Maybe we should listen to the Bracket Experts, Because

[jncuse]

I get that. But this is the kind of wide open, crazy year where you don't want to be exposed to conference tourney cinderellas. This is the kind of year where that could happen more often than normal. I'd feel confident in saying that if SU loses that first game then we are toast.

There has not been a P5 or P6 conference cinderella in the last 8 years since Georgia in the SEC. The A-10 has had some strange stuff so it's always a concern. I am sure one of the 4 AAC contenders will win, and knock out somebody else within the AAC in the process.

In terms of potential bubble buster teams from lower tier conferences none of Arkanas St, Monmouth, Valpo, SD St have a clean shot at an at-large. They all have a shot to varying degrees at an at-large, but none huge.

The biggest potential bubble buster was Wichita St. And that is done.. and we are still in as of tomorrow.

 

[jncuse]

If SU loses to Pitt that will mean lost 5 of 6 coming in, very low RPI, .500 record in ACC, several bad losses and some (not all) quality wins that happened 3-1/2 months ago.

I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well.

And I'm not arguing that we are sure to get in if we lose to Pitt. Far from that, and it was never implied anywhere in this thread, I will however, make a take on it tomorrow night after all this weekend's game are played, and it will be based on what other teams need to do.

I did say that it was 100% if we beat Pitt, and I stand by that.

But if we lose, it's not a vacuum, and our timing of wins is irrelevant.

 

[MGP]

There has not been a P5 or P6 conference cinderella in the last 8 years since Georgia in the SEC. The A-10 has had some strange stuff so it's always a concern. I am sure one of the 4 AAC contenders will win, and knock out somebody else within the AAC in the process.

In terms of potential bubble buster teams from lower tier conferences none of Arkanas St, Monmouth, Valpo, SD St have a clean shot at an at-large. They all have a shot to varying degrees at an at-large, but none huge.

The biggest potential bubble buster was Wichita St. And that is done.. and we are still in as of tomorrow.

Stop with all these facts, don't you know these decisions are made based on feelings...

 

[bpo57]

There has not been a P5 or P6 conference cinderella in the last 8 years since Georgia in the SEC. The A-10 has had some strange stuff so it's always a concern. I am sure one of the 4 AAC contenders will win, and knock out somebody else within the AAC in the process.

In terms of potential bubble buster teams from lower tier conferences none of Arkanas St, Monmouth, Valpo, SD St have a clean shot at an at-large. They all have a shot to varying degrees at an at-large, but none huge.

The biggest potential bubble buster was Wichita St. And that is done.. and we are still in as of tomorrow.

When you say we are in - do you have a special pipeline to the Committee? Not trying to be harsh but I just don't understand how you can say that.

 

[jncuse]

For my own good, I am going to step away from this thread. We are at a stalemate, and more info will come to light before our next game. At that point I will asssess.


I promise to make an assessment tomorrow night in the bubble thread, which will be based on what people did this weekend, and what teams need to do around us going forward.

People are free to analyze it and question it tomorrow.

 

[bpo57]

And I'm not arguing that we are sure to get in if we lose to Pitt. Far from that, and it was never implied anywhere in this thread, I will however, make a take on it tomorrow night after all this weekend's game are played, and it will be based on what other teams need to do.

I did say that it was 100% if we beat Pitt, and I stand by that.

But if we lose, it's not a vacuum, and our timing of wins is irrelevant.

You're kind of defensive about the whole thread. You're not responsible for the myriad of opinions here.

Committees can say all they want that timing doesn't matter but when you finish on a bad roll you pay the price.- whether it's exclusion or in seeding.

 

[Delmar]

I'm with the Hulk on this one. Reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated.

 

[jdubs30]

I don't know if it does, but I compared them to us to see if they would jump us.

The BC game does nothing for a resume. Its a nuisance game. The Virginia Tech game helps them. But if you compare the two of us, we are both 9-10 in ACC play after that. We played each other twice. They play Miami, Clemson, NC St twice. We play UNC, Pitt and BC twice.

And in terms of OOC they have quality wins over VCU and Florida. Good Advantage to us (Texas AM, UConn, St Bonnue).
Marquee in conferece wins are Virginia and Notre Dame. Ours are at Duke and Notre Dame (Draw since Duke was on the road)
The worst loss in conferece was Clemson (like us)

We have St. John's which offsets that extra win.

It would be close.

FSU has to make up ground. Beating BC and VaTech aren't resume builders; all it does is keep them alive for a shot at UVA. You could argue FSU would rather be in the 8/9 game -- a win vs. Pitt would help them way more.

In order to knock us out of our at-large spot, teams have to rack up a solid win. I'm not familiar with the B10 bracket, but if Michigan beat Minnesota in round 1 then lost in round 2, that won't help them at all. FSU is in the same spot.

The 4/5 game in the AAC is UConn and Cincy. That is a true play in game. Our game vs. Pitt is very close to a play-in game, but I could see us both in no matter what if other things fall right; I can't see the UConn/UC loser getting a spot...

 

[jdubs30]

Also I'd love another shot at UNC. It's ironic that we are all freaking out about not being in but if we go 2-1 next week we will probably be a 6 or 7 seed...

 

[MGP]

FSU has to make up ground. Beating BC and VaTech aren't resume builders; all it does is keep them alive for a shot at UVA. You could argue FSU would rather be in the 8/9 game -- a win vs. Pitt would help them way more.

In order to knock us out of our at-large spot, teams have to rack up a solid win. I'm not familiar with the B10 bracket, but if Michigan beat Minnesota in round 1 then lost in round 2, that won't help them at all. FSU is in the same spot.

The 4/5 game in the AAC is UConn and Cincy. That is a true play in game. Our game vs. Pitt is very close to a play-in game, but I could see us both in no matter what if other things fall right; I can't see the UConn/UC loser getting a spot...

Not positive, but think Michigan may have N'Western in first game, then possibly Indiana...

 

[Briancuse]

Has Lunardi updated his bracket yet?

 

[jncuse]

FSU has to make up ground. Beating BC and VaTech aren't resume builders; all it does is keep them alive for a shot at UVA. You could argue FSU would rather be in the 8/9 game -- a win vs. Pitt would help them way more.

In order to knock us out of our at-large spot, teams have to rack up a solid win. I'm not familiar with the B10 bracket, but if Michigan beat Minnesota in round 1 then lost in round 2, that won't help them at all. FSU is in the same spot.

The 4/5 game in the AAC is UConn and Cincy. That is a true play in game. Our game vs. Pitt is very close to a play-in game, but I could see us both in no matter what if other things fall right; I can't see the UConn/UC loser getting a spot...

You nailed it.

 

[kirbivore]

Wrong.

No he's right. Louisville's post season ban means SU and everyone else below them moves up seed line for the ACCT, putting SU in the 8/9 game. But SU did finish 10th place.

 

[kirbivore]

This

For the people who think we are in, when have we ever got a break from the selection committee before?

Looking at the last four in/first four out I think SU is better than those teams and a win Wednesday should be enough. But the paranoid side of me agrees with you that every time SU has been near they bubble they've been left out. IMO 2007 was the only real screw job. In a previous post I looked at SU's 1997 rpi info and that team really needed to beat #1 Nova in the BET to have any shot. The logical side of me says beating #1 UNC this year in the ACCT would be great, but SU still gets in just by beating Pitt and getting another shot at UNC.

 

[two3zone]

it's no use bees...opinion and frustration trumps fact yet again

You have said the word fact about 20 times in this thread always followed by essentially saying that were a lock to get it with these facts.

The sad part is you're ignoring a lot of facts yourself. Get off your horse.

 

[pearl31]

It's really no use trying to discuss this with folks that a) are convinced Syracuse doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, b) are convinced he committee is out to get Syracuse, and c) aren't willing to accept that the resume of Syracuse November-Now is simply compared to the November-Now resumes of the other bubble teams.
oh well

 

[HOFCeluck]

People freaking out over the NCAA screwing us when we're on the bubble ...we've been in that position four times in twenty years. Awesome sample size tho.

 

[MSOrange]

People freaking out over the NCAA screwing us when we're on the bubble ...we've been in that position four times in twenty years. Awesome sample size tho.

And we only truly got legitimately screwed one of those times

 

[HOFCeluck]

And we only truly got legitimately screwed one of those times

Right...I'm pretty sure the loss to Nova in the BET in 2008 effectively took us out of consideration for the tourney.

And we were long shots at best in 02 and 97.

2007 sucked though.

 

[jdubs30]

Has Lunardi updated his bracket yet?

No. During the Duke/UNC halftime he did say we were still in for now but had to do work next week.

FWIW, CBS updated their bracket after all the games yesterday -- they have us a 10 vs. South Carolina in Spokane with Oregon as the 2

 

[MGP]

You have said the word fact about 20 times in this thread always followed by essentially saying that were a lock to get it with these facts.

The sad part is you're ignoring a lot of facts yourself. Get off your horse.

Never even came close to insinuating that we are a lock to get in. Don't put words in my mouth...the facts I'm ignoring are the ones that don't necessarily factor into the committee's decision...

 

[Chris02M]

We basically gave ourselves the hardest road in the ACCT, drawing our kryptonite in Pitt and then having to play UNC if we win.

FSU, GaTech and VaTech are in much better position to make a run. We are in the position of competing directly against them for some of the last at large bids. Need to hope they all lose their first games.

I wouldnt mind another unc game as we match up well with them.pitt will be a tough hard fought game hopefully we win the last 4 mins this time

 

[Chris02M]

Im doing a total evaluation of the entire group of potential field teams tonight to see exactly what every teams resume is going into tournament week

 

[NineOneSeven]

If we lose to pitt this week and don't make it, what an absolute letdown down the stretch.

Unfortunately I have zero confidence at all. It's amazing va tech actually dominated Miami to force us into playing pitt.

We've had our chances the last month to get big wins and we just haven't done it. Hopefully everything clicks next week because we desperately need TEAM basketball.

Unfortunately I would be borderline surprised if we win. Pitt is seriously just a team that gets it when they play us.

I didn't expect us to make the tourney this year, but considering at one point we really turned it around, this ending would be a big big disappointment.

 

[Dave85]

If we lose to pitt this week and don't make it, what an absolute letdown down the stretch.

Unfortunately I have zero confidence at all. It's amazing va tech actually dominated Miami to force us into playing pitt.

We've had our chances the last month to get big wins and we just haven't done it. Hopefully everything clicks next week because we desperately need TEAM basketball.

Unfortunately I would be borderline surprised if we win. Pitt is seriously just a team that gets it when they play us.

I didn't expect us to make the tourney this year, but considering at one point we really turned it around, this ending would be a big big disappointment.

I'm not sure this team is really capable of beating Pitt. They seem to have our number. However, this is CBB and on any given day any team can beat any other team. There's always a chance. Cooney is due for a career day after such dismal performances. We shall see.