Marrone punt history

[Millhouse]

Big room for improvement here. No reason he can't address this. He's improved in lots of ways, I'm not ruling this out.

from espn play by play data. i've cobbled this manually together over a few days, i might have missed others that are bad. I hope that this stuff scares off an NFL team even just a little (hopefully they know his track record) but is corrected at Syracuse by Marrone next year

before anyone yells at me, i know that a bunch of these came in great wins. I'm just looking at the decision in isolation. and not all of these are equally bad. i actually put this together to try to talk a buffalo radio guy (who hates punts) out of wanting marrone so we can keep him

2012

USC 8:08 left in 1st quarter tied 0-0
4th and 9 at USC 32 PUNT

USC 13:00 left down in 4th quarter 28-16
4th and 2 at USC 49 PUNT

Stony Brook 11:00 left in 4th quarter up 21-17
4th and 1 at STON 48 PUNT

Minn 12:00 left in 2nd quarter down 7-3
4th and 5 at MINN 45 PUNT

Pitt 12:00 left in 3rd quarter up 14-10
4th and 7 at PITT 42 PUNT

Cincy about 5 min left 1st quarter down 7-0
4th and 4 at CIN 42 PUNT

Mizzou about 2 min left 1st quarter down 14-3
4th and 8 at MIZZ 38 PUNT

Mizzou about 11 min left 3rd quarter down 17-10
4th and 6 at MIZZ 36 PUNT

Temple 5 min left 4th quarter up 31-20
4th and 3 at TEM 43 PUNT

WVU 14 min left 2nd quarter up 3-0
4th and 5 at WVU 37 PUNT

2011

USC down 24-10 in the 3rd quarter,
4th and 12 at the USC 39 PUNT

Louisville Down 14-3 in the 3rd Q
4th and 3 on Louisville 49 PUNT

USF down 10-0 in the 2nd quarter
4th and 13 on USF 40 PUNT

Pitt down 20-10 in the 2nd
4th and 3 from pitt 38 PUNT

2010

Louisville Down 28-20 with less than 7 min left.
4th and 3 at the SU 42 PUNT

Washington down 27-10 in the 3rd
4th and 5 at UW 42 PUNT.

Washington Down 41-20 with 6 min left
4th and 8 from the SU 40 PUNT

WVU in the 3rd quarter
4th and 12 at WVU 39 PUNT

BC down 3-0 in the first.
4th and 8 at BC 38 PUNT

BC Down 16-7 with less than 6:00 to play
4th and 2 from the SU 29 PUNT

2009

PSU down 14-0 in 2nd quarter
4th and 2 from PSU 35 PUNT

WVU first quarter down 7-0.
4th and 4 at WVU 42 PUNT

WVU Down 14-0 in 2nd quarter
4th and 1 at SYR 43 Punt

WVU Down 27-0 2nd quarterpunt
4th and 7 at SYR 45 PUNT

WVU Down 27-0 2nd quarter
4th and 6 at WVU 47 PUNT

WVU Down 34-7 4th quarter
4th and 9 at WVU 47 PUNT

Cincy first quarter 0-0
4th and 6 at CIN 38 PUNT

Cincy 3rd quarter Down 21-7
4th and 1 at CIN 48 PUNT

Pitt in first quarter
4th and 1 at PITT 47 PUNT

Pitt in 2nd quarter
4th and 1 at PITT 45 punt

Louisville in the 3rd quarter in 3-3 game
4th and 2 at LOU 44 PUNT

 

[MikeSU02]

I don't know the personalities / strategy preferences of the coaches, individually, but do we have an advocate on the sidelines that thinks along the lines you do?

If given the power, would Hackett be going for it on all 4th downs less than 3 yards?

 

[upperdeck]

I dont think down and distance is always the answer. Its more momentum of the game that matters to me. the USC game is the best example of a game where we could have taken the gamble maybe taken a lead or control and the downside was not that huge.. USC tried it early and failed and it cost them nothing. in four years what have we tried maybe one fake FG? the WV game we went for it more because of weather than anything else but i think it shows that as he trusted the team more he was more willing to open it up..

 

[CuseIsInTheHouse]

I thought your post was strange, but I did a little research on the topic and discovered that teams should be going for it a lot more than they do. In college football, the average net punt is 37.5 yards. That really doesn't flip the field very much. Below is a link to a study done earlier this season that explains why going for it on fourth down isn't as much of a risk as people think.
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...n-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble

 

[Millhouse]

I thought your post was strange, but I did a little research on the topic and discovered that teams should be going for it a lot more than they do. In college football, the average net punt is 37.5 yards. That really doesn't flip the field very much. Below is a link to a study done earlier this season that explains why going for it on fourth down isn't as much of a risk as people think.
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble[/quote]

the best research was by david romer a while ago. big time economist, not some schmuck. everything else just puts a different spin on that paper.

http://www.mth.msu.edu/~ywang/Misc/David_Romer_JPE_April06.pdf

i think it's explained best in Thinking Fast and Slow aka best book ever

when people can't answer a tough question, they substitute one in that they can

"quick 4th and 4 does kicking maximize my chances of winning or does not kicking? i don't know that's a hard question! substitute question time! does kicking maximize the amount of time where i have any chance at all? that's an easy question YES! KICK!"

coaches could easily replace their current stupid rules of thumb with smarter ones that are just as easy to remember. like don't punt inside the 40. i can't believe that's something i have to hope marrone figures out.

 

[CuseIsInTheHouse]

Great article. I'm going to print and read entirely. In Marrone's defense, most coaches haven't figured this out or adopted this philosophy. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't change either.

 

[Cuseregular]

the best research was by david romer a while ago. big time economist, not some schmuck. everything else just puts a different spin on that paper.

http://www.mth.msu.edu/~ywang/Misc/David_Romer_JPE_April06.pdf

i think it's explained best in Thinking Fast and Slow aka best book ever

when people can't answer a tough question, they substitute one in that they can

"quick 4th and 4 does kicking maximize my chances of winning or does not kicking? i don't know that's a hard question! substitute question time! does kicking maximize the amount of time where i have any chance at all? that's an easy question YES! KICK!"

coaches could easily replace their current stupid rules of thumb with smarter ones that are just as easy to remember. like don't punt inside the 40. i can't believe that's something i have to hope marrone figures out.

if I could like this post a 100x I would. What a cool article.

 

[Millhouse]

if I could like this post a 100x I would. What a cool article.

you might like this
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/6465/belichicks-idea-born-years-ago

 

[Millhouse]

I dont think down and distance is always the answer. Its more momentum of the game that matters to me. the USC game is the best example of a game where we could have taken the gamble maybe taken a lead or control and the downside was not that huge.. USC tried it early and failed and it cost them nothing. in four years what have we tried maybe one fake FG? the WV game we went for it more because of weather than anything else but i think it shows that as he trusted the team more he was more willing to open it up..

if players and coaches were rational, they wouldn't feel like they gained or lost momentum as much as they do

they only reason teams feel like a failed 4th down gives the other team so much momentum is because they're irrationally biased about the outcomes in the first place

i doubt that the kids in arkansas sweat it too much when they don't convert because they've been through it enough to know it's not a big deal and their coach teaches them the math

 

[SWC75]

Years ago Gene Stallings was coaching Alabama in one of their confrontations with Florida for the SEC title. It was 4th and 12 very late in the game. Stallings went for it but used a running play, (and not a draw play- it was, as I recall, a sweep). The color guy, when asked if that was a good call call, said , "Well Gene is a very conservative coach..." I thought to myself: Isn't being conservative playing the percentages and going with the option that is most likely to work? That surely wasn't it. I thought Stallings took a great risk that that play would fail, (and it basically ended the game). Sometimes we call things conservative when they are really anyhting but. Marrone has often said that he doesn't want to put his team in a bad positon should a play fail. But sometimes the 'conservative' option can put your team ina bad position.

I'd love to see a coach, (especially our coach), decide not to punt in the other team's territory, unless we are specifically trying to pin the other team down in front of their goal line. And if we are going to do that, we need to practice the "coffin corner" kick a lot more than we do. A touchback on a punt from the opponent's territory gains you very little.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

i doubt that the kids in arkansas sweat it too much when they don't convert because they've been through it enough to know it's not a big deal and their coach teaches them the math

This is a hugely neglected aspect of developing the mentality to go for it, or changing the heuristics for when to punt vs not.

 

[Millhouse]

I thought your post was strange, but I did a little research on the topic and discovered that teams should be going for it a lot more than they do. In college football, the average net punt is 37.5 yards. That really doesn't flip the field very much. Below is a link to a study done earlier this season that explains why going for it on fourth down isn't as much of a risk as people think.
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble[/quote]
btw, this is a great paragraph in your link

"Going for it on 4th and 7 from your own 5 yard line is insane...right? Well, yeah, it seems like it. If you don’t get it, the other team will score an average of 5.8 points, almost a free touchdown. But the thing is, if you boot a 32 yard punt, the other team still gets the ball at your own 37. With that great field position, they will score an average of 3.4 points. You’re kind of stuck either way. So even though the odds of converting a 4th and 7 are slim (about 1 in 3), the statistics say the reward of not giving up possession is worth the risk."

Coaches greatly overestimate the value of 35 yards of field position

It's especially baffling when coaches like snyder do it when they're behind late.

 

[upperdeck]

the way SU move the ball this year for the most part i think anything inside the 50 was fair game to go for it if it was less than 4th and 10 or so.. we were close to 50% on 3rd down.. if we knew we were going to go on fourth we could have run some of those and made it 4th and manageable.. if you turn 4 punts into two first downs its worth the gamble..

 

[Millhouse]

Years ago Gene Stallings was coaching Alabama in one of their confrontations with Florida for the SEC title. It was 4th and 12 very late in the game. Stallings went for it but used a running play, (and not a draw play- it was, as I recall, a sweep). The color guy, when asked if that was a good call call, said , "Well Gene is a very conservative coach..." I thought to myself: Isn't being conservative playing the percentages and going with the option that is most likely to work? That surely wasn't it. I thought Stallings took a great risk that that play would fail, (and it basically ended the game). Sometimes we call things conservative when they are really anyhting but. Marrone has often said that he doesn't want to put his team in a bad positon should a play fail. But sometimes the 'conservative' option can put your team ina bad position.

I'd love to see a coach, (especially our coach), decide not to punt in the other team's territory, unless we are specifically trying to pin the other team down in front of their goal line. And if we are going to do that, we need to practice the "coffin corner" kick a lot more than we do. A touchback on a punt from the opponent's territory gains you very little.

i think the coffin corner punting is another area where coaches don't know the stats. to be honest, neither do i but my hunch is that it's so much harder than coaches think it is. it is so much harder to aim a punted football than a punted soccer ball.

people are so quick to point out jeff feagles but to me that just demonstrates their bias. if it were easier to do, they wouldn't have to point to some anomalous dinosaur

 

[Millhouse]

the way SU move the ball this year for the most part i think anything inside the 50 was fair game to go for it if it was less than 4th and 10 or so.. we were close to 50% on 3rd down.. if we knew we were going to go on fourth we could have run some of those and made it 4th and manageable.. if you turn 4 punts into two first downs its worth the gamble..

it's really inexcuseable to punt inside the 40 4 times this year. that's part of the mystery why they gained so many yards but didn't score much.

 

[SWC75]

i think the coffin corner punting is another area where coaches don't know the stats. to be honest, neither do i but my hunch is that it's so much harder than coaches think it is. it is so much harder to aim a punted football than a punted soccer ball.

people are so quick to point out jeff feagles but to me that just demonstrates their bias. if it were easier to do, they wouldn't have to point to some anomalous dinosaur

You'd love the FCS title game I'm wathcing. Due to a couple of personnel fouls on Sam Houston State, North Dakota State kicked off from the SHS 35. They squibbed it rather than going for the onsides kick. :bang:

Nothing to do with this but the old Cowboy receiver Drew Pearson was on the sideline and was interviewed. he was asked why the teams were having trouble scoring. "They need to do better on third down. if they made more third downs, they wouldn't be punting so much." Wow. You really think so, Drew?

 

[Millhouse]

You'd love the FCS title game I'm wathcing. Due to a couple of personnel fouls on Sam Houston State, North Dakota State kicked off from the SHS 35. They squibbed it rather than going for the onsides kick. :bang:

Nothing to do with this but the old Cowboy receiver Drew Pearson was on the sideline and was interviewed. he was asked why the teams were having trouble scoring. "They need to do better on third down. if they made more third downs, they wouldn't be punting so much." Wow. You really think so, Drew?

That's pretty funny about the onside kick

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