Let’s Do a Dive Into the Stats

OrangeAl

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Read last sentence.
 

Zelda Zonk

"Gunter glieben glauchen globen"
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Since you can't even, lets try this on for size. The two games I watched him be less than effective, both loses, these are the stats, facts ( my speculation according to you ) from the box scores. And also where the other team didn't really have any interest in guarding him though they play m-2-m.

NC 16 minutes -1 assist - 1 turnover - 1 steal - 2 points - 1 for two from the field
Pitt 18 minutes - 3 assists - 0 t/o - 0 steals - 2 points - 1 for 6 from the field.

Do you see a 6 for 7 in there? Do you see a big upside in there? Now maybe you can imagine I actually know what I am watching. Pray tell, what did you watch during these games?

For the record that is about the average minutes he plays per game. With double the time he would probably have scored 4 points. I mean stats are stats right? And I still think Kadary will be our best guard in all instances before too long. He will have all the tools needed to be a good NBA player.
Since you love stats so much, you surely must be aware of a thing called "Small Sample Size."
You cherrypicked two games, ignored all the other factors that may have contributed to his 'lackluster' performance in those two games, self-described the determining factor as something as specious as 'ooh, they actually guarded him here,' and chose to present them as predictive of something else. That's not how truth works. If you did quote his stat lines correctly, then those stats are facts. But, they don't represent what you say they represent.
 
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SarasotaPaul

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Channeling my inner millhouse. This is so dumb. If it were actually true that Kadary's defender was not actively engaged with him, and instead stepping back to clog up the middle, why in the hell aren't we using him to free up Buddy, and Griff, and Joe so he can pick their defender leaving them WIDE THE HELL OPEN to bomb away from three? Because it's not really happening.

All he'd have to do is pass left, and go pick the shooter on the right, or vice versa. Or he could do the old dribble handoff and stand there and pick Buddy's man. Easy peasy.
Well if I were the coach, when Kadary set a screen I would have my players cheat over the top. Thats what you do when one player can shoot from the outside and the other can't. Just like adjustments to a zone there are adjustments and different ways to play m-2-m. Its not as easy as it may seem. The other problem is neither Joe nor Buddy are very fast especially when they are trying to turn the corner on a defender. And it was true. You can see the stats (above post) I pulled for the games I was referring to when I was "speculating" about what I saw. His defensive numbers weren't scintillating those games either. Better than Joe's or Buddy's but not enough to offset the bad offense that happened. Perhaps some of you might want to find replays of those games and get back to me & Zelda. I need someone to assist penetrating someone who thinks they know what I saw along with what I heard the announcers say. I'm pretty sure only one set of announcers mentioned this so both games might have to be viewed. I won't watch them again but then I was there the first time. Eyes wide open and not caring about who my favorite player was, how many minutes they had while turning a blind eye to any problems they might have incurred. My favorite player is and always will be one who wears SU orange.
Since you love stats so much, you surely must be aware of a thing called "Small Sample Size."
You cherrypicked two games, ignored all the other factors that may have contributed to his 'lackluster' performance in those two games, self-described the determining factor as something as specious as 'ooh, they actually guarded him here,' and chose to present them as predictive of something else. That's not how truth works. If you did quote his stat lines correctly, then those stats are facts. But, they don't represent what you say they represent.
I don't care to be called liar by you. If they were quoted accurately indeed. You should know these things rather than attacking the messenger. You should have double checked them, as that is so easy to do, before inferring someone else is a liar or inaccurate. You want facts and the truth. Indeed. The only thing I said was that other teams now do not need to guard him closely nor should they. These were the only two games where the other team played m-2-m and sloughed off of him. So that is the entire sample size for this type of defense on him small though it may be. There was never any statement by me to these being a predictor of the future for him. You love the kid. If you take a deep breath you would see that I also love him and his upside. He could be a real superstar with a developed outside shot. So instead making things up that I didn't say maybe realize we both have the very same high opinion of Kadary and his future.
 

OrangeinDC

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Well if I were the coach, when Kadary set a screen I would have my players cheat over the top. Thats what you do when one player can shoot from the outside and the other can't. Just like adjustments to a zone there are adjustments and different ways to play m-2-m. Its not as easy as it may seem. The other problem is neither Joe nor Buddy are very fast especially when they are trying to turn the corner on a defender. And it was true. You can see the stats (above post) I pulled for the games I was referring to when I was "speculating" about what I saw. His defensive numbers weren't scintillating those games either. Better than Joe's or Buddy's but not enough to offset the bad offense that happened. Perhaps some of you might want to find replays of those games and get back to me & Zelda. I need someone to assist penetrating someone who thinks they know what I saw along with what I heard the announcers say. I'm pretty sure only one set of announcers mentioned this so both games might have to be viewed. I won't watch them again but then I was there the first time. Eyes wide open and not caring about who my favorite player was, how many minutes they had while turning a blind eye to any problems they might have incurred. My favorite player is and always will be one who wears SU orange.
OK... I can't resist...

My counter to that approach would be to immediately flash the 2 guard through the lane for an easy pass and either a 6 foot J or if the center comes, make a quick drop pass to my forward or center for a dunk. Once my guy has gotten tired of you trying to cheat over the top ( and because he's bigger than your guy), I'm going to let him reject the screen and drive your guy down (relentlessly) and after a few kick outs to my shooters and punishing him on the drive... You won't have to worry about my guy's jump shot... Just what to say when he comes over and says “coach, that’s not working”. This Internet coaching stuff is cool since we don't have to actually win the game!

Seriously, a lot of what KD does will not show up in the box regarding D. He single handedly takes away the pass to the sweet spot of the zone. If you watch, he drops in the key to defend the pass, but is athletic and long enough to still recover and deny or block the 3 if he needs to. In the games you actually see the teams either stop or hesitate trying that entry pass at all when he's in. He disrupts enough to help other players make plays as well.

I still think K has a lot of room to grow with his game, he's nowhere near a complete player and what we are seeing now is raw talent, but there are a lot of things he just "gets" and is way ahead of the curve. Think about it, he's probably (minute wise) played the equivalent of only 5-8 college games.
 

kcsu

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He is exponentially better than Joe or Buddy its not even close. Ask any college coach which Syracuse Guard they would like to have on their team and it would be unanimous for Kadary.
Ask any NBA scout which SU Guard has the best chance to make the league again Kadary.
Read the stats Tom C put together. Kadary
Which of the 3 was higher ranked coming out of HS. Kadary.
Its not even close. There is no debate.
 

STEVEHOLT

There are FIVE letters in the name BLAIN.
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"Joe is shooting 38.8% (yes, that is only .02% higher than he shoots from the 3 point circle)."
I don't think this is correct? But it's late and Im sleepy..so not sure.
 

CuseFaninVT

Co 2020-21 Iggy Award Winner Hoops Leading RPG
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OK... I can't resist...

My counter to that approach would be to immediately flash the 2 guard through the lane for an easy pass and either a 6 foot J or if the center comes, make a quick drop pass to my forward or center for a dunk. Once my guy has gotten tired of you trying to cheat over the top ( and because he's bigger than your guy), I'm going to let him reject the screen and drive your guy down (relentlessly) and after a few kick outs to my shooters and punishing him on the drive... You won't have to worry about my guy's jump shot... Just what to say when he comes over and says “coach, that’s not working”. This Internet coaching stuff is cool since we don't have to actually win the game!

Seriously, a lot of what KD does will not show up in the box regarding D. He single handedly takes away the pass to the sweet spot of the zone. If you watch, he drops in the key to defend the pass, but is athletic and long enough to still recover and deny or block the 3 if he needs to. In the games you actually see the teams either stop or hesitate trying that entry pass at all when he's in. He disrupts enough to help other players make plays as well.

I still think K has a lot of room to grow with his game, he's nowhere near a complete player and what we are seeing now is raw talent, but there are a lot of things he just "gets" and is way ahead of the curve. Think about it, he's probably (minute wise) played the equivalent of only 5-8 college games.
Thank you
 

KaiserUEO

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What about defense which is half of the game?
its not that Girard is lazy, its that hes short, fat, slow and out matched.

he should be at Siena.
 
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STEVEHOLT

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its not that Girard is lazy, its that hes short, fat, slow and out matched.

he should be at Siena.

That’s a bit harsh... he’s well above average height for a male .. his BMI is nowhere near fat ... he’s not that slow ...

However he should be at siena
 

SWC75

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We are 8 games into what appears to be a 17 game conference schedule. That assumes JB is right when he said he does not expect any of the 3 conference games that were postponed will be made up. I would think there is a good chance we will lost at least one more conference game due to COVID. If so, we are exactly at the mid point in conference play.

Thought it would be a good time to look at statistics again, this time focusing on stats for conference play only.


Some observations:

Alan Griffin isn’t getting a lot of credit but his numbers to date are pretty close to those Elijah Hughes put up last year.

These stats are for conference play only, for both players.

Elijah 36.6 MPG, 41.0 FG%, 29.7 3P%, 83.2 FT%, 18.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 2.4 TPG
Alan 32.3 MPG, 48.0 FG%, 40.0 3P%, 83.3 FT%, 16.6 PPG. 7.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.6 SPG, 2.3 BPG, 3,9 TPG

Alan is holding up very well compared to Elijah in his first year at Syracuse. He is scoring very close to the what Elijah did, especially when you compare points per minute. He is shooting significantly better from the field and the 3 point circle, getting a lot more steals and blocks, but also turning it over more and getting less assists. He has also taken significantly less FTs per game, which is the primary reason Elijah has been able to outscore him despite much worse shooting numbers. I think Elijah was better at switching down low and rotating in the zone, though Alan is getting better as the season progresses. Alan gets a lot more rebounds and steals, which to my eyes makes them roughly equal defensively. We probably should be giving Alan more credit than he is getting. Maybe more playing time as well.

Some other things...

We are seeing an extraordinary competition regarding assists. As of today, JGIII is leading with 29, but Marek has 28 and Buddy has 27. Kadary has the most assists per minute and has 20 overall. If he gets more than the 18.0 minutes he has been averaging the rest of the season, he has a decent chance to catch everyone and lead the team. Pretty amazing to see 4 players all with a realistic chance to lead the team in assists. We could possibly have our center or shooting guard lead the team in assists. I think it speaks to how well the team passes the ball overall.

There is a similar close competition to lead the team in steals. Right now Alan leads with 13 but Buddy and Kadary have 12 and Marek has 11. Of course, if you look at it in terms of steal per minute, Kadary would win easily.

A center or power forward leads the team in blocks just about every year. I don’t remember someone playing another position ever leading the team in blocks. That is probably going to change this season. Alan has 18. Quincy is reasonably close with 13. After that, we have Marek with 4 and Kadary with 3. Marek might finish the conference season with less than a block a game. That might be a record for a Syracuse center and speaks to why our interior defense has been pretty suspect all season.

Alan leads the team in turnovers by a large margin with 23. JGIII has only 15 turnovers for the conference season in 2.8 MPG. That is pretty impressive.

Quincy dominates the rebounding landscape averting 8.5 RPG. Alan is doing surprisingly well with 7.4 RPG. Marek is only averaging 4.9 RPG. That is kind awful for a guy playing center averaging 35.9 MPG. Kadary is averaging 2.0 RPG in only 18 MPG. JGIII is not far behind. Not good when the PGs are that close to the starting center in rebounds per minute played.

Looking at personal fouls, no real surprise here. Quincy leads the team with 22. Marek is right behind its 21. Kadary is putting some impressive numbers up but has racked up 15 PFs despite only averaging 18 MPG. That needs to change.

As far as 3 point shooting goes, Alan is leading the team with a very solid 40%. JGIII is right behind him with 38.6%. Buddy is at 30.2%. To me, this indicates it might make sense to play Kadary at PG and give some minutes at SG to JGIII. As far as 3 point shots attempted per minute, JGIII leads the team, followed closely by Alan and Buddy.

JGIII and Buddy are really struggling shooting from the field. Joe is shooting 38.8% (yes, that is only .02% higher than he shoots from the 3 point circle). Buddy isn’t much better at 39.4%. Both are exceptionally poor at drawing fouls as well. Each has only 6 FTs for the entire season. It might be good to reduce the number of shots they take from the field. The production you want is just not there.

Marek is the best on the team at drawing fouls (based on FTs attempted anyway). He has 33 FTs. Quincy is not far behind with 25 FTs attempted. Alan is okay with 18 FTs. Kadary is okay here, not quite as good as Alan. He has 9 FTs in his 18 MPG.

No real surprises with the overall conclusion. Kadary needs to play more. Buddy is not very efficient and should play less. Our most efficient lineup is probably going to have Kadary at PG and JGIII at SG.


Firstly, statistics don't lie but they may not tell the whole story - and you may not have all the statistics. Here are the players per 40 minute averages. Again NP(net points) = positives minus negatives. OE(Offensive efficiency) = Points(P) minus Missed field goals(MFG) and Missed Free Throws(MFT. FG(floor game) = Rebounds(R), Assists(A), Steals(S) and Blocks(B) minus Turnovers(TO) and Personal Fouls(PF).

Dolezaj 12.3P 6.2R 4.1A 1.6S 0.9B, 3.2MFG 0.7MFT 2.2TO, 2.9PF = 16.1NP 8.4OE 7.7FG
Guerrier 19.4P 11.2R 1.1A 0.9S 1.3B, 5.9MFG 1.3MFT 0.7TO 3.3PF = 22.3NP 12.2OE 10.5FG
Griffin 19.3P 8.8R 2.8A 1.6S 2.0B, 8.4MFG 0.5MFT 3.3TO 2.5PF = 19.8NP 10.4OE 9.4FG
Boeheim 16.4P 2.4R 3.6A 1.7S 0.0B, 10.3MFG 0.2MFT 1.8TO, 1.8PF = 10.0NP 5.9OE 4.1FG
Girard 13.3P 3.7R 5.2A 1.9S 0.2B, 8.5MFG 0.4MFT 2.9TO 1.9PF 10.6NP 4.4OE 6.2FG
Richmond 13.5P 5.8R 6.0A 3.3S 1.4B, 4.9MFG 1.3MFT, 2.9TO, 3.3PF = 17.6NP 7.3OE 10.3FG
Braswell 11.5P 6.9R 0.4A 1.9S 0.8B, 10.4MFG 0.0MFT 1.5TO 5.4PF = 4.2NP 1.1OE 3.1FG
Newton 17.9P 10.3R 0.5A 1.5S 1.5B, 6.2MFG 1.5MFT 2.1TO 3.6PF = 18.3NP 10.2OE 8.1FG
Centers 7.5P 6.8R 0.8A 1.1S 1.1B, 2.3MFG, 1.9MFT 2.6TO 7.2PF = 3.3NP 3.3OE 0.0FG

Observations:
- The fact that we have four centers who have contributed almost nothing is easily the biggest issue on the team. How could recruit four guys and none of them can help us?
- That said, whoever is playing center will still be compromised by allowing excessive penetration into the paint. it's like a goalie whose defense allows too many shots on goal from too many angles.
- There is no Kadary-Buddy Issue. Kadary is a point guard. Buddy is a two guard. It's Kadary vs. Joe. I continue to maintain that if you are going to play three guards and two of them are specialists and one a combo guard, the combo guy should be the one coming off the bench to back up both of them. Joe is more productive a the 2 guard spot than as a point man. Buddy is playing 40 because Kadary cannot replace him.
- The nepotism question comes in when you ask: could Alan Griffin play the 2 guard spot? he was a guard at Illinois. He has the best three point percent age on the team. he's the same size as Buddy but can do more things. A lot more things. JB has said that the two guard in his zone is totally different from playing the 3 or playing guard at Illinois and "Alan has enough to learn". Is that the real reason he doesn't use Alan at the 2? When Bourama plays, we've got four guys, (Marek, Quincy, Alan and Buddy) for three spots, (the two forwards and the 2 guard). Who loses the most time? Will it be Alan while Buddy is still playing 40? or will everybody lose 5 minutes? If Alan sits while Buddy plays, you have to wonder what the real reason why is.
- That said, The Buddy argument does parallel the Trevor Cooney argument. Critics, (please don't say 'haters'), are saying the same thing. JB is saying the same thing. The only missing element is the nepotism angle. JB wasn't related to Trevor. But he used him the same way for the same reason and the critics had the same complaints.
_ Would like to see a line-up of Sidibe/Dolezaj/Guerrier/Griffin/Richmond just to see how it would work out. I think it could be a lot better defensively and on the boards and I'm not sure we'd lose that much on offense. We might gain in some ways.
- I have to think the reason why we haven't seen newton is Covid. He's clearly out-performed Braswell, save for that stretch in the first Pitt game.
 

721Comstock

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Steve - the only thing I’ll beg to differ on is the Buddy vs Trevor comparison.

The one major similarity is - both played too many minutes because we “didn’t have anybody else”.

However -
A - we actually do have somebody else for Buddy.
Any of : Alan, Joe, Woody could play at least a few minutes at the 2.

B - Cooney wasn’t the defensive liability that Buddy still is. Much better athlete, and he (along with Silent G) was a big reason that teams D was good enough to get to a FF.

Buddy is an limited player who helps on O.
He’d be a great role player, IF the coach would actually play him that way.
(ditto for Joey Bagadonuts)
 

20plus

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Firstly, statistics don't lie but they may not tell the whole story - and you may not have all the statistics. Here are the players per 40 minute averages. Again NP(net points) = positives minus negatives. OE(Offensive efficiency) = Points(P) minus Missed field goals(MFG) and Missed Free Throws(MFT. FG(floor game) = Rebounds(R), Assists(A), Steals(S) and Blocks(B) minus Turnovers(TO) and Personal Fouls(PF).

Dolezaj 12.3P 6.2R 4.1A 1.6S 0.9B, 3.2MFG 0.7MFT 2.2TO, 2.9PF = 16.1NP 8.4OE 7.7FG
Guerrier 19.4P 11.2R 1.1A 0.9S 1.3B, 5.9MFG 1.3MFT 0.7TO 3.3PF = 22.3NP 12.2OE 10.5FG
Griffin 19.3P 8.8R 2.8A 1.6S 2.0B, 8.4MFG 0.5MFT 3.3TO 2.5PF = 19.8NP 10.4OE 9.4FG
Boeheim 16.4P 2.4R 3.6A 1.7S 0.0B, 10.3MFG 0.2MFT 1.8TO, 1.8PF = 10.0NP 5.9OE 4.1FG
Girard 13.3P 3.7R 5.2A 1.9S 0.2B, 8.5MFG 0.4MFT 2.9TO 1.9PF 10.6NP 4.4OE 6.2FG
Richmond 13.5P 5.8R 6.0A 3.3S 1.4B, 4.9MFG 1.3MFT, 2.9TO, 3.3PF = 17.6NP 7.3OE 10.3FG
Braswell 11.5P 6.9R 0.4A 1.9S 0.8B, 10.4MFG 0.0MFT 1.5TO 5.4PF = 4.2NP 1.1OE 3.1FG
Newton 17.9P 10.3R 0.5A 1.5S 1.5B, 6.2MFG 1.5MFT 2.1TO 3.6PF = 18.3NP 10.2OE 8.1FG
Centers 7.5P 6.8R 0.8A 1.1S 1.1B, 2.3MFG, 1.9MFT 2.6TO 7.2PF = 3.3NP 3.3OE 0.0FG

Observations:
- The fact that we have four centers who have contributed almost nothing is easily the biggest issue on the team. How could recruit four guys and none of them can help us?
- That said, whoever is playing center will still be compromised by allowing excessive penetration into the paint. it's like a goalie whose defense allows too many shots on goal from too many angles.
- There is no Kadary-Buddy Issue. Kadary is a point guard. Buddy is a two guard. It's Kadary vs. Joe. I continue to maintain that if you are going to play three guards and two of them are specialists and one a combo guard, the combo guy should be the one coming off the bench to back up both of them. Joe is more productive a the 2 guard spot than as a point man. Buddy is playing 40 because Kadary cannot replace him.
- The nepotism question comes in when you ask: could Alan Griffin play the 2 guard spot? he was a guard at Illinois. He has the best three point percent age on the team. he's the same size as Buddy but can do more things. A lot more things. JB has said that the two guard in his zone is totally different from playing the 3 or playing guard at Illinois and "Alan has enough to learn". Is that the real reason he doesn't use Alan at the 2? When Bourama plays, we've got four guys, (Marek, Quincy, Alan and Buddy) for three spots, (the two forwards and the 2 guard). Who loses the most time? Will it be Alan while Buddy is still playing 40? or will everybody lose 5 minutes? If Alan sits while Buddy plays, you have to wonder what the real reason why is.
- That said, The Buddy argument does parallel the Trevor Cooney argument. Critics, (please don't say 'haters'), are saying the same thing. JB is saying the same thing. The only missing element is the nepotism angle. JB wasn't related to Trevor. But he used him the same way for the same reason and the critics had the same complaints.
_ Would like to see a line-up of Sidibe/Dolezaj/Guerrier/Griffin/Richmond just to see how it would work out. I think it could be a lot better defensively and on the boards and I'm not sure we'd lose that much on offense. We might gain in some ways.
- I have to think the reason why we haven't seen newton is Covid. He's clearly out-performed Braswell, save for that stretch in the first Pitt game.
Good work
 

miamicuse

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What percentage threes does one need to shoot in order to translate into 100% FGP of twos?
 
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