Scotch
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Louisville had our number (and has, for years) and that was an emotional game for them - the last game ever at historic Freedom Hall. SU wasn't going to face them again in the NCAAT, however.
Your memory of the Georgetown game is flawed. SU had mounted a comeback against the Hoyas and the momentum was on our side. They kept it up briefly after Arinze went down at around the 5 minute mark - it was a 2 point game with 4 minutes to play, but without that inside presence the Orange just couldn't close it out.
I say this over and over again - the tournament is a crapshoot with a lot of luck involved, so I don't know if SU would have won a title that year. But I do know that they were without question the best team in the nation (Coach K and Bobby Knight both seconded that opinion in the days just before Arinze went down), and that Arinze would have made a huge difference vs. Butler.
I remember the Georgetown game differently. They took our best punch in the first half, but closed late to keep the score tight at halftime. It was nip tuck until the 10 minute mark when they took control. By the time Arinze went down they had already established momentum, and a lead, and were going to win that game. They were absolutely shredding the zone.
Agreed on the crapshoot of the tourney, that's why tournament record has always seemed like a harsh stat to solely judge a coach by. But I think the Butler game goes right down to the wire even with Arinze.