Lunardi has 10 Big East teams in as of this morning.

[cliftonparksufan]

Not that this is new news, but wait for all the complaining tonight.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/tag/_/name/2012-bracketology

 

[omniorange]

Jerry Palm has that too. Biggest complaint will be Seton Hall. The other 9 will be fine.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[690West]

9 are locks

 

[bpo57]

If the Spurs, Heat and Bulls were added to the mix Lunardi would still keep Seton Hall as one of his last four in.

 

[Alsacs]

I am ready for WVU to be in the 8-9 game in our bracket after Marquette was in the 11 seed in our bracket. Only good news about playing UConn 3 times they can't be in the 8-9 game in our bracket.

 

[bpo57]

9 are locks

I assume you are making USF a lock. Maybe slightly better than 50/50 but not a lock.

 

[omniorange]

I assume you are making USF a lock. Maybe slightly better than 50/50 but not a lock.

At this point in time, the only bid-stealer remaining is St. Bonnie's. While I wouldn't be surprised to see USF as one of the Last 4 In, I would be surprised to see them one of the Last 2 of the Last 4 In. So, to some, they are better than 50/50 more like 75/25 now.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[jncuse]

I think alot of people are discounting Marshall's resume right now. It holds up for close comparison.

At the same time, I always fall into this trap on selection sunday, because the people choosing are also likely discounting that resume.

Right now I am leaning to last in : Seton Hall, Drexel, NC St, and USF or Marshall.

Last out: USF or Marshall, Iona, Washington, Miss St

Dayton also has an underappreciated resume with 4-4 top 50, and 8-8 vs top 100, but they needed to take care of Xavier.

 

[bpo57]

I think alot of people are discounting Marshall's resume right now. It holds up for close comparison.

At the same time, I always fall into this trap on selection sunday, because the people choosing are also likely discounting that resume

I agree. Marshall is definitely worthy of consideration. Their #s are better than either USF or SHU.

 

[bpo57]

At this point in time, the only bid-stealer remaining is St. Bonnie's. While I wouldn't be surprised to see USF as one of the Last 4 In, I would be surprised to see them one of the Last 2 of the Last 4 In. So, to some, they are better than 50/50 more like 75/25 now.

Cheers,
Neil

What impresses you most about USF? Is it that 17 of their 19 wins came against teams with an rpi of 68 or lower or is it the OOC losses to Old Dominion, Penn State and Auburn?

 

[jncuse]

I have decided on Marshall over USF.

Yesterday I was not sure who to take between USF and NC St, but in losing so competitively NC St probably got some eye test support.

 

[omniorange]

I think alot of people are discounting Marshall's resume right now. It holds up for close comparison.

At the same time, I always fall into this trap on selection sunday, because the people choosing are also likely discounting that resume.

Right now I am leaning to last in : Seton Hall, Drexel, NC St, and USF or Marshall.

Last out: USF or Marshall, Iona, Washington, Miss St

Dayton also has an underappreciated resume with 4-4 top 50, and 8-8 vs top 100, but they needed to take care of Xavier.

I actually have Marshall as one of my last four in. Not sure the committee will see it that way, but I do.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[bpo57]

I have decided on Marshall over USF.

Yesterday I was not sure who to take between USF and NC St, but in losing so competitively NC St probably got some eye test support.

Yeah NCState is a complete lock.

 

[jncuse]

What could help USF is if the committee decides that Washington winning the P12 title is worthy of selection. It should not be, but the "eye" test or "overall body of work" can justify anything.

If you start to use that reasoning and justifying confernece records, USF gets in over Seton Hall and Marshall.

 

[omniorange]

I have decided on Marshall over USF.

Yesterday I was not sure who to take between USF and NC St, but in losing so competitively NC St probably got some eye test support.

I don't see how your final three could possibly be USF, NC St, and Marshall.

My final three (assuming St. Bonnie's doesn't win today) are NC State, California, and Northwestern (a sympathy vote by the committee since the bubble is so bad).

Marshall is the first of my Last 4 In, mainly because I think (like you said) the committee is overlooking them.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[omniorange]

What could help USF is if the committee decides that Washington winning the P12 title is worthy of selection. It should not be, but the "eye" test or "overall body of work" can justify anything.

If you start to use that reasoning and justifying confernece records, USF gets in over Seton Hall and Marshall.

In reality, the Pac shouldn't even get a 2nd bid. And I hope the committee has the guts to take that stand.

But if they don't, I don't see how they take Washington over California since they lost to them in Seattle.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[jncuse]

I actually have Marshall as one of my last four in. Not sure the committee will see it that way, but I do.

Cheers,
Neil

As I said, this is my Sunday trap. I justify the team, but its not likely the committee will.

 

[jncuse]

I don't see how your final three could possibly be USF, NC St, and Marshall.

My final three (assuming St. Bonnie's doesn't win today) are NC State, California, and Northwestern (a sympathy vote by the committee since the bubble is so bad).

Marshall is the first of my Last 4 In, mainly because I think (like you said) the committee is overlooking them.

Cheers,
Neil

I want to be able to finish my bracket and discuss within the next hour. I will say that Cal's 9-3 record vs 51-100 was the main reason for them being totally clear. Not a tradional key metric, but if you look at everything they did its much better then many and certainly Washington.

That's really impressive against the rest of the bubble.

 

[omniorange]

What impresses you most about USF? Is it that 17 of their 19 wins came against teams with an rpi of 68 or lower or is it the OOC losses to Old Dominion, Penn State and Auburn?

While the committee takes into consideration the entire body of work, they also can adjust their thinking based upon missing players. Since Collins did not play in those early games, I think they will judge USF based upon what they have been since he started playing for them.

In that regard only the road loss @Auburn is a bad loss. They have a Top 25 RPI win on the road, and another Top 50 win at home. The committee will also reward them for playing @Kansas, @VCU, and @So. Miss OOC.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[omniorange]

I want to be able to finish my bracket and discuss within the next hour.

Great, I'm done with mine, pending the A10 tourney result. That really is the only thing left to be decided for me.

I don't seed though. I just say which teams from which conferences will get multiple bids and then say single team conferences for the rest.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[bpo57]

I don't see how your final three could possibly be USF, NC St, and Marshall.

My final three (assuming St. Bonnie's doesn't win today) are NC State, California, and Northwestern (a sympathy vote by the committee since the bubble is so bad).

Marshall is the first of my Last 4 In, mainly because I think (like you said) the committee is overlooking them.

Cheers,
Neil

So you have USF in ahead of NCState? That's insane.

 

[bpo57]

I want to be able to finish my bracket and discuss within the next hour. I will say that Cal's 9-3 record vs 51-100 was the main reason for them being totally clear. Not a tradional key metric, but if you look at everything they did its much better then many and certainly Washington.

That's really impressive against the rest of the bubble.

Agreed that Cal has to get in over Wash. No way there will be only one Pac12 team in the tourney btw. They could justify it but that ain't gonna happen.

 

[bpo57]

While the committee takes into consideration the entire body of work, they also can adjust their thinking based upon missing players. Since Collins did not play in those early games, I think they will judge USF based upon what they have been since he started playing for them.

In that regard only the road loss @Auburn is a bad loss. They have a Top 25 RPI win on the road, and another Top 50 win at home. The committee will also reward them for playing @Kansas, @VCU, and @So. Miss OOC.

Cheers,
Neil

How much should they reward them for the KU and VCU games? They got blown out of the building in both. I understand the Collins thing but we can play that game all day long. Miami has missed key players at different points of the season that would have made a difference. I am sure the same could be said about other teams.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I am going to assume that BE bubble teams will be getting the shaft this year. I predict 8 BE teams in. Too much backlash after last year.

 

[omniorange]

So you have USF in ahead of NCState? That's insane.

Very similar numbers:

RPI -
USF - 53
NCST - 47

SOS
USF - 28
NCST - 25

Top 25 record
USF - 1-5 one win @Louisville
NCST - 0-7

Top 26-50 record
USF - 1-4
NCST - 1-0

Last 12
USF - 8-4
NCST - 5-7

Seems close to me. Like I said, I think the committee will look at USF from Collins onward. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. But I think two wins late by the Bulls (@L'Ville and vs Cincy) is slightly better than one nice win (Va.) and a close loss to UNC (without Henson).

Cheers,
Neil