Luck factor, 'a win is a win', the dreaded bankshot 3, and other stuff

[TinyManInside]

Random thoughts on this season:

1) Immutable rule of college basketball: if the game is close and there are under 5 minutes to go and someone hits a bankshot 3 pointer, the game is OVER. Team that hits the bankshot 3 wins. Book it. (Ralston Turner, I'm looking at you) ((Aside: 2000-01 Preston Shumpert pulled the bankshot 3 in a game AT NC State that we won late after trailing all game))

2) Luck. There is only so much luck that you have in a season. We used up our allotment (and probably next year's allotment, and maybe even the year after next) during the 25-0 run.

3) 'A Win is a Win' - I have never and will never subscribe to this theory. Post-Duke game we won a bunch of close ones where we played like absolute fecal matter. They were unsatisfying wins and portended upcoming unsatisfying loses. IMO 'winning ugly' is not a sustainable model in a sudden death tournament setting.

4) It seems like every time we lose a close game late, you can point to a pivotal offensive foul on our team. How come the refs don't call the Ennis forearm shiver push-off for 38 minutes, but it gets called in the last 1:30? (Ennis is the master of pushing off with his off-hand, does it like 10 times a game).

5) I hope Ennis and Grant are back next year. Grant really reminds me of a poor (really poor?) man's Chris Webber. I think another year in college and he will be deadly.

6) Cooney is 10-51 from three since the 25-0 start. Tank. I honestly think that this is a guy that doesn't even really need to shoot that well for this team to win. He just needs to make enough to keep defenses from parking their entire team in the paint. If he were alternating between 3-8 / 3-9 from 3 every game (35.7%), this SU team would probably only have 2 losses.

7) Every game is the same game. We're going to score 60-ish points. The pace of the game will be unbearably slow. It doesn't really matter who we play, it'll probably be close with 5 minutes to play and it will come down to whether or not we make plays. I honestly thought that Fair was going to make that corner 3 to tie it at the end of the game. As bad as he played, I was shocked that didn't go in. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, even as bad as we've played for the last month and a half, I still firmly believe that we can beat anyone we play in the NCAAs. Yes, ANYONE. But I also believe we can lose to anyone we play in the NCAAs.

I'm hoping for a good March and a Cooney resurgence. But I'm not banking on it...

Mason

 

[Bayside44]

This should be the last thing said tonight, great post as always.

 

[RichmondCuse]

Awesome post, unfortunately, I don't share the optimism about the tournament. This team played with fire for a long time. Now they're getting burned. They were never as good as we thought (hoped) they were.

 

[iommi]

Great post, as usual, Mason. We do miss you around here.

Interesting Grant to Weber comparison...I don't get that one. Weber was a man-child, even as a freshman. Grant has a ton of work to do, on the court and in the weight room, to be even mentioned in the same sentence as Weber.

 

[AZOrange]

Random thoughts on this season:

1) Immutable rule of college basketball: if the game is close and there are under 5 minutes to go and someone hits a bankshot 3 pointer, the game is OVER. Team that hits the bankshot 3 wins. Book it. (Ralston Turner, I'm looking at you) ((Aside: 2000-01 Preston Shumpert pulled the bankshot 3 in a game AT NC State that we won late after trailing all game)).

I'm hoping for a good March and a Cooney resurgence. But I'm not banking on it...

Mason

A cooney banked 3 would mean we are going to win it all...

 

[TinyManInside]

Awesome post, unfortunately, I don't share the optimism about the tournament. This team played with fire for a long time. Now they're getting burned. They were never as good as we thought (hoped) they were.

I'm not sure that I'm optimistic... I just feel like this team isn't going to be blown off the court by anyone, and if you can stay in any game until late, strange things can happen.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Point #6: on the last possession tonight Cooney lost his nerve on an open three and passed the ball off and then air balled two other attempts. I expected more to be honest.

Point #7: I thought the same about CJ's corner shot. On the plus side he was the only guy to draw iron in that insane sequence of futile ineptitude.

 

[TinyManInside]

Great post, as usual, Mason. We do miss you around here.

Interesting Grant to Weber comparison...I don't get that one. Weber was a man-child, even as a freshman. Grant has a ton of work to do, on the court and in the weight room, to be even mentioned in the same sentence as Weber.

that's why I said 'Poor (very Poor?)

I just see a lot of similarities in the way they move. Weber was a contortionist just like Grant is. I'm thinking (hoping) JR Grant would be equivalent to FR Webber.

 

[Briancuse]

It never should have come down to a banked in three, we should have taken control of this game in the first half.

 

[OrangeDW]

Random thoughts on this season:

1) Immutable rule of college basketball: if the game is close and there are under 5 minutes to go and someone hits a bankshot 3 pointer, the game is OVER. Team that hits the bankshot 3 wins. Book it. (Ralston Turner, I'm looking at you) ((Aside: 2000-01 Preston Shumpert pulled the bankshot 3 in a game AT NC State that we won late after trailing all game))

2) Luck. There is only so much luck that you have in a season. We used up our allotment (and probably next year's allotment, and maybe even the year after next) during the 25-0 run.

3) 'A Win is a Win' - I have never and will never subscribe to this theory. Post-Duke game we won a bunch of close ones where we played like absolute fecal matter. They were unsatisfying wins and portended upcoming unsatisfying loses. IMO 'winning ugly' is not a sustainable model in a sudden death tournament setting.

4) It seems like every time we lose a close game late, you can point to a pivotal offensive foul on our team. How come the refs don't call the Ennis forearm shiver push-off for 38 minutes, but it gets called in the last 1:30? (Ennis is the master of pushing off with his off-hand, does it like 10 times a game).

5) I hope Ennis and Grant are back next year. Grant really reminds me of a poor (really poor?) man's Chris Webber. I think another year in college and he will be deadly.

6) Cooney is 10-51 from three since the 25-0 start. Tank. I honestly think that this is a guy that doesn't even really need to shoot that well for this team to win. He just needs to make enough to keep defenses from parking their entire team in the paint. If he were alternating between 3-8 / 3-9 from 3 every game (35.7%), this SU team would probably only have 2 losses.

7) Every game is the same game. We're going to score 60-ish points. The pace of the game will be unbearably slow. It doesn't really matter who we play, it'll probably be close with 5 minutes to play and it will come down to whether or not we make plays. I honestly thought that Fair was going to make that corner 3 to tie it at the end of the game. As bad as he played, I was shocked that didn't go in. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, even as bad as we've played for the last month and a half, I still firmly believe that we can beat anyone we play in the NCAAs. Yes, ANYONE. But I also believe we can lose to anyone we play in the NCAAs.

I'm hoping for a good March and a Cooney resurgence. But I'm not banking on it...

Mason

Agree strongly with all these points...except the Grant/Webber thing. I really like Jerami Grant but IMO "Poor man's" doesn't even begin to describe how much more skilled Webber was. Webber could pass, and shoot, and dribble! Like DC. Grant's athletic and good, but nowhere near the Webber/DC league in terms of basketball skills.

But yes, the bankshot thing is so true. And good for you in remembering one that went our way. I only remember the other ones(Umass- 92, Rutgers -03, tonight).

The win is a win and lucky magic thing...yeah. Many here got pissed at me when I said "the magic is gone" a few weeks back but it's been obvious for awhile now.

And I'm convinced we will get screwed by a charge call late in every big game going forward. Jim might as well just go out there and beat the hell out of one of these refs at this point. They're going to call it against us anyways.

 

[RichmondCuse]

I'm not sure that I'm optimistic... I just feel like this team isn't going to be blown off the court by anyone, and if you can stay in any game until late, strange things can happen.

Yea, but hard to win 6 straight games with that recipe.

 

[samspann1]

I agree wholeheartedly with #3. However, many people who voiced concerns with the team's play during the 25-0 start were shouted down by the masses.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

The ghost of Herve Lamazana returns...

Maybe it's a good omen. Last time we lost to a mediocre team cloaked in red on a banked 3 pointer in the last 2 minutes of the game we went on to win the National Championship. We've cracked the code!!

 

[BuffOrange]

Good post. I can answer #4 - they didn't flop in the first 38:30.

 

[TinyManInside]

Point #6: on the last possession tonight Cooney lost his nerve on an open three and passed the ball off and then air balled two other attempts. I expected more to be honest.

Point #7: I thought the same about CJ's corner shot. On the plus side he was the only guy to draw iron in that insane sequence of futile ineptitude.

CJ has had his ups and downs this year, but man - he has hit a TON of big shots. I was just expecting that this one was going to go in given his track record this year...

Cooney passing up an open three, then firing up a pair of INSANE off balanced shots seconds later was... umm, disheartening to say the least.

Reminded me of the Tournament game against Marquette in 2011, when Southerland passed up an open corner three, and as the broadcast went to commercial, the last shot was of Boeheim screaming 'That's the ONLY REASON YOU"RE IN THE GAME!!!" in Southerland's face.

 

[orangefan13]

1 cj was not ready to shoot today, its not that I think he can't or had a off night he just wasn't prepared to shoot from the corners. Came into the game really off. He absolutely needs to shoot from the corners in warmups.
2. our guards were not driving today.
3. Cooney not shooting. Him being 2-8 or 3-11 is better then 1-4.


I could be wrong but I just think our team was off tonight. A huge brightside we are getting more transition then ever since Grant's return.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Spot on. Many on this board will have trouble processing #3. Take off the Orange Goggles and we could see this coming even pre-Grant injury.

 

[TinyManInside]

Good post. I can answer #4 - they didn't flop in the first 38:30.

I didn't think it was a flop, Ennis clearly pushed off. He does it ALL THE TIME.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

The ghost of Herve Lamazana returns...

Maybe it's a good omen. Last time we lost to a mediocre team cloaked in red on a banked 3 pointer in the last 2 minutes of the game we went on to win the National Championship. We've cracked the code!!

And we had 4 losses at the end of the regular season and we were ranked #11.

 

[TinyManInside]

Yea, but hard to win 6 straight games with that recipe.

Very true. And that goes back to my 'a win is a win' theory. You can get by with one or two during a season, but it is not a sustainable model for a sudden death tournament.

 

[TinyManInside]

Agree strongly with all these points...except the Grant/Webber thing. I really like Jerami Grant but IMO "Poor man's" doesn't even begin to describe how much more skilled Webber was. Webber could pass, and shoot, and dribble! Like DC. Grant's athletic and good, but nowhere near the Webber/DC league in terms of basketball skills.

But yes, the bankshot thing is so true. And good for you in remembering one that went our way. I only remember the other ones(Umass- 92, Rutgers -03, tonight).

The win is a win and lucky magic thing...yeah. Many here got pissed at me when I said "the magic is gone" a few weeks back but it's been obvious for awhile now.

And I'm convinced we will get screwed by a charge call late in every big game going forward. Jim might as well just go out there and beat the hell out of one of these refs at this point. They're going to call it against us anyways.

Like I said before, I'm hoping Grant as a JR can equal Weber as a FR. I was a HUGE Weber fan and I'm fully aware of his skill set. I know Weber was bigger and more of an interior player, but Grant makes a lot of the same sort of shots that Weber made, those crazy 'I'm going to bend my body sideways at a crazy angle so I can get a shot off' type of plays...

 

[two3zone]

Like I said before, I'm hoping Grant as a JR can equal Weber as a FR. I was a HUGE Weber fan and I'm fully aware of his skill set. I know Weber was bigger and more of an interior player, but Grant makes a lot of the same sort of shots that Weber made, those crazy 'I'm going to bend my body sideways at a crazy angle so I can get a shot off' type of plays...

Huge Webber fan myself. Loved his game.

 

[Ghost]

4) It seems like every time we lose a close game late, you can point to a pivotal offensive foul on our team. How come the refs don't call the Ennis forearm shiver push-off for 38 minutes, but it gets called in the last 1:30? (Ennis is the master of pushing off with his off-hand, does it like 10 times a game).


6) Cooney is 10-51 from three since the 25-0 start. Tank. I honestly think that this is a guy that doesn't even really need to shoot that well for this team to win. He just needs to make enough to keep defenses from parking their entire team in the paint. If he were alternating between 3-8 / 3-9 from 3 every game (35.7%), this SU team would probably only have 2 losses.

Great post.

Yeah, Ennis gets away with it all the time. Surprised they called it there. Warren gets away with it a ton too. Just a bad time to have that call go against you - but it did.

Cooney turning down shot one, only to follow that up with one off of the top of the backboard, and another airball was beyond disappointing. Fine, miss them, but at least look like you've shot a basketball before.

Thought Ennis should have just gone for the easy put back after Fair missed his three. They all panicked. Oh well.

Keita - he's reverted to being the player he was...when, ummm, he was in 7th grade? Defense is terrible, arms down constantly, every touch of the ball is disastrous - he might as well be the 6th man on the court for the other team. I'd rather have Patterson playing back-up center right now. I really can't find a single reason to justify playing him of late.

 

[OrangeDW]

Like I said before, I'm hoping Grant as a JR can equal Weber as a FR. I was a HUGE Weber fan and I'm fully aware of his skill set. I know Weber was bigger and more of an interior player, but Grant makes a lot of the same sort of shots that Weber made, those crazy 'I'm going to bend my body sideways at a crazy angle so I can get a shot off' type of plays...

Makes sense...I know what you mean with those types of shots.

I guess it's mainly the VISION that I can't get past. Webber could pass! Most college guards can't really pass anymore, let alone big guys.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

2) Luck. There is only so much luck that you have in a season. We used up our allotment (and probably next year's allotment, and maybe even the year after next) during the 25-0 run.

3) 'A Win is a Win' - I have never and will never subscribe to this theory. Post-Duke game we won a bunch of close ones where we played like absolute fecal matter. They were unsatisfying wins and portended upcoming unsatisfying loses. IMO 'winning ugly' is not a sustainable model in a sudden death tournament setting.

During the undefeated streak these were two topics that would get you excoriated by many posters for bringing up.

The saying goes, it is better to be lucky than good. This team found itself in many coin flip situations, and it kept coming up heads. People took this as a sign that this team knew how to win, and was clutch. The problem is, winning close and losing close are not appreciably different when it comes to predicting future success, this team was winning close against teams it never should have been close to. There were big warning signs, but too many people were relying on the zero in the loss column than the close scores on the score board.