Lineup / set changes required to salvage the season

[Forza Azzurri]

Is the offense improved or have we just not played bigger, quicker ACC teams yet?

To the naked eye, nothing has improved and the team continues to frustrate in the half court. There’s no real sense of purpose or urgency to our offense, nobody than can consistently score from inside the arc and a weak shooting team that shoots far too many 3’s.

I tried to account for that by weeding out the cupcakes from both this year and last and only using games against teams I deemed to be competitive.

 

[RF2044]

Is the offense improved or have we just not played bigger, quicker ACC teams yet?

To the naked eye, nothing has improved and the team continues to frustrate in the half court. There’s no real sense of purpose or urgency to our offense, nobody than can consistently score from inside the arc and a weak shooting team that shoots far too many 3’s.

I believe [eye test] that we have better offensive capabilities, as a function of Hughes adding an additional scorer / shooter that we lacked last year.

But things are not optimized with our PG situation being impaired by the injuries that set things back. And your point is valid -- preseason schedule is easier ceteris paribus than conference -- will be interesting to see what the offense will do against higher caliber opposition.

 

[RF2044]

I am disagreeing with your assertion that JC should start over Frank. The numbers don't bear that out. The team is better with Frank on the floor than without him on the floor.

However, the caveat is that, if Frank cannot get back to being Frank from last year, this team's ceiling is the bubble.

In that case, it might (emphasis on might since there is no way to know) make sense to start JC over Frank in the hope that JC may learn enough on the job to raise the team's ceiling.

At some point, sabermetrics need to give way to tangible results. Frank isn't cutting the mustard right now, and clearly has his mobility impaired.

And numbers < tangible results -- everyone can draw their own conclusions from the likes of games against Cornell, Colgate, and ODU -- there's trouble in river city.

When we shoot well, like against ohio state, we are formidable as hell. When we don't, we struggle -- even against mid-tier competition. Therefore, we need to adjust. And it won't take much by way of modifying how we attack opposing defenses to play to our players' strengths, whether lineup changes are made or not.

I'd love for Frank to go out bookending his career with another trip to the final four. Nothing would please me more. But right now, he's impaired.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

I agree with the assessment that we are better offensive team than last year by a bit. But that’s like saying we are taller than the shortest dwarf in the room... it’s a really low bar to set. The real problem isn’t any one thing... it’s the entire system. The system is a low margin of error one that works well enough to get us on the bubble and a really dangerous tournament team if the committee decides to put us in. Oh yeah this is all happening while putting a product on the floor that quite frankly is a painful to watch. If that’s good enough for everyone, that’s cool but its crazy to me that we are completely ignoring the example of the football program. We went from having a really fun offense to being a stale, boring team. Then we hired a bunch if defensive-minded grind it out dudes and only now that we have an offensive coach have we turned it around. If we have three more years of this system it will take a decade in the wilderness for us to find our way back.

Actually, it is a very big deal. If we can recapture those 3 pts on D and get Frank to give us his 7 more points on offense, our scoring margin increases to +10 from flat and that would put us in the top fifteen nationally using last year's stats.

You are correct in that those additional 7 points would make us lucky to crack the top 100 in scoring offense but you combine that with a top 25 defense (we were #24 last year) and that makes us very dangerous.

All four final four teams ranked in the top 30 in scoring margin last year.

Only 2 of the final four ranked in the top 100 in scoring (Michigan 168 and Loyola 269) and 3 of the four ranked in the top 100 in scoring defense (Kansas 144).

Do you want to win or do you want to look pretty?

BTW, aren't you the one who kept posting that the offense was the problem with this year's football team?

 

[Forza Azzurri]

At some point, sabermetrics need to give way to tangible results. Frank isn't cutting the mustard right now, and clearly has his mobility impaired.

And numbers < tangible results -- everyone can draw their own conclusions from the likes of games against Cornell, Colgate, and ODU -- there's trouble in river city.

When we shoot well, like against ohio state, we are formidable as hell. When we don't, we struggle -- even against mid-tier competition. Therefore, we need to adjust. And it won't take much by way of modifying how we attack opposing defenses to play to our players' strengths, whether lineup changes are made or not.

I'd love for Frank to go out bookending his career with another trip to the final four. Nothing would please me more. But right now, he's impaired.

I included ODU but excluded teams like Colgate, Cornell, Northeastern from the results...

You are correct in that Frank is not cutting the mustard, but that is ONLY in comparison to Frank from last year. Currently, he is a shadow of what he was.

Compared to Carey, however, he is cutting the mustard. The team is better with Frank on the floor.

And that is why there is so much upside. Even with Frank being a shadow of himself, this year's team is pretty similar to last year's. Get Frank healthy and this team should be better than last year's team by leaps and bounds (assuming we can get our D back to last year's level)...

My biggest worry at this point is that "when Frank gets healthy" has turned to "If Frank gets healthy".

He has now been playing for almost a month without any real improvement. This injury clearly seems to have been much more serious than the communications implied it was. Frank now has 2 weeks to turn the corner. If he cannot do so, it is going to be a problem.

 

[RF2044]

I included ODU but excluded teams like Colgate, Cornell, Northeastern from the results...

You are correct in that Frank is not cutting the mustard, but that is ONLY in comparison to Frank from last year. Currently, he is a shadow of what he was.

Compared to Carey, however, he is cutting the mustard. The team is better with Frank on the floor.

And that is why there is so much upside. Even with Frank being a shadow of himself, this year's team is pretty similar to last year's. Get Frank healthy and this team should be better than last year's team by leaps and bounds (assuming we can get our D back to last year's level)...

The highlighted component above is what is tangible. Your next paragraph is subjective.

Potential needs to be actualized. Right now, the team isn't close to actualizing it's optimized potential.

And I'm sorry, Forza, because I am a fan of you as a poster -- not trying to be argumentative. I just believe that in this instance, you're glossing over a few glaring issues that are impairing team performance -- and personnel / performance is a big factor in a couple of those issues. Again, your first post in this thread was that you disagreed with what my OP suggested. I haven't seen much to validate that assertion, beyond wishful thinking about if Howard were healthy.

I mean, is that even that insightful? If Frank were healthy / playing well, and Battle performed at a high clip, and Brissett finished everything inside and shot 35% from three, and Hughes continued averaging 15 ppg, and Dolezaj built upon last year and averaged 11 ppg, and Sidibe gave us a low post presence...

All of those things could manifest this year, by the way. Which I think is part of the point you are making. But some or none of them also might happen. Which is why the team has underachieved relative to expectations thus far, and why a few adjustments would be useful toward helping nudge the team toward actualizing the immense potential it should have and has generally failed to tap into to date.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

The highlighted component above is what is tangible. Your next paragraph is subjective.

Potential needs to be actualized. Right now, the team isn't close to actualizing it's optimized potential.

And I'm sorry, Forza, because I am a fan of you as a poster -- not trying to be argumentative. I just believe that in this instance, you're glossing over a few issues. Again, your first post in this thread was that you disagreed with what my OP suggested. I haven't seen much to validate that assertion, beyond wishful thinking about if Howard were healthy.

Ok..let me give you some stats:

With Frank on the floor, against major opponents:

Our scoring defense has improved by 5 pts per game
Our FG% has increased by 2%
Our 3 Pt FG% has increased by 5%
Our assists have increased by .8 per game
Our TOs have fallen by .8 per game
Opponent FG% has dropped by 4%
Opponent 3 Pt Fg% has fallen by 5%
Opponent steals have fallen by .9 per game.

This doesn't mean the team is good by any stretch. It simply means that the team is less bad now that Frank is back. Right now we are a mediocre team. Full stop.

If you want to replace Frank with Carey, that is fine but the numbers don't agree with you.

However, turning the argument on its head, it is a small sample size and, of course, there is always the unknown that cannot be quantified.

JC starts and begins to play much better than what he showed earlier in the season...

If that were to happen and Frank were to continue at his current level of play, then we would clearly be a better team with JC at the helm rather than FH...

If Frank has not improved by the start of ACC play then that gamble is probably worth it as the team cannot afford to wait until the middle of the ACC season for Frank to be "back". That would be too late.

BTW, I responded to you with this dissertation because you are a poster worth answering. Therefore, any debate is welcome and not considered argumentative.

 

[RF2044]

Ok..let me give you some stats:

With Frank on the floor, against major opponents:

Our scoring defense has improved by 5 pts per game
Our FG% has increased by 2%
Our 3 Pt FG% has increased by 5%
Our assists have increased by .8 per game
Our TOs have fallen by .8 per game
Opponent FG% has dropped by 4%
Opponent 3 Pt Fg% has fallen by 5%
Opponent steals have fallen by .9 per game.

This doesn't mean the team is good by any stretch. It simply means that the team is less bad now that Frank is back. Right now we are a mediocre team. Full stop.

If you want to replace Frank with Carey, that is fine but the numbers don't agree with you.

However, turning the argument on its head, it is a small sample size and, of course, there is always the unknown that cannot be quantified.

JC starts and begins to play much better than what he showed earlier in the season...

If that were to happen and Frank were to continue at his current level of play, then we would clearly be a better team with JC at the helm rather than FH...

If Frank has not improved by the start of ACC play then that gamble is probably worth it as the team cannot afford to wait until the middle of the ACC season for Frank to be "back". That would be too late.

BTW, I responded to you with this dissertation because you are a poster worth answering. Therefore, any debate is welcome and not considered argumentative.

I believe you're falsely attributing those improvements to Frank -- when it actuality, [I believe] the improvement is predicated upon having another versatile scorer that the team lacked last year - Hughes.

We seem to agree that Frank isn't where he needs to be.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

I believe you're falsely attributing those improvements to Frank -- when it actuality, [I believe] the improvement is predicated upon having another versatile scorer that the team lacked last year - Hughes.

We seem to agree that Frank isn't where he needs to be.

Sorry. I wasn't clear. My stats comparison is this year w/o Frank vs this year with Frank and not this year to last year.

Frank is not close to where he needs to be. He is a shell of what he was.

If we get to Jan and he is still playing like this, I will likely switch sides and advocate for a change...

I 100% agree that a big part of our improvement from last year to this year on offense is the addition of Hughes as another scorer...

 

[Shaggy1]

I don’t have the numbers but I’ve watched every game at least twice most games three to five times. Hughes is our most effective/efficient scorer and is great on the backside zone shifts and off ball blocked shots and rebounds. He should start and play more than anyone right now as far as I’m concerned.

Freshman Boeheim experiment must cease, give those three minutes to Dolomite.

Frank isn’t ready, let Jalen play and Frank sub. You can tell by just how he walks that something is still really tender...let alone the stand still defense, lack of lift, and the inability to cut.

Centers are what they are. That won’t change. They are both better than what they have played and Sidibe needs a longer leash. He gets pulled for just breaking a sweat.

Press, at least on set situations, dead balls, made foul shots. It has to be more constant and way more aggressive than just getting the opponent to run 8 seconds of the clock.

Two set plays with two options. 1. A double screen down low with a big and guard as the screeners, let Battle or Hughes run off it, a combo screen or roll off with the other guard and big rolls to the short corner. 2. 1/4 high set, screen out for the guard, easy foul line jumper or path to drive, second option screen for the point high, Carey would do work here. If the big screener is Dolemite or Brissett then they have the third look three. Why can’t we run this simple stuff. Duke got 9 points a game just from the double low screen when Reddick played as a senior. And and inbounds play that actually gets a score. WTH are we doing. We just go to the corner or backcourt 99 percent of the time. It is juvenile what we DONT do on offense.

 

[Trueblue25]

The 5 and Brisset have to do their job in the zone and Brisset has to start imposing his physicality and scoring within 15 on offense.

I wish he’d watch tapes of Jerami Grant, he’s not Dirty Southerland.

With Hughes and Battle we could easily, easily have an inside out game with brissett CATCHING the ball on the block or charity strike and either looking to score/draw the foul or hit open Hughes/Battle/Frank. Hell, even look for Marek, he’s noticeably improved imo.

 

[pfister1]

I agree with the assessment that we are better offensive team than last year by a bit. But that’s like saying we are taller than the shortest dwarf in the room... it’s a really low bar to set. The real problem isn’t any one thing... it’s the entire system. The system is a low margin of error one that works well enough to get us on the bubble and a really dangerous tournament team if the committee decides to put us in. Oh yeah this is all happening while putting a product on the floor that quite frankly is a painful to watch. If that’s good enough for everyone, that’s cool but its crazy to me that we are completely ignoring the example of the football program. We went from having a really fun offense to being a stale, boring team. Then we hired a bunch if defensive-minded grind it out dudes and only now that we have an offensive coach have we turned it around. If we have three more years of this system it will take a decade in the wilderness for us to find our way back.

This is an interesting comparison. We went through a period in football under P where the results on the field had dropped off, but remained at a high enough level that many were still satisfied. However, I think there was a point where the program became less attractive to top talent and that began a downward spiral.

I wonder if we are watching the same thing in the basketball program? I was a believer that some of our personnel and recruiting problems were a direct result of sanctions. But now that the overhang of sanctions are behind us I am not really excited by how this recruiting class is shaping up. Yes we have some good players, but I’m not seeing the star quality players that are going to return Syracuse to the top of the heap in basketball.

Our style of play is not attractive and we are having trouble landing players. You have to ask the question are we in a temporary trough or on a more lasting downward trajectory. As we saw in football once it starts it’s not easy to correct.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I appreciate the respectful response -- I'm a fan of you as a poster, as well.

But I'm unclear about what you're disagreeing with.

Frank ISN'T Frank right now, and there's no telling how long it will take for him to round back into form and regain his lateral mobility, shooting legs, and ability to attack off the bounce.

I'm of the mindset that players who are impaired actually can do more harm that good by taking up minutes. Please keep in mind -- and feel free to check the past five years worth of posts -- I am a huge Frank fan, and he's been my favorite recruit in this class since he committed. I'm not anti-Frank, and I'm also pragmatic about his strengths / shortcomings. But a guy who is able to give 70% isn't on par with someone who can go 100%, like Carey. So his minutes should get cut back until he is capable physically of "getting back to Frank being Frank," as you suggest.

Second, your point about the defense taking a step backwards actually supports my recommendation to start Dolezaj - who offers more by way of length, rebounding, and zone experience than Hughes.

So... what exactly were you disagreeing with again?

I look forward to the General20's and 007's drawing upon their coaching acumen to weigh in on my offensive set recommendations. Those aren't radical suggestions, and should be minimum threshold expectations, IMO.

I would love to see a recap from general regarding this game. Very comprehensive stuff, but they often seem to come after wins. I think we need one after a loss like this.

 

[Trueblue25]

Its weird to me that people always return to pointing out Frank. The issue is so clearly the fact that we’ve not recruited/developed a competent center, paired with Oshae’s complete flipping of offensive approach.

Oshae could average 16 ppg just going up on the block with the ball, or putting up 2nd chance opps and drawing fouls.

The kid broke melo’s freshman free throw record. Why are we giving up free points? What is happening?

 

[SoBristol]

I am skeptical that there is silver bullet in any lineup adjustments. It isn't the Gillon/White team, where a grad transfer point guard could take over, and where two starters (Lydon & White) were playing out of position and could be moved into roles better suited to their abilities. Those were easy fixes compared to the issues we have with the current team.
You could adjust the minutes between Frank and Carey -- wouldn't matter that much. Both are going to play and should get better as Frank gets healthy, and as Carey figures things out.

Still, it is mostly about the bigs -- Brissett, Chukwu, Dolezaj, and Sidibe. They have to play better at both ends of the court. No silver bullets.

 

[RF2044]

Its weird to me that people always return to pointing out Frank. The issue is so clearly the fact that we’ve not recruited/developed a competent center, paired with Oshae’s complete flipping of offensive approach.

Oshae could average 16 ppg just going up on the block with the ball, or putting up 2nd chance opps and drawing fouls.

The kid broke melo’s freshman free throw record. Why are we giving up free points? What is happening?

You are over-simplifying the issue / solution to the issue. There is no one single cause, our offensive struggles are multi-faceted.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Its weird to me that people always return to pointing out Frank.

Because it's pretty obvious that he's not 100%.

You are over-simplifying the issue / solution to the issue. There is no one single cause, our offensive struggles are multi-faceted.

And I don't see anything changing anytime soon. This is multi-year problem (with one exception in the middle), which was still the same offense, just better offensive players (but their defense was, uh, not great).

 

[Trueblue25]

You are over-simplifying the issue / solution to the issue. There is no one single cause, our offensive struggles are multi-faceted.

I’m not saying that Oshae not drawing fouls is the only problem in our offense, it’s just the most non sensical one to me.

We have the athletes and shooting to create a spacing nightmare for defenses, but we don’t.

We have two veteran facilitators, but one spends half the game on the bench.

We do not play with urgency for more than a quarter of each half.

Our best player within 10 feet of the hoop spends most of his time on the perimeter. Meanwhile our centers cannot be trusted to catch the ball downlow.

I could go on but it’s kind of pointless. I’m not a coach, these are just issues that stick out.

 

[NineOneSeven]

The 5 and Brisset have to do their job in the zone and Brisset has to start imposing his physicality and scoring within 15 on offense.

I wish he’d watch tapes of Jerami Grant, he’s not Dirty Southerland.

With Hughes and Battle we could easily, easily have an inside out game with brissett CATCHING the ball on the block or charity strike and either looking to score/draw the foul or hit open Hughes/Battle/Frank. Hell, even look for Marek, he’s noticeably improved imo.

Grant and brissett are completely different

 

[Trueblue25]

Grant and brissett are completely different

Yes, Grant’s taller and a better post player. But why can’t brissett look for the ball within 12 ft of the hoop?

Ennis would drive and magically find Grant or Fair wide open on a block for an easy slam.

Carey, Hughes and Battle can all seemingly get to the hoop at will. Two of those three would draw multiple defenders. But it seems on these plays Oshae’s in the corner instead of being found for the easy dish. For a player that draws so many shooting fouls, this seems like a no brainer for a team that needs to find some way to limit/handicap opposing big men.

 

[JeremyCuse]

You are over-simplifying the issue / solution to the issue. There is no one single cause, our offensive struggles are multi-faceted.

This 100% there are multiple reasons this team continues to be an average offensive team and some nights a dumpster fire. Frank not being 100% is clearly #1, I like Bees but hes whistling past the graveyard, Frank is no where near 100%. That loose ball late in the game showed that he has zero burst or speed, that ODU guy made him look like he was standing still. We need to get him back to the Frank of last year or this team is going to struggle all year. Perhaps the Christmas break will help. Also FT shooting is totally erratic. Against OSU we shot like 92%, yet against Gtown and ODU were missing Ft's left and right. Mixsing the front end of 1 and 1's, missing the ft to make it a 3 pt play etc etc. Not expecting us to shoot 85% as a team but we have been all over the place this year.

The other issue is this team gets zero easy baskets and has a poor bball IQ. How many long 2's has this team taken this year? How many times have we have tried to lob it to Chukwu or make a contested pass to Sidibe that we end up turning over. It is mind boggling. There were at least 4 of these type of passes/turnovers against ODU on Saturday, including a horrific one late by Oshae. Secondly how many times has a loose ball or rebound fallen right to Chukwu and Sidibe for what should be a lay up and they inevitably drop it, have it taken away, or just bat it around before it ends up with the other team. I hate to keep beating a dead horse but this team is playing 4 on 5 constantly on offense. Chukwu when he is playing well at least can board and give a shot blocking presence but he's regressed offensively (if that's possible) and Sidibe must still be hurt because he has looked awful so far and that is being kind. I am not excusing the play of Frank or Tyus or Oshae but its beyond frustrating to watch our centers struggle to really do anything game after game after game. Our current tandem make the Forth/McNeil years look like the golden age.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Yes, Grant’s taller and a better post player. But why can’t brissett look for the ball within 12 ft of the hoop?

Ennis would drive and magically find Grant or Fair wide open on a block for an easy slam.

Carey, Hughes and Battle can all seemingly get to the hoop at will. Two of those three would draw multiple defenders. But it seems on these plays Oshae’s in the corner instead of being found for the easy dish. For a player that draws so many shooting fouls, this seems like a no brainer for a team that needs to find some way to limit/handicap opposing big men.

Good point, I can't remember the last time we had a drive and a dish for a dunk or layup.

 

[NineOneSeven]

For many years our football team played a white knuckle style intend to keep the game close and eek out wins. Sadly I feel like hoops imitates that approach more often than not the past few years.

We recruit athletes (supposedly) yet don’t seem to ever want them to get out in the open floor and, you know, be athletic.

I know some people are characterizing posts now as post-loss H0T Takes. But many have been noting for a lonnnnng time now that our offense is a dysfunctional mess.

I've sad this a bunch recently. Our basketball team is very similar to our football team during the Shafer years (and NO I am not comparing the overall results... nor am I comparing Shafer to Boeheim). Simply making a comparison to the "feel" that the games have.

 

[rrlbees]

This 100% there are multiple reasons this team continues to be an average offensive team and some nights a dumpster fire. Frank not being 100% is clearly #1, I like Bees but hes whistling past the graveyard, Frank is no where near 100%. That loose ball late in the game showed that he has zero burst or speed, that ODU guy made him look like he was standing still. We need to get him back to the Frank of last year or this team is going to struggle all year. Perhaps the Christmas break will help. Also FT shooting is totally erratic. Against OSU we shot like 92%, yet against Gtown and ODU were missing Ft's left and right. Mixsing the front end of 1 and 1's, missing the ft to make it a 3 pt play etc etc. Not expecting us to shoot 85% as a team but we have been all over the place this year.

The other issue is this team gets zero easy baskets and has a poor bball IQ. How many long 2's has this team taken this year? How many times have we have tried to lob it to Chukwu or make a contested pass to Sidibe that we end up turning over. It is mind boggling. There were at least 4 of these type of passes/turnovers against ODU on Saturday, including a horrific one late by Oshae. Secondly how many times has a loose ball or rebound fallen right to Chukwu and Sidibe for what should be a lay up and they inevitably drop it, have it taken away, or just bat it around before it ends up with the other team. I hate to keep beating a dead horse but this team is playing 4 on 5 constantly on offense. Chukwu when he is playing well at least can board and give a shot blocking presence but he's regressed offensively (if that's possible) and Sidibe must still be hurt because he has looked awful so far and that is being kind. I am not excusing the play of Frank or Tyus or Oshae but its beyond frustrating to watch our centers struggle to really do anything game after game after game. Our current tandem make the Forth/McNeil years look like the golden age.

Bees never said Frank is 100%. Because he isn’t. Go have a hot dog. Lol.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Bees never said Frank is 100%. Because he isn’t. Go have a hot dog. Lol.

But you're saying that Frank at less than 100% is still better than Carey at 100%, right?