Let's Talk Strategy for This Game

[sutomcat]

Reading analysis from the NC State-Clemson game, the general feeling was that NC State opened up playing soft coverage on defense, and routinely gave the Clemson WRs 10 yard cushions on sideline routes. Clemson was happy to take those gifts and scored with no real resistance from the NC State defense. Clemson coaches were really surprised at how easy it was to beat them.

The NC State coaches were apparently afraid of getting beat deep and didn't think Lawrence could beat them with intermediate routes. They thought wrong.

How are they going to do to try and stop the Syracuse offense? Are they going to play soft coverage like they did against the Tigers? Are they going to play press with 8 men in the box like everyone seems to do against Syracuse? They have to be concerned about stopping the SU passing game, as they were with Clemson, as Syracuse has the 35st best passing offense in the country. They are less likely to be concerned about stopping the run, as the Wolfpack is ranked 9th in rushing defense (though Syracuse is 31st in rushing offense). They have overall been decent on defense but are really good defending in the red zone (9th). They are a classic 'bend but don't break' defense.

Whatever happens, expect Syracuse to do some damage passing the ball against them.

On the other side of the ball, in contrast to the uber balanced Syracuse offense, NC State has been really good passing it and really bad running it. They are 12th in passing offense and 102nd in rushing offense. Their red zone offense has been very bad (92nd in the country).

To make matters worse, their 2 best RBs are really banged up (Gallaspy and Person) and either will not play and will play hurt against the Orangemen. This is a really good team for this Syracuse defense to play. They really can't run the ball and there is no way they will be able to hurt Syracuse this way.

On the positive side for them, it appears the starting cornerbacks for SU will both be hurt and if they play at all, will surely not be at 100%. The Wolfpack will probably be going against a couple of frosh CBs most of the game. NC State had 2 excellent WRs but one (Louis) is really banged up and should not be a factor. Kelvin Harmon, who almost came to Syracuse, is their top guy and only deep threat, and they have a few other big strong WRs to complement him that are pretty good possession guys. They have no threats catching the ball at TE and their RBs are not good here either.

NC State has not thrown the ball long very much. Finley focuses on short passes behind the backfield and to the wings, much like UNC did last week, so that will help prep the SU defense for what is going to happen Saturday night.

In terms of special teams, Syracuse is 1st in the country in net punting. NC State is 112th. Their placekicker is 8 of 11 on FGs attempted and has not made one beyond 44 yards. Syracuse should have a major advantage on special teams.

 

[SU94]

One thing from last week, that most here are reticent to do, but I think you have to give Fedora some major props for tweaking his gameplan at halftime. He saw something, talked about it on the post halftime interview, and made it happen. UNC scored 7 points in the first half, 20 in the second half, and 10 more in OT.

I don't sense we'll see that caliber of adjustment coming from Dave Doeren.

 

[rrlbees]

My biggest concern is Finley, who is an NFL draft pick, dinking and dunking us to death. It’ll also offset our pass rush from the ends.

 

[Trueblue25]

I don’t see how we don’t start Tommy against a bend dont break defense that struggles defending the deep ball.


This seems like a great opportunity to actually be “fast” and tire out an unspectacular nc state d whether they give us cushion or not.

Put in dungey in redZone opportunities need be

 

[orange_in_VA]

My biggest concern is Finley, who is an NFL draft pick, dinking and dunking us to death. It’ll also offset our pass rush from the ends.

This

 

[Trueblue25]

My biggest concern is Finley, who is an NFL draft pick, dinking and dunking us to death. It’ll also offset our pass rush from the ends.

I am praying that Foster’s 100%. Need our ball hawks and heat seeking missiles, from what I gather, against this pass attack. Hopefully Foster, Cisco, Whit, Cordy (if he plays) and guthrie take some good angles and get to the carrier fast.

 

[AAM62]

they will press the ish out of us. every team has to do it whether they have quality corners or not.

 

[Finwad32]

I’d expect a base plan to play more press than zone with 7/8 in the box routinely.

They won’t give us the respect they gave Clemson WR’s.

We’ll have opportunities to hit some shots, but, must control the tempo and move the chains.

This should be an excellent game.

 

[sutomcat]

I’d expect a base plan to play more press than zone with 7/8 in the box routinely.

They won’t give us the respect they gave Clemson WR’s.

We’ll have opportunities to hit some shots, but, must control the tempo and move the chains.

This should be an excellent game.

Agree. I think a big key will be whether NC State is able to get a good pass rush on us.

UNC was able to put pressure on Dungey regularly. I think they got 4.5 sacks, a bunch of hurries and forced him to run for his life a number of other times. That didn't happen with Tommy.

Was it because Tommy just got rid of the ball earlier? I think part of it might be blind luck but I feel at the least, Eric has become very comfortable holding the ball in the pocket for extended periods. Maybe in part because with his bad shoulder, he wants to wait a bit longer for the WR to get better separation. Maybe in part because he knows there is a chance he can run for big yards and the longer he waits, the more space opens up between him and the retreating linebackers and defensive backs.

It looks like when Tommy feels pressure, he is going to throw it away. When Eric feels it, he is more likely to hold it, and maybe end up taking the sack.

If our QBs can get some time to throw, we are going to score a lot of points.

 

[Upstate]

I'm really just hoping we can get some pressure from the DL this game. IT was a big factor vs. UNC, and really pretty surprising.

 

[upperdeck]

Ed ran into 2-3 of the sacks when he had no pressure. he had happy feet.

 

[TheCusian]

We’ll play a lot of nickel, play the pass. We should dare them to run. We are pretty good at defending passing downs.

Need to hit Finley a lot.

On offense? I really think this is the game to unleash TD. Run our O.

 

[Finwad32]

Agree. I think a big key will be whether NC State is able to get a good pass rush on us.

UNC was able to put pressure on Dungey regularly. I think they got 4.5 sacks, a bunch of hurries and forced him to run for his life a number of other times. That didn't happen with Tommy.

Was it because Tommy just got rid of the ball earlier? I think part of it might be blind luck but I feel at the least, Eric has become very comfortable holding the ball in the pocket for extended periods. Maybe in part because with his bad shoulder, he wants to wait a bit longer for the WR to get better separation. Maybe in part because he knows there is a chance he can run for big yards and the longer he waits, the more space opens up between him and the retreating linebackers and defensive backs.

It looks like when Tommy feels pressure, he is going to throw it away. When Eric feels it, he is more likely to hold it, and maybe end up taking the sack.

If our QBs can get some time to throw, we are going to score a lot of points.

I think a couple of things...

First, I believe Tommy’s more confident in putting the ball in tight windows, for good or for bad. He’s going to have more passing #’s by doing it, but less effectiveness in other rushing areas like the zone read. He’ll be better in the RPO game too imo.

Secondly, I think Eric’s viewpoint is considerably different. He’s spent the majority of his career running for his life. Less likely to stay in the pocket, stepping up and looking through progressions and more likely to depend on his legs at the first sign of pressure.

For the most part, I don’t blame Dungey. But, becoming more skiddish like that will inevitably lead to a lower passing efficiency and potential turnovers. On the other hand, it lends itself to a very high percentage of our rushing offense because of his playmaking ability.

If we can provide either with a sound pocket this weekend, they’re both going to be effective.

The real question is which way will your offense be more effective at scoring tuddies. Not just Saturday, but, in each individual game.

I don’t know the answer to that. There’s a lot of validity to the theory that a defense was not gameplanned to his tendencies. A good coach will hide some things in coverage to confuse him, the question is how far along is he in that development and how quickly does he learn?

At the end of the day, we’re in a great spot with two very capable, albeit very different, alternatives at QB.

Great time to be Orange. These are good problems to be debating.

PS - Net punting is a hidden stat that is VERY important. It’s a hidden gem and creates a significant advantage when you’re on the right side of it.

 

[UnknownOrange]

Syracuse defense under Ward when playing against above average talent at QB has struggled. I would love for them to buck this trend Saturday night and they could - but it doesn't seem likely. Shootout will be happening.

 

[Trueblue25]

TD was extending plays vs UNC. ED was panicking.

I will point out that ED is regarded as one of the best play extenders in the p5, so this was a uncharacteristic poor showing. I think he’s banged up + may be doubting himself a bit.

 

[Shenexon]

I've heard the idea scoffed at when mentioned, but think putting both Devito and Dungey on the field and perhaps at the same time could be useful. Dungey's shoulder issue is making it too easy to defend him at times. Can we swap Dungey & Devito as defenses change or use Dungey as a runner/pass-catcher? He's an important weapon but struggling with at least some of his throws. Why does Dungey/Devito have to be an either/or?

 

[shu 49]

I don’t see how we don’t start Tommy against a bend dont break defense that struggles defending the deep ball.


This seems like a great opportunity to actually be “fast” and tire out an unspectacular nc state d whether they give us cushion or not.

Put in dungey in redZone opportunities need be

Agree. They are top ten run defense without 8 guys in box so why bring in Dungey. This game is made for TD. Give ed a easy fix it week and rest his shoulder and see what Td can do. Unless ed c@n magically throw now its a no-brained.

 

[shu 49]

they will press the ish out of us. every team has to do it whether they have quality corners or not.

If Ed is in yes no doubt they will.

 

[shu 49]

Agree. I think a big key will be whether NC State is able to get a good pass rush on us.

UNC was able to put pressure on Dungey regularly. I think they got 4.5 sacks, a bunch of hurries and forced him to run for his life a number of other times. That didn't happen with Tommy.

Was it because Tommy just got rid of the ball earlier? I think part of it might be blind luck but I feel at the least, Eric has become very comfortable holding the ball in the pocket for extended periods. Maybe in part because with his bad shoulder, he wants to wait a bit longer for the WR to get better separation. Maybe in part because he knows there is a chance he can run for big yards and the longer he waits, the more space opens up between him and the retreating linebackers and defensive backs.

It looks like when Tommy feels pressure, he is going to throw it away. When Eric feels it, he is more likely to hold it, and maybe end up taking the sack.

If our QBs can get some time to throw, we are going to score a lot of points.

If I’m not correct 2 sacks were part Dungey not staying in pocket and getting antsy and took off to left and got grabbed. Shoulda stayed in there cuz Harris was open. Not saying I could do it but I’m not a d1 qb either. Tailer made team for TD.

 

[upperdeck]

TD still has the trust that the WR will be where they should when he throws early.. ED has learned to wait and see..

 

[Chip]

My biggest concern is Finley, who is an NFL draft pick, dinking and dunking us to death. It’ll also offset our pass rush from the ends.

Might be ok though if they struggle in the red zone. Just have to tackle those guys who get the short passes.

 

[CuseCrew08]

I'm really just hoping we can get some pressure from the DL this game. IT was a big factor vs. UNC, and really pretty surprising.

I wonder how much our Run D and pressure on the QB are inversely correlated. I think against UNC we told the D ends to make sure it isn't a run before getting to the QB. Maybe we are being more selective when to tell the DE's to pin their ears back?

 

[blizz]

Jacobi Myers is a baller. Gallaspy and Person are both capable backs. Gallaspy looks like he's put on some bad weight to me and looks a step slower and less agile than last year. He is a tough customer who runs with excellent pad level and grinds for extra yards. Person is going to be a problem when he gets healthy, I think we dodge a bullet with him this year.
Biggest thing with Finley is we need to get pressure on him, he's a softy pretty boy who doesn't like being touched. They had a lot of trouble dealing with overload and zone pressures where the call checked correctly against the read. Need to smack him and talk to him and then smack him again.

On offense we need to throw the ball downfield. End of list.

 

[AAM62]

If Ed is in yes no doubt they will.

I mean, have the receivers consistently beaten the press? I don't think so.

 

[sutomcat]

Jacobi Myers is a baller. Gallaspy and Person are both capable backs. Gallaspy looks like he's put on some bad weight to me and looks a step slower and less agile than last year. He is a tough customer who runs with excellent pad level and grinds for extra yards. Person is going to be a problem when he gets healthy, I think we dodge a bullet with him this year.
Biggest thing with Finley is we need to get pressure on him, he's a softy pretty boy who doesn't like being touched. They had a lot of trouble dealing with overload and zone pressures where the call checked correctly against the read. Need to smack him and talk to him and then smack him again.

On offense we need to throw the ball downfield. End of list.

They also have a couple of banged up OL.

Mixed six with Omega: Clemson edition

...
It hasn’t been a storybook final season for graduate receiver Stephen Louis, who has been banged up for a good portion of his final season in Raleigh. He’s managed just 12 catches all year and was apparently taken for X-rays after suffering a leg injury against Clemson. Obviously, a serious injury would spell the end for the team captain and locker-room leader. Fellow receiver CJ Riley actually led State with 66 yards through the air, 37 coming on State’s longest play from scrimmage (which also happened to be Matt McKay’s first career completion), but he hurt is shoulder on the play. Two offensive linemen, Terronne Prescod and Justin Witt, came off the field and Witt did not return. Person grabbed at his tender hamstring, immediately motioning to the sideline after a rush. He did not return. Gallaspy bruised his way to a game-high 59 yards rushing and notched the Pack’s lone TD, but he also hobbled off at one point (though later returned). This was a costly loss in many ways (perhaps including Finley’s wallet, as his draft stock surely tumbled).
...