Miami opens -14.5 over SU

[cuse10]

Never bet before so I don't know what I'm looking at entirely. When I just checked it said 73% Syracuse for spread and 58% Money. Not sure what it means but I would guess that the trend is 58% Syracuse to win on straight W/L bets and 73% of spread bets are picking Syracuse + 17.5?

Am I understanding that right?

Correct

 

[skurey]

Which means the big money is taking Miami if it keeps going up

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

Wow this line scares me. The obvious pick here would to take Cuse and the points, but from past experience, going with the obvious pick and you usually end up losing. 17.5 is too good to be true...

 

[TheCusian]

Vegas uses algorithms similar to Bill C’s S&P+. His numbers are not kind to our offense - I think it’s a couple of things... we kind of break some of the rules.

The line is too high, I think.

 

[TheCusian]

Lots of these advanced stats like things like “yards gained on 1st down, yards gained on 2nd, etc” to determine effeciency. We happen to be meh on 1st and 2nd down (a lot of that was running early in the year for 1 or 2 yards) - but we get 3rd downs and when we don’t we go for it on 4th and make those.

Our yards per play isn’t high either. But that gets somewhat mitigated by tempo (more plays).

Basically we’re better on O than the advanced stats think.

 

[007]

Wow this line scares me. The obvious pick here would to take Cuse and the points, but from past experience, going with the obvious pick and you usually end up losing. 17.5 is too good to be true...

There is a long standing rule of thumb in Vegas...run from the smell. If the line looks "too good be true" hold your money.