are basically, if we start like we did against Stanford or miss free throws like with BC we lose them all, if we play reasonably close to like we did at Cal all are probably wins except SMU. SMU will be another one of those 25 point blowouts to remind us where we are.

We are 5-5 in our last 10, Treading water quite literally to try and survive this season without more embarrassment.

Miami 1-11 in their last 12
UNC 2-5 with a 1 point Pitt win and a win in OT over BC
Pitt 2-7 wins over us and UNC
NC State 0-8
Va Tech 3-1
SMU 7-1 only loss to Louisville recently
UVA 4-2

 

[jncuse]

If we win out the regular season. Our quadrant win-loss record will look pretty solid for a bubble team. Problem is our net ranking will still sink because of the blow out losses (sound familiar to last season). Our only quad 3 or 4 loss atm is Georgetown without JJ. GTown can easily be a Q2 loss by March. We would also get a few more Q1/2 wins I think. We have 1 right now.

Didn't think we would see a "tourney" posts again this year!
But even if we go 7-0, there is zero chance we be a bubble team heading into the ACC tournament. Nothing in OOC, and a 12-8 record in the ACC doesn't mean much.

1) If we go 7-0 to end the year:

Q1 record = 2-7, with the marquee wins being against 2 teams currently "in the first 4 out" per the matrix
Q2 record = 2-5
Q1+Q2 = 4-12

That would not be solid quality win profile for a bubble team. Not really close.
And its not a NET issue. Its an ACC stinks issue that hurts the Q1, Q2 ... 12-8 in the ACC is not getting you anywhere.

2) Our NET this year was killed by our games against Q4 (Lemoyne, Youngstown, BC, Colgate). Not 2 blowouts against strong teams that were expected to beat us by nearly 20 anyway based on our current NET.

 

[Funk Doc]

I'll be honest, this season is the first in forever that I don't even go out of my way to watch the games, If I have time when they play, I'll tune in. I love the optimism of many in this group. Does give me some hope. Overall though, I don't have any confidence whatsoever in this team. The inconsistent offense is so difficult to watch, but not nearly as difficult as the complete inability to defend.

I hope very much so, that I am wrong. Cuse basketball needs to be good again!!!! I hate that I don't even get mad any more when they lose. Similar to being a Bills fan pre Josh Allen!!!

Go Orange!!!

 

[sufan59]

Didn't think we would see a "tourney" posts again this year!
But even if we go 7-0, there is zero chance we be a bubble team heading into the ACC tournament. Nothing in OOC, and a 12-8 record in the ACC doesn't mean much.

1) If we go 7-0 to end the year:

Q1 record = 2-7, with the marquee wins being against 2 teams currently "in the first 4 out" per the matrix
Q2 record = 2-5
Q1+Q2 = 4-12

That would not be solid quality win profile for a bubble team. Not really close.
And its not a NET issue. Its an ACC stinks issue that hurts the Q1, Q2 ... 12-8 in the ACC is not getting you anywhere.

2) Our NET this year was killed by our games against Q4 (Lemoyne, Youngstown, BC, Colgate). Not 2 blowouts against strong teams that were expected to beat us by nearly 20 anyway based on our current NET.

Yeah just interesting playing the what if scenario. But seriously though, the close wins against the Q4 is a major issue and hurt us a ton last year ( I believe that we would’ve been much closer to getting in prior to the NET). Losing those games is worse, but we need to win those by bigger margins, as if we did pull out all of the Texas, Texas Tech, and at ND games, we would still be in a rough bubble position because the net ranking would be low. We need to be a lot better in November moving forward. With the NET, it seems that starting out slow against the expected game margins in your Q3 and Q4 games is worse than going through a 2 or 3 game conference slump in January or February in Q1 and Q2 games where you get beaten by more than the expected margin.

 

[AcAndAc]

I suppose it is not impossible. Win out, end up 12-8 in conference and 18-13 overall. Win 2 or 3 ACCT games and you get up over 20 win threshold & be one of the hottest teams in the country. Losing the ACCT final to not get the auto bid would temper that though. But not impossible.

But it is also not impossible to win Lotto. The odds might be similar.

 

[Niastri]

...but I think we have an outside chance to win 6 of our last 7 games here.

Feb 11 @ Miami
Feb 15 vs UNC
Feb 18 @Pitt
Feb 26 vs NC State
Mar 1 @ VTech
Mar 4 @ SMU
Mar 8 vs UVA

The only likely loss is SMU. The other games we can win. 11-9 in ACC play is not out of the question.

Fire away!!!

If have been more optimistic if the Freeman announcement was that he was in full health and would be returning to the court tonight.

With what we're running out there, it would take Chris Bell becoming everything we'd dreamed to win out.

 

[Eric15]

Eric15 set the over/under at 2.5 earlier in this thread, and if there was such an item to bet on, that would be exactly what the line would be set at.

Yay this officially makes up for how stupid I looked trying to calculate free throw statistical probability the other day.

 

[Scooch]

$20 on each individual game -- you would win about $240, above the $120 you bet,
On a $20 parlay (if you could find it), I estimate $4,000 to $5,000 as shown below

----------

Using Barttorvik projected spreads as a proxy for lines, and some spread to money line converter (NBA , if we won the 6 games (excluding SMU).

Miami -105
UNC +170
Pitt +560
NC St -110
Virginia Tech +180
Virginia -110

So if you bet $20 on each of the 6 game, you would be up by about $240

But why stop there - find some bookie to take the 6 game parlay, and throw down $20 -- if you multiply all 6 games above the odds would be 350 to 1 against winning all 6. But they are going to give you a haircut -- say down to 200 or 250 to 1. So you could walk away with $4,000 to $5,000.

Awesommmme!

Guess I won't find this parlay on Fan Duel, eh?!