Maybe we should listen to the Bracket Experts, Because

[Briancuse]

we play pitt.

Does 19-13 keep us in?

This is a play in game.

 

[MGP]

...after Michigan loses tonight.

Don't jinx it! Hold on Hawkeyes!

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I am not denying your 25% figure for a team in the 61-70 range.

But right now there are 4 Power5 teams that are in the 61-70 range after Michigan loses tonight. And there will be one team that is in the tournament -- 25%. (it might be 2)

Syracuse
Michigan
Georgia Tech
Florida St

Not every team above has the same probability to get in. While the RPI is in the same range some clearly have better resumes than the other.

If only 1 can get picked (25% of teams) the great majority will pick Syracuse, some will take Michigan, and none will take the other two.

I don't know how I can make it any simpler for you. It's the resume that matters.

Obviously the actual resumes are used to select the final teams. You seem comfortable with a 25% chance of getting in. I'm not.

Also, keep in mind that there's no guarantee ANY of the P5 teams with a 60+ RPI will get in, just that historically 1 in 4 get in.

I'll feel a lot better if we beat Pitt.

 

[jncuse]

depends what other bubble teams do

Good to see Chris is backing me up on this.

Too many other people just make general comments without looking at what is happening around us.

 

[Chris02M]

without doing a complete evaluation of all teams but mostly the bubble teams to me id say a win over pitt and we should be safely in

 

[MGP]

Good to see Chris is backing me up on this.

Too many other people just make general comments without looking at what is happening around us.

Triple like! Then assume that you feel "comfortable", which has never been stated, much less implied...

 

[jncuse]

without doing a complete evaluation of all teams but mostly the bubble teams to me id say a win over pitt and we should be safely in

Chris, without considering bubble busters, what teams on the outside right now do you think have a decent case on moving up to take a spot from someobdy? I view that group as so weak.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I am not aware that I said anything close to that.

I was trying to make the case that our resume matters, not our individual RPI. What matters is resume. Here is what matters:
1) Beat Pitt and we are in
2) Lose to Pitt, hope the teams outside of the bubble continue to implode and then compare resumes of teams on the bubble line.

I have no clue what the % of teams in the 60s will ultimately be in, nor does it have any relevance. You are infatuated on the RPI as a means of assessing our chances which is just ... not good.

Are you really pinning our chances on getting into the tourney on wins vs St Bonny and Texas A&M in November?

We're basically a .500 team since then.

 

[MGP]

What if Fla.St. beats BC & Va. Tech before they lose to Virginia? Seems plausible. Does that get them close to the above line?

 

[Briancuse]

Are you really pinning our chances on getting into the tourney on wins vs St Bonny and Texas A&M in November?

We're basically a .500 team since then.

Since beating Notre Dame back in Jan, what have we done? Beat a winless Bc team, and beat Nc State team at home.

 

[jncuse]

Are you really pinning our chances on getting into the tourney on wins vs St Bonny and Texas A&M in November?

We're basically a .500 team since then.

I'm pinning our chances on having one of the best at large resumes. That means looking at what the teams are doing around us that are currently in, and the fact that the teams currently outside the bubble line are weak,

The last 4 teams out entering today were, and none of them had a significanly positive result except FSU who needs more than one good win to get above the line:
Gonzaga
Florida (beat at terrible Missouri team)
George Washington (loss to Davidson
Temple
After that it was a big gap.

We are in as of now, and we have to get caught. And it is a bad group of chasers. I don't think it can be argued. If there are no bubble busters, or a limited amout we are in good shape.

There were 14 teams entering today that were in. We were not the only one that loss. 4 others already did, and it could soon be 5. So we are not even the first team to be replaced wiht a loss.

 

[MGP]

Are you really pinning our chances on getting into the tourney on wins vs St Bonny and Texas A&M in November?

We're basically a .500 team since then.

as are most bubble teams...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Since beating Notre Dame back in Jan, what have we done? Beat a winless Bc team, and beat Nc State team at home.

Exactly. At some point you have to actually win games vs good teams.

 

[Chris02M]

Chris, without considering bubble busters, what teams on the outside right now do you think have a decent case on moving up to take a spot from someobdy? I view that group as so weak.

fsu
georgia tech
someone out of the aac mess
ohio state
florida

 

[MGP]

How this board views our tourney chances even though the facts are consistently being shown them

:bang::bang::bang:

 

[bpo57]

Nobody is making that assumption that we are comfortably in with a loss. That I am aware of anyway. We have a chance, but a slight one.

But many people last week on this board did scoff at the idea that was presented that only 1 win (FSU or game 1 of the ACC) would likely be enough. And that is indeed proving to be the case. But we have to win, which is problematic.

I get that. But this is the kind of wide open, crazy year where you don't want to be exposed to conference tourney cinderellas. This is the kind of year where that could happen more often than normal. I'd feel confident in saying that if SU loses that first game then we are toast.

 

[rrlbees]

Exactly. At some point you have to actually win games vs good teams.

And the same is true about the other borderline teams.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

We basically gave ourselves the hardest road in the ACCT, drawing our kryptonite in Pitt and then having to play UNC if we win.

FSU, GaTech and VaTech are in much better position to make a run. We are in the position of competing directly against them for some of the last at large bids. Need to hope they all lose their first games.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

And the same is true about the other borderline teams.

Yes, and FSU and VaTech actually did that today. We continue to suck at playing the game of basketball when it matters the most.

 

[bpo57]

If SU loses to Pitt that will mean lost 5 of 6 coming in, very low RPI, .500 record in ACC, several bad losses and some (not all) quality wins that happened 3-1/2 months ago.

I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end well.

 

[MGP]

Yes, and FSU and VaTech actually did that today. We continue to suck at playing the game of basketball when it matters the most.

Yes, but they are not even borderline...yet. Lots more work to get near the cut line. Not saying it couldn't happen, but compare us to the teams near us

 

[MGP]

And the same is true about the other borderline teams.

it's no use bees...opinion and frustration trumps fact yet again

 

[jncuse]

What if Fla.St. beats BC & Va. Tech before they lose to Virginia? Seems plausible. Does that get them close to the above line?

I don't know if it does, but I compared them to us to see if they would jump us.

The BC game does nothing for a resume. Its a nuisance game. The Virginia Tech game helps them. But if you compare the two of us, we are both 9-10 in ACC play after that. We played each other twice. They play Miami, Clemson, NC St twice. We play UNC, Pitt and BC twice.

And in terms of OOC they have quality wins over VCU and Florida. Good Advantage to us (Texas AM, UConn, St Bonnue).
Marquee in conferece wins are Virginia and Notre Dame. Ours are at Duke and Notre Dame (Draw since Duke was on the road)
The worst loss in conferece was Clemson (like us)

We have St. John's which offsets that extra win.

It would be close.

 

[jncuse]

fsu
georgia tech
someone out of the aac mess
ohio state
florida

Agreed but many of those teams are more than one game away.

And I am not sure if the AAC will be a bubble buster. although it is a complete mess. They have 3 spots in today as per the bracket matrix (UConn, Cincy, Tulsa). I'm not sure what permutation it will be, but I would be very surprised if it ends up with 4 of them getting in.

 

[MGP]

How about the irony that this whole thread has been spent arguing (and supporting) the OP by none other than...

:rolling: