Let's talk going for 2

[JDubbin]

When we scored the TD at the end of the 3rd, I have to think that going for 2 is the only option there... here's a few thoughts on why. Being down 9 points by making the extra point at that point of the game does not benefit. Still down two possessions, and sure 'cuse would have been playing for an outright win if the chips had fallen right, but if we were playing for a tie with a FG I'd still be plenty pleased with that. Plus, I thought Dino was an "out of the box" aggressive coach, it almost goes against his own coaching identity to not go for it. If we had gone for it and scored and followed up with going for it again after Ish's TD, would have been SO DIFFERENT. Even if LSU scores, we have a chance to respond in some way... 9 points down kills the game

 

[skurey]

Yep always go for 2 in that situation. Best case you need a TD and another 2 to tie. Worst case you need a TD and FG to tie. Best case for going for 1 is you need a TD and FG to win.

 

[Briancuse]

You have to go for 2 there, y0u are basically in the 4th qtr, try to make it a one possession game.

 

[Chris02M]

its a gray area at that point, chasing points in 3rd quarter is risky, but i probably would have went for 2 myself

 

[JDubbin]

its a gray area at that point, chasing points in 3rd quarter is risky, but i probably would have went for 2 myself

What's the risk, being down 10 instead of 9?

 

[Cuseregular]

No with this offense you think you're gonna get there again. The lost momentum on a stop isn't worth it that early.

 

[JDubbin]

No with this offense you think you're gonna get there again. The lost momentum on a stop isn't worth it that early.

We did get there again, the problem was we had to get there 2 more times

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

It ended up not mattering in this game so its a moot point

 

[skurey]

It ended up not mattering in this game so its a moot point

It completely mattered! We score that second TD and have a chance to tie. We tie it up and kick it deep and stop LSU because that's how it works when you kick deep and get the ball with a chance to win.

 

[Scooch]

You can argue it either way of course, but personally I like our chances of Dungey getting 2 yards for 2 points.

 

[rrlbees]

Late 3rd is too early to chase points. Plus you have to do it twice and its a tie. Except for getting the ball back at the end the game went exactly as Babers could have hoped after that TD. Needing a FG to win.

 

[Chris02M]

It completely mattered! We score that second TD and have a chance to tie. We tie it up and kick it deep and stop LSU because that's how it works when you kick deep and get the ball with a chance to win.

a tie at that point is as good as a loss as our defense was wearing down. Coach knew we had to win in regulation Ot we are history

 

[JDubbin]

Late 3rd is too early to chase points. Plus you have to do it twice and its a tie. Except for getting the ball back at the end the game went exactly as Babers could have hoped after that TD. Needing a FG to win.

I just don't think the negative of being down 10 or 3 outweighs the potential benefits of being down 8 or tied... being down 9 and 2 didn't work out

 

[JLine]

You go for two in this game.

 

[Eric15]

No with this offense you think you're gonna get there again. The lost momentum on a stop isn't worth it that early.

If the offense is good enough to get there again, then why isn't it good enough to put the ball in the endzone from 3 yards out?

 

[Cuseregular]

If the offense is good enough to get there again, then why isn't it good enough to put the ball in the endzone from 3 yards out?

Now I'll go to stats. Big difference for this type O with a wide open field vs. 3 yards.

 

[Toga]

In order to win under either scenario we obviously need another TD. It's approximately true there is a 50/50 chance of converting 2 point. So that's then a 25% chance of getting a tie. Then you have a 50/50 chance to win in OT. Overall chances now 12-13%. Going for one - you need a FG (and the aforementioned needed TD) to win it outright with no OT.

 

[Millhouse]

There are so many different ways the game could've gone that I don't think it makes that much difference. I would've gone for 2 because there were only so many chances to get the ball the rest of the way but i don't have any numbers on my side.

 

[Eric15]

Late 3rd is too early to chase points. Plus you have to do it twice and its a tie. Except for getting the ball back at the end the game went exactly as Babers could have hoped after that TD. Needing a FG to win.

I think calling it "chasing points" makes it sound reckless. Like if you were down 8-0 in the first quarter and then went for two after scoring a TD of your own, that would be chasing points. It was a few seconds from the 4th quarter and possessions were at a premium.

I'm all about conservative and strategic football, but this was just an incomprehensibly poor decision by Dino to me. All the LSU fans sitting around me were asking "why aren't ya'll going for two? I don't understand."

 

[Chip]

There are so many different ways the game could've gone that I don't think it makes that much difference. I would've gone for 2 because there were only so many chances to get the ball the rest of the way but i don't have any numbers on my side.

I think based on everything you said in the other thread, you have to go for 2 at the end of the 3rd. The best way to avoid an onside kick analysis is not to have to rely on onside kicks.

 

[Millhouse]

I think based on everything you said in the other thread, you have to go for 2 at the end of the 3rd. The best way to avoid an onside kick analysis is not to have to rely on onside kicks.

if you miss twice and they get a FG, you're down 7 again instead of 5 which I suppose makes a difference. i would've preferred two point conversions but i'm not freaking out.

 

[Chip]

if you miss twice and they get a FG, you're down 7 again instead of 5 which I suppose makes a difference. i would've preferred two point conversions but i'm not freaking out.

I'm usually in the wait until the 4th quarter until going for 2 camp, but end of 3rd quarter in a game like that makes it gray. I'd probably roll the dice. It didn't bother me last night until the end. Then it did. But that's what message boards are for.

 

[retro44]

I gave up my arm chair a while back...we lost

 

[TheCusian]

3 scenarios:

- go for it and don’t get it; momentum swing and down 10 (2 scores just to tie, on the road 40+ OOC wins, etc)

- kick the extra point, down 9. TD + FG = win (plus there’s a chance they get tight only up 2 late in the game - didn’t happen - but still)

- go for it and get it; momentum builds, down 8 (1 score) - but honestly let’s say we get that 4th Q TD. Does he go for two? Probably. What are the chances we convert 2 2 point conversions? What if don’t get the 2nd? Momentum stalls, down 2 with 5 min left.

This all just highlights the fact that it’s not an easy decision in either direction. I say go for the 2 pt conversion and only down 1 score. But it’s not crazy to say “I’ll take the surer extra point and trust I’ll have 2 chances to score”

 

[Millhouse]

What are the odds of converting one? 40%?

So the odds of getting none of them are 20% and the odds of getting both of them are 30%

half the time it doesn't matter.

there are enough combinations of outcomes that makes this all a big mess even with the limited number of possible possessions. it's just not some obvious slam dunk choice.