Kentucky Derby picks
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IthacaBarrel
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Looks like 10 in Preakness is early info. Chad Brown will put cloud computing in there. Not seeing Always Dreaming as a serious trip crown threat. Classic Empire ran a pretty good race in the derby had a lot of trouble as McCracken just crushed him out of the gate.
Sano trainer of Gunnvera drops Castellano and picks up Mike Smith as jock for Preakness.
Should be interesting
Sano trainer of Gunnvera drops Castellano and picks up Mike Smith as jock for Preakness.
Should be interesting
IthacaBarrel
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Love it. Haven't looked at race much yet. I will have some money on Mike Smith/ Gunnevera. I won't be able to take being beat by Mike Smith like I was in Oaks. I m going back and forth between Hence and mo money.
Tough to tell how horses will come back on 2 weeks rest. Always Dreaming seems to keep getting better, he could win easy but if not want to try and be in place to pick up the pieces. If he does win we will have 3 weeks of "Can get the 1-1/2 miles at Belmont?"
djcon57
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Obviously mo money's early presence and classic empire probably being ahead or next to dreaming the whole way will affect the race. Just to what degree...along with all that money on those two. I'll take my chances that Hence just didn't like the slop and all the horses in his face at the Derby. Gunnevera had this exact setup with empire and mo money and couldn't get there but the Smith angle is obviously something to consider. Maybe I'll throw a Gunn-Hence/All exacta in there
IthacaBarrel
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I agree on Gunnevera but it seems like countless races where I watch Mike Smith win and I have nothing to cover it. Even a $20 win bet could pay $350 or so, enough to cover other damages say he did win. The strange thing is it's not like the old rider of Gunnevera is a bum, Castellano is one of the best jocks out there, which makes me think he didn't follow trainer instructions. Don't see Castellano lose too many mounts, so something must have gone seriously wrong
cliftonparksufan
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I would like to see Mike Smith's stats on when he flies east for a stakes race. Has to be pretty good.
cliftonparksufan
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I think Cloud Computing is going to get a lot of interest. I'm not ready to go all in on him but I think this is going to be a great race. I'm still bullish on Always Dreaming but he is going to have to come from behind a bunch of horses to win.
IthacaBarrel
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I kind of fall into a trap on Cloud Computing, his form to me looks like he may struggle with the distance, he has lost ground coming in last two races but a lot of people are high on him and this is only his 4th start. Trainer/ Jockey combo is strong too. Chad Brown is a upstate NY guy and a Cornell grad and only a matter of time berfore he gets some triple crown wins as he has been so good on turf for a while now.
You are right though I think Cloud Computing will take some money. I think the pace could get heated up front with, AD, Empire Dreams and Mo Money, may set up well from somebody off the pace. I think the question is how fast will Always dreaming run the first 3/4 if he's on the lead because I think he will get the lead, could turn into a guts race at the end.
I am not as high on Always Dreaming as most but I can't remember the last time I bet a 3/5 favorite either, I just hate it
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br801
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Always Dreaming is a nice horse, but hasn't really separated himself this crop yet and will be seriously overbet today. I'm looking at Conquest Mo Money, Multiplier and Hence for some value.
cliftonparksufan
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Box the 2-4-6 and 3-4-6 and hope the 4 comes in 2nd.
Im just stupid betting some times.. went to OTB and it was out of business , had to try and remember my online account password to bet mobile..
i had 2-5-10 over 2-5-10 over 2-5-10-9 over 2-5-10-6-9.. i had the tri/super until that last jump by the 8 out of no where..
stupid part was i played $10 to win on the 2 which was good ($150)but for some reason i ended up with $5 ex bx 4-5-10 and without tickets to look at i never noticed because i just shut the ipad and went on my way..
didnt realize i didnt have the $250 exacta until i just logged in.
still had the 8 closed 2 steps shorter its probably a $3-5000 super. abd a pretty good tri
crap,
i had 2-5-10 over 2-5-10 over 2-5-10-9 over 2-5-10-6-9.. i had the tri/super until that last jump by the 8 out of no where..
stupid part was i played $10 to win on the 2 which was good ($150)but for some reason i ended up with $5 ex bx 4-5-10 and without tickets to look at i never noticed because i just shut the ipad and went on my way..
didnt realize i didnt have the $250 exacta until i just logged in.
still had the 8 closed 2 steps shorter its probably a $3-5000 super. abd a pretty good tri
crap,
IthacaBarrel
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Pretty easy to see that the Derby took a lot out of Always Dreaming just didn't have it Saturday. Two weeks rest for horses like this is just a rarity these days. I am sure he was training, jogging and galloping well but you never know until the jock asks for that 2nd and 3rd gear and Johnny V said he knew he was done early. At that point it was just a question if Classic Empire could hang or what closer would come in at the end..
My early Belmont pick is Senior Investment, not going to change my mind
My early Belmont pick is Senior Investment, not going to change my mind
djcon57
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Honestly Always Dreaming performance was what I expected in the derby from him. He's clearly talented but also think he just had two perfect runs at Gulfstream and the derby
IthacaBarrel
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Yep a bounce was bound to happen, I am sure he was looking great galloping and jogging but not even remotely the same, getting horses back on short rest isn't an expertise of a lot of these super trainers, it's not what they do. Watching racing and trainers, it seems that a lot of people in the industry train in the gray area quite a bit, as one old European horseman once told me, Americans are kind of screwed up, they train their horses in same zones, making easy days to difficult and tough days too easy. Also told me that a sound horse does not need any medications.. Imagine that.
Like I said, not questioning hall of fame trainers just an observation of where the game has gone past 25-30 years. This is why triple crown has become almost obsolete. Horses just aren't raced as frequently especially the top horses, which makes what American Pharoah did two years ago all that much better as we may not see it for a very very long time. Also trainers skipping one leg of triple crown to run in another has become the norm, which is fine but to ask a horse to give 3 huge efforts in 5 weeks at 3 different tracks when running versus fresh horses in each race is such a monumental task, now more so than ever. Looking back I would have liked to see Chrome run the Belmont without the hoof injury out of the gate, he was such a freak and so freaking sound, glad they ran him as long as they did. Not condoning the owner's melt down after that race but I get the frustration but tough to empathize after the run and trip their horse took them on. Tonalist was ready that day for sure would have been a great duel down the stretch, IMO. Funny Cide another great race horse, he ran his ass off at Belmont even though he did not love a wet track, wish he caught a dry track that day
Baffert has a 3 year old horse that is training lights out that probably will be looking at the Travers for first stake race, sound familiar?
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Belmont was a strange race.. so many horses and almost all had some kind of shot and were at odds undrr 15-1. I loved Taprit and irish War cry but after that it was a crap shoot., still the exacta and triple paid nicely, wish i hadnt come down off Gormley after the poor derby showing as that cost me 5K..
