Mar 2 to Mar 4 - Bubble Discussion

[orangenirvana]

Unlikely. Buffalo won't play enough quality teams in their conference tourney to bump their number up siginifcantly.

Their RPI is 33 now. With neutral site wins over #173 Central Michigan, #114 Ball State, #83 Toledo - I'm hoping they could bump up at least three spots.

I'm a big UB fan this week.

 

[orangenirvana]

errors:
l'vlle, penn st, notre dame are not in.
provy, ucla, nc st, usc are in.
syracuse, washington, ok st, loyola much closer to cut line than what you've listed

Why?

 

[pearl31]

Why?

mostly q1/q2 wins (in my estimation)

 

[MSOrange]

 

[pearl31]

wow

 

[MSOrange]

So here was my biggest surprise from yesterday. As I spent too much time watching and posting about this stuff yesterday, I went into the office between 1 and 3 last night to catch up on a few things.

So I get home at 3:00 to my condo unit, throw on the TV for a few minutes, prep up for a few minutes in the washroom. I head to my bedroom, wiping off my face, totally undressed, and there is a random stranger in my bed drunk out of her mind. Scared the crap out of me. I must have left the door unlocked which is a bad habit I have when I only leave for a few hours.

So I ask her if she realizes where she is. She says not sure, but it's OK and just wants to continue sleep. I said I would give her a few minutes and to call someone, but she kept on sleeping. I went back to watch a bit of TV. She slept for another 45 minutes or so, she got up and we realize she was on the wrong floor... she lives on 6 and I live on 3.

Not to derail the thread too much, but in college, a young lady mistakenly thought my friends dorm room was the restroom after being overserved and relieved herself in the corner of the room.

 

[jdubs30]

Every little bit helps. A couple spots better in different categories is better than nothing. Moving to the 30's in the rpi would be nice, no team in a power conference has ever been left out with an rpi in the 30's.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when we got in in 2016, I believe we had the worst RPI to ever get an at-large? Would be pretty ironic if we get left out this time with an RPI that high.

 

[jncuse]

Go on...

It ended there, after I helped her back up to the 6th floor.

But if I were to go to knock on her door to try to initiate something today , I suspect my chances would be as good as UConn winning another national time anytime soon.

 

[jdubs30]

In the back of the minds of the committee, all of lvilles troubles could play a role.

Same reason I believe MSU won't get a favorable draw. Any time MSU or Louisville is on, you can bet the "scandals" will be discussed. Do you think NCAA wants Michigan State in the Final Four knowing all the negative publicity it will draw?

 

[rrlbees]

Same reason I believe MSU won't get a favorable draw. Any time MSU or Louisville is on, you can bet the "scandals" will be discussed. Do you think NCAA wants Michigan State in the Final Four knowing all the negative publicity it will draw?

The committee chairman was just on during the cincy-Wichita st halftime and he said that stuff isn’t considered. He can say that but to an individual member it probably sits in the back of their minds and have an impact.

 

[Ryand877]

This Notre Dame stuff is really pissing me off

Me too. I’m annoying my wife talking about it lol!

 

[orangenirvana]

Thanks for the input. I suspect they will not be that rigid in incorporating power based ratings, but it is interesting to see where we stand if they decide it is a major factor. My guess is that they are fitting it into their evaluation like other metrics but no really emphasizing like you are. But this is a year of change so who knows.

It is interesting to see the teams that would have the bump if they invest heavily in it -- Penn St, Notre Dame, and those that would be out (NC St, USC), I think the thing with NC St as well is that it is not just 5-7, but who was in the five.


One other thing (in order to compare apples and oranges) with other current brackets:
You have 2 teams that are consensus out right now, as in.
You have 4 teams that are consensus in right now, as out.

So as of now on, your dividing line is two spots too low.

Using the "as of now" approach your method would also have NC St and Marquette in (with Middle Tennessee St as the auto).

I think you are assuming 2 bubble busters which is fine, but I am just trying to equate your rankings with the other things we see.

I'm basically using the criteria the committee has stressed the last 2-3 seasons, only with quadrants. I'm going to have to do more research to see what really has changed, as I was under the assumption that they were going with what has worked for them recently. Like if individual RPI is actually used again.

Maybe someday the committee will be consistent with their criteria.

 

[jncuse]

I'm basically using the criteria the committee has stressed the last 2-3 seasons, only with quadrants. I'm going to have to do more research to see what really has changed, as I was under the assumption that they were going with what has worked for them recently. Like if individual RPI is actually used again.

Maybe someday the committee will be consistent with their criteria.

What is a team sheet? Inside the March Madness selection tool

The team sheets are available. Follow the link above, and click the team sheets at bottom of article.

They use RPI for quality of quad 1 wins.

But they are tracking the other metrics, and keep average of the various rankings at the top of the team sheet.

 

[pearl31]

Good, don't have to worry about Loyola stealing an at-large now

 

[jncuse]

Good, don't have to worry about Loyola stealing an at-large now

It now comes down to:

Nevada
Middle Tenn St
Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure
PAC 12

 

[Eric15]

It now comes down to:

Nevada
Middle Tenn St
Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure
PAC 12

Oh my gosh Oshae just make that little bunny layup!

 

[Alsacs]

If Cincinnati gets a 15 seed that can score I am picking against them first round.
They are not a good offense team. Those type of teams lose early in the NCAAT.

 

[Briancuse]

I'm starting to wonder if beating wake and a really close loss to unc could be enough.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Loyola will upset someone

 

[MSOrange]

Loyola will upset someone

I already have them on my mind as an upset pick unless I really don't like the matchup they have. Not that anyone should be getting bracket advice from me.

 

[Alsacs]

This Florida Gulf Coast-Lipscomb game is outstanding.
FGCU was down 32 was in the first
Minute of the second half.
It’s 79-65 with 11 minutes left.

 

[NineOneSeven]

This Florida Gulf Coast-Lipscomb game is outstanding.
FGCU was down 32 was in the first
Minute of the second half.
It’s 79-65 with 11 minutes left.

Talk about offense

 

[Alsacs]

Lipscomb is playing 8 on 5.
These refs are willing FGCU back and I want FGCU to comeback.

These refs are crazy bias and intimidated by this crowd.

 

[MSOrange]

This Florida Gulf Coast-Lipscomb game is outstanding.
FGCU was down 32 was in the first
Minute of the second half.
It’s 79-65 with 11 minutes left.

Wow - I saw the 30 plus deficit and figured I didn't have to watch this one. Insane offense!

 

[orangenirvana]

Wow - I saw the 30 plus deficit and figured I didn't have to watch this one. Insane offense!

This game reminds me of Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble.