Interesting Shrader data point

[GoSU96]

 

[MadNY3]

Technically, 7 of his 12 starts. He missed Pitt, which I'm presuming is one of the top 40 pass Ds.

 

[upperdeck]

are they good passing Ds or where the acc QBs maybe not as good as people thought?

 

[texascpa]

Anyway you slice it, Shrader is very underrated despite his good season last year.

 

[Cuse'91]

I have this nagging concern that we will miss Sean Tucker on offense, far more than what we think. Top priority for every defense we played against the last couple of years, was to shut down #34; that made everyone's job a lot easier. With the unknown quality of our running game, Shrader and OG are going to face the full teeth of opposing defenses this season.

 

[AngryOtto]

I have this nagging concern that we will miss Sean Tucker on offense, far more than what we think. Top priority for every defense we played against the last couple of years, was to shut down #34; that made everyone's job a lot easier. With the unknown quality of our running game, Shrader and OG are going to face the full teeth of opposing defenses this season.

As with the every season depends on the Oline . Defenses will still have to respect GS running ability so it will limit the blitz and require a spy. We will miss Tucker but I have a lot of faith in LA and the other running backs. I would like a rotation. Seems like DB only rides a primary rb and the others limited snaps. Even before Tucker it seemed the norm. Also if we have one more wr step up it will take a lot of GS and run game.

 

[RF2044]

As with the every season depends on the Oline . Defenses will still have to respect GS running ability so it will limit the blitz and require a spy. We will miss Tucker but I have a lot of faith in LA and the other running backs. I would like a rotation. Seems like DB only rides a primary rb and the others limited snaps. Even before Tucker it seemed the norm. Also if we have one more wr step up it will take a lot of GS and run game.

Agreed -- OLine has to do their part.

 

[sutomcat]

If you look at our schedule for 2023, here is how the opponent FBS team passing defensive efficiency shape up. Could not find a metric labeled specifically pass defense.

Colgate #97 (FCS)
Western Michigan #52
Purdue #91
Army #64
Clemson #46
UNC #115
FSU #22
VT #55
BC #80
Pitt #30
GT #47
Wake #99

So Garrett goes from facing 8 of 13 top 40 passing defenses to 2 of 12. 5 of the defenses are #80 or worse.

All things being equal, it should be easier to attack the defenses SU will face in 2023.

 

[sufandu]

I have this nagging concern that we will miss Sean Tucker on offense, far more than what we think. Top priority for every defense we played against the last couple of years, was to shut down #34; that made everyone's job a lot easier. With the unknown quality of our running game, Shrader and OG are going to face the full teeth of opposing defenses this season.

Sean was special, especially when healthy. No one guy will replace him. We need much better balance than we had last year. A couple more pass recieving threats will open up space for our running backs.

 

[Cuse'91]

Sean was special, especially when healthy. No one guy will replace him. We need much better balance than we had last year. A couple more pass recieving threats will open up space for our running backs.

Even when Tucker played "dinged;" he was a tremendous decoy to keep opposing defenses off balance. I'm hoping our rbs can get some early gash plays, if teams blanket the receivers, and dare us to run.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If you look at our schedule for 2023, here is how the opponent FBS team passing defensive efficiency shape up. Could not find a metric labeled specifically pass defense.

Colgate #97 (FCS)
Western Michigan #52
Purdue #91
Army #64
Clemson #46
UNC #115
FSU #22
VT #55
BC #80
Pitt #30
GT #47
Wake #99

So Garrett goes from facing 8 of 13 top 40 passing defenses to 2 of 12. 5 of the defenses are #80 or worse.

All things being equal, it should be easier to attack the defenses SU will face in 2023.

Hmm, might be time for some fearless predictions.

 

[CA Monk]

Offensive success is definitely predicated on the skill/competency of the offensive line. If another receiver can emerge, either a true tight end or a wideout, then maybe OG can be the decoy that Tucker was last year. Of course, we need competent running backs and we’ll see what we have seen enough. Kind of exciting, kind of nerve-racking.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Even when Tucker played "dinged;" he was a tremendous decoy to keep opposing defenses off balance. I'm hoping our rbs can get some early gash plays, if teams blanket the receivers, and dare us to run.

Not sure he was a decoy once teams figured out he was dinged up.

 

[djorange1989]

Not sure he was a decoy once teams figured out he was dinged up.

Agree and that was pretty early on, you could see he wasn’t the same after the Louisville game

 

[kcsu]

Sean was special, especially when healthy. No one guy will replace him. We need much better balance than we had last year. A couple more pass recieving threats will open up space for our running backs.

He wasn't himself for a minimum of 9 games. I actually think a healthy Allen will have an equal if not better year this season.

 

[SoBristol]

If you look at our schedule for 2023, here is how the opponent FBS team passing defensive efficiency shape up. Could not find a metric labeled specifically pass defense.

Colgate #97 (FCS)
Western Michigan #52
Purdue #91
Army #64
Clemson #46
UNC #115
FSU #22
VT #55
BC #80
Pitt #30
GT #47
Wake #99

So Garrett goes from facing 8 of 13 top 40 passing defenses to 2 of 12. 5 of the defenses are #80 or worse.

All things being equal, it should be easier to attack the defenses SU will face in 2023.

These are last year’s rankings. Maybe these are indicative if the teams have the same or similar pass rush, same or similar CBs. But, for example, we don’t have G Williams and Chestnut or Carter in the secondary, so past performance may not . . . .

 

[UpstateSM]

Everyday that passes I add like a tenth of a win to my expectations. We’re going to be a playoff team in my mind by mid august.

 

[Newhouser]

I think DCs last year said keep the QB in the pocket and make him complete a pass to someone not named Orande. I don't think Tucker kept people up at night.

 

[Scooch]

He wasn't himself for a minimum of 9 games. I actually think a healthy Allen will have an equal if not better year this season.

Agreed.

2021 Tucker was a force of nature. Last year… I didn’t love the way Dino used him, and he clearly wasn’t the same guy for most of the season.

Having a new OC will help as well. Annae made some strange choices last year.

 

[cusefan88]

Agreed.

2021 Tucker was a force of nature. Last year… I didn’t love the way Dino used him, and he clearly wasn’t the same guy for most of the season.

Having a new OC will help as well. Annae made some strange choices last year.

Allen being a receiver out of the backfield will really help OG and the others. I bet they'll run some fake/misdirection plays short to LA but really they want DBs to bite and beat them over the top.

 

[shu 49]

I think DCs last year said keep the QB in the pocket and make him complete a pass to someone not named Orande. I don't think Tucker kept people up at night.

Not after first game he didn’t lol. If GS can pass ball around or learn to throw guys open, I think this could be a great year. Alford should have a ton of catches this year and I thing that jones and brown kid could kick some ass there also

 

[PhatOrange]

Allen being a receiver out of the backfield will really help OG and the others. I bet they'll run some fake/misdirection plays short to LA but really they want DBs to bite and beat them over the top.

People have to pay attention to Allen out of the backfield catching passes. This alone will open up some things. IF Branham is as good as he looks on tape a split backfield with these two will be dangerous as well as open up the downfield passing game. Swinging Allen out drawing backers and then giving Branham inside handoffs or Shrader keepers really open things up. And obviously if teams have to drop safeties down to defend the run the WR passing game should open up. Please please OL step up.

 

[RF2044]

People have to pay attention to Allen out of the backfield catching passes. This alone will open up some things. IF Branham is as good as he looks on tape a split backfield with these two will dangerous as well as open up the downfield passing game. Please please OL step up.

Emphasis.

Key to the season, IMO.

Second biggest key -- how the newcomers replace the departing players in the secondary.

Third biggest key -- can we stop the run better?

Fourth biggest key -- who emerges at WR to make teams pay for doubling OG.

Fifth biggest key -- can we avoid getting decimated by injuries / does improved depth help us not wilt the last 1/3 of the season if we do.

 

[sutomcat]

These are last year’s rankings. Maybe these are indicative if the teams have the same or similar pass rush, same or similar CBs. But, for example, we don’t have G Williams and Chestnut or Carter in the secondary, so past performance may not . . . .

No doubt the turnover with college ball means the numbers shown are not going to be the same.

But good schemes and good DCs tend to be good pretty consistently. And bad defenses tend to stay bad.

Let's compare the 2022 schedule to 2023 to try and understand some about this.

2022 Schedule
UL
at UConn
Purdue
Virginia
Wagner
NC State
at Clemson
ND
at Pitt
FSU
at Wake
at BC
Minnesota (neutral)

2023 Schedule
Colgate
Western Michigan
at Purdue
Army
Clemson
at UNC
at FSU
at VT
BC
Pittsburgh (kind of neutral)
at Georgia Tech
Wake

Colgate replaces Wagner. I think both stink and there will be little difference here.

Let's match up UConn with Western Michigan. WMU is 129th of 133 teams in returning defensive production. UConn actually had a decent defense last year. They finished 70th in total defense in the country. Granted they played a weak schedule but I think one can make a good argument WMU is going to be a weaker defense than UConn.

We play Purdue both years. Purdue is 88th in returning defensive production for 2023. Their DC is Kevin Kane, who was the LB coach at Illinois last year. Ryan Walters was the Illini DC and he has taken over the the new HC. Kane was the LB coach at Illinois the last two seasons and before that was the DC at SMU and NIU. They have a new scheme, a new DC and a lot of turnover. I think it is reasonable to expect them to be worse than last year.

The last OOC opponent for last year was ND at home. This year it will be Army at home. Army's defense was interesting last year. They were the 4th-best defense in the country against the pass, but the 12th-worst against the run. It looks like they return most of their key players but had some significant personnel losses. They are probably going to be somewhere middle of the pack. Regardless, ND had a very strong defense last year. This should be a significantly easier defense to move the ball against and to score against.

In terms of conference play, the teams we played last year and play this year are Clemson, FSU, Pitt, Wake and BC.

Clemson returns a lot of talent on defense and will likely be better.

FSU returns a lot of talent on defense and will likely be better.

Pitt suffered major losses on defense (106% in returning production on defense) and will likely be worse.

Wake suffered significant losses on defense (75th in returning defensive production), was not good last year (93rd in total defense) and will likely be somewhat worse.

BC returns most of their players (13th in returning defensive production). They were 67th in total defense in 2022 and will likely improve. Perhaps significantly.

Virginia was swapped for Georgia Tech.

UVa had a good defense. GT was 12th in the ACC in total defense last year and last in defending the run. They lost their best DL and both starting LBs. They will likely about the same in 2023. I think GT is a weaker defense in 2023 compared to 2022 Virginia.

NC State was swapped for UNC.

NC State had a very good veteran defense in 2022. UNC had a horrific defense. UNC returns a lot of starters but last year, NC State was 20th in total defense in the country and UNC was 115th. This is another game where Garrett is going to find easier going against this defense.

UL was swapped for VT. UL finished 24th in total defense last year. VT finished 56th. VT is listed at 59th in returning defensive production, so I think we should expect similar performance this season. Perhaps they can break into the top 50. Regardless, UL's defense last year was top notch. I see no scenario where VT gets to that level in 2023.

So of the 12 regular season opponents, I think the defense we face will be worse in at least 8 of the games. One is roughly a push and 3 defenses should be tougher.

Overall, I think things look good for improved numbers on offense.

 

[Chip]

Agreed.

2021 Tucker was a force of nature. Last year… I didn’t love the way Dino used him, and he clearly wasn’t the same guy for most of the season.

Having a new OC will help as well. Annae made some strange choices last year.

I'm excited about Beck being the OC. Really want to see what he comes up with.

Starting WRs look good, the RB can run the ball, but is even more dangerous catching passes. I think the OL will surprise. Shrader's legs make a huge difference too. I think the offense will be pretty dangerous this year.

What I don't know is what it will look like when the key pieces start going down with injury. No sense pretending it won't happen, because it does every year.