Intresting video

[zjscuse]

I guess the relevance to this board, would be how much i like are creativity and somewhat unconventional offense (i guess its more conventional nowadays) and less conservative go for it on 4th down last year... Lets get back to executing that dino and co. Middle Tennessee is behind us prove it was a mental fluke.

 

[zjscuse]

Heres one more just for fun hahahaha (quiet sad sigh we have to play this scumbag)

 

[care taker]

Interesting, some of it is nuts but I agree to a point about going for it on 4th down once you hit mid field

 

[SmilinBob]

So Millhouse's real name is Kevin Kelley? No wonder why he's so busy.

A coach has to have a flow/feel of his offense...and defense as well by going for it. I just don't see that confidence right now but I'm sure it'll be back and going for any 4th and 2 or less mid field and closer.

 

[690West]

I'm just excited we finally got to see what Millhouse actually looks like.

 

[Orangezoo]

Really interesting. I would be curious to see if he measures his team more or his game plan more when it comes to analytics. Or if he has a tolerance expecting the numbers to normalize if say he has 3 games in a row with less than a 50 pct 2pt ratio, less than a 30 pct 4th down ratio etc.

Also down, distance and field position should have it's own probability vs lumping all 4th downs together. If 15 yards plus is 10 pct, it's not analytics proving you are right if the 50 pct marker is mostly 10 yards or less.

My guess is he has a long list for both sides of the ball to have won so much. Definitely curious about this a bit more now.

 

[Newhouser]

High school football coaches should be more interested in this - especially in NY with so many small schools offering football. What's easier - knowing you need to get 10 yards in four plays or finding a kid who can snap, a punter who can catch the snap, kids who can block for said punter long enough for him to kick it. Lots of things that can go wrong, and not a lot right at some levels.

 

[texascpa]

Really interesting. I would be curious to see if he measures his team more or his game plan more when it comes to analytics. Or if he has a tolerance expecting the numbers to normalize if say he has 3 games in a row with less than a 50 pct 2pt ratio, less than a 30 pct 4th down ratio etc.

Also down, distance and field position should have it's own probability vs lumping all 4th downs together. If 15 yards plus is 10 pct, it's not analytics proving you are right if the 50 pct marker is mostly 10 yards or less.

My guess is he has a long list for both sides of the ball to have won so much. Definitely curious about this a bit more now.

This work has already been done in the paper he mentions in the video. The 2-point conversion is the easiest to analyze. In fact, here are stats back from 2011. In college, it makes sense to kick the extra point as the 2-point conversion is only converted 41% of the time, and it yields a lower value per 10 tries than the kick.

Now, according to this article, the NFL success rate is 50%, but the yield on every 10 tries is 9.92 points for a 2 point conversion and 9 points for extra point kicks. So, it would make sense to go for it in the NFL. You will never get NFL teams to change their habits, though.

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

Perfect timing with this thread. Pulaski Academy plays on ESPNU tonight at 10pm against a high level team from Louisiana.

I'll be tuning in....if I have enough energy left after watching UMass battle Temple for Northeastern CFB supremacy, that is