I don't think you're right in either case.
I think it is becoming more and more clear that for TV revenue purposes, national exposure is desired.
That is why the Big Ten and the Pac 12 have established a relationship - more exposure - more eyeballs.
Again, I think many on this board fail to recognize that the Big East is doing what a lot of other programs see as the future - national exposure with inter-regional games.
So, I don't see the BE as a "mess" and I don't see the National Conference as a "mess."
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The challenge the Big East and new whatever conference will be facing from a TV payout perspective is whether those teams/matchups generate interest to fans beyond the schools themselves: or whether the uneven quality and lack of geographical connection have a negative impact, that repels potential viewers, fans and recruits.
Will there be one or more top 10 or top 20 teams that create a benchmark for how competitive the conference is? Can the conference schools win OOC games against high profile teams.
In general, the schools of these conferences are not great universities and the key question is whether they can field great football teams.
One significant problem will be that with the major conferences playing 9 games, there will be less opportunity for matchups against high profile teams. Additionally, 9 conference games will mean the member schools will increasingly be defined by their conference matchups.
A second significant problem may be a loss of an automatic tie-in to a major top tier bowl.
A third problem is with national and regional coverage of games, the Big East will be competing with the top tier schools and conferences for viewers.
With respect to the Big East:
a) USF and UCF are huge state schools in their own distinct region of FL and should be able to attract talented players: however they will also be competing against ACC and SEC and other programs for recruits.
b) SMU and Houston are in a strong talent area, but will be recruiting against a huge number of schools.
c) RU and UConn are also large state schools, but they are likely to be hurt by the loss of northeast schools like SU and Pitt as members of the Big East, with replacements like San Diego State, Memphis and others. Beginning in 2013, Big East football will have only 2 northeast universities. How will that impact recruiting?
d) If Air Force joins with Navy, that will be a major positive.
The initial key test will be to see what kind of TV deal the new Big East ends up with, what kind of media coverage and what high profile OOC games they can play and win.