Midseason W/L projections

[Shenexon]

@ UVA - W
Pitt - W
@ FSU - L
@ LVille - L
Clemson - L
@ NCST - W
BC - W

I think we win at Virginia with offense. We may give up points to Virginia but will score more. Overall, the offense will continue to get better and I think the defensive gameplan will have to change to make us less porous. We've not been good at what we'd really like to do on defense so may have to try something different. I'm pretty sure the coaches know that we won't win if we don't change something. If the Pitt game was at Pitt, I think we'd lose that game but being at home will give us a boost, giving us a two game win streak before our toughest stretch. NC State on the road after a tough game against Clemson will be a tossup but think we beat BC to get to bowl eligibility even if we lose to NC state. I think we'll be better next year but will be better the rest of this year than we showed against USF. I gotta believe we can compete with 5 teams on the rest our schedule and go 3-2 against that group.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

I can still see 7-5 but I can now see 3-9 as well which is something I didn't think could happen before. I have been thinking since the schedule came out that UVA was a swing game and I think it is even more important now. They are our best chance at a win until BC.

 

[Full_Rebar]

6-6. I think we split the next two games, find a way to win at NC State and beat BC 9-6.

No matter what happened against LSU, I still will have to see this staff open things up against ACC opponents to believe they will do anything other than try to white-knuckle to get to 6 wins.

 

[tep624]

1-11. The wins over Wake and CMU will be taken away because they weren't convincing enough.

On a serious note though, our team looked good through 4 games despite our weaknesses, we have one stinker on the road in some pretty serious heat and now we will be lucky to win another game? I just don't get that. BC is 1-3 in their last 4 and has looked atrocious since losing their starting QB. UVA is 1-4. NC State has lost their first two conference games and has looked very pedestrian doing it. And then there are Pitt and Louisville, both peer schools and the strongest looking of the group of 5 we have left, but in no way unbeatable. If you honestly see 1 win coming from that group of 5...really?

 

[phil77]

UVA L
Pitt L
FSU L
Lou L
Clem L
NC St L
BC W

I am not trying to be pessimistic. I'm just looking at each team and asking myself, are they able to pass the ball at all? Our pass defense is atrocious against FBS. 113th in passer rating. the teams we've played are 103rd, 36th, 74th, and 41st. For those teams to average 64th in passer rating despite getting a game against the 113th ranked team, they must not be very good in their other games. We make bad teams look great passing the ball. That's what our opponents are going to do. BC is a pitiful mess so I chalk them up as a W.

If this happens and no big time injuries happen what do you do with the coach?

 

[Millhouse]

If this happens and no big time injuries happen what do you do with the coach?

refer him to a good headhunter

 

[OttoinGrotto]

3. That's the number between 3 and 12 that the random number generator picked for me. I figure it's about as accurate as anything else with this young team that we have absolutely no clue about from week to week.

Hmmmmmm so I forgot about the fact that we have a chance to win a bowl game. I changed my random generator to 13 max wins and the new number generated was 13! Kick ass.

So at this point I predict anywhere from 3-13 wins based on my computational model.

Your model has pretty solid face validity, I'll admit.

 

[KaiserUEO]

A lot of the positive vibes on the board over the last few weeks are gone after the USF blowout, so I'm curious to hear people's opinions on the rest of the year.

We're 3-2, 1-0 right now.

@ UVA - W
Pitt - L
@ FSU - L
@ LVille - W
Clemson - L
@ NCST - W
BC - W

7-5, 5-3

Yes I'm an orange homer, but I still have hope for a bowl game. I think FSU and Clemson will be by far our hardest games. The others are true toss ups IMO.

you and 90% of the board had Syracuse at 9-3, just What happened???

where the geddamn unicorns and rainbows??

so confused...

 

[K Otto XLIV]

1-11. The wins over Wake and CMU will be taken away because they weren't convincing enough.

On a serious note though, our team looked good through 4 games despite our weaknesses, we have one stinker on the road in some pretty serious heat and now we will be lucky to win another game? I just don't get that. BC is 1-3 in their last 4 and has looked atrocious since losing their starting QB. UVA is 1-4. NC State has lost their first two conference games and has looked very pedestrian doing it. And then there are Pitt and Louisville, both peer schools and the strongest looking of the group of 5 we have left, but in no way unbeatable. If you honestly see 1 win coming from that group of 5...really?

Looking at computer ranking, the UVA game is huge.

S&P+ ranking
The best team SU has beaten this year is 79th and we have lost to the 82nd ranked team. Left on the schedule is #s 1, 4, 18, 38, 50, 51 and UVA at #68. If we lose to UVA it will be very difficult to find another win until BC. I am about as down on NC State and their coaching as anyone but if SU is on a seven game losing streak do you really think we go on the road and win there?

Sagarin
Our best win is #82 and we have lost to #87. We have remaining #s 5, 17, 34, 41, 48, 67 and UVA at #80. So if we lose to UVA why would it be out of the question to lose to Pitt, FSU, Louisville, and Clemson who are all ranked well ahead of us?

 

[Rocco]

you and 90% of the board had Syracuse at 9-3, just What happened???

where the geddamn unicorns and rainbows??

so confused...

I certainly did not have them at 9-3. I said if they beat USF, they could get there, but still thought 7-8 wins is more likely.

Now the loss to USF keeps the lower end of the expectations in line.

 

[RF2044]

@ UVA - W
Pitt - W
@ FSU - L
@ LVille - L
Clemson - L
@ NCST - W
BC - W

I think we win at Virginia with offense. We may give up points to Virginia but will score more. Overall, the offense will continue to get better and I think the defensive gameplan will have to change to make us less porous. We've not been good at what we'd really like to do on defense so may have to try something different. I'm pretty sure the coaches know that we won't win if we don't change something. If the Pitt game was at Pitt, I think we'd lose that game but being at home will give us a boost, giving us a two game win streak before our toughest stretch. NC State on the road after a tough game against Clemson will be a tossup but think we beat BC to get to bowl eligibility even if we lose to NC state. I think we'll be better next year but will be better the rest of this year than we showed against USF. I gotta believe we can compete with 5 teams on the rest our schedule and go 3-2 against that group.

Agreed, Shenexon. Saturday notwithstanding, I am confident that we can amass yardage and score points with Dungey at the helm. We laid an egg down in USF. First half, we didn't do much for a variety of reasons. Then we scored a ton, only to have some turnovers disrupt our offensive production in the 4th. Bad game, team needs to put it in the rear view mirror.

But against the likes of UVa, Pitt, NC State, and BC, I believe we can score points at a much different clip than what we've been able to generate the last few seasons. The only question is: can we score enough to overcome a questionable defense. I think against several of those teams, we will be able to.

 

[TheCusian]

Looking at computer ranking, the UVA game is huge. S&P+ ranking The best team SU has beaten this year is 79th and we have lost to the 82nd ranked team. Left on the schedule is #s 1, 4, 18, 38, 50, 51 and UVA at #68. If we lose to UVA it will be very difficult to find another win until BC. I am about as down on NC State and their coaching as anyone but if SU is on a seven game losing streak do you really think we go on the road and win there? Sagarin Our best win is #82 and we have lost to #87. We have remaining #s 5, 17, 34, 41, 48, 67 and UVA at #80. So if we lose to UVA why would it be out of the question to lose to Pitt, FSU, Louisville, and Clemson who are all ranked well ahead of us?

Young players get better at a faster rate with game experience.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Agreed, Shenexon. Saturday notwithstanding, I am confident that we can amass yardage and score points with Dungey at the helm. We laid an egg down in USF. First half, we didn't do much for a variety of reasons. Then we scored a ton, only to have some turnovers disrupt our offensive production in the 4th. Bad game, team needs to put it in the rear view mirror.

But against the likes of UVa, Pitt, NC State, and BC, I believe we can score points at a much different clip than what we've been able to generate the last few seasons. The only question is: can we score enough to overcome a questionable defense. I think against several of those teams, we will be able to.

thats the 4 to find 3.

if nsewf can smack us around, i dont think anyone should be expecting lville at worse, to do any different.

got to beat uva or we have to run the 'table'.

gonna be close...

 

[Shenexon]

Agreed, Shenexon. Saturday notwithstanding, I am confident that we can amass yardage and score points with Dungey at the helm. We laid an egg down in USF. First half, we didn't do much for a variety of reasons. Then we scored a ton, only to have some turnovers disrupt our offensive production in the 4th. Bad game, team needs to put it in the rear view mirror.

But against the likes of UVa, Pitt, NC State, and BC, I believe we can score points at a much different clip than what we've been able to generate the last few seasons. The only question is: can we score enough to overcome a questionable defense. I think against several of those teams, we will be able to.

Virginia's offensive line has been hit by injuries with their two-year starting LT unlikely to play. Two of their OL starters are the backups for other positions as well. With their OL injuries, I think perhaps our DL will fare better against UVA than we did against USF, both in the running game and putting pressure on their QB. We can't give him too much time so perhaps this is a good game for SU's blitzing defense.

 

[tep624]

Looking at computer ranking, the UVA game is huge.

S&P+ ranking
The best team SU has beaten this year is 79th and we have lost to the 82nd ranked team. Left on the schedule is #s 1, 4, 18, 38, 50, 51 and UVA at #68. If we lose to UVA it will be very difficult to find another win until BC. I am about as down on NC State and their coaching as anyone but if SU is on a seven game losing streak do you really think we go on the road and win there?

Sagarin
Our best win is #82 and we have lost to #87. We have remaining #s 5, 17, 34, 41, 48, 67 and UVA at #80. So if we lose to UVA why would it be out of the question to lose to Pitt, FSU, Louisville, and Clemson who are all ranked well ahead of us?

Losing 4 of 7 still puts us in a bowl. And I think that's probably the most reasonable spot we'll land in. 5-7 to 7-5 would be my guess. I'm pretty confident that our offense will put up some points. It all hinges on our D's ability to bounce back from USF. I don't really put a lot of stock in Sagarin in relationship to the rest of our schedule because it doesn't take into account the recent year ending injuries a number of our peer schools in the conference have suffered at key positions. They don't have the same personnel they had as recently as a week ago.

 

[OrangeCrush22]

@UVA W
Pitt L
@FSU L
@UofL L
Clemson L
@NCSU W
BC W

 

[wfschrec]

Yeah Andy Robinson had a day versus Louisville 10 years ago too. BFD

So you are going to compare a 6-6 LVille team to OU? No wonder people on this board are delusional. By the way LVille didn't even make a bowl that season.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

So you are going to compare a 6-6 LVille team to OU? No wonder people on this board are delusional. By the way LVille didn't even make a bowl that season.

Who cares? He sucked and so did Robinson.

 

[Rocco]

Losing 4 of 7 still puts us in a bowl. And I think that's probably the most reasonable spot we'll land in. 5-7 to 7-5 would be my guess. I'm pretty confident that our offense will put up some points. It all hinges on our D's ability to bounce back from USF. I don't really put a lot of stock in Sagarin in relationship to the rest of our schedule because it doesn't take into account the recent year ending injuries a number of our peer schools in the conference have suffered at key positions. They don't have the same personnel they had as recently as a week ago.

Agreed. If our D is going to continue to be horrendous (which I don't think they will be much worse than they were Saturday), then Lester and this offense really need to start cranking out points. If we can't count on stops from the D, then we have simply score like 5-6 TD's/game. I think this offense is capable of putting up good numbers, but not with the conservative playcalling we saw in the 1st half against USF.

Time to pull out all the stops. There is no sense in holding anything back.

 

[Stevenson]

L

 

[qdawgg]

Young players get better at a faster rate with game experience.

Not always true and not typically true either. Many times they hit a wall trying to meet the demands of college life and playing big time college football. I think it's unfair to just assume because we have a young team they will get better exponentially faster than our opponents and be more competitive than our opponents. Theoretically if that logic is true we should have crushed USF instead of hitting a wall.

 

[RoatanCuse]

Maybe we will. That's the problem with predictions, one key injury can really change a team.

I think it's hard to predict anything right now, but I'd have a much better idea after this week's game. Which is the true midpoint anyway. If we lose, I think your scenario is correct, we beat BC. If we win, I think we can get 2 more somewhere and end with 6.

My biggest fear with the D isn't that they can't stop the pass, it's that they can't stop the run. Which will mean a lot of long days. If we could stop the run, but had a bad secondary, you can at least tee off on the QB and win enough battles with sacks to force a few punts or turnovers.

Right, Chip. Last week the run defense, or lack of, hurt us. They seemed to gain 7+ yards every time they ran the ball....especially to the corners. With our young, inexperienced secondary, how do you think the other team's OC is game planning for us after they watched the film? Are they drooling?

 

[TheCusian]

Not always true and not typically true either. Many times they hit a wall trying to meet the demands of college life and playing big time college football. I think it's unfair to just assume because we have a young team they will get better exponentially faster than our opponents and be more competitive than our opponents. Theoretically if that logic is true we should have crushed USF instead of hitting a wall.

What I was alluding to was Dungey getting better quickly enough to change the outlook of games in the 2nd half of the season. Exceptional talent at the QB spot could develop quickly enough to impact games on the back end. If the question that KingOtto raised was "if we can't beat UVa, how could we beat these other teams who are better" - than my answer is Dungey.

I should also have raised key injuries to key players. Clemson's tough no matter what, but if they lose Watson?

I did not mean to infer that it was a universal truth that all freshman get better at a fast rate.

 

[Chip]

Right, Chip. Last week the run defense, or lack of, hurt us. They seemed to gain 7+ yards every time they ran the ball...especially to the corners. With our young, inexperienced secondary, how do you think the other team's OC is game planning for us after they watched the film? Are they drooling?

My hope is that the scheme wins out, and that the D will look much better against the teams it matches up against better. I also hope that some of the "tackling" we saw Saturday will correct itself with better effort in non 85 degree Florida days. Clemson (Watson), FSU (Cook) and Louisville (Petrino) look like long days for our D. But the rest, we should look much better than the last 2 games.

Like I said, we'll know this Saturday if it's a trend we can expect to continue, or whether or not we have a real shot at 6 wins.

 

[wfschrec]

Who cares? He sucked and so did Robinson.

What are you a friggin politician? I'm glad "who cares" and "so what" is a logical argument for you. I'm making a point and FWIW Robinson was by no means an All-Conference performer but throwing for over 400 yards against a D1 defense isn't something you can do ... I'm willing to wager you suck a lot more than he does. Robinson was literally beaten to a pulp behind a really bad offensive line and never stood a chance to succeed ... he had more talent than he was able to show ...