Interesting projection

[GooseMutt]

LOUISVILLE > FORUMS > THE YUM! > SAGARIN PROJECTIONS -- 2/25/17
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Sagarin projections -- 2/25/17
Yesterday at 12:52 PM

Louisville's Rank in Sagarin Predictor Ratings: 5 of 351
Louisville's Rank in Sagarin Overall Ratings: 7 of 351
Predictor Rating: 92.55
Overall Rating: 92.35
Projected final record: 28-8

*NOTE: Projected records are calculated by adding up the win PROBABILITIES of all games, NOT by counting the number of games in which a team is favored.


Game-by-game projections / win probabilities (Predictor ranking in parentheses):

(35) Syracuse -- Win by 12 -- 87%
@ (38) Wake Forest -- Win by 6 -- 72%
(25) Notre Dame -- Win by 8 -- 79%

ACC Tournament First Round: Bye
ACC Tournament Second Round: Bye
ACC Tournament Quarterfinals: vs. (28) Miami-Florida -- Win by 7 -- 76%
ACC Tournament Semifinals: vs. (10) Virginia -- Win by 1 -- 54%
ACC Tournament Championship: vs. (3) North Carolina -- Lose by 1 -- 45%


ACC Tournament: 1.54 wins, 0.74 losses
NCAA Tournament (2-seed): 2.40 wins, 0.96 losses


Projected ACC records (Predictor Ranking in parentheses):

(3) North Carolina -- 14-4
(5) Louisville -- 12-6
(25) Notre Dame -- 12-6
(17) Florida State -- 12-6
(9) Duke -- 12-6
(10) Virginia -- 10-8
(28) Miami-Florida -- 10-8
(35) Syracuse -- 10-8
(51) Virginia Tech -- 10-8
(83) Georgia Tech -- 8-10
(38) Wake Forest -- 8-10
(39) Clemson -- 6-12
(65) Pittsburgh -- 5-13
(88) NC State -- 4-14
(140) Boston College -- 2-16


Projected ACC Tournament Results (Seeds precede team names):

First round:
12-Clemson over 13-Pittsburgh by 3
10-Georgia Tech over 15-Boston College by 5
11-Wake Forest over 14-NC State by 6

Second round:
8-Syracuse over 9-Virginia Tech by 2
5-Duke over 12-Clemson by 8
7-Miami-Florida over 10-Georgia Tech by 8
6-Virginia over 11-Wake Forest by 8

Quarterfinals:
1-North Carolina over 8-Syracuse by 10
5-Duke over 4-Florida State by 2
2-Louisville over 7-Miami-Florida by 7
6-Virginia over 3-Notre Dame by 4

Semifinals:
1-North Carolina over 5-Duke by 2
2-Louisville over 6-Virginia by 1

Championship:
1-North Carolina over 2-Louisville by 1


Probabilities of ACC record:

13-5: 49.303%
12-6: 39.920%
11-7: 10.011%
10-8: 0.766%

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[adk(roc)CUSE]

How come we're behind Virginia and Miami in the seeding if we beat both?

 

[jdubs30]

How come we're behind Virginia and Miami in the seeding if we beat both?

I think with a 4-way tie (throw VaTech in there, who beat us) it becomes a little more complicated than just H2H I assume.

Also in that projection we would make the tournament field. Beating GaTech and VaTech.

 

[Chris02M]

Virginia is 1-2 vs the 10-8 group.
We are 2-1
VA tech is 2-2 with a game with Miami left
Miami is 2-1 with game vs VA tech this week

 

[Chris02M]

So I think the projected standings for the group are wrong

 

[Chris02M]

(3) If three or more teams are tied in the standings, the following procedures will be used:

a. The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4)

 

[Chris02M]

So in a 4 way tie at 10 and 8 we are looking at 1st(6) if Miami loses to VA tech.7 th or 8th if Miami wins

 

[Cuse23]

Thanks for pointing this out that it's wrong. Makes me feel a lot better about avoiding the 8/9 game (Noon start time) and UNC if we win in another Noon game.

However, what scenario do you see that we're 8th if Miami beats VT in that four way 10-8 conf record tie?

 

[upperdeck]

is FSU wins out you this close to a 6 way tie for 4th

duke 10-8 loses to UNC
su 10-8 loses to UL su beats GT
miami 10-8 loses to VT
vt 10-8 loses to Wake
nd 10-8 loses out or UL loses out
virg 10-8 splits unc/pitt

it wont take much for a 5 way tie

 

[Chris02M]

Thanks for pointing this out that it's wrong. Makes me feel a lot better about avoiding the 8/9 game (Noon start time) and UNC if we win in another Noon game.

However, what scenario do you see that we're 8th if Miami beats VT in that four way 10-8 conf record tie?

If Miami wins 4 way tie I think it would go to 3 way tie which VT wins since they beat us