Minute and stat predictions | Syracusefan.com

Minute and stat predictions


Scout Team
Aug 29, 2011
Just got bored , here's a guess at the rotation and stats:

11 Syracuse Orange

. . . . pg Jardine .SR 30 m,. . . 11.8 p, 6.4 a, . . . . .43/38/77
. . . . sg Triche . .JR 32 m,. . . 13.0 p, 2.9 a, . . . . .48/43/84
. . . . sf Joseph . .SR 33 m,. . . 18.9 p, 4.4 r, . . . . .45/38/72
. . . . pf Fair . . . .SO 30 m, . . .13.4 p, 6.7 r, . . . . .48/32/73
. . . . c Melo . . . .SO 22 m, . . . 5.4 p, 6.0 r, . . . . . 45/--/66

pf Christmas . . FR 16 m, . . . .3.5 p, 4.0 r, . . . . . .47/--/54
sg Waiters . . . . SO 16 m, . . . .4.5 p, 1.4 a, . . . . . .45/34/87
c Keita . . . . . . . SO 12 m, . . . .2.3 p, 2.9 r, . . . . . .49/--/62
pg C-Williams .FR 7 m, . . . . .1.7 p, 1.1 a, . . . . . . 40/32/66

sf Southerland JR )
sg Jones . . . . . JR > ~100 minutes up for grabs
sg Cooney . . . .FR )
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.5 p
pretty good...the big but is will Melo improve enough to get these minutes and contribute...otherwise it throws off minutes for Keita, Christmas and CJ insofar as they play...however; a bit concerned that you slotted Fair as a PF...unless he has bulked up quite a bit...I think we may see a surprise with Christmas getting more time there as well as Keita...and Fair first of two (Waiters or MCW) off bench...
An 8.5 man rotation (radical thinking!) and one that does not include Southerland?

Will be interesting to see how much progress guys like Waiters, Keita, and Christmas have made over the summer. Waiters and Keita should be earning more PT and contributing more than 5 and 3 points, as predicted above. But who knows?

Preseason predictions are often flat wrong (remember last year: Melo was a star, Waiters was the best frosh guard in recent memory, Keita would red-shirt, Fair wouldn't play once we got to January, etc.). Especially in the front court, there is a lot of opportunity for someone to emerge in October-November.
Hard to predict other than Scoop, Brandon, Kris and CJ playing big minutes. I asume that Dion, Baye and Fab will also play alot leaving whats left for Christmas, MCW and James.
i just cant wait for bball season.. i couldnt make an educated guess over minutes
If Fab gives us a strong 20 minutes I expect him to rip down rebounds. Hes atleast 6'11 and athletic off the floor. I am going out on a limb and guessing Fab gives us 6ppg from the low post alone.

Agree, Kris could blow up to 19-21 points per game this year. It will be interesting to see if Brandon can up himself to around 14 ppg but I would be happy with 12.5 and a good shooting percentage.

I think People that don't think Southerland will see many minutes this year will be surprised.
JB went with him in March which says ALOT. He would have to shoot really poor and not rebound at all to not get minutes.
What he can do different then CJ, Keita, and Rak is..
1. spread the defense in the paint much more.
2. pick up the transition tempo from a slower methodical attack the rim.

Those two things really favor Kris, Dion, Triche and Scoop off the dribble (3 of which are our court leaders and will have the ball in their hand.)
To be a top 10 team, SU will need the Melo/Keita combination to average 10 boards and 12 points -- and provide some inside defense. Big guys tend to make a lot of progress from frosh to soph years, and both these big guys got some international experience over the summer. If we end up being all perimeter, we won't like the results.

As for the guards, expect Dion to earn starters minutes -- more on par with Brandon. JB was looking to Dion in clutch games at the end of last season (UConn in the garden; Marquette in the tournament). The talent is there.
No way in hell does Dion Waiters only score 4.5 points per game.

Agreed Albany?
I'll be surprised if MCW actually gets 7 mpg

I think the guard rotation will be closer to 30/30/20 for Scoop/BT/Dion, give or take a minute here and there for MCW. MCW will get PT before BE play, but JB will use the same guard rotation as last year, but give Dion more time.
Actually i wouldn't be surprised at all to see it closer to 28/28/24
Potential is a funny thing. The consensus is that Melo has lots of potential...but based on what I saw last year Keita was the better basketball player.
Thing is, Keita can't play 40 mpg at C. We have an abundance of guards but are thin down low
We don't need a big guy to bump from the high post on offense If we can get someone to play baseline low post basketball.

The other thing is double teams. If we can get Melo Keita Xmas Fair Southerland or Kris into the low baseline post then Fair, Keita, and Rak won't have to worry about being doubled as much at PF (and they are not great dribblers).

Melo, Keita and Fair hit a few J's last year and Rak is hitting some in Highschool. There is some face up game potential there. JB will sometimes go out and develop a players skills ahead of schedule.
I'm going on the record and saying Rakeem starts at the 4
Be the first to be wrong.

This is a freshman who has a record of not playing 100% of the time he's on the court. But most of all please count how many freshman JB has ever started, look at their ability and then tell us why Christmas should stand with that group.
Be the first to be wrong.

This is a freshman who has a record of not playing 100% of the time he's on the court. But most of all please count how many freshman JB has ever started, look at their ability and then tell us why Christmas should stand with that group.

Fab Melo. Nuff said.
First, I'm a sucker for trying to guess at the rotation/minutes/ppg breakdown prior to the season. Not sure why it fascinates me as much.

My thoughts:

Jardine 33 mpg, 14 ppg, 6 apg, 2.5 TO p/g
Joseph 35 mpg, 18 ppg, 7 rpg
Fair 28 mpg, 10 ppg, 6 rpg
Keita 24 mpg, 5 ppg, 6 rpg
Triche 26 mpg, 11 ppg, 3 apg

Waiters 21 mpg, 9 ppg
Melo (starts) 12 mpg, 4.5 ppg
Southerland 16 mpg, 6 ppg
Xmas 10 mpg
CW/Cooney/Jones -- scraps

When it matters rotation
Triche/Jardine/Waiters/Joseph/Keita/Fair -- that's basically it with Melo and Southerland getting occasional run.

Other thoughts:
-- Joseph has to rebound -- had at least eight in three of his last six games in 10-11. We need more of that (reached 8 just twice in his first 28 games)

-- Jardine's minutes go up b/c I think he ends up playing smarter. I think neither he nor Joseph will be off the floor for more than a minute or two, maybe three in close BE games.

-- I have zero faith in Melo until I see it. I thought Keita was significantly better last year and I just get the vibe he's a harder worker as well. That will translate into minutes.

-- Southerland and Waiters are the X factors -- Waiters b/c he has the potential to be a key ingredient with his ability to create his own shot, but a liability if he's not focused or feuding with JB or whatever. Southerland b/c he has such a unique skill set.
If I had to take a wild guess...
I would guess Rak will be used more when opponents are tired, missing shots, in foul trouble and we need a tough rebound. Not to get us off to early leads and to go on runs like Fair and CJ can do. I think we see CJ or Southerland starting.

If Melo is banging inside more as our second or third option to start the halfs though then maybe Rak would be a better option early. To kill opponents on the boards, but that is pretty unlikely if I had to guess. Nobody can change the chemistry of this team for the better like Melo.

With Baye, James, and Dion off the bench.

Cooney, Carter-Williams, Mookie, and Rak all might get minutes before conference play.
I see Scoop getting the most minutes of all the guards, he's taken big strides this summer. Brandon/Dion get minutes based on the matchup.
Kris takes the role of "guy who plays almost all game" and probably will exclusively play the 3.
Fair will most likely get most mins at the 4, with South in when we need to stretch the floor for 3's or he just needs to be spelled.
Fab and Baye will most likely rotate depending on the matchup as well. Both will most likely be much better than last year, and Baye actually having two hands gets me excited.

I really don't expect to see any of the freshmen get major minutes, if we didn't have 3 very good guards already, I think MCW would get a lot of time, but I can't see him unseating the incumbents. Don't see Cooney being used except maybe in situationals. Rak might get used if we have foul trouble down low. Mook will get his usual non-conference mins. Maybe he takes some of James' minutes if he worked on his D this summer.
Not sure if CJ starts the game at the 4 but I bet he finishes there...
If these numbers are close we are going to get killed on the boards. Whomever plays C the most minutes has to avg 8 or 9 or we may be toast.
Fab was the apparent best available starter. Who else was going to start at center last year?

Jackson, Keita, slide Dirty to the 4.

Although Fab and Rak seem to have different skill sets I think their "apparent" skill coming into SU is very similar - both McD AA, top 2/3 centers in the country, I don't think it's crazy to think Rak has a chance to start at the 4. If not Rak then Southerland starts at the 4. I just don't see CJ starting at power forward. His scrappy play, rebounds, and garbage buckets is of extremely high value as a spark off the bench. I think JB keep CJ at the 6th man, but gets starters minutes.

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