SWC75
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QUARTERBACK
In the off-season the big subject was who will replace Ryan Nassib at quarterback. I actually haven’t worried about it too much because I was confident someone good would emerge there. Nassib’s back-up was big, tall, (6-4, 220), Charley Loeb who in three years attempted 6 passes, completing 4 for 41 yards. That’s not much but it’s more than his rivals John Kinder and Terrell Hunt have done: neither has ever thrown a pass in a college game. Loeb’s template was Todd Philcox, who hardly played for three years behind Donnie McPherson but took over for him in 1988 and put up almost the same numbers and almost the same number of wins, using that one year as a stepping stone to a surprising 8 year career as a back-up in the NFL. He’s mostly a passer. Kinder, (6-2, 187) is more of a runner, fast and elusive. Hunt, (6-2, 215), is more of a combination of the two. High school films show an accurate passer, (of course the completion percentage in a high school highlight film is always 100%) with a lumbering but effective running style. No less than three new quarterbacks were recruited. The most highly rated was Zach Allen out of Texas, who drew raves at Tony Romo’s camp. Austin Wilson of Pennsylvania was also highly rated. Allen backed out of his verbal commitment when Marrone left and signed with TCU. But the new staff brought in Mitch Kimble from Illinois, whom a lot of people think could be our starting quarterback someday. But the spring battle was between Loeb, Kinder and Hunt and Hunt won that competition.
But we wound up getting a quarterback named Allen who played his high school ball in Texas anyway. His name is Drew Allen and he’s even bigger than Loeb at 6-5 230. One local reporter compared him to Ben Rothlesberger, (except this guy is polite to a fault). His films, (there are high school films and some college action on You-Tube) reveal an accurate passer with a strong arm who can also run the ball when the occasion presents itself. He was Oklahoma’s Charley Loeb for three years behind Landry Jones. But Oklahoma’s Charley Loeb figures to be better than Syracuse’s Charley Loeb. One ‘Cuse fan who lives down there said he was actually recruited to be the successor to Sam Bradford but Jones got an opening when Bradford was injured while Allen was redshirting and came back the next year as an incumbent, rather than a contender. He played well and kept the job. Meanwhile the Sooners recruited another top guy, Blake Bell, who they expected to be Jones’ successor. He was given the inside track at the job and Allen decided to transfer. It speaks well for him that the Oklahoma coach, Bob Stoops, campaigned to find him a spot where he could shine and it speaks well for Syracuse they chose here. Allen will be able to play immediately under an NCAA rule, (frankly, a loophole), that allows him to play immediately if he wishes to pursue a course of study that was not available at his old school. (A local reporter asked him what course he was taking and he had to look it up.)
It was immediately assumed that Allen would be our starting quarterback in the fall. But Hunt started out practicing with the first team. However their positions seem to have reversed themselves in recent practices, (the coaches aren’t confirming that). Ironically, Blake Bell seems to have been beaten out by an even younger quarterback at Oklahoma. My feeling is that we would be in good shape with either Allen or Hunt at quarterback. Hunt is only a sophomore so he may be our starting quarterback the next two years after this anyway- if he doesn’t get beaten out by someone else like Kimble or Wilson or AJ Long, another good prospect who will be in the 2014 recruiting class. After years of wandering in the woods to find a good quarterback, we seem to be all set at this position for years to come. Maybe we’ll even get as good as Oklahoma so our Charley Loeb will be as good as Drew Allen.
RECEIVERS
Nassib was helped greatly by having two excellent senior wide-outs last year. Alec Lemon set a school record with 72 catches and Sales was right behind with 64. They are gone and it’s not clear who will replace them or how well. Jarod West was the #3 guy with 43 catches at about the same average as Lemon and Sales, (14 per catch and a couple of scores). He’s a big receiver at 6-2 203 and isn’t a burner, more of a possession guy. But Lemon and even Sales weren’t really burners either. A normal pass route leading to a completion is a successful play. If you can keep coming up with successful plays you don’t need 80 yarders. Jeremiah Kobena and Chris Clark had more speed but Kobena, while he has excellent feet, has mediocre hands. Clark’s problem was that he has more a basketball player’s build at 5-11 160. He caught some balls early but saw little action by the end of the year. Clark had 11 catches and Kobena 6, but he had a 24 yard average on his.
People have said good things about Adrian Flemming, Quinta Funderburk, Alvin Cornelius and Ben Lewis. They all have one thing in common: they’ve never caught a pass in a college football game. Funderburk is perhaps the most intriguing. He was rated the 35th best wide receiver coming out of high school two years ago and went to Arkansas, where he red-shirted and then transferred to Syracuse. He had no special course of study to give him a loop-hole, (I think only seniors get it anyway), so he had to sit out. He hasn’t played for two seasons. People were surprised that he hardly played in the spring game, either and that he came out of the spring not being listed on the two-deep. He’s a 6-3 201 pound guy with both hands and speed and people were saying he’d be playing on Sunday someday. But he’s got to play at SU first. There’s been a suggestion that his problems were more academic than football-related. But anything that is academic-related is also football-related. Somebody needs to emerge here. One possibility: Brisley Estime, (see the special teams review), who is listed as a wide receiver and, if he can run routes and catch passes, could be a game breaker. He’s a “Wait till you see this guy” guy, (WTYSTG).
Becket Wales had a solid year last year at tight end, catching 35 balls at 11 yards a pop for two scores. But like a lot of teams we like to use more than one tight end and Wales’ partner, David Stevens, is gone. We had a big-time prospect in Ron Thompson, who like Funderburk was a “He’ll Play On Sunday” guy, (HPOS) and a WTYSTG. He was hurt last year and surprisingly moved over to the defense last spring. But perhaps it’s not surprising as Scott Shafer is a defensive coach by trade. That leaves us with Josh Paris and Jacob Green and freshman Tyler Provo, (younger brother of Nick, who was a good pass-catching TE two years ago for us) and P. J. Batten. There’s been speculation this could be a spot for Ashton Broyld to wind up in but for now he’s still an “H-back”, whatever that is.
To take advantage of having a Drew Allen, we need to give him guys who can get open and make catches and hopefully do something after that. If we can do that the defense will again be stretched and the running game can prosper as well. If not the defense can gang up on the running attack and slow it down.
RUNNING BACKS
A year ago we went into the season not knowing who our running backs would be. It was as wide open as the quarterback position this year. But Jerome Smith (6-0 226) proved to be a powerful technician of a runner, using his blockers well, making the right cuts and getting the most out of every play. He ran for 1,171 yards. Prince-Tyson Gulley (5-10 192), was shifty and had the speed to break big runs and the hands to catch passes. In the bowl win over West Virginia, Gulley had TD runs of 33 and 67 yards and caught a 12 yard pass for a third score. They make an exciting tandem but they are not all we have.
George Morris II (6-0, 203), who broke a long one in the spring game, has the most speed of any of our running backs. A Georgian, he’s an early benefit of our switch to the ACC, which will allow us to recruit faster players. He’s a potential star. Devante McFarlane, (6-0 188), looks like a natural in his high school film. He just seems to have an instinct for picking his way through a broken field.
At fullback, we have Clay Cleveland, who hardly played last year and Adonis Ameen-Moore, who was thought to be a big-time recruit when he came here a couple of years ago but whose career has been disappointing, mostly because he tried to eat his way out of it. He’s slimmed down to 5-11 238 and is our biggest weapon near the goal line.
I grew up with Larry Csonka and Jim Nance paired with Floyd Little. Jim Brown played fullback in the pros and had Bobby Mitchell and then Ernie Green line up next to him at halfback. I saw Penn State with Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell in their backfield, then the ’72 Dolphins with Csonka and frist Kiick, the Morris. Later the Steelers had Harris and Rocky Bleier. I’m a big believer in having multiple running backs and the Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside concept. Defenses don’t know which receiver is going to get the ball on a pass: why should they know which running back is going to get the ball on a run? Halfbacks can catch passes and if you need an extra receiver on third down, you can pull one of the backs at that point. It seems to me with the depth we have at running back and the question marks we have at receiver, this would be an ideal year to go back to the traditional two back backfield, with Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gully in the game at the same time, backed up by Adonis Ameen-Moore and George Morris. There have been some indications that the coaches are thinking along the same lines and I am very excited about that.
Then there’s our “H” back, which seems to mean a jack of all trades. It’s a position almost created for Ashton Broyld. In leading his high school team to the New York State title back in 2010, the looked like a high school version of Cam Newton. He’s big, (6-3, 222), but fast and powerful. He could knock tacklers on their back, zig and zag past them or just out-run them. But he could also pass. I wondered if he would be the one to become our quarterback but the coaching staff has decided he’s better used in the H position, leaving the quarterbacking for others. He spent 2011 in prep school. Last year he showed flashes of his abilities but also had a big fumble vs. Minnesota that put him in the dog house. Then he got hurt. Now he’s back and it remains to be seen just how the coaching staff will use him.I’m hopefully of seeing the halfback options being dusted off for Ashton but he’s being used more as a slot receiver. There were times I watched the powerful, fast Broyld make his moves on defenders last year and imagined that this is what it looked like when people here first set their eyes on Jimmy Brown. OK, so he’s not Cam Newton and he’s not Jim Brown. But it says something that AB gets you thinking of players like that. He was a WTYSTG last eyar and we’re still waiting. Brisley Estime is also being considered in this spot. Do we need two H backs?
OFFENSIVE LINE
Last year’s line was the key to the 6-1 run that ended the season but we’ve lost Justin Pugh, our best linemen in years and Zach Chibane. Sean Hickey was nearly as good as Pugh at the other tackle and Mackey McPherson has been a big surprise, starting out, (in people’s view), as a guy who was given a scholarship just because he was Dick MacPherson’s grandchild, becoming an undersized center and becoming one of the anchors of the line. The Sporting News even has him as their pre-season All-ACC center. He’s built himself up from 259 to 286 pounds. That scholarship looks like a good investment now. Rob Trudo looked like a coming star when he got a shot at guard last year.
But we still need to replace Pugh and Chibane. I don’t think we can really replace Pugh, who was both a great player and a leader. But we need to fill his position with someone who can get the job done. Surprisingly, his replacement is Ivan Foy, the guy Trudo displaced at guard. Foy’s been a guard all through high school and college. A recent article in the Post Standard says that he’s shown the quickness needed for the position but needs to learn the “nuances”. We’ll see. I think most of the problems on his side of the linearly last year were due to Lou Alexander, who was terrible. Chibane’s guard spot will go to Nick Robinson of Baldwinsville High School. I saw him play in some local high school games, (at the highest level we have in this state) and he was a monster, dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides. I’m kind of surprised he wound up on offense but he’s all football player and I predict he’ll be a success wherever they play him.
I’m not sure about depth here although I’ve heard good things about Jason Emerich at center and Kyle Knapp at tackle. The group may be a bit undersized. The projected starters average 291 with Foy the only 300 pounder at 318. Everybody else is under 290. But I like that. I believe linemen need to “Get thar firstest with the mostest”. Getting there first is the most important part of that. In the G-Rob era we had 320 pound linemen whose greatest skill was pulling the quarterback or running back up off the turf and saying they were sorry. The Broncos have been known for years for their 280 pound O-linemen- and for all the points they score.
OFFENSIVE STATS
Here is our offensive output in yards or points per game and the ranking among NCAA Division 1A, (BCS teams) in those years, out of 114-120 teams, since the end of the Donovan McNabb era:
YEAR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Rush 164.6 (89) 207.3 (18) 174.7 (41) 188.8 (34) 189.4 (26)
Pass 171.2 (88) 171.0 (92) 154.8 (98) 187.7 (79) 180.3 (91)
Total 335.8 (80) 378.3 (52) 329.4 (93) 376.4 (54) 369.7 (70)
Scoring 25.5 (64) 26.7 (51) 25.7 (69) 28.9 (45) 26.6 (62)
YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rush 178.7 (31) 106.5 (105) 106.9 (97) 62.7 (118) 148.7 (55)
Pass 170.1 (100) 150.8 (105) 157.1 (103) 229.2 (55) 121.5 (113)
Total 349.0 (78) 257.4 (115) 264.0 (110) 291.9 (114) 270.2 (114)
Scoring 23.9 (74) 13.8 (114) 17.04 (102) 16.4 (116) 18.1 (108)
YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rush 126.6 (87) 140.2 (76) 120.4 (95) 187.0 (40)
Pass 203.8 (78) 182.7 (91) 227.8 (65) 289.0 (29)
Total 330.4 (94) 322.9 (97) 348.2 (90) 476.0 (17)
Scoring 21.2 (78) 22.2 (93) 24.2 (84) 30.0 (55)
You can see from this how unproductive we were for years before last season’s breakthrough. Now we need to see if we can stay at that level.
Last year I started a new way of analyzing games. It’s not necessarily a better way, just a different perspective. I decided to see who “won” the most plays. Was the game won or lost by consistently
winning or losing play after play. Or was it won or lost by big gainers, by plays from scrimmage or in the kicking game, or by turnovers? This method would tell us which direction to go in. I defined a winning offensive play as one in which, on first down, the offense gets at least a third of the way to a first down, or on second down gets halfway there or on third or fourth down gets the first down. When they fail, the defense has won the play. Any scoring play is a win for the scoring team. The defense wins on any turnover. If a team is penalized, they lost the play, (unless the penalty is after the play and a first down was achieved despite it).
I retroactively computed some numbers for the 2011 season, separating out what happened in running plays and passing plays on every down:
1st down run 91-94
1st down pass 83-70 (Combined on first down 174-164)
2nd down run 58-62
2nd down pass 70-74 (Combined on second down 128-136)
3rd down run 26-24
3rd down pass 45-58 (Combined on third down 71-82)
4th down run 3-2
4th down pass 6-8 (Combined on fourth down 9-10)
Total for SU’s plays from scrimmage: 382-392
Here is the 2012 season:
1st down rushes…149-124
1st down passes…108-66 (combined 257-190)
2nd down runs……108-61
2nd down passes… 93-90 (combined 201-151)
3rd down runs……. 53-29
3rd down passes…..58-71 (combined 111-100)
4th down runs…….6-3
4th down passes…..6-4 (combined 12-7)
Total for SU’s plays from scrimmage: 581-448.
Turnovers……17-25
Penalties……..76-88
We ran the ball more on first down in 2012 and more effectively. Surprisingly, we passes less effectively on first down. Our second down runs were hugely effective in 2012 and our passes more effective than in 2011, but no where near as effective as the runs. Our third down runs were also very effective, moreso than the passes. A key stat is that we ran on third down a good deal more than in 2011, indicating we didn’t have as far to go- because we ran so well on first and second downs. My image of last year’s team, (as you can tell by the above writing) was that it used the pass to set up the run. But these numbers suggest we used the run to set up everything, which suggests maybe we can do that in 2013. That would be good because the running attack is where our known strength lies. We were much better on 3rd and 4th down in 2012 than 2011. But then, we were just much better in 2012 than 2011.
In the off-season the big subject was who will replace Ryan Nassib at quarterback. I actually haven’t worried about it too much because I was confident someone good would emerge there. Nassib’s back-up was big, tall, (6-4, 220), Charley Loeb who in three years attempted 6 passes, completing 4 for 41 yards. That’s not much but it’s more than his rivals John Kinder and Terrell Hunt have done: neither has ever thrown a pass in a college game. Loeb’s template was Todd Philcox, who hardly played for three years behind Donnie McPherson but took over for him in 1988 and put up almost the same numbers and almost the same number of wins, using that one year as a stepping stone to a surprising 8 year career as a back-up in the NFL. He’s mostly a passer. Kinder, (6-2, 187) is more of a runner, fast and elusive. Hunt, (6-2, 215), is more of a combination of the two. High school films show an accurate passer, (of course the completion percentage in a high school highlight film is always 100%) with a lumbering but effective running style. No less than three new quarterbacks were recruited. The most highly rated was Zach Allen out of Texas, who drew raves at Tony Romo’s camp. Austin Wilson of Pennsylvania was also highly rated. Allen backed out of his verbal commitment when Marrone left and signed with TCU. But the new staff brought in Mitch Kimble from Illinois, whom a lot of people think could be our starting quarterback someday. But the spring battle was between Loeb, Kinder and Hunt and Hunt won that competition.
But we wound up getting a quarterback named Allen who played his high school ball in Texas anyway. His name is Drew Allen and he’s even bigger than Loeb at 6-5 230. One local reporter compared him to Ben Rothlesberger, (except this guy is polite to a fault). His films, (there are high school films and some college action on You-Tube) reveal an accurate passer with a strong arm who can also run the ball when the occasion presents itself. He was Oklahoma’s Charley Loeb for three years behind Landry Jones. But Oklahoma’s Charley Loeb figures to be better than Syracuse’s Charley Loeb. One ‘Cuse fan who lives down there said he was actually recruited to be the successor to Sam Bradford but Jones got an opening when Bradford was injured while Allen was redshirting and came back the next year as an incumbent, rather than a contender. He played well and kept the job. Meanwhile the Sooners recruited another top guy, Blake Bell, who they expected to be Jones’ successor. He was given the inside track at the job and Allen decided to transfer. It speaks well for him that the Oklahoma coach, Bob Stoops, campaigned to find him a spot where he could shine and it speaks well for Syracuse they chose here. Allen will be able to play immediately under an NCAA rule, (frankly, a loophole), that allows him to play immediately if he wishes to pursue a course of study that was not available at his old school. (A local reporter asked him what course he was taking and he had to look it up.)
It was immediately assumed that Allen would be our starting quarterback in the fall. But Hunt started out practicing with the first team. However their positions seem to have reversed themselves in recent practices, (the coaches aren’t confirming that). Ironically, Blake Bell seems to have been beaten out by an even younger quarterback at Oklahoma. My feeling is that we would be in good shape with either Allen or Hunt at quarterback. Hunt is only a sophomore so he may be our starting quarterback the next two years after this anyway- if he doesn’t get beaten out by someone else like Kimble or Wilson or AJ Long, another good prospect who will be in the 2014 recruiting class. After years of wandering in the woods to find a good quarterback, we seem to be all set at this position for years to come. Maybe we’ll even get as good as Oklahoma so our Charley Loeb will be as good as Drew Allen.
RECEIVERS
Nassib was helped greatly by having two excellent senior wide-outs last year. Alec Lemon set a school record with 72 catches and Sales was right behind with 64. They are gone and it’s not clear who will replace them or how well. Jarod West was the #3 guy with 43 catches at about the same average as Lemon and Sales, (14 per catch and a couple of scores). He’s a big receiver at 6-2 203 and isn’t a burner, more of a possession guy. But Lemon and even Sales weren’t really burners either. A normal pass route leading to a completion is a successful play. If you can keep coming up with successful plays you don’t need 80 yarders. Jeremiah Kobena and Chris Clark had more speed but Kobena, while he has excellent feet, has mediocre hands. Clark’s problem was that he has more a basketball player’s build at 5-11 160. He caught some balls early but saw little action by the end of the year. Clark had 11 catches and Kobena 6, but he had a 24 yard average on his.
People have said good things about Adrian Flemming, Quinta Funderburk, Alvin Cornelius and Ben Lewis. They all have one thing in common: they’ve never caught a pass in a college football game. Funderburk is perhaps the most intriguing. He was rated the 35th best wide receiver coming out of high school two years ago and went to Arkansas, where he red-shirted and then transferred to Syracuse. He had no special course of study to give him a loop-hole, (I think only seniors get it anyway), so he had to sit out. He hasn’t played for two seasons. People were surprised that he hardly played in the spring game, either and that he came out of the spring not being listed on the two-deep. He’s a 6-3 201 pound guy with both hands and speed and people were saying he’d be playing on Sunday someday. But he’s got to play at SU first. There’s been a suggestion that his problems were more academic than football-related. But anything that is academic-related is also football-related. Somebody needs to emerge here. One possibility: Brisley Estime, (see the special teams review), who is listed as a wide receiver and, if he can run routes and catch passes, could be a game breaker. He’s a “Wait till you see this guy” guy, (WTYSTG).
Becket Wales had a solid year last year at tight end, catching 35 balls at 11 yards a pop for two scores. But like a lot of teams we like to use more than one tight end and Wales’ partner, David Stevens, is gone. We had a big-time prospect in Ron Thompson, who like Funderburk was a “He’ll Play On Sunday” guy, (HPOS) and a WTYSTG. He was hurt last year and surprisingly moved over to the defense last spring. But perhaps it’s not surprising as Scott Shafer is a defensive coach by trade. That leaves us with Josh Paris and Jacob Green and freshman Tyler Provo, (younger brother of Nick, who was a good pass-catching TE two years ago for us) and P. J. Batten. There’s been speculation this could be a spot for Ashton Broyld to wind up in but for now he’s still an “H-back”, whatever that is.
To take advantage of having a Drew Allen, we need to give him guys who can get open and make catches and hopefully do something after that. If we can do that the defense will again be stretched and the running game can prosper as well. If not the defense can gang up on the running attack and slow it down.
RUNNING BACKS
A year ago we went into the season not knowing who our running backs would be. It was as wide open as the quarterback position this year. But Jerome Smith (6-0 226) proved to be a powerful technician of a runner, using his blockers well, making the right cuts and getting the most out of every play. He ran for 1,171 yards. Prince-Tyson Gulley (5-10 192), was shifty and had the speed to break big runs and the hands to catch passes. In the bowl win over West Virginia, Gulley had TD runs of 33 and 67 yards and caught a 12 yard pass for a third score. They make an exciting tandem but they are not all we have.
George Morris II (6-0, 203), who broke a long one in the spring game, has the most speed of any of our running backs. A Georgian, he’s an early benefit of our switch to the ACC, which will allow us to recruit faster players. He’s a potential star. Devante McFarlane, (6-0 188), looks like a natural in his high school film. He just seems to have an instinct for picking his way through a broken field.
At fullback, we have Clay Cleveland, who hardly played last year and Adonis Ameen-Moore, who was thought to be a big-time recruit when he came here a couple of years ago but whose career has been disappointing, mostly because he tried to eat his way out of it. He’s slimmed down to 5-11 238 and is our biggest weapon near the goal line.
I grew up with Larry Csonka and Jim Nance paired with Floyd Little. Jim Brown played fullback in the pros and had Bobby Mitchell and then Ernie Green line up next to him at halfback. I saw Penn State with Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell in their backfield, then the ’72 Dolphins with Csonka and frist Kiick, the Morris. Later the Steelers had Harris and Rocky Bleier. I’m a big believer in having multiple running backs and the Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside concept. Defenses don’t know which receiver is going to get the ball on a pass: why should they know which running back is going to get the ball on a run? Halfbacks can catch passes and if you need an extra receiver on third down, you can pull one of the backs at that point. It seems to me with the depth we have at running back and the question marks we have at receiver, this would be an ideal year to go back to the traditional two back backfield, with Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gully in the game at the same time, backed up by Adonis Ameen-Moore and George Morris. There have been some indications that the coaches are thinking along the same lines and I am very excited about that.
Then there’s our “H” back, which seems to mean a jack of all trades. It’s a position almost created for Ashton Broyld. In leading his high school team to the New York State title back in 2010, the looked like a high school version of Cam Newton. He’s big, (6-3, 222), but fast and powerful. He could knock tacklers on their back, zig and zag past them or just out-run them. But he could also pass. I wondered if he would be the one to become our quarterback but the coaching staff has decided he’s better used in the H position, leaving the quarterbacking for others. He spent 2011 in prep school. Last year he showed flashes of his abilities but also had a big fumble vs. Minnesota that put him in the dog house. Then he got hurt. Now he’s back and it remains to be seen just how the coaching staff will use him.I’m hopefully of seeing the halfback options being dusted off for Ashton but he’s being used more as a slot receiver. There were times I watched the powerful, fast Broyld make his moves on defenders last year and imagined that this is what it looked like when people here first set their eyes on Jimmy Brown. OK, so he’s not Cam Newton and he’s not Jim Brown. But it says something that AB gets you thinking of players like that. He was a WTYSTG last eyar and we’re still waiting. Brisley Estime is also being considered in this spot. Do we need two H backs?
OFFENSIVE LINE
Last year’s line was the key to the 6-1 run that ended the season but we’ve lost Justin Pugh, our best linemen in years and Zach Chibane. Sean Hickey was nearly as good as Pugh at the other tackle and Mackey McPherson has been a big surprise, starting out, (in people’s view), as a guy who was given a scholarship just because he was Dick MacPherson’s grandchild, becoming an undersized center and becoming one of the anchors of the line. The Sporting News even has him as their pre-season All-ACC center. He’s built himself up from 259 to 286 pounds. That scholarship looks like a good investment now. Rob Trudo looked like a coming star when he got a shot at guard last year.
But we still need to replace Pugh and Chibane. I don’t think we can really replace Pugh, who was both a great player and a leader. But we need to fill his position with someone who can get the job done. Surprisingly, his replacement is Ivan Foy, the guy Trudo displaced at guard. Foy’s been a guard all through high school and college. A recent article in the Post Standard says that he’s shown the quickness needed for the position but needs to learn the “nuances”. We’ll see. I think most of the problems on his side of the linearly last year were due to Lou Alexander, who was terrible. Chibane’s guard spot will go to Nick Robinson of Baldwinsville High School. I saw him play in some local high school games, (at the highest level we have in this state) and he was a monster, dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides. I’m kind of surprised he wound up on offense but he’s all football player and I predict he’ll be a success wherever they play him.
I’m not sure about depth here although I’ve heard good things about Jason Emerich at center and Kyle Knapp at tackle. The group may be a bit undersized. The projected starters average 291 with Foy the only 300 pounder at 318. Everybody else is under 290. But I like that. I believe linemen need to “Get thar firstest with the mostest”. Getting there first is the most important part of that. In the G-Rob era we had 320 pound linemen whose greatest skill was pulling the quarterback or running back up off the turf and saying they were sorry. The Broncos have been known for years for their 280 pound O-linemen- and for all the points they score.
OFFENSIVE STATS
Here is our offensive output in yards or points per game and the ranking among NCAA Division 1A, (BCS teams) in those years, out of 114-120 teams, since the end of the Donovan McNabb era:
YEAR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Rush 164.6 (89) 207.3 (18) 174.7 (41) 188.8 (34) 189.4 (26)
Pass 171.2 (88) 171.0 (92) 154.8 (98) 187.7 (79) 180.3 (91)
Total 335.8 (80) 378.3 (52) 329.4 (93) 376.4 (54) 369.7 (70)
Scoring 25.5 (64) 26.7 (51) 25.7 (69) 28.9 (45) 26.6 (62)
YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rush 178.7 (31) 106.5 (105) 106.9 (97) 62.7 (118) 148.7 (55)
Pass 170.1 (100) 150.8 (105) 157.1 (103) 229.2 (55) 121.5 (113)
Total 349.0 (78) 257.4 (115) 264.0 (110) 291.9 (114) 270.2 (114)
Scoring 23.9 (74) 13.8 (114) 17.04 (102) 16.4 (116) 18.1 (108)
YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rush 126.6 (87) 140.2 (76) 120.4 (95) 187.0 (40)
Pass 203.8 (78) 182.7 (91) 227.8 (65) 289.0 (29)
Total 330.4 (94) 322.9 (97) 348.2 (90) 476.0 (17)
Scoring 21.2 (78) 22.2 (93) 24.2 (84) 30.0 (55)
You can see from this how unproductive we were for years before last season’s breakthrough. Now we need to see if we can stay at that level.
Last year I started a new way of analyzing games. It’s not necessarily a better way, just a different perspective. I decided to see who “won” the most plays. Was the game won or lost by consistently
winning or losing play after play. Or was it won or lost by big gainers, by plays from scrimmage or in the kicking game, or by turnovers? This method would tell us which direction to go in. I defined a winning offensive play as one in which, on first down, the offense gets at least a third of the way to a first down, or on second down gets halfway there or on third or fourth down gets the first down. When they fail, the defense has won the play. Any scoring play is a win for the scoring team. The defense wins on any turnover. If a team is penalized, they lost the play, (unless the penalty is after the play and a first down was achieved despite it).
I retroactively computed some numbers for the 2011 season, separating out what happened in running plays and passing plays on every down:
1st down run 91-94
1st down pass 83-70 (Combined on first down 174-164)
2nd down run 58-62
2nd down pass 70-74 (Combined on second down 128-136)
3rd down run 26-24
3rd down pass 45-58 (Combined on third down 71-82)
4th down run 3-2
4th down pass 6-8 (Combined on fourth down 9-10)
Total for SU’s plays from scrimmage: 382-392
Here is the 2012 season:
1st down rushes…149-124
1st down passes…108-66 (combined 257-190)
2nd down runs……108-61
2nd down passes… 93-90 (combined 201-151)
3rd down runs……. 53-29
3rd down passes…..58-71 (combined 111-100)
4th down runs…….6-3
4th down passes…..6-4 (combined 12-7)
Total for SU’s plays from scrimmage: 581-448.
Turnovers……17-25
Penalties……..76-88
We ran the ball more on first down in 2012 and more effectively. Surprisingly, we passes less effectively on first down. Our second down runs were hugely effective in 2012 and our passes more effective than in 2011, but no where near as effective as the runs. Our third down runs were also very effective, moreso than the passes. A key stat is that we ran on third down a good deal more than in 2011, indicating we didn’t have as far to go- because we ran so well on first and second downs. My image of last year’s team, (as you can tell by the above writing) was that it used the pass to set up the run. But these numbers suggest we used the run to set up everything, which suggests maybe we can do that in 2013. That would be good because the running attack is where our known strength lies. We were much better on 3rd and 4th down in 2012 than 2011. But then, we were just much better in 2012 than 2011.
