Marrone and Rahme are just plain wrong

[CIL]

how are we in defense yards per play?

56th -- it appears as if 3rd down defense is absolutely killing us this year.
- 116 out of 120 in number of 3rd downs attempts on us per game, and the are converting nearly half.
- 40% is about average this year -- if we were average in 3rd down defense, we'd get an extra possesion and a half per game.

This suggests the defense is giving up (outside of Tulane) longer drives than average due to piss poor defense on third down. AKA the death by a thousand cuts D.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

56th -- it appears as if 3rd down defense is absolutely killing us this year.
- 116 out of 120 in number of 3rd downs attempts on us per game, and the are converting nearly half.
- 40% is about average this year -- if we were average in 3rd down defense, we'd get an extra possesion and a half per game.

This suggests the defense is giving up (outside of Tulane) longer drives than average due to piss poor defense on third down. AKA the death by a thousand cuts D.

Yep, Looks a lot like a GROB defense, other than Rutgers

 

[CIL]

Top 12 offenses as defined by yards per play (first column) :

1​

Wisconsin PRO

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

7.4​

7.7​

6.5​

2​

Houston SPREAD

7.2​

7.2​

6.6​

6.5​

7.6​

6.3​

3​

GA Tech FLEXBONE

7.2​

5.3​

4.9​

7.8​

6.5​

5.7​

4​

Stanford PRO

7.1​

7.2​

7.2​

6.5​

7.8​

6.6​

5​

Baylor SPREAD

7.0​

6.2​

6.3​

7.3​

6.4​

6.5​

6​

Oregon SPREAD

7.0​

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

5.7​

6.7​

7​

Texas A&M SINGLEBACK

6.7​

6.9​

8.2​

7.0​

6.3​

5.5​

8​

Michigan SPREAD

6.7​

6.1​

3.4​

7.5​

5.2​

6.5​

9​

Washington PRO

6.7​

6.7​

7.9​

7.4​

5.8​

5.4​

10​

Oklahoma SINGLEBACK

6.7​

7.2​

6.9​

7.2​

6.0​

5.5​

11​

N Illinois NO PHUCKING CLUE

6.6​

6.8​

8.5​

7.2​

6.1​

6.9​

12​

Alabama PRO

6.6​

6.5​

9.0​

6.8​

6.4​

6.7​

Interesting -- no true correlation bewteen styles and yards.

 

[dollarbill44]

for the second time in this megathread, i ask how i'm screwing up the context.

the defense is better than the offense, but the defense is more to blame for TOP than the offense?

You're putting words in my mouth, er, on my fingers. I never said they are more to blame, but pointed out that the defense bears some of the blame of the offense not being on the field as much as they should/could be and that has a negative effect on the statistics.

For example, Toledo started the game with a drive of 10:34 minutes of game clock and kicked a FG. We fumbled right away on our first possession. Toledo had the ball for nearly 13 minutes of the first quarter.
So the defense allowed a 22 play, 10:34 drive that resulted in only a FG. The total number of yards given up for one quarter wasn't awful, but the TOP was terrible. As for the offense, shame on them for fumbling, but they didn't really get much of a chance after that to do anything in the quarter and their stats were woeful.

Granted, this is just a snapshot, but it illustrates how the play of the defense impacts the offensive stats and hence how context needs to be considered when looking at stats to derive real meaning.

 

[dollarbill44]

Top 12 offenses as defined by yards per play (first column) :

1​

Wisconsin PRO

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

7.4​

7.7​

6.5​

2​

Houston SPREAD

7.2​

7.2​

6.6​

6.5​

7.6​

6.3​

3​

GA Tech FLEXBONE

7.2​

5.3​

4.9​

7.8​

6.5​

5.7​

4​

Stanford PRO

7.1​

7.2​

7.2​

6.5​

7.8​

6.6​

5​

Baylor SPREAD

7.0​

6.2​

6.3​

7.3​

6.4​

6.5​

6​

Oregon SPREAD

7.0​

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

5.7​

6.7​

7​

Texas A&M SINGLEBACK

6.7​

6.9​

8.2​

7.0​

6.3​

5.5​

8​

Michigan SPREAD

6.7​

6.1​

3.4​

7.5​

5.2​

6.5​

9​

Washington PRO

6.7​

6.7​

7.9​

7.4​

5.8​

5.4​

10​

Oklahoma SINGLEBACK

6.7​

7.2​

6.9​

7.2​

6.0​

5.5​

11​

N Illinois NO PHUCKING CLUE

6.6​

6.8​

8.5​

7.2​

6.1​

6.9​

12​

Alabama PRO

6.6​

6.5​

9.0​

6.8​

6.4​

6.7​

Interesting -- no true correlation bewteen styles and yards.

This is a very interesting tidbit for those who claim that Pro-style offenses can't work in college. Why top 12 and not 10 or 20? It would even more interesting to see this for all FBS teams, by offensive ranking.

 

[Millhouse]

This is a very interesting tidbit for those who claim that Pro-style offenses can't work in college. Why top 12 and not 10 or 20? It would even more interesting to see this for all FBS teams, by offensive ranking.

heupel played under leach... haven't watched much oklahoma

who cares about yards per play?

i care about yards.

just like preventing sacks isn't the objective of the offense, neither is yards per play

 

[Millhouse]

Top 12 offenses as defined by yards per play (first column) :

1​

Wisconsin PRO

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

7.4​

7.7​

6.5​

2​

Houston SPREAD

7.2​

7.2​

6.6​

6.5​

7.6​

6.3​

3​

GA Tech FLEXBONE

7.2​

5.3​

4.9​

7.8​

6.5​

5.7​

4​

Stanford PRO

7.1​

7.2​

7.2​

6.5​

7.8​

6.6​

5​

Baylor SPREAD

7.0​

6.2​

6.3​

7.3​

6.4​

6.5​

6​

Oregon SPREAD

7.0​

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

5.7​

6.7​

7​

Texas A&M SINGLEBACK

6.7​

6.9​

8.2​

7.0​

6.3​

5.5​

8​

Michigan SPREAD

6.7​

6.1​

3.4​

7.5​

5.2​

6.5​

9​

Washington PRO

6.7​

6.7​

7.9​

7.4​

5.8​

5.4​

10​

Oklahoma SINGLEBACK

6.7​

7.2​

6.9​

7.2​

6.0​

5.5​

11​

N Illinois NO PHUCKING CLUE

6.6​

6.8​

8.5​

7.2​

6.1​

6.9​

12​

Alabama PRO

6.6​

6.5​

9.0​

6.8​

6.4​

6.7​

Interesting -- no true correlation bewteen styles and yards.

that's one way to look at it.

if you put oklahoma as spread (heupel is a leach disciple) and include northern illinois (thanks google), that's half.

splat goes the wall again

 

[Millhouse]

56th -- it appears as if 3rd down defense is absolutely killing us this year.
- 116 out of 120 in number of 3rd downs attempts on us per game, and the are converting nearly half.
- 40% is about average this year -- if we were average in 3rd down defense, we'd get an extra possesion and a half per game.

This suggests the defense is giving up (outside of Tulane) longer drives than average due to piss poor defense on third down. AKA the death by a thousand cuts D.

interesting. we're better in yards per play on defense than offense. i kinda figured that since you switched away from that to focus on 3rd down in the same post

edit - i have that goofed up. scratch all that

 

[Chip]

Top 12 offenses as defined by yards per play (first column) :

1​

WisconsinPRO

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

7.4​

7.7​

6.5​

2​

HoustonSPREAD

7.2​

7.2​

6.6​

6.5​

7.6​

6.3​

3​

GA TechFLEXBONE

7.2​

5.3​

4.9​

7.8​

6.5​

5.7​

4​

StanfordPRO

7.1​

7.2​

7.2​

6.5​

7.8​

6.6​

5​

BaylorSPREAD

7.0​

6.2​

6.3​

7.3​

6.4​

6.5​

6​

OregonSPREAD

7.0​

7.5​

7.5​

7.8​

5.7​

6.7​

7​

Texas A&MSINGLEBACK

6.7​

6.9​

8.2​

7.0​

6.3​

5.5​

8​

MichiganSPREAD

6.7​

6.1​

3.4​

7.5​

5.2​

6.5​

9​

WashingtonPRO

6.7​

6.7​

7.9​

7.4​

5.8​

5.4​

10​

OklahomaSINGLEBACK

6.7​

7.2​

6.9​

7.2​

6.0​

5.5​

11​

N IllinoisNO PHUCKING CLUE

6.6​

6.8​

8.5​

7.2​

6.1​

6.9​

12​

AlabamaPRO

6.6​

6.5​

9.0​

6.8​

6.4​

6.7​

Interesting -- no true correlation bewteen styles and yards.

So since we run the same offense as Northern Illinois, we have no excuses.

 

[billsin01]

And that is why I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when we discuss the O. No one... let me repeat: NO ONE... expects us to be Oregon. But in year 3 of Marrone's tenure, with a 2 1/2 year starting QB and a veteran OL, we should be better than 90th in the freakin' country on offense. And that's playing against some mediocre defenses.

And that is all I have ever tried to say and it's not like we are playing a murderers row schedule either. I mean USC is good but people talk of teams like WVU and USC as if they are the 2001 Miami Hurricanes as if it is so unreasonable to expect to move the ball and score some points and play the game.. geeze

Yeah, I think where a lot of us are arguing is in certain gray areas that have no answer (nassib's ceiling, our general talent level, recruiting). To me there are a couple issues that are black and white:

1) Our offense should be better than it is. Great? No. Good? Not necessarily. But better than abysmal? Yes.
2) At some point we need to actually begin installing the system and/or running the plays that Marrone eventually wants to run here. I'm not saying you necessarily have to shoe horn in every aspect of the offense, but you have to find some way to begin laying the ground work and running the type of stuff you envision. If you're waiting for ideal personnel, you could be waiting a long, long time.

 

[dollarbill44]

splat goes the wall again

Lol.

 

[RF2044]

heupel played under leach... haven't watched much oklahoma

who cares about yards per play?

i care about yards.

just like preventing sacks isn't the objective of the offense, neither is yards per play

Who cares about yards? I care about points.

And it is tough to score points or generate positive yardage when you're going backwards.

 

[sufandu]

The fact that he is quoting that defense will win football games is mind boggling, he needs to stop with the Woody Hayes Bo Schembeckler nonsense. If you are Bama or LSU sure you can get away with it, that said 95% of college teams in America are out trying to win with offense, yet are coach still thinks he is in the NFL... If he has put all are athletes on defense, why does that stink now too. It's a load of crap

It may be true that most are trying to win with offense but if you look at most of the recent national champions they had top defenses. Auburn is more an exception and even they had a dominant DT that blew up everything Oregon tried to do in the championship game last year.

 

[javadoc]

i care about yards.

I would genuinely like to hear Marrone's answer to the following (off the record):

If we were running a spread offense with our current personnel, how do you think it would affect our YPG, PPG, TOP, and W/L record?

Wonder what he would say if I called that in to the weekly show.

 

[CIL]

heupel played under leach... haven't watched much oklahoma

who cares about yards per play?

i care about yards.

just like preventing sacks isn't the objective of the offense, neither is yards per play

This is just a dumb comment. The offense doesn't worry about yards it gains on a play? Seriously? I would think the offense wants to gain more yards than less yards on a play, but I just may be crazy.

Yards per play is a much better measurement of offensive explosiveness than total yards. It's not rocket science Milly. A team could very well have an explosive offense but not get the number possessions due to things lime shitty team defense, etc. More yards per play x number of plays = better offense.

Would you agree that a team who runs 10 plays for 200 yards is more explosive than one who runs 30 for 200?

 

[Millhouse]

I would genuinely like to hear Marrone's answer to the following (off the record):

If we were running a spread offense with our current personnel, how do you think it would affect our YPG, PPG, TOP, and W/L record?

Wonder what he would say if I called that in to the weekly show.

no offense but it's kind of a ridiculous question putting people into an impossible spot

obviously marrone thinks all of them would go down. revealed preferences

 

[Millhouse]

This is just a dumb comment. The offense doesn't worry about yards it gains on a play? Seriously? I would think the offense wants to gain more yards than less yards on a play, but I just may be crazy.

Yards per play is a much better measurement of offensive explosiveness than total yards. It's not rocket science Milly. A team could very well have an explosive offense but not get the number possessions due to things lime shitty team defense, etc. More yards per play x number of plays = better offense.

Would you agree that a team who runs 10 plays for 200 yards is more explosive than one who runs 30 for 200?

yards are yards. i don't care how many plays it takes. who cares who's more explosive? what's really dumb is pretending like a 110th top team is effective at ball control. i don't care how bad the defense is.

 

[Millhouse]

Who cares about yards? I care about points.

And it is tough to score points or generate positive yardage when you're going backwards.

yards lead to points.

are you a baseball fan that doesn't care about hits?

 

[javadoc]

no offense but it's kind of a ridiculous question putting people into an impossible spot. obviously marrone thinks all of them would go down. revealed preferences

Not necessarily. It's possible he would say one or more would get better, but they aren't as important as some of the other factors. If he did say that all would be worse in a spread, I would ask him to analyze each one briefly to explain why that category would be worse.

What do you think he'd say?

 

[Millhouse]

Not necessarily. It's possible he would say one or more would get better, but they aren't as important as some of the other factors. If he did say that all would be worse in a spread, I would ask him to analyze each one briefly to explain why that category would be worse.

What do you think he'd say?

i think he would say if there was an offense that would improve yards, wins, time of possession, points, you name it, we'd be doing it

 

[Pearl309]

This thread is phenomenal... I can picture millhouse squirming... Desperation... Hail Mary

 

[RF2044]

yards lead to points.

are you a baseball fan that doesn't care about hits?

Oh Lord

 

[OrangeMuskyFish]

yards lead to points.

are you a baseball fan that doesn't care about hits?

I love baseball, and I care a crap-ton about hits... but it's kind of odd hearing that argument from you, because I kind of picture you as a SABR kind of guy who wants nothing else than to tell me how batting average means squat.

 

[CIL]

yards lead to points.

are you a baseball fan that doesn't care about hits?

Did you over look the points per play stat I posted? We're 39th pre - WVU. If the offense had more plays, we'd have more points.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

Who cares if Marrone and Rahme are wrong if we kick the crap out of the rest of the teams on our schedule like we did to the Mountaineers tonight. Who would have thought we'd put up the most points ever scored by a Syracuse team against WVU with this dink offense?