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Minute and stat predictions

Jackson, Keita, slide Dirty to the 4.

Although Fab and Rak seem to have different skill sets I think their "apparent" skill coming into SU is very similar - both McD AA, top 2/3 centers in the country, I don't think it's crazy to think Rak has a chance to start at the 4. If not Rak then Southerland starts at the 4. I just don't see CJ starting at power forward. His scrappy play, rebounds, and garbage buckets is of extremely high value as a spark off the bench. I think JB keep CJ at the 6th man, but gets starters minutes.

Ask yourself who after Kris is the most dangerous offensive threat at the forward possition? If CJ rebounds and defends I beleive he will start and play more minutes than anyone at forward other than Kris. He rebounded better than Kris as it was last year and he has loged the most time defensively at the forward possition than any of his competition has. Being in the right place to get garbage buckets consistantly is a vastly under rated skill in basketball. Moten had that skill and used it to great effect for 4 years at SU. If
 
Jackson, Keita, slide Dirty to the 4.

Although Fab and Rak seem to have different skill sets I think their "apparent" skill coming into SU is very similar - both McD AA, top 2/3 centers in the country, I don't think it's crazy to think Rak has a chance to start at the 4. If not Rak then Southerland starts at the 4. I just don't see CJ starting at power forward. His scrappy play, rebounds, and garbage buckets is of extremely high value as a spark off the bench. I think JB keep CJ at the 6th man, but gets starters minutes.

I don't think JB has ever taken the better player and reserved him because of any value he might offer as a spark off the bench. Excepting the Fab situation last year, which I think is a large anomaly, JB starts and plays his best and most trusted players. He finds ways to get them into the lineup, not reserve them to be sparks off of the bench. Based on what I saw last season, Fair will be one of our top 4 players this year and will start, unless James makes significant progress and beats him out.
 
My thoughts:

Jardine 33 mpg, 14 ppg, 6 apg, 2.5 TO p/g
Joseph 35 mpg, 18 ppg, 7 rpg
Fair 28 mpg, 10 ppg, 6 rpg
Keita 24 mpg, 5 ppg, 6 rpg
Triche 26 mpg, 11 ppg, 3 apg

Waiters 21 mpg, 9 ppg
Melo (starts) 12 mpg, 4.5 ppg
Southerland 16 mpg, 6 ppg
Xmas 10 mpg
CW/Cooney/Jones -- scraps

When it matters rotation
Triche/Jardine/Waiters/Joseph/Keita/Fair -- that's basically it with Melo and Southerland getting occasional run.

Good projections, but your point and minute projections are too high by about 5 points and 5 minutes per game.

For points, you have 77.5 points per game plus whatever points Xmas gets in the 10 minutes you have him projected to play. Let's say Xmas is a poor scorer (10 points per 40 minutes), he would still get 2.5 points in 10 minutes. And that's without projecting anything for Carter-Williams (CW will play). So that brings the total points up to 80: too high. 75 is more realistic. So 5 points have to come out of your projections somewhere.

For minutes, you have the players averaging 205 minutes per game, without any minutes projected for CW. So at least 5 minutes have to come out of your projections, unless we play a bunch of 6 OT games against UConn.

I'd guess that your projections for Southerland are too high.
 

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