MCW registers 16th double-double, is he ROY?

[Knicks411]

Won't be - http://grantland.com/features/nba-awards-season/.

Zach Lowe gets a vote, and went for Oladipo. I think his reasoning is pretty bad -

He’s been turnover-prone on offense, but he has shot better than Carter-Williams from just about everywhere, and his midrange pull-up looks promising. Playing with at least a few quality veterans boosts that efficiency, but plop him on a roster as bad as Philly’s, and his counting numbers would likely be at least as good as MCW’s — with better defense. Oladipo has also played in 10 more games, which counts on the margins.

I really, really don't like it when people use hypotheticals as grounds for awards. It's horrible in baseball. Now it's infecting the NBA.

Major downside of the stat geek revolution. Major downside.

I think Lowe probably overstated the case a little there, but it's not a terrible line of reasoning. The Sixers are terrible, granted Orlando isn't much better (Orlando only won 4 more games, but they had a point differential of 5 points per game better than Philly; jesus were the Sixers bad for the last few months) and they played the fastest pace in the league; if Oladipo was on the Sixers he would have better counting numbers than he did for Orlando cause he would have had more opportunities. You have to at least acknowledge that when giving out awards/evaluating guys. No matter how bad a team is, there are always points/rebounds/assists available for an NBA team.

MCW had a pretty bad shooting season (48% true shooting compared to 51% for Oladipo, so it's not like Oladipo was prime Steve Kerr or something), but that kinda goes hand in hand with his good raw numbers; someone had to take a lot of shots for that terrible team, and if he were on Orlando, or someone else, the raw numbers go down and the effficiency goes up. MCW had a slightly higher usage rate, better rebound/assist/turnover %'s. They played nearly the same # of minutes. Oladipio might be a better defender. I would say they are pretty close, with the edge for me going to MCW. If you put them on a per 36 basis, you get 17.4/6.5/6.6 with 48% true shooting for MCW vs 16/4.8/4.7/51% true shooting for Oladipo. Take some of the air out of those for MCW due to the pace, but the percentages are still better.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think Lowe probably overstated the case a little there, but it's not a terrible line of reasoning. The Sixers are terrible, granted Orlando isn't much better (Orlando only won 4 more games, but they had a point differential of 5 points per game better than Philly; jesus were the Sixers bad for the last few months) and they played the fastest pace in the league; if Oladipo was on the Sixers he would have better counting numbers than he did for Orlando cause he would have had more opportunities. You have to at least acknowledge that when giving out awards/evaluating guys. No matter how bad a team is, there are always points/rebounds/assists available for an NBA team.

MCW had a pretty bad shooting season (48% true shooting compared to 51% for Oladipo, so it's not like Oladipo was prime Steve Kerr or something), but that kinda goes hand in hand with his good raw numbers; someone had to take a lot of shots for that terrible team, and if he were on Orlando, or someone else, the raw numbers go down and the effficiency goes up. MCW had a slightly higher usage rate, better rebound/assist/turnover %'s. They played nearly the same # of minutes. Oladipio might be a better defender. I would say they are pretty close, with the edge for me going to MCW. If you put them on a per 36 basis, you get 17.4/6.5/6.6 with 48% true shooting for MCW vs 16/4.8/4.7/51% true shooting for Oladipo. Take some of the air out of those for MCW due to the pace, but the percentages are still better.

But see, it is a terrible line of reasoning and is inherently flawed and misused - you can't give awards based on what we think will happen. Awards have to reflect real achievement. Otherwise, you're basing your assessment on the unknown. It doesn't matter what we think happens if a scenario is different or how likely it might actually be. At a certain point you have to deal with the absolutes of real events - award granting is the perfect time for assessment in that manner.

That's been and likely will continue to be my big problem with the stat geek revolution of sports. Misapplied statistics are misapplied statistics. You want to use inferential arguments to hopefully predict the future, that's appropriate. Giving awards inferentially is not.

 

[Knicks411]

But see, it is a terrible line of reasoning and is inherently flawed and misused - you can't give awards based on what we think will happen. Awards have to reflect real achievement. Otherwise, you're basing your assessment on the unknown. It doesn't matter what we think happens if a scenario is different or how likely it might actually be. At a certain point you have to deal with the absolutes of real events - award granting is the perfect time for assessment in that manner.

That's been and likely will continue to be my big problem with the stat geek revolution of sports. Misapplied statistics are misapplied statistics. You want to use inferential arguments to hopefully predict the future, that's appropriate. Giving awards inferentially is not.

Philly had something like 7% more possessions in an average game than the Magic did. MCW should have better counting stats than Oladipo, he had more chances to put up the numbers and someone has to put up numbers.

I see where you are coming from from a baseball POV; there may have been a pitcher who had a a really good ERA but got lucky with stranding runners or babip or something, and his FIP wasn't great. When the season is over he should still get credit for the ERA he put up, because the those runs he didn't allow did help his team win more games. Whether or not that means he'll struggle to reach those numbers the next year is an issue for next year, not in the Cy Young voting for this year. But I'm talking about more adjusting for park effects. A run scored in Coors Field is not as valuable as one scored in Petco Park; would you not want to adjust for that when determining awards?

 

[OrangeDW]

Philly had something like 7% more possessions in an average game than the Magic did. MCW should have better counting stats than Oladipo, he had more chances to put up the numbers and someone has to put up numbers.

I see where you are coming from from a baseball POV; there may have been a pitcher who had a a really good ERA but got lucky with stranding runners or babip or something, and his FIP wasn't great. When the season is over he should still get credit for the ERA he put up, because the those runs he didn't allow did help his team win more games. Whether or not that means he'll struggle to reach those numbers the next year is an issue for next year, not in the Cy Young voting for this year. But I'm talking about more adjusting for park effects. A run scored in Coors Field is not as valuable as one scored in Petco Park; would you not want to adjust for that when determining awards?

If we're basing it on hypotheticals, then MCW would've been more efficient and had better %'s if he was surrounded by an actual NBA team like Oladipo was. We're not giving Oladipo credit for something he didn't do but "could've done" and not applying the same reasoning to MCW.

And anyone saying MCW doesn't deserve it because the Sixers tanked and were so terrible(Bill Simmons, for one)...Orlando won 5 more games, despite having way more talent.

 

[Knicks411]

If we're basing it on hypotheticals, then MCW would've been more efficient and had better %'s if he was surrounded by an actual NBA team like Oladipo was. We're not giving Oladipo credit for something he didn't do but "could've done" and not applying the same reasoning to MCW.

And anyone saying MCW doesn't deserve it because the Sixers tanked and were so terrible(Bill Simmons, for one)...Orlando won 5 more games, despite having way more talent.

Your first part is true, and I said it in my original post. I also said I'd vote for MCW.
I think there are a couple of different arguments here.
1) The Sixers played a faster pace than the Magic (and anyone else in the league, for that matter). That gave everyone on the team a chance to put up more numbers because there were more shots, etc put up.
2) Philly had less talent than Orlando, so MCW had more chances to put up numbers.

I'm more interested in adjusting for 1 than 2. Also worth pointing out the 2 players had similar usage rates this year; MCW was about 1% higher, but that's nothing outrageous. For 2, there is a bit of a trade off, as has been said. If MCW is asked to do less offensively, than his efficiency numbers presumably go up.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Point Guard in the NBA, as a rookie no less, is arguably the hardest position to play in the sport of basketball. Not sure if or how much Oladipo played that position this year, but its beyond nitpicking to dissect MCW's stats, and try to diminish his accomplishments.
There are simply too many variables w/ 2 different teams, 2 different supporting tasks, playing 2 different positions, under 2 different circumstances. Frankly, IMHO, I think its a ludicrous train of argument. MCW was clearly the best rookie in the NBA, not just THIS year, but in many years, playing the hardest position in basketball...as a ROOKIE.
The Magic Man had it right, & I'll take his word over some wanna-be haters in the press any day!

 

[jdubs30]

MCW probably should win it; but there''s a late push for VO and I think it'll be way closer than people think.

 

[DoctorBombay]

I disagree. ^^
Btw, MCW just won his FOURTH NBA Rookie-of-the-Month award last week.

 

[Orangeyes]

MCW & Giannis: Why The Eye Test Still Matters

 

[cpatrocks]

Let's just hope Ron Morris doesn't get a vote!

 

[Orangezoo]

I watched a lot of sixers games this year and MCW is all of ROY and then some. Phillys thin roster and lack of d hurt them but they were a tough out before gutted. When he gets that 3pt shot to start falling he could have a jkidd like nba career. Im not joking either. He doesnt have to exert himself too much to put up good numbers. Given some more scorers and a rim protector and he could have philly back in the playoff hunt next year.