JB Struggles in March

[marz09cuse]

I would say one major factor to the bad record during the round of 16 has to do with the amount of time the other team has to prepare for the zone. A full week dedicated to beating a unique defense like the SU zone, IMO, has certainly played a role.

 

[CorduroyG]

Well said. The knock on 86-91 I think is partially fair. But at the same time, you could look at multiple 6year stretches of UNC/Duke/Kansas and see underachieving tournament flameouts and no championships. They tend to get overlooked because they bring in bigtime players every single year and eventually win a championship, which is almost bound to happen when you have virtually no down-cycles in recruiting. I think a lot of casual fans of other programs just look at the late 80s and Carmelo and the recent classes and just assume we were bringing in monster McD's AA's from 92-02 even though Wallace was the only one.

Great point. Duke has had its fair share of tourny flameouts the last decade or so. Nova destroyed them a couple years ago. VCU beat them in the 1st round. West Virginia upset them in the 2nd round. Even last year nobody thought arizona would beat them in sweet 16. But since theyre loaded every year theyre bound to make some final fours and win a title. We're not as lucky. Hell 2 years ago was the first time we were ranked #1 in 20 years.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

I guess we can spin it every which way to Sunday..but...4 times in 36 seasons? For a program that falls out of bed and finishes in the top 4 of the conference, wins 20 games+ every year... something just doesn't add up. Along with the first and second round ousters...

We all like to say that zone is hard to play against when you haven't seen it all year. How come all these squads eat our lunch in the sweet 16 (and even before that many many years). It's not like all of our ncaa losses have come to juggernaut squads. We've lost so many head scratchers.

 

[mantonio]

In how many of the sweet 16 games was Syracuse the favorite?

 

[BlueCurtain]

I would say one major factor to the bad record during the round of 16 has to do with the amount of time the other team has to prepare for the zone. A full week dedicated to beating a unique defense like the SU zone, IMO, has certainly played a role.

Apparently you didn't get the company memo that says the zone is unequivocally an advantage in the tournament. Thanks Kelvin Sampson for creating the biggest urban legend since Bigfoot.

 

[Knicks411]

Great point. Duke has had its fair share of tourny flameouts the last decade or so. Nova destroyed them a couple years ago. VCU beat them in the 1st round. West Virginia upset them in the 2nd round. Even last year nobody thought arizona would beat them in sweet 16. But since theyre loaded every year theyre bound to make some final fours and win a title. We're not as lucky. Hell 2 years ago was the first time we were ranked #1 in 20 years.

Yes, Duke definitely had a run from about 05-09 where they were getting bounced very early. But they also bookended it with a final four in 04, and a title in 10.

 

[SmilinBob]

First of all how are the records of a lot or all the coaches vs the top 10?

Second, the zone to me especially in the past is like a bond and it's safe and consistent. Once you get in the tournament matchups and foul trouble play a huge part and teams that can control tempo or figure out the zone, push and shove and get away with it or get there offense going on transition/made baskets before the zone sets up have done well against Boeheim in the tournament.

That said, this years team has a different dimension, more aggressive zone than in the 70/80/90's and they can also press. This new wrinkle helps them when their (SU) offense is struggling or the zone is. The depth and plug and play players he has is a benefit as well which he has had success with in the tournament when he's had solid off the bench guys. In NCAA games they struggled Boeheim had to ride the guys that got the team there but this year another guy can step up, if Boeheim doesn't do his 7.5 playing time thing in the NCAA's which I feel he did vs ND and not play Williams.

 

[GardenOrange]

I think it is a legit criticism. 4-13 illustrates how SU's style allows teams that we are better than hang around if they choose to. We are seeing many teams use the strategy of take no shot until under 10 seconds on the shot clock against SU. When inferior teams are allowed to hang around and are not forced out of their gameplan by the superior SU team, the chances for an upset increase. In the round of 16, I think you encounter more teams that can take advantage of this type of opportunity.

 

[SBU72]

What do you guys think is the main reason JB struggles in the tournament? He has only made it past the sweet 16 four times in 36 years.

I don't know the answer to these questions but consider; 1) how many coaches have coacher 36 years? or have over 800 wins? 2) how many coaches have been to the tournament as many times as JB? 3) how many have better winning percentages in the tournament? Consider only those who have been there say 10 times? 4) how many have been to the sweet 16 seventeen times? 5) how many who have gotten by the sweet sixteen have gotten to the final 4 more than JB? My point is that these successes (and they are sucesses!) don't happen by chance or mistake. The guy has to be a good coach or a good recruiter or both to achieve what JB has achieved. Is he the best? Probably not. Will he get past your "landmark" or "check point" this year? Impossible to say. Look what happened a few years ago. Everthing looked rosie then a injury to AO ruined it all. Not to say the Butler would have caved against AO either. We have aready seen that take one cog out of the current team and they could struggle. That cog doesn't have to be Fab. It could be Kieta as Fab's back up. Or KJ or scoop or Dion, or CJ. If just about any of 9 or all 10 goes down at the wrong time, then the season could come crashing down suddenly.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

I don't know the answer to these questions but consider; 1) how many coaches have coacher 36 years? or have over 800 wins? 2) how many coaches have been to the tournament as many times as JB? 3) how many have better winning percentages in the tournament? Consider only those who have been there say 10 times? 4) how many have been to the sweet 16 seventeen times? 5) how many who have gotten by the sweet sixteen have gotten to the final 4 more than JB? My point is that these successes (and they are sucesses!) don't happen by chance or mistake. The guy has to be a good coach or a good recruiter or both to achieve what JB has achieved. Is he the best? Probably not. Will he get past your "landmark" or "check point" this year? Impossible to say. Look what happened a few years ago. Everthing looked rosie then a injury to AO ruined it all. Not to say the Butler would have caved against AO either. We have aready seen that take one cog out of the current team and they could struggle. That cog doesn't have to be Fab. It could be Kieta as Fab's back up. Or KJ or scoop or Dion, or CJ. If just about any of 9 or all 10 goes down at the wrong time, then the season could come crashing down suddenly.

No one is arguing how good JB has been over his 36 seasons...a consistent winner. Now, we'd like to get past the Sweet 16 a few more times. Good is nice...but, with the kids we are getting now...we should be elite.

 

[SBU72]

No one is arguing how good JB has been over his 36 seasons...a consistent winner. Now, we'd like to get past the Sweet 16 a few more times. Good is nice...but, with the kids we are getting now...we should be elite.

Define elite. What teams are there? What teams are close. Why should SU be there. As pointed out, despite what SU fans want to say, the past 4 recruiting classes have NOT been ranked consistent top 10.

 

[dollarbill44]

I don't think the zone defense is the issue. JB didn't really use the 2-3 as his staple defense until the mid-90s and didn't really start to tweak it until the '96 FF team when he had tall guards and wiry, quick forwards who could cover both the low post and the wing. The high-profile flameouts of the 80s were due to various reasons, but keep in mind that 2 of the 4 wins in the Sweet 16 were '87 and '89, during the period when JB had his best recruiting seasons and had the monster talent. The big head-scratcher was '90 with Coleman and Owens, et al.

The 90s were really hurt talent-wise by the NCAA sanctions and we all know what has happened in the 00s.

Still, to see that 4-13 record is really surprising, but like others have said, we were rarely the higher seed in those games.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Define elite. What teams are there? What teams are close. Why should SU be there. As pointed out, despite what SU fans want to say, the past 4 recruiting classes have NOT been ranked consistent top 10.

It's a hard thing to define. But getting past the round of 16 four times is dissapointing...thats all I do know. I feel like our talent over the last 36 years has certainly been better than that. I love a nice 25 win regular season.. but, it doesn't mean much when you are yanked early in March by a team you should have beaten. We just never seem to exceed expectations, but often fall short of them.

 

[OttoMets]

I think the biggest knock on JB is his stretch from '86-'91. We were stacked all those years, legit final 4/national championship contenders. Yes he was 1 keith smart missed jumper away from a title, but only got to 1 final 4 during that stretch, and had early tourny ousters in 86, 88, and 91. And lost to a higher seeded team in 90 in sweet 16. Since 1991 how many times have we been legit title contenders? Not too many. '92, '94 and '95 we lost OT games to lower seeded teams, including two 1 seeds. 1998-2001 were solid teams but would have needed some big time luck and favorable draws to make a final 4. 2004 team was not beating uconn even if they beat alabama. Id say in the last 20 years 2005 was probably the only time we had a legit shot to make the final 4 and got bounced early. 2010 to butler sucked but without AO that was not a final 4 team either, and as we saw butler was pretty damn good.

Much of that is true, but I'd argue that our available players had a great shot to make a Final Four in 2010. We couldn't muster 60 points against the other team in a half-court game, which is the common thread in many of our recent losses.

We weren't a dominant team without Arinze, but we should have been more than capable of beating Butler and the winner of a two-overtime late game (Kansas State or Xavier).

 

[MGP]

JB has a bigger sample size than most coaches, so 4 out of 16 does not seem that good. The question to ask is what would other well respected coaches be with the same sample size? Probably not much better, and the fact that some of the longtime coaches don't have this sample size proves that they haven't even gotten that far. One exception that jumps out is Izzo, I'm not looking at any numbers, but i would bet his percentage is better than most. I guess what I'm saying is that I doubt many coaches would be over 25% in getting to the elite 8 with that big of a sample size.

 

[orangecuse]

What do you guys think is the main reason JB struggles in the tournament? He has only made it past the sweet 16 four times in 36 years.

The lack of a legit go-to guy.

 

[br801]

Never said he was a terrible coach but he struggles to make it deep in the tournament. 36 years and only getting past the sweet 16 4 times

Since apparently this is cherry picking season, how do you explain JB's career record in the Elite 8 and beyond?

Round of 8: 3-1 (.750)
National Semi-Final: 3-0 (1.000)
National Championship: 1-2 (.333)

Even including his abysmal history in championship games, that's a record of 7-3. I know it's not perfection, as many here seem to expect, but it's still pretty good by any measure.

 

[kuethstheman]

Since apparently this is cherry picking season, how do you explain JB's career record in the Elite 8 and beyond?

Round of 8: 3-1 (.750)
National Semi-Final: 3-0 (1.000)
National Championship: 1-2 (.333)

Even including his abysmal history in championship games, that's a record of 7-3. I know it's not perfection, as many here seem to expect, but it's still pretty good by any measure.

Which makes his sweet 16 record even more puzzling.

This is the same argument you can have for his problems beating Louisville. When he spouted off about his record against Beilein, it just served to make his problems against Louisville even more worthy of question.

 

[AZOrange]

No one is arguing how good JB has been over his 36 seasons...a consistent winner. Now, we'd like to get past the Sweet 16 a few more times. Good is nice...but, with the kids we are getting now...we should be elite.

Ok so you are mad about what we are doing right now?

In 2009 we ran into a higher seeded and pretty darn good Blake Griffin led Oklahoma team.
In 2010 after losing our starting center we lost to a scrappy Butler team (that nearly won the title)
In 2011 we lost to a conference rival in the second round that beat us earlier in the season.

2009 was not that painful (and based on seeding not unexpected). 2010 was painful the minute AO crumpled to the ground. There was no way we were winning the title with Big Rick/Riley.

Last year was probably a little less painful than 2010 but we got a bit of a screw job by the NCAA on that one.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Wow...yes, I expected to beat Butler, even without AO...I also expected to beat Marquette...who was a double digit seed. Screw job? You are supposed to beat 10 seeds.

 

[Knicks411]

JB has a bigger sample size than most coaches, so 4 out of 16 does not seem that good. The question to ask is what would other well respected coaches be with the same sample size? Probably not much better, and the fact that some of the longtime coaches don't have this sample size proves that they haven't even gotten that far. One exception that jumps out is Izzo, I'm not looking at any numbers, but i would bet his percentage is better than most. I guess what I'm saying is that I doubt many coaches would be over 25% in getting to the elite 8 with that big of a sample size.

I am not sure I follow you, even just looking at Sweet 16 games.

Bill Self has coached for 19 years, so a little more than half of JB's career. He's made 6 elite 8's already, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. So he is at 75% right now. He'd have to lose in his next 16 Sweet 16 appearances to not pass 25%.

Roy Williams has made 10 elite 8's. He's lost in the Sweet 16 4 times, so he's 10 out of 14. he would need to lose his next 26 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

Calipari has made 7 Elite 8's, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. He'd need to lose his next 19 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

 

[AZOrange]

Wow...yes, I expected to beat Butler, even without AO...I also expected to beat Marquette...who was a double digit seed. Screw job? You are supposed to beat 10 seeds.

Well I cannot help that your expectations are a little out of whack. Our fate was sealed in the 2009-10 tourney when we played in MSG. How picking up a win against Butler just to lose to KState or whoever seems like a pretty arbitrary line to draw. I hate losing in the Sweet 16, but the Elite 8 is ok!

Marquette wasnt a double digit seed to us. They had beaten us earlier in the year (and I think they were an 11).

 

[AZOrange]

I am not sure I follow you, even just looking at Sweet 16 games.

Bill Self has coached for 19 years, so a little more than half of JB's career. He's made 6 elite 8's already, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. So he is at 75% right now. He'd have to lose in his next 16 Sweet 16 appearances to not pass 25%.

Roy Williams has made 10 elite 8's. He's lost in the Sweet 16 4 times, so he's 10 out of 14. he would need to lose his next 26 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

Calipari has made 7 Elite 8's, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. He'd need to lose his next 19 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

Well until the last few years we were not at their level in terms of talent. I mean UNC has like 6+ HS AAs on their team.

 

[MGP]

I am not sure I follow you, even just looking at Sweet 16 games.

Bill Self has coached for 19 years, so a little more than half of JB's career. He's made 6 elite 8's already, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. So he is at 75% right now. He'd have to lose in his next 16 Sweet 16 appearances to not pass 25%.

Roy Williams has made 10 elite 8's. He's lost in the Sweet 16 4 times, so he's 10 out of 14. he would need to lose his next 26 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

Calipari has made 7 Elite 8's, and lost in the Sweet 16 twice. He'd need to lose his next 19 sweet 16 games to not pass 25%.

OK - so there's 3. Like I said, I haven't looked at specific numbers, but find me 5-10 more coaches. If you can't, then JB is in the elite. Not trying to argue, just trying to put it in perspective. Maybe there are 5-10 more coaches with better numbers?

 

[Knicks411]

Well until the last few years we were not at their level in terms of talent. I mean UNC has like 6+ HS AAs on their team.

I'm not disputing that. I was just saying that it wasn't a sample size thing.

OK - so there's 3. Like I said, I haven't looked at specific numbers, but find me 5-10 more coaches. If you can't, then JB is in the elite. Not trying to argue, just trying to put it in perspective. Maybe there are 5-10 more coaches with better numbers?

I have no problem saying JB is an elite coach. But like I said above, it's not a sample size thing; he has done a poor job of making it to the elite 8. That's not the end all be all.