Key games for bowl

[kcsu]

In order to get to 6 wins the following games are critical.
1: Middle Tennessee. Excellent team which will be sky high for us. Need this game desperately.
2: Pittsburgh. Very tough need to pull the upset in the Dome
3: NC State: Best chance on the road.

If we take those three i believe we go bowling as i see the Chips, Eagles,and Demons all as Ws along with the opening scrimmage.

 

[TexanMark]

You forgot CCSU. That will be Win #1 and it counts for the 6 needed.

Gotta take 5 of these 6: CMU, MTSU, @NCST, PITT, BC, WAKE

I really think it comes down to @NCST and PITT...we need to win one of those.

The other 5 games have to be considered as "L's" right now...if they manage to beat one of those 5 teams then a bowl game gets a whole lot easier and the team is further along than we imagine.

 

[kcsu]

You forgot CCSU. That will be Win #1 and it counts for the 6 needed.

Gotta take 5 of these 6: CMU, MTSU, @NCST, PITT, BC, WAKE

I really think it comes down to @NCST and PITT...we need to win one of those.

The other 5 games have to be considered as "L's" right now...if they manage to beat one of those 5 teams then a bowl game gets a whole lot easier and the team is further along than we imagine.

Agreed. I forgot that Central Conn counts. The only other game we might have a shot at is Miami. I think LV is actually better than Clemson and FSU this year. As to LSU just enjoy the gumbo

 

[Ish88888]

Agreed. I forgot that Central Conn counts. The only other game we might have a shot at is Miami. I think LV is actually better than Clemson and FSU this year. As to LSU just enjoy the gumbo

All good posts, its gonna be a,struggle, bc cmu and mtsu are tough games. They really are. We owe cmu a good punch in the face for the hit on ED a few years back. And MTSU is a dynamic team offensively that will have SS looking to ruin us defensively. Si yes, with the tough schedule, even the winnable games have story lines...geeez.

 

[djorange1989]

We are going to be favored in 5 games(BC, Wake, CMU, MTSU and CCSU) we can't afford to lose any of them, and most of them will be very challenging. It comes down to beating either Pitt or NC State, if we don't lose one of those 5. Can't see us beating Miami or the other 4 powerhouse teams we play. Basically we have no margin for error.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm going to keep saying it until it sinks in - we do not live in a world with baked in losses anymore.

 

[orangepassion]

I don't consider us an underdog against Pitt, particularly at home

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

I don't consider us an underdog against Pitt, particularly at home

I want to be up by 3 TDs on Pitt in The Dome following the 3rd Quarter just to see how spirited ("Lit" for my fellow Millenials ) Narduzzi's patented "4th Quarter sideline pump-up" is.

Like, I really, REALLY do.

 

[MSOrange]

We are going to be favored in 5 games(BC, Wake, CMU, MTSU and CCSU) we can't afford to lose any of them, and most of them will be very challenging. It comes down to beating either Pitt or NC State, if we don't lose one of those 5. Can't see us beating Miami or the other 4 powerhouse teams we play. Basically we have no margin for error.

I pretty much agree with this assessment. Only sure win is CCSU. Other 4 games you list, we should win, but could definitely lose also. I'd like to think they would be wins in year 2 and we don't slip up, if we are making the progress I hope. Miami and the other 4 - we'll definitely be underdogs, but I didn't expect to beat Va Tech last year. Anything can happen with this offense if it plays the way I think it will in year 2.

 

[UnknownOrange]

I always wonder we these situations what the overall fanbase would prefer but now that 5-7 teams can be bowl eligible it makes this debate less fun.

Would you rather go 5-7 with one of the 5 wins being the highest ranked opponent falls to us or go 6-6 and win CCSU, CMU, MTSU, @NCST, PITT, BC.

Obviously with 5-7's eligible for bowls I think we'd all take 5-7 with a top 10 win against Clemson or FSU or LSU/etc.

I don't care how we get there but I believe more of the fence sitting fans take notice if we went down to LSU and beat them as opposed to just winning 6 against teams most fair weather fans view as peer schools

 

[bnoro]

I always wonder we these situations what the overall fanbase would prefer but now that 5-7 teams can be bowl eligible it makes this debate less fun.

Would you rather go 5-7 with one of the 5 wins being the highest ranked opponent falls to us or go 6-6 and win CCSU, CMU, MTSU, @NCST, PITT, BC.

Obviously with 5-7's eligible for bowls I think we'd all take 5-7 with a top 10 win against Clemson or FSU or LSU/etc.

I don't care how we get there but I believe more of the fence sitting fans take notice if we went down to LSU and beat them as opposed to just winning 6 against teams most fair weather fans view as peer schools

If we beat a FSU/Clemson/LSU we better have 6 or more wins.

 

[UnknownOrange]

If we beat a FSU/Clemson/LSU we better have 6 or more wins.

Haha also the other side of that argument

 

[PAcuse]

We honestly can say every game this year is a key game for a bowl. We can't afford many if any missteps this year or we are looking at another 3-5 win season.

 

[TheCusian]

I'm doing my best to avoid saying any game is a sure win or a sure loss. With our D being historically bad and our O being historically good last year - I have no idea what to expect. Case in point: We beat VaTech who finished as the coastal champ and was what top 3-4 in the conference. We lost to Wake Forest and they were better, but still pretty mediocre/bad.

If you go by just talent, I think it shakes out like:

We have More Talent
CCSU
BC
WAKE
CMU
MTSU

We have Equal or Close Talent
PITT
NC State

We have Less Talent
Clemson
FSU
LSU
Louisville
Miami

The x-factor is clearly our system/QB and hitting that 2nd year bump Babers expects. Dungey is better or more experienced than just about every QB except Jackson at L-Vile and FSU's young guy. New systems at Pitt O, MTSU D, Wake D (new coordinator, not sure about system), and LSU O (Canada is good, so I'm not sure we get the same advantage, though it is early).

I think getting Pitt at home is very good and the easiest bell weather for bowl eligibility.

 

[RMH44]

I don't consider us an underdog against Pitt, particularly at home

Agreed...Pitt lost all of their offensive play makers AND their OC.

Their defense was horrendous last year and, believe it or not, their best players on that side of the ball are gone. They could be in for a long year.

 

[RMH44]

If we beat a FSU/Clemson/LSU we better have 6 or more wins.

I have a gut feeling that the Clemson game in the Dome is going to be a close game. We're getting them at home at the right time. Hopefully they won't be fully reloaded by the time we see them.

 

[cuse309]

I'm doing my best to avoid saying any game is a sure win or a sure loss. With our D being historically bad and our O being historically good last year - I have no idea what to expect. Case in point: We beat VaTech who finished as the coastal champ and was what top 3-4 in the conference. We lost to Wake Forest and they were better, but still pretty mediocre/bad.

If you go by just talent, I think it shakes out like:

We have More Talent
CCSU
BC
WAKE
CMU
MTSU

We have Equal or Close Talent
PITT
NC State

We have Less Talent
Clemson
FSU
LSU
Louisville
Miami

The x-factor is clearly our system/QB and hitting that 2nd year bump Babers expects. Dungey is better or more experienced than just about every QB except Jackson at L-Vile and FSU's young guy. New systems at Pitt O, MTSU D, Wake D (new coordinator, not sure about system), and LSU O (Canada is good, so I'm not sure we get the same advantage, though it is early).

I think getting Pitt at home is very good and the easiest bell weather for bowl eligibility.

Brent Stockstill of MTSU scares me. As good as we believe Dungey is, Athlon ranks him 33rd in the country, Stockstill is ranked 17th. Puts up huuuge numbers.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

For the record, Bill Connelly of SB Nation predicts CMU to be a 6-6 also ran and MTSU to be 7-5. Despite the talent of their quarterback, MTSU has huge questions on the line, at RB, and all over the defense.

 

[UnknownOrange]

I have a gut feeling that the Clemson game in the Dome is going to be a close game. We're getting them at home at the right time. Hopefully they won't be fully reloaded by the time we see them.

Glad it's on Friday night before their bye week. Strange things can happen in the Dome on Friday nights

 

[bnoro]

Brent Stockstill of MTSU scares me. As good as we believe Dungey is, Athlon ranks him 33rd in the country, Stockstill is ranked 17th. Puts up huuuge numbers.

Athlon still exists?

I'm not worried about MTSU. If we can't win that game we're not making a bowl.

 

[cuse309]

Athlon still exists?

I'm not worried about MTSU. If we can't win that game we're not making a bowl.

For the record, I expect a W. However, MTSU went 8-5 last year and beat 2 SEC teams in Vanderbilt, and Missou. Granted those teams are not Alabama, and LSU, but I would say they were a peer school to us last year. This is not a gimmee.

 

[Ish88888]

I don't consider us an underdog against Pitt, particularly at home

Agree, wholeheartedly. Depending how the first slate of games pan out on the schedule, it wouldn't be crazy to even be a td fav over pitt.

 

[PhatOrange]

I'm not worried about mtsu either. As I understand it they're replacing a bunch of players plus installing a new defense that will be blitz happy. We're spread out enough that he'll have to telegraph his blitzes which makes him vulnerable. Shafer can't defend bubble screens either.

 

[bnoro]

For the record, I expect a W. However, MTSU went 8-5 last year and beat 2 SEC teams in Vanderbilt, and Missou. Granted those teams are not Alabama, and LSU, but I would say they were a peer school to us last year. This is not a gimmee.

A peer school to us? Come on.

They lost to Vandy, WKU, Marshall, UTSA, and Hawaii. And Mizzou was a disaster last season. They also graduated a ton of seniors.

It's not a gimme, but it's a game that we should win 95% of the time.

 

[Trueblue25]

One more consecutive loss to pitt may push me over the edge.