KenPom #68 | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

KenPom #68

Hilarious people are even reading into this.

This was put out for buzz and clicks, and nothing else. It's meaningless data for now.
 
bnoro said:
Hilarious people are even reading into this.

This was put out for buzz and clicks, and nothing else. It's meaningless data for now.
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Excuse me who exactly asked for rational thoughts in an obvious "baseless, violently emotional reactions" thread?
 
bnoro said:
Hilarious people are even reading into this.

This was put out for buzz and clicks, and nothing else. It's meaningless data for now.
Expand...

That said it would be curious to see what last years pre season Ken Pom rankings were vs how they ended.
 
#68…

So Close Nbc 90Th Special GIF by NBC
 
FRANKIEFAN said:
NIT Bubble?

Theres talent. I think we added too many guys and chemistry will be a real challenge. Would love to be wrong. At least the schedule is easier early on.
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This is the situation at many programs. I believe both Louisville and Kentucky have entirely new rosters. And Duke may have only 2 guys back from last season.
 
bnoro said:
Hilarious people are even reading into this.

This was put out for buzz and clicks, and nothing else. It's meaningless data for now.
Expand...
you are a very wise person!!!!!
 
bnoro said:
Hilarious people are even reading into this.

This was put out for buzz and clicks, and nothing else. It's meaningless data for now.
Expand...

As to our fate, this as well as any pre-season ranking is totally meaningless... now more than ever.

That being said, as crazy as it sounds, these pre-season numbers are quite meaningful for Vegas and gamblers as they will heavily impact lines for the first 3 to 4 games of the season. I'm sure some are already heavily scouring the list for what they believe are wrong.

Either Vegas uses a very similar approach as KP, or piggyback KP, but the lines for the opening games will almost all come very close to how they are ranked in KP (and at all points of regular season). The pre-season weights will have heavy impacts on your KP for the first 3-4 games, until it starts to decline and then fully run off by game 10.

I have no clue how you can very accurately measure teams in the current NCAA Basketball world at the start of the season. But I guess some attempt has to be made.
 
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I don't how you can accurately measure teams this early on.

That being said, I know the rankings typically start with your prior season and then adjustments are made, so I'm glad that whatever data he put together (reliable or not) shows that we improved over the off-season.
 
Orangezoo said:
That said it would be curious to see what last years pre season Ken Pom rankings were vs how they ended.
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Here were last year's preseason rankings (as of Nov 2, 2023). My overall assessment (you can see the data below) was that for 23/24 anyway, his top 10 and top 20 rankings were quite good (he hit 16 of the top 20). But once you are outside of the top 20 its a crapshoot. And that range is probably more relevant to us for the time being.



The ranking hit 16 of the final top 20, and 7 of top 10, which I would say is very solid.
Those that were outside to start but made it
31. Iowa St
36. BYU
38. St Mary's
51. Clemson
And those that were in to start but missed
2. Kansas (big miss ended up 27)
14. Arkansas (big mess ended up 108)
16. Texas (ended up 25)
18. Kentucky (ended up 23)


In terms of other teams that were off by 20 spots in the top 50 (either way)
2. Kansas (27)
14. Arkansas (108)
21. USC (85)
22. Maryland (62)
25. Kansas St (70)
26. UCLA (98)
31. Iowa St (8)
32. Memphis (76)
33. Virginia (68)
34. Xavier (56)
42. Stanford (105)
44. Michigan (128)
45. Miami (96)
47. LSU (95)
49. Indiana (91)

60. St John's (21)
73. Wake (28)
58. Nebraska (30)
69. Dayton (32)
62. Pitt (33)
111. Indiana St (38)
67. Nevada (40)
84. Washington St (42)
 
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What were we projected before the season in 2003? I wouldn’t take these preseason numbers seriously. I still think the first football poll shouldn’t come out until October.
 
If you are wondering what the cut-off is for a predicted tournament team, it would be #47, as there only 10 conferences represented in the top 47 ... (47+21=68)

Last year there were 12 teams in the pre-season top 47 that missed the tournament.
 
richmondcuse03 said:
pre-season efficiency rankings in the transfer era are...interesting.
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It actually seems like a fun exercise, putting together a fantasy roster based entirely off what players did on a different team in previous years.

Add in some made up numbers for freshman, and you've had a good time.

Nothing that's going to be reliable, but it's fun.
 
Last year's KenPom

  1. Purdue
  2. Kansas
  3. Houston
  4. Connecticut
10. Alabama

So he had the 2 finalists in the top 4, 3 in the top 10

NC State was 61, which to be fair is what they were before their late run.

Seems like wasn't necessarily meaningless last year. Not that it has to be a results based activity, but wasn't like their numbers had UConn like 60.
 
It takes several weeks of games for KP to get enough in-season data to be normalized and not stilted by the preseason number.

The preseason AP poll actually has stronger correlation with end-of-year results, but the in-season polls are garbage for a number of reasons.
 
MikeSU02 said:
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If everything goes our way this year, and everyone stays healthy, this team could legitimately win 24-26 games this year. We have a lot of pieces that collectively have quite a lot of experience.

This team kind of reminds me of the 2000 team that had 5 guys score in double figures, and 9-10 guys who played and were real contributors to the rotation. You had guys like DeShaun Williams, Preston Shumpert, Alan Griffin and Tony Bland on the bench. Lots of parts, lots of depth.
 
IthacaMatt said:
If everything goes our way this year, and everyone stays healthy, this team could legitimately win 24-26 games this year. We have a lot of pieces that collectively have quite a lot of experience.

This team kind of reminds me of the 2000 team that had 5 guys score in double figures, and 9-10 guys who played and were real contributors to the rotation. You had guys like DeShaun Williams, Preston Shumpert, Alan Griffin and Tony Bland on the bench. Lots of parts, lots of depth.
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Going into the season parallels between those two teams are pretty significant.

Elite shooter who doesn't do much else, highly recruited shooting guard who hasn't quite lived up to his rankings, a journeyman point guard replacing a star...

A major difference is that the 2000 team had Billy Celuck and a freshman Jeremy McNeil at center, and we've yet to see if freshman Freeman can do anything like senior Damone Brown's 16 and 9.

If he does, this season will be A-OK

Edit: Chris Bell is actually a very interesting parallel to Preston Shumpert. Shumpert only played 20 minutes a game his sophomore year, and few could have predicted he would blow up for 19 per game, averaging 9 attempts per game inside the arc after previously being a three point specialist. His development of an inside the arc post game really made the combination of Brown/Shumpert a deadly offensive duo.
 
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